How to return to contention in 2017

adambr2

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With A-Rodg still years away from retirement, a rebuild in Green Bay surely isn't in the cards . So we need to figure out what's wrong, and fix it quickly to get us back to contention. I'm not going to speculate on which coaches/GMs will return and which won't. I'll let the powers that be figure that out - though I have little doubt we'll see some new faces in some positions next year . This is just for putting on our own GM hat and coming up with a plan to return the Packers to glory in 2017. Here's mine :

1). Cuts/let walk: Shields, Peppers, Datone Jones, Starks, Hyde, Tretter

Cutting Shields is a very difficult decision, and it's a medical one, not a performance one. This secondary has struggled without him. That said, even if he's medically cleared, we simply can't count on him anymore and it might be in his best interests to walk away from football. That will save 9M. Starks simply isn't worth his 3.5M cap hit and should be moved on from as well. There's no reason to bring back Peppers, Hyde, or Datone. I have a very difficult time letting Tretter walk, but I think he's going to get overpaid and we have a near equally serviceable center in Linsley. Other minor players will also be let go but this covers the main ones .

2. ) Free agency: Re-sign Nick Perry, TJ Lang, Jared Cook, sign Alshon Jeffrey. Sign Eddie Lacy to 1 year 'prove it' deal.

This is obviously a tremendous splash for a team normally very conservative in free agency. I simply think it's time . The bargain bin shopping is not working right now. We desperately need a young offensive weapon, and Jeffrey fits the mold. It won't be cheap, but the injuries and now the PED suspension should keep him from breaking the bank entirely. Nonetheless, he's a rare talent. I have a tough time ******* Perry's value. He started out strong, but lately hasn't showed up as much . I'd look to lock him up on a 3 year deal prior to free agency , if possible.

I was really torn on Lang and Tretter. I'd be happy to keep either of the 2, but if Tretter would be the one signed , I think he'd have to move to guard. Lacy was another tough one, especially with the injury . There's no denying he was running well before the injury. If the season continues to spiral away, I'd shut him down and give him the entire offseason for his ankle to recover . I think he might be receptive to returning on a 1 year deal for $3-5M to try to re-establish his value in a healthy year. Cook should be obtainable for a similar amount with a similar strategy.

3. Draft targets: CB, LB, OL, WR, RB

There are plenty of needs, and some depend on departures, but CB has to top that list, especially if Shields departs. The good news is, this draft class is loaded with great corners. It's possible we could bypass corner in the 1st and still get a 1st round talent corner in the 2nd. I'm less concerned with what the position is in the 1st as I am with hitting a home run with the pick. We need it. This will likely be our highest pick since 2009. Depending on QB needs around the league and interest , I'd also be open to shopping Brett Hundley for a high draft pick.

If we draft at say #10, and can land a low 2nd/high 3rd for Hundley, and get a 4th or 5th round comp for Hayward, we should be in good shape. We need at least 2 corners in this deep draft .

Just to spitball, if we took Marshon Lattimore in the 1st, or Jourdan Lewis in the 2nd, and surrounded these picks with other talent at positions of need already mentioned, combined these with the FA moves suggested, I think we'd be in good position to prove this year was a fluke.
 

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The Packers are in steep decline because of bad drafts and poor player development. How often are we seeing guys come in and show potential and then regress. The examples are numerous especially in the secondary. Without a change at GM the Packers will not turn it around. in fact they will continue to careen into the dust bin. We need a more active GM and perhaps a new head coach. I think MM has lost this team but most of the problems are lack of athleticism. We need to upgrade at RB, CB, LB, and get depth at guard and TE.
 

sschind

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With A-Rodg still years away from retirement, a rebuild in Green Bay surely isn't in the cards . So we need to figure out what's wrong, and fix it quickly to get us back to contention. I'm not going to speculate on which coaches/GMs will return and which won't. I'll let the powers that be figure that out - though I have little doubt we'll see some new faces in some positions next year . This is just for putting on our own GM hat and coming up with a plan to return the Packers to glory in 2017. Here's mine :

1). Cuts/let walk: Shields, Peppers, Datone Jones, Starks, Hyde, Tretter

Cutting Shields is a very difficult decision, and it's a medical one, not a performance one. This secondary has struggled without him. That said, even if he's medically cleared, we simply can't count on him anymore and it might be in his best interests to walk away from football. That will save 9M. Starks simply isn't worth his 3.5M cap hit and should be moved on from as well. There's no reason to bring back Peppers, Hyde, or Datone. I have a very difficult time letting Tretter walk, but I think he's going to get overpaid and we have a near equally serviceable center in Linsley. Other minor players will also be let go but this covers the main ones .

2. ) Free agency: Re-sign Nick Perry, TJ Lang, Jared Cook, sign Alshon Jeffrey. Sign Eddie Lacy to 1 year 'prove it' deal.

