How to return to contention in 2017

mradtke66

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I favor staying in the 3-4 because we'd have to replace fewer parts.

Re-sign Perry, which should probably be done regardless, and the front 7 has at least adequate players everywhere--assuming Guion-Clark-Daniels upfront, Perry, Ryan, Martinez, Matthew at linebacker. Any pick in the front 7 that bumps one of those guys from the starting lineup to backup/situational player makes the defense better.

To go to 4-3, we'd start the off-season as (hole), Clark, Daniels, Perry up front and (hole), Ryan, Martinez at linebacker. To cobble something together, we could use Matthews as the SLB and Lowry/Datone as the strong DE, but neither has shown anything in such a role.

Going to nickel, the front 4 would probably be Matthews and Perry at DE, Daniels as one of the DTs. Clark for nickel, but we'd have to find someone for dime DT to replace Clark.

What are gaining by switching to a 4-3 again?
 

Mondio

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I think switching means we have a season or 2 of drafting and growing pains. But I guess with how things look on defense right now and all the FA's, maybe now is the time to do it if they were going to. But It's not the path I'd choose.
 
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Just switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 doesn't mean we'll instantly have a good defense. What matters is having someone that can run a defense. There are plenty of successful 3-4 defenses, the number of down lineman is not what changes a bad defense to a good defense.
I actually agree. I'm agnostic as to whether the new guy is a 3-4 or a 4-3.

The point was to illustrate that 4-3 is not out of the question with the current personnel with a couple of changes. The cognitive dissonance of "that's not the way we're used to doing things" in a similar scheme gets broken down in a scheme change...clean the slate, start with fresh air.

I expressed the possibility of making the switch in 2015 to Schwartz if he would have taken the job, but Matthews would have been problematic. In retrospect, he was wasted playing ILB anyway. Schwartz had a record fielding decent defenses in Detroit sometimes with undermanned backfields. He was not cut out to be a head coach; he couldn't control the thuggery (not just Suh). Some guys are just not HC material. He then took an underachieving Bills defense into a top drawer unit in one year, got dumped by Ryan, and that D has not been the same since even with both Ryans this season. After sitting out the 2015 season (waiting for a HC call?), Schwartz has taken an underperforming bottom-of-pack Philly unit and taken them to the top 10, again in one season.

So my question behind this history lesson is as follows: are there one-time accomplished DCs with a track record of turn-arounds who have failed as a HC? They would be on the short list of candidates, and I wouldn't care if they're 3-4 or 4-3 guys.
 
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HardRightEdge

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I favor staying in the 3-4 because we'd have to replace fewer parts.

Re-sign Perry, which should probably be done regardless, and the front 7 has at least adequate players everywhere--assuming Guion-Clark-Daniels upfront, Perry, Ryan, Martinez, Matthew at linebacker. Any pick in the front 7 that bumps one of those guys from the starting lineup to backup/situational player makes the defense better.

To go to 4-3, we'd start the off-season as (hole), Clark, Daniels, Perry up front and (hole), Ryan, Martinez at linebacker. To cobble something together, we could use Matthews as the SLB and Lowry/Datone as the strong DE, but neither has shown anything in such a role.

Going to nickel, the front 4 would probably be Matthews and Perry at DE, Daniels as one of the DTs. Clark for nickel, but we'd have to find someone for dime DT to replace Clark.

What are gaining by switching to a 4-3 again?
Frankly, I see Martinez are more of a 4-3 OLB than a 3-4 ILB.

Mathews' value proposition with an $11 mil cap hit has grown highly questionable even in the 3-4. In a 4-3 conversion, parting ways and using the cap to sign a DE FA or using that top 15 draft pick for one...probably a pass rusher first and foremost that you can project as a 3 down player in year 2 or 3 (which is the way these things tend to go). That leaves finding a 4-3 OLB. That could be Thomas or an upgrade. He's on the field enough now as it is even without injuries.
 
