Bakhtiari to Jets?

tynimiller

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I get all the stuff about likely to be earned and what not...I guess my question was more would the NFLPA be ok with such a contract. I can't think of an instance when a player had a contract like this? Roster bonuses yes, but not to that extent

Yeah, if I was paying an agent whatever percentage I would expect them to make me more $ than I could get by myself. Endorsements could obviously be a part of that.

I just think it was a neat idea for the fans to step up and get something done to keep a guy like Aaron Jones on the team next season. Im sure there's plenty of Packers fans that own buisness' etc. And it would be a way to get around the salary cap within the rules.

Actually looking at Jones' contract...he has a 2024 cap hit of 17.5 m and a deadcap number of about 12.5 m. With only 5 million to be saved against the cap. In my opinion it wouldn't be worth cutting him for the savings. In fact I would be in favor of extending him to lower that cap number and allow him to finish his career in GB with Love

Couple things...or thoughts.

Such bonuses as described for a per game to that degree with Bahk could have massive cap implications. Unless the league changed there are two types of incentives you can place in a contract and they hit the different caps:

Likely to be earned incentives (LTBE) are ones that the player reached in the prior year...so say you signed Bakh to a whole new deal...placing a $250,000 incentive if he reaches playing in 12 games would not fall into a LTBE because he didn't achieve it previously. However, say we decided to go out and sign Michael Pittman to a contract. He put up 1152 yards and 109 receptions. We could include in his contract $150,000 LTBE incentive for 1,000 yards and 100 receptions....now $300,000 would be calculated against that year's CAP (in this example 2024). IF he didn't achieve the receptions but met the yards, $150,000 would be credited on to the next year's CAP figure for the team.

Then there are Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) and these are incentives which the player did not earn in the previous year - this monetary amount doesn't hit in that year's cap but the next years cap. So sticking with the Pittman example...say we tell him we will give you $250,000 incentive if you hit 1,300 and if you get 120 receptions. Both of those figures are things he did not do in 2023. So IF he were to meet both of those figures, half a million would come off our 2025 cap number.

This is why incentives are a nightmare, they can cause MASSIVE cap implications and not just in the present but in the future....this and the fact players want money not a chance at money is why while we have incentives in many contracts they are not millions and millions typically. Honestly, Love's play this year and hitting some of his likely NLTBE figures is lowering our cap space in 2024.



As for Jones, you have to look at his dead money...due to void years. Yes his dead cap is around 12 and his hit is around 17....but it isn't that clean. There is $6.6M already shoved into years he isn't under contract...so the wiggle room of doing an extension, saving us money and likely giving him some more guarantee (him and his agent ain't doing an extension for free lol) is limited. Arguably you could spread a couple million a year out in a two or three year extension, use one or two void years and keep shave his hit to like $13M or $14M next year.....maybe...and likely have to have a hit of $10+M in 2025 and close to that in 2026 to make it work.....which remind ourselves he is going to be 32 by then.
 

tynimiller

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With Jones I keep trying to shove into my head the concept of "the heart makes bad deals." I'd give Aaron Jones the moon, and truthfully I think the best discussion with Jones is AFTER the draft if I'm Russ and Gute IF you are going to talk about anything with him (many especially @Dantés I believe have laid out best plan may be just ride the one more year out as is). IF you are though wait to see how the draft goes for you...maybe we grab a guy we like early (a Brooks, Benson, Lloyd, Irving type...) but also see a guy our group is a big fan of fall to the sixth perhaps and we actually add two backs we love to the house, Wilson coming back for sure....well now we have a path where we can tell Jones let's discuss if an extension makes sense - make him one of the two or so cornerstone veterans you want on a roster even with the youth. His snap count of dependency will hopefully drop which should elongate the time he can play at a high level for us.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Couple things...or thoughts.

Such bonuses as described for a per game to that degree with Bahk could have massive cap implications. Unless the league changed there are two types of incentives you can place in a contract and they hit the different caps:

Likely to be earned incentives (LTBE) are ones that the player reached in the prior year...so say you signed Bakh to a whole new deal...placing a $250,000 incentive if he reaches playing in 12 games would not fall into a LTBE because he didn't achieve it previously. However, say we decided to go out and sign Michael Pittman to a contract. He put up 1152 yards and 109 receptions. We could include in his contract $150,000 LTBE incentive for 1,000 yards and 100 receptions....now $300,000 would be calculated against that year's CAP (in this example 2024). IF he didn't achieve the receptions but met the yards, $150,000 would be credited on to the next year's CAP figure for the team.

