Randall Cobb is...

[Candidate for Deletion]

There is still much that needs to play out, of course, but I would be hesitant to use the depth of potential as a reason to pass on Adams. This being a heavy 11 personnel offense, you essentially have three starters. Even if they give Nelson a 3rd contract, they need two more guys. And given their ages, Adams may well be the better player over the next five years. I love Jordy, but he is entering the phase of his career where he may easily drop off.

Adams need to match or build on last year. But if camp is any indicator, he is doing just that. The reports I read all seem to point to a significant drop off after Nelson and Adams. I think he's taken a step well past Cobb and could be in for another big season. In Mike McCarthy's offense, I just don't see how you let that go. Doing so seems to risk having next to nothing in 2019.

I agree with everything here. I think that developmental depth does not lead you to cut starters; starters give you room to look for longer-shot, higher-ceiling prospects. I also tend to think that Adams gets his second contract, and that they don't skimp. I think he will be easily within the top 15 paid WRs with his next contract, and probably in the top 10 if this year is a reasonable build off of last year. I think that it probably ranges somewhere around 12 million a year over the course of 5 years - well into his mid/late 20s - and that they look to renegotiate at 4.

 

[Dantés]

I agree with everything here. I think that developmental depth does not lead you to cut starters; starters give you room to look for longer-shot, higher-ceiling prospects. I also tend to think that Adams gets his second contract, and that they don't skimp. I think he will be easily within the top 15 paid WRs with his next contract, and probably in the top 10 if this year is a reasonable build off of last year. I think that it probably ranges somewhere around 12 million a year over the course of 5 years - well into his mid/late 20s - and that they look to renegotiate at 4.

And realistically, players are often "overpaid" at the beginning of extensions these days as the cap continues to rise. But as time goes on and more players get their second deals, it tends to put the money in better perspective.

Bottom line for me, I have no idea what the Packers are doing with all this extra space if it's not to make sure they keep important players like Adams.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

TT is also not afraid to not resign (or release) a guy, if he has someone else to take his place at a cheaper price. Like I said, I think what happens with Adams depends a lot on Adams himself and what the young guys are showing and more specifically, the guy who ends up as the #4 WR in September. Will any of them be as good as Adams? Probably not at this point, but was Adams that special his first 2 years? If TT waits to resign Adams after the season, it will come down to what the Packers are willing to offer VS. what Adams and his agent think he will command on the open market. I am hoping the young WR's can make Adams expendable and use the money elsewhere. I like Adams, but having 3 WR's on big contracts eats a good portion of the cap, leaving you with less to spend on other positions of greater need.

Now if Adams has a Pro Bowl season, sign him, cut or renegotiate Cobb.

 

[Dantés]

TT is also not afraid to not resign (or release) a guy, if he has someone else to take his place at a cheaper price. Like I said, I think what happens with Adams depends a lot on Adams himself and what the young guys are showing and more specifically, the guy who ends up as the #4 WR in September. Will any of them be as good as Adams? Probably not at this point, but was Adams that special his first 2 years? If TT waits to resign Adams after the season, it will come down to what the Packers are willing to offer VS. what Adams and his agent think he will command on the open market. I am hoping the young WR's can make Adams expendable and use the money elsewhere. I like Adams, but having 3 WR's on big contracts eats a good portion of the cap, leaving you with less to spend on other positions of greater need.

Now if Adams has a Pro Bowl season, sign him, cut or renegotiate Cobb.

Ok, but why wouldn't you just cut Cobb and extend Adams if you only want two big contracts at WR? The former is clearly declining. Letting a better, younger player walk wouldn't seem sensible.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

Ok, but why wouldn't you just cut Cobb and extend Adams if you only want two big contracts at WR? The former is clearly declining. Letting a better, younger player walk wouldn't seem sensible.

Adams could easily get the same contract that Cobb did, which is about twice what I believe either are worth. But since TT has failed to draft any young talent to replace Nelson once he starts to decline, or anyone other than Adams worthy of anything better than a #5 WR role, he'll probably keep him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Ok, but why wouldn't you just cut Cobb and extend