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HardRightEdge

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We need to get faster as a team. Speed speed speed.
The D had decent speed with Shields and Randall on the field, and Ryan and Martinez are speed upgrades over where this team was a year ago. Without these guys there is clearly a speed deficit.
 

Mavster

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Cobb is going to be earning a top 10 WR salary during these next two years. That is awful and we need to do something about it. Same with Clay. Cut them both and use the $$ to replace them.
 

mradtke66

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Frankly, I see Martinez are more of a 4-3 OLB than a 3-4 ILB.

Sure, but as the weak ILB in a 3-4, his alignment and responsibilities would be almost entirely unchanged as a 4-3 WOLB. He's certainly not a SOLB.

Mathews' value proposition with an $11 mil cap hit has grown highly questionable even in the 3-4.

Probably. He's certainly be hurt and not entirely up to snuff this year. I wouldn't mind some kind of contract adjustment, but a healthy Matthews is still either the best or second best (behind Daniels) player on defense. I'd be reluctant to let him go.

In a 4-3 conversion, parting ways and using the cap to sign a DE FA or using that top 15 draft pick for one...probably a pass rusher first and foremost that you can project as a 3 down player in year 2 or 3

Maybe, but 11 million probably won't sign a player even as good as Matthews. The risk with FA is that contracts are inflated, as there is typically a bidding war. And these kinds of defensive ends are rare. Whoever we get next year in this scenario will almost certainly be worse than Matthews for at least the next year. Unless we're picking top 5 and even that is still a craps shoot. AND THEN it makes it harder to upgrade the cornerback position to replace Shields.

That leaves finding a 4-3 OLB. That could be Thomas or an upgrade. He's on the field enough now as it is even without injuries.

I don't see that working out. He's a reasonable nickel backer, but again, not a strong OLB. The best player on the roster for that position is actually Matthews. No one else could probably do it well.

Consider the Seahawks who run a 3-4 with 4-3 personnel, which is basically what the 4-3 Under is. This link shows it perfectly: https://krossover.com/articles/inside-the-playbook-the-4-3-under/

So again, what are gaining with a 4-3 vs a 3-4?

4-3: Re-sign Perry, cut Matthews, find an above average strong side defensive end with some pass rush to replace Matthews, and find a Strong OLB. Learn a new scheme and potentially start slow on defense. Nickel defense looks more or less identical to how it looks today.

3-4: Re-sign Perry, try to renegotiate Matthews (maybe, not strictly required), and get some bodies for the front 7, whoever ends up available to us. Continuity is maintained at a high level, allowing a new 3-4 DC to just apply his version.

I really want to understand why people want to change to a 3-4 for a reason other than, "Capers does it, he's bad, change all of the things." Because I really don't see what we're gaining by switching.
 

PackerDNA

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Start with trimming the dead weight, such as Datone Jones, Barclay, Janis, among others.
Identify- and let go - players who are at the point of diminishing returns, such as Clay and Peppers (Jordy? will need to revisit his and Cobbs cap hits)
Gotta run- finish later.
 

Mondio

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The way Datone started the year, i was pleasantly surprised. Then after last game, i wanted him cut after that play he did a weak assed Suh stomp. Especially after they were giving up their 14th 3 play touchdown drive of the game he should have Suh stomped on his own face.
 

swhitset

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The way Datone started the year, i was pleasantly surprised. Then after last game, i wanted him cut after that play he did a weak assed Suh stomp. Especially after they were giving up their 14th 3 play touchdown drive of the game he should have Suh stomped on his own face.
I missed that .... probably a good thing
 

Mondio

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he didn't really stomp anything. he stood over someone and then stepped over him while dragging his foot across his face mask. nothing too drastic, but mental midget bush league Bull **** is all it was.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Sure, but as the weak ILB in a 3-4, his alignment and responsibilities would be almost entirely unchanged as a 4-3 WOLB. He's certainly not a SOLB.
Actually not. The 3-4 ILB, weak or strong, is a sideline-to-sideline player while often having to bang heads between the tackles. Dropping in middle coverage is a tough job. It's a full-field, 360 degree position. At 4-3 OLB you're playing in more space and in half the field.