Then there are Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE) and these are incentives which the player did not earn in the previous year - this monetary amount doesn't hit in that year's cap but the next years cap. So sticking with the Pittman example...say we tell him we will give you $250,000 incentive if you hit 1,300 and if you get 120 receptions. Both of those figures are things he did not do in 2023. So IF he were to meet both of those figures, half a million would come off our 2025 cap number.

This is why incentives are a nightmare, they can cause MASSIVE cap implications and not just in the present but in the future....this and the fact players want money not a chance at money is why while we have incentives in many contracts they are not millions and millions typically. Honestly, Love's play this year and hitting some of his likely NLTBE figures is lowering our cap space in 2024.



As for Jones, you have to look at his dead money...due to void years. Yes his dead cap is around 12 and his hit is around 17....but it isn't that clean. There is $6.6M already shoved into years he isn't under contract...so the wiggle room of doing an extension, saving us money and likely giving him some more guarantee (him and his agent ain't doing an extension for free lol) is limited. Arguably you could spread a couple million a year out in a two or three year extension, use one or two void years and keep shave his hit to like $13M or $14M next year.....maybe...and likely have to have a hit of $10+M in 2025 and close to that in 2026 to make it work.....which remind ourselves he is going to be 32 by then.
Good explanation, thanks for taking the time. I am a fan that has continued to beat the "incentive drum" for years. While I am aware of the differences between LTBE and NLTBE incentives, your example made me think about running a good portion of your team on "incentive based" contracts or really just one player. It makes it more complicated for sure.

With the way the league treats incentives, giving someone like Savage a new incentive laden contract might not have as big of an impact on the cap as I thought. For instance with a base salary of vet min, + a boat load of incentives to potentially bring him to $5-8M payday, as you pointed out, much of the incentives would be LTBE ones. Even still, if Savage was injured or his play put him on the bench/inactive, the Packers would still save a ton of money over a contract that guaranteed him say $10M over the 3 year deal. They would also see the savings on the cap, whether it was in the current or next season.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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With Jones I keep trying to shove into my head the concept of "the heart makes bad deals." I'd give Aaron Jones the moon, and truthfully I think the best discussion with Jones is AFTER the draft if I'm Russ and Gute IF you are going to talk about anything with him (many especially @Dantés I believe have laid out best plan may be just ride the one more year out as is). IF you are though wait to see how the draft goes for you...maybe we grab a guy we like early (a Brooks, Benson, Lloyd, Irving type...) but also see a guy our group is a big fan of fall to the sixth perhaps and we actually add two backs we love to the house, Wilson coming back for sure....well now we have a path where we can tell Jones let's discuss if an extension makes sense - make him one of the two or so cornerstone veterans you want on a roster even with the youth. His snap count of dependency will hopefully drop which should elongate the time he can play at a high level for us.
After this season, I don't think the Packers will be done with AJ, nor will AJ be done with the Packers. The guy is just too valuable to this offense and really, it would be silly to upset the apple cart over $5M (cap savings if he is purged).
AJ is a team guy, as well as a fan/City of GB favorite. Moving forward, the best thing to do would be to sit down with AJ and his agent and say "OK, we view you as a Packer for life, lets do what is best for you and the Packers to make that happen." I think they end up giving him a 2-4 year extension and the terms will be favorable to both sides.
 

thequick12

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Couple things...or thoughts.

Such bonuses as described for a per game to that degree with Bahk could have massive cap implications. Unless the league changed there are two types of incentives you can place in a contract and they hit the different caps:

As for Jones, you have to look at his dead money...due to void years. Yes his dead cap is around 12 and his hit is around 17....but it isn't that clean. There is $6.6M already shoved into years he isn't under contract...so the wiggle room of doing an extension, saving us money and likely giving him some more guarantee (him and his agent ain't doing an extension for free lol) is limited. Arguably you could spread a couple million a year out in a two or three year extension, use one or two void years and keep shave his hit to like $13M or $14M next year.....maybe...and likely have to have a hit of $10+M in 2025 and close to that in 2026 to make it work.....which remind ourselves he is going to be 32 by then.

If Im being realistic, I dont see any chance Bakh would agree to such a deal in the first place.

So in regards to Jones I guess the best course of action then would be to take the 17, 575, 823 cap hit in 2024 and try to win a SB and worry about the rest later.

I think it would be a real diservice to Love to move on from Jones over 5, 227, 823 going into his 2nd season as the starter.