This is obviously a tremendous splash for a team normally very conservative in free agency. I simply think it's time . The bargain bin shopping is not working right now. We desperately need a young offensive weapon, and Jeffrey fits the mold. It won't be cheap, but the injuries and now the PED suspension should keep him from breaking the bank entirely. Nonetheless, he's a rare talent. I have a tough time ******* Perry's value. He started out strong, but lately hasn't showed up as much . I'd look to lock him up on a 3 year deal prior to free agency , if possible.

I was really torn on Lang and Tretter. I'd be happy to keep either of the 2, but if Tretter would be the one signed , I think he'd have to move to guard. Lacy was another tough one, especially with the injury . There's no denying he was running well before the injury. If the season continues to spiral away, I'd shut him down and give him the entire offseason for his ankle to recover . I think he might be receptive to returning on a 1 year deal for $3-5M to try to re-establish his value in a healthy year. Cook should be obtainable for a similar amount with a similar strategy.

3. Draft targets: CB, LB, OL, WR, RB

There are plenty of needs, and some depend on departures, but CB has to top that list, especially if Shields departs. The good news is, this draft class is loaded with great corners. It's possible we could bypass corner in the 1st and still get a 1st round talent corner in the 2nd. I'm less concerned with what the position is in the 1st as I am with hitting a home run with the pick. We need it. This will likely be our highest pick since 2009. Depending on QB needs around the league and interest , I'd also be open to shopping Brett Hundley for a high draft pick.

If we draft at say #10, and can land a low 2nd/high 3rd for Hundley, and get a 4th or 5th round comp for Hayward, we should be in good shape. We need at least 2 corners in this deep draft .

Just to spitball, if we took Marshon Lattimore in the 1st, or Jourdan Lewis in the 2nd, and surrounded these picks with other talent at positions of need already mentioned, combined these with the FA moves suggested, I think we'd be in good position to prove this year was a fluke.


Can't really argue with much except I think your expectations of a low 2nd or high 3rd for Hundley are a bit much Low 4th would be all I think we could expect and I don't think that would happen. I don't know if it would be worth trading him for that. If we could get some team to pony up a 2nd rounder I'd do it in a heartbeat.
 
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adambr2

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I don't see Hundley as being expendable right now. We kinda need him on the team.

Why ? Rodgers will be here a long while and Hundley will be moving on to a new opportunity in 2 years . In the meantime, if Rodgers gets hurt, yeah we're pretty screwed, but we kind of are anyway. We need good players now.

I'm certainly not talking about giving him away but given all our needs if we got an offer for any 2nd for him I wouldn't even hesitate.
 

swhitset

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Why ? Rodgers will be here a long while and Hundley will be moving on to a new opportunity in 2 years . In the meantime, if Rodgers gets hurt, yeah we're pretty screwed, but we kind of are anyway. We need good players now.

I'm certainly not talking about giving him away but given all our needs if we got an offer for any 2nd for him I wouldn't even hesitate.
I would be amazed if any team gave up a 2nd for Hundley
 

rodell330

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I agree with everything you said except Barclay needs to be cut last year. I think they need to go ahead and cut Brian Bulaga as well. Spriggs is going to be solid somewhere on that line. Bulaga just never lived up to his draft status. Spriggs cheaper and a healthier looks just as good.
 
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I agree with everything you said except Barclay needs to be cut last year. I think they need to go ahead and cut Brian Bulaga as well. Spriggs is going to be solid somewhere on that line. Bulaga just never lived up to his draft status. Spriggs cheaper and a healthier looks just as good.

Bulaga has been healthy all season after losing some weight this offseason and has performed on a high level. There's no reason to release him.
 

JBlood

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With only two outside linebackers under contract for the 2017 season it might be the right time to change to a 4-3 mext offseason.

I don't care what scheme they play, but would suggest tackling a become part of it. Dom seems to think the art of tackling is secondary to "the big play".
 
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I would be amazed if any team gave up a 2nd for Hundley
The Packers were not screwed when Flynn came in and held the fort with a 2-2-1 record.

You need a decent backup who gives you a chance to beat mediocre teams.
 
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HardRightEdge

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That's shocking. If Nick Perry goes, we'll be in trouble.
I'm fairly confident Perry could play well as a DE in a 4-3. Matthews would be the odd man out in 4-3, and his contract means he has not trade value.

Cap savings if released: $11.1 million.
 
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adambr2

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I would be amazed if any team gave up a 2nd for Hundley

I think it's very difficult to gauge the value of young, backup QBs. I agree it might be a long shot. His lack of reps this last training camp didn't help matters.

That said, he's young and cheap and it only takes one team to be sold on him.