Probably. He's certainly be hurt and not entirely up to snuff this year. I wouldn't mind some kind of contract adjustment, but a healthy Matthews is still either the best or second best (behind Daniels) player on defense. I'd be reluctant to let him go.
Perry is a better player than Matthews at this stage. Cutting a guy's pay, assuming he'd agree to it, rewards you with a declining player who is not entirely happy. That's why you don't see it done very often.
Maybe, but 11 million probably won't sign a player even as good as Matthews. The risk with FA is that contracts are inflated, as there is typically a bidding war. And these kinds of defensive ends are rare. Whoever we get next year in this scenario will almost certainly be worse than Matthews for at least the next year. Unless we're picking top 5 and even that is still a craps shoot. AND THEN it makes it harder to upgrade the cornerback position to replace Shields.
Not $11 million total; that's $11 million in 2017 cap hit, which would not include the bulk of the signing bonus. You should be able to get a pretty decent DE for that money. But it would have to be a long term deal, so you had better be confident of his impact. Of course that's something to enter into with more confidence that a top 5 pick crap shoot.
I don't see that working out. He's a reasonable nickel backer, but again, not a strong OLB. The best player on the roster for that position is actually Matthews. No one else could probably do it well.
I only mentioned Thomas because he's already getting some decent snaps as a sub-par 3-4 ILB. So making him a sub-par OLB is nearly a wash. So, yes you'd prefer to replace him in 4-3, but you'd like to do that in a 3-4. It's just a point of comparison. Matthews would be as good of a 4-3 backer as he was an ILB...not very. His rushes would be limited to blitzes and he looks worst when the play is coming right at him, which is what the 4-3 OLB has to face. Mathews is a backside player against the run. Further, he's not as fast as he once was. We saw him having trouble covering guys downfield from ILB last season. He's an edge rusher, take it or leave it at $11 mil cap cost for 2017.
Consider the Seahawks who run a 3-4 with 4-3 personnel, which is basically what the 4-3 Under is. This link shows it perfectly: https://krossover.com/articles/inside-the-playbook-the-4-3-under/
If there's little difference, then why make an issue out of it? The fact of the matter is Seattle does use 4 D-Linemen who all play with their hands in the dirt with regularity, including Avril and Bennett who fit the 4-3 DE mold. It's different, with different kinds of personnel up front.
So again, what are gaining with a 4-3 vs a 3-4?

4-3: Re-sign Perry, cut Matthews, find an above average strong side defensive end with some pass rush to replace Matthews, and find a Strong OLB. Learn a new scheme and potentially start slow on defense. Nickel defense looks more or less identical to how it looks today.

3-4: Re-sign Perry, try to renegotiate Matthews (maybe, not strictly required), and get some bodies for the front 7, whoever ends up available to us. Continuity is maintained at a high level, allowing a new 3-4 DC to just apply his version.

I really want to understand why people want to change to a 3-4 for a reason other than, "Capers does it, he's bad, change all of the things." Because I really don't see what we're gaining by switching.
As noted previously, I'm mostly agnostic as to scheme and more concerned with the quality of the schemer.

And as noted previously, you touched on one possible advantage to a 4-3. You mentioned continuity. That may be more of an impediment than an advantage. But I come from the perspective that Capers' system is flawed, not just this year, and not just exposed by CB injuries, but evidenced for several years running. It might be better to bring in some fresh air rather than work off something that's flawed.

Whatever the outcome, I would hope it's less complicated, with fewer gadgets and less cerebral. Cluttering guys minds with myriad assignment variations blunts playmaking.
 
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Half Empty

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Start with trimming the dead weight, such as Datone Jones, Barclay, Janis, among others.
Identify- and let go - players who are at the point of diminishing returns, such as Clay and Peppers (Jordy? will need to revisit his and Cobbs cap hits)
Gotta run- finish later.

Roughly, Cobb (next year) is $6.5 mil dead money, about $6 overall savings. Jordy is about $4.5 dead, $7 net saved.
 