Granted the 2024 draft is definitely the time to target a new "Jones" type back. Jonathan Brooks Texas comes to mind off the top of my head
 

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With Jones I keep trying to shove into my head the concept of "the heart makes bad deals." I'd give Aaron Jones the moon, and truthfully I think the best discussion with Jones is AFTER the draft if I'm Russ and Gute IF you are going to talk about anything with him (many especially @Dantés I believe have laid out best plan may be just ride the one more year out as is). IF you are though wait to see how the draft goes for you...maybe we grab a guy we like early (a Brooks, Benson, Lloyd, Irving type...) but also see a guy our group is a big fan of fall to the sixth perhaps and we actually add two backs we love to the house, Wilson coming back for sure....well now we have a path where we can tell Jones let's discuss if an extension makes sense - make him one of the two or so cornerstone veterans you want on a roster even with the youth. His snap count of dependency will hopefully drop which should elongate the time he can play at a high level for us.

I don't really see another good option for him.

1) You don't want to let him go because he can still play.

2) Cutting him nets very little, as was pointed out above.

3) Extending him is unwise-- he will turn 30 next season and he will have about 1600 NFL touches on his body.

4) They already have 6.3M in dead money committed to Jones beyond 2024 because of void years, so I don't think you want to add to that just to lessen his cap number for next season.

So just let him play out the string in 2024 and draft some good backups to develop behind him and/or play in his stead if he's hurt.
 

tynimiller

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After this season, I don't think the Packers will be done with AJ, nor will AJ be done with the Packers. The guy is just too valuable to this offense and really, it would be silly to upset the apple cart over $5M (cap savings if he is purged).
AJ is a team guy, as well as a fan/City of GB favorite. Moving forward, the best thing to do would be to sit down with AJ and his agent and say "OK, we view you as a Packer for life, lets do what is best for you and the Packers to make that happen." I think they end up giving him a 2-4 year extension and the terms will be favorable to both sides.

Oh he's going to be here next year, I don't doubt that. I do think there is a VERY strong likelihood though given his age Gute/Russ might not want to do anything till AFTER they see how he gets through 2024 health wise..
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Oh he's going to be here next year, I don't doubt that. I do think there is a VERY strong likelihood though given his age Gute/Russ might not want to do anything till AFTER they see how he gets through 2024 health wise..
I get that, he just turned 29 in Dec. so he is reaching that point where we often see a dramatic drop-off in players, especially RB's. I could be wrong, but I don't see that happening to Jones. The guy seems to take great care of his body, heals quickly and has one of the best attitudes that I have seen a player have in a long time.

I'm going against my norm here and say lock the guy down for 2-3 more years, unless he does something I don't expect, wants to be paid like a top 5 RB.
 

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Yet, at this point he isn't an All-Pro and, well, Love and the OL had a GREAT performance yesterday.

Again, my problem isn't valuing a position like LT, it is with financially overvaluing it. Tying up the kind of money, especially guaranteed money, that they did in Bahk, just wasn't smart IMO. I said it at the time that the Packers did it and caught a ton of flack for it. It is a luxury to have a great LT, but when you have to pay him the salary of 2 pretty decent WR's or a WR and a RB, TE, etc. you start getting what the Packers offense had prior to this year. 2-3 guys (Rodgers, Bahk, Adams) pulling in a kings ransom on offense and not enough money to use to improve the team elsewhere.
Hence the need to continually stock the O line through the draft. In case of injuries or cost. And you need to weed out whoever is not going to be good enough as a back up. There may be years that you feel really good about all the back-ups and then no need to draft one. But a year like this one should probably be two at least.
 

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I get that, he just turned 29 in Dec. so he is reaching that point where we often see a dramatic drop-off in players, especially RB's. I could be wrong, but I don't see that happening to Jones. The guy seems to take great care of his body, heals quickly and has one of the best attitudes that I have seen a player have in a long time.

I'm going against my norm here and say lock the guy down for 2-3 more years, unless he does something I don't expect, wants to be paid like a top 5 RB.
I'm thinking a roster bonus and guaranteed salary if the roster bonus is paid type extension. Similar to AR12's structure where if this year's bonus is paid, a healthy chunk of next year's salary is guaranteed.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Hence the need to continually stock the O line through the draft. In case of injuries or cost. And you need to weed out whoever is not going to be good enough as a back up. There may be years that you feel really good about all the back-ups and then no need to draft one. But a year like this one should probably be two at least.
Yup and I think both TT and Gute have done a great job at doing that. The only time we hear about the OL is when they have a rash of injuries. Otherwise, year in and year out, those guys do their job pretty well. I also think it is a huge benefit to the OL to have a guy like Love playing behind him. This isn't a rookie who doesn't know how to read defenses and audible out of a play. Love also quickly has developed something Rodgers had, the knack to feel the pressure and move away from it. Finally, Love is a lot more mobile than Rodgers and those young legs can sometimes make up for a missed block.

I am sure Rodgers has been in Woody's ear about the Jets OL and it wouldn't surprise me if they spend all they have fortifying it. Rodgers is going to be 41 before the 2024 season is over and he NEEDS a solid OL to play at a high level.
 

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