I'm not saying he would get a 2nd, but I'm saying it's possible. I remember back in August , one of the Packer writers, can't remember if it was Vic, Mike, Tom Silverstein or who, but they were asked in a chat by a fan if they would give up Brett Hundley if someone offered a 1st and the writer replied, 'No.'
 
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adambr2

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The Packers were not screwed when Flynn came in and held the fort with a 2-2-1 record.

You need a decent backup who gives you a chance to beat mediocre teams.

So go get Flynn if Hundley is traded. He's sitting at home. We didn't have him as a backup QB when Rodgers went down in 2013, we plucked him off the street .

Look, I agree having a solid backup QB can save your season if something happens to your QB, but if something doesn't , they add zero value. Solid backup QBs are a good insurance policy for an already good team. We are not presently a good team and thus I tend to look at the backup QB position as more of a luxury .

At this point with so many holes on the roster I'm more concerned about surrounding Rodgers with the right supporting cast than who will come in if he ever goes down .
 
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adambr2

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I'll throw my bit in: scrap the 3-4 defense and bring in a new coordinator.

Curious as to whether Lovie Smith would leave his HC post at University of Illinois to run the defense here as our DC replacing Capers because he'd be an ideal fit if we wanted to transition back to a 4-3.
 

Half Empty

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I think it's very difficult to gauge the value of young, backup QBs. I agree it might be a long shot. His lack of reps this last training camp didn't help matters.

That said, he's young and cheap and it only takes one team to be sold on him.

I'm not saying he would get a 2nd, but I'm saying it's possible. I remember back in August , one of the Packer writers, can't remember if it was Vic, Mike, Tom Silverstein or who, but they were asked in a chat by a fan if they would give up Brett Hundley if someone offered a 1st and the writer replied, 'No.'

I'd be all over an offer for a 2nd for Hundley. However, you're a GM, and someone tells you they've got a 5th round draft choice that they want a 2nd for, backed up by this resume. Do you even consider it? http://www.nfl.com/player/bretthundley/2552588/profile
 
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adambr2

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I'd be all over an offer for a 2nd for Hundley. However, you're a GM, and someone tells you they've got a 5th round draft choice that they want a 2nd for, backed up by this resume. Do you even consider it? http://www.nfl.com/player/bretthundley/2552588/profile

It depends on a lot of factors. QB market, cap situation of the team, performance by Hundley if he gets opportunities down the stretch at all. Among other things .

Value relative to draft spot is very fluid. Weeks before the draft Hundley was seen as a day two or even late day one pick. He fell, but that doesn't lock him into 5th round value, especially as a QB.

NFL history is loaded with high picks given up for teams that took a chance on finding their franchise QB. In no way was 9th round pick Brad Johnson worth a top 10 overall pick for the Vikings in the late 90s, but that's exactly what they got. Nor did Kevin Kolb's resume reflect anything close to the value they got for him (a high 2nd round pick and a 1st round CB in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.)
 
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RepStar15

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I like everything besides Tretter walking. He is so versitale on the line and not just a center. We need a guy that can play multiple positions up front like that protecting our QB.
 
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HardRightEdge

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In looking at 2017, you have to start with cap commitments.

Currently, cap commitments for 2017 total $139.3 million, 10th. highest in the league. And that covers only 37 players. This more than the current top 51 contracts for 2016. Ouch.

Assuming $166.0 mil cap for 2017 (as projected by overthecap.com) and the current $9.9 mil carryover (which could shrink if more guys go on IR, that yields $166.0 + $9.9 - $139.3 = $36.6 mil in cap space.

Assuming, for the purposes of illustration, all players under contract for 2017 are retained, the following minimum necessary cap subtractions are required:

- $3 mil for the top 2 draft picks; maybe more if the Packers move higher with more losses. That brings the player count to 39 and the available cap to $33.6 mil.

- If the additional 14 players to fill out the roster were minimum salary rookies (which is hard to envision), that's $465,000 x 14 = a $6.5 mil cap subtraction. That brings available cap to $27.1 mil.

- The practice squad takes up about $1 mil in cap; to start the season at least $3 mil (preferably $5 mil) should be kept in reserve for IR replacements. Using $3 mil, that takes available cap down to $24.1 mil.

And that $24.1 mil, of course, has no subtractions for signing any free agents. That's not much.

Let's assume only Perry and Cook are resigned, with Spriggs taking over at OG. We'll need to see another game or two from Spriggs, but his play last week was a bit of an eye opener. With Lang hitting 30 years old while struggling with injuries this season and last, he might well go the way of Sitton.

I would put a conservative figure of $8 mil cap hit for Perry and Cook, with a meaningful Perry signing bonus stretched out over the term of the contract for early relief and Cook on a shorter deal. The way things seem to be going, 4 years, $40 mil may not be enough for Perry.
 

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