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HardRightEdge

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The way Datone started the year, i was pleasantly surprised. Then after last game, i wanted him cut after that play he did a weak assed Suh stomp. Especially after they were giving up their 14th 3 play touchdown drive of the game he should have Suh stomped on his own face.
Datone Jones: a flash here and there, but just not consistent. In the great scheme of things, he's another Mike Neal. You wouldn't notice his absence.
 

DarkHelmet

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1) Let go of Barclay, Shields (for his own good) R. Rodgers and Starks.
2) Lacy & Matthews come back only if there is some reason to believe they can stay healthy for more than six games per season.
3) Draft the best cornerback available in the first round, including trading up to get him if necessary.
4) Draft the best RB available in the second round.
5) Draft an inside linebacker
6) Draft a tight end as a developmental project in the 4th or 5th round while penciling Cook as your starter
7) Get a decent corner in free agency
8) Get a decent safety in free agency
9) Get a decent blocking TE in free agency

If Thompson won't do these things then get rid of Thompson.
 

mradtke66

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Actually not. The 3-4 ILB, weak or strong, is a sideline-to-sideline player while often having to bang heads between the tackles. Dropping in middle coverage is a tough job. It's a full-field, 360 degree position. At 4-3 OLB you're playing in more space and in half the field.

Disagree here, but more in nuance. You sound like you're talking about a 4-3 over, which Jimmy Johnson ran in Dallas and we ran in Green Bay under Jim Bates. In that alignment, yes, all 4 linebackers are up off the ball and you have left and right OLBs. It's not the typical 4-3 played anymore.

I'm talking about 4-3 under, which is what the Packers ran under Fritz in the Super Bowl years and what Seattle runs now. The linebackers shift towards the tight end side and you create a Strong and Weak linebacker. The Strong is on or nearly on the LOS and is responsible for jamming the TE and holding contain. Think of this position at 3-4 OLB-lite--just take away the pass rush requirements and there's your man. The Weak is now your playmaker and man coverage guy should the running back release to his side. This is the more typical 4-3 alignment today and what we would end up with if we swapped.

Perry is a better player than Matthews at this stage. Cutting a guy's pay, assuming he'd agree to it, rewards you with a declining player who is not entirely happy. That's why you don't see it done very often.

True, but I'm mostly happy with Matthew's contract. This year, he's not playing up to it. I'd be tempted to sit on it and see what happens. It's not like we need the money. At least not yet. You can usual convince a player to take a cut in exchange for more guaranteed money.

Matthews would be as good of a 4-3 backer as he was an ILB...not very.

Make him the SOLB in base and mug the TE and help hold contain. When you go to nickel, he becomes your other edge rusher. In other words, almost the exact same job he has today. Though he'd probably be even more over-paid in that situation.

If there's little difference, then why make an issue out of it? The fact of the matter is Seattle does use 4 D-Linemen who all play with their hands in the dirt with regularity, including Avril and Bennett who fit the 4-3 DE mold. It's different, with different kinds of personnel up front.

The difference is between the SOLB and the open DE or elephant or LEO. Whatever you call the right DE. Have him stand up in a two point stance. Now it's a 3-4. It's that simple. What I like in a 3-4 vs. a 4-3 you have two guys that are more or less the same, both OLBs, rather than a SOLB and a LEO. Having two stand up guys allows them to swap between "I'm the 4th guy rushing, because I'm away from the TE" LEO role and "I'm mugging the TE" SOLB role.

But I come from the perspective that Capers' system is flawed, not just this year, and not just exposed by CB injuries, but evidenced for several years running. It might be better to bring in some fresh air rather than work off something that's flawed.

You're not wrong there, I think Capers' time is up. But 3-4's are not inherently flawed. Plenty of good defenses run a 3-4. I'd prefer adjustment and refinement rather than scraping the whole thing. Capers' run defenses for the most part have been good. His turnover ratio has been good. They've gotten good pressure.

Where he's failed is covering tight ends over the middle. Some of that is scheme, some of that is personnel. Good receiving TEs are hard to find. The linebackers who can cover them are harder to find.

The other spot is in the secondary. I do think they've ended up getting too cute back there and that's where a change in DC might help. Cover 0, 1, 2, 3, man, or zone is basically the same regardless of what the front is doing.

I personally don't like cover-3 just because it's so simple. It's the coverage quarterbacks have been playing against since high school, if not earlier. Unless you Thomas and Sherman in two of the deep thirds, it's vulnerable.
 

JBlood

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[QUOTE="mradtke66, post: 690108, member: 4199"
So again, what are gaining with a 4-3 vs a 3-4?
[/QUOTE]

Nothing if someone doesn't make tackling an important part of teaching defense.
 

Packerlifer

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With only two outside linebackers under contract for the 2017 season it might be the right time to change to a 4-3 mext offseason.


What the Packers have - and need- in the secondary will be the same whatever scheme is used.

They haven't been able to get the outside edge rushing linebackers they need, except for Clay Mathews in 2009, so why should we expect them to be able to do so next offseason. All that will happen is they'll end up drafting an undersized defensive end and probably get the same results.

It's more likely that getting a pair of regular de's on a 4 man front will get a pass rush going sooner and better.

Can you see Mike Daniels, Kenny Clark, Mike Pennel and LaTroy Guion pairing inside with an Aaron Kampman-KGB type of arrangement at the bookends ? Tough to run against with a much stronger rush up front than the Packers have had in years.
 

sschind

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What I see here is a lot of dumping salary and replacing the players with cheaper ones with little to no regards as to replacing them with comparable ones. It looks like everyone wants to have more money than the Raiders just so they can spend big in FA and get some more high priced talent that may or may not be worth their salary. At least its different high priced talent.
 

swhitset

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Datone Jones: a flash here and there, but just not consistent. In the great scheme of things, he's another Mike Neal. You wouldn't notice his absence.
I don't notice his presence so... I have no doubt that his absence would be the same.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Disagree here, but more in nuance.
I stopped around half way through that post because you were arguing against points I did not make.

To repeat, you seem to insist that 3-4 continuity is important, then go on to say a 4-3 under is a distinction without a difference. I'm not getting it.
 

mkonyn

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All this talk about 4-3 vs 3-4 is great... but honestly I feel like our problems originate with those remaining 4 guys. Maybe we need to get that situated first? Idk, just where I'm at right now.
 
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Look, I agree having a solid backup QB can save your season if something happens to your QB, but if something doesn't , they add zero value. Solid backup QBs are a good insurance policy for an already good team. We are not presently a good team and thus I tend to look at the backup QB position as more of a luxury .

At this point with so many holes on the roster I'm more concerned about surrounding Rodgers with the right supporting cast than who will come in if he ever goes down .

The Packers not having enough quality depth is a major reason for the team's current struggles. It wouldn't be a smart move trading away the backup quarterback still on his rookie contract.

This would assume that Perry stays healthy and T-Rex arms(Lowry) would be successful. I don't like the rotational depth that leaves us with. We'd have to sign Datone too just for a body and there are no strong pass rush defensive ends in that unit. Daniels and Clark would probably do very well as DTs, with Pennel as a rotational player. However, like I said, we'd have no pass rushing defensive ends which are a premium in this league. This means we'd have to draft one or two in this draft when we already need a corner. Don't forget rookies on the defensive line take about 2-3 years to develop.

So now we have to draft a linebacker, one or two effective defensive ends, and a corner. That sounds great, but then we completely avoid helping our offense in the draft. We need a running back, tight end, and so more o-line depth since we'll be losing a few to free agency.

I understand it's tough for Packers fans to understand but there are actually other methods than the draft to acquire talent.
 
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adambr2

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The Packers not having enough quality depth is a major reason for the team's current struggles. It wouldn't be a smart move trading away the backup quarterback still on his rookie contract.

It all depends on what you can get for him, IMO. Hypothetically, if you could get a 2nd for Hundley and sign Shaun Hill, would you do it?
 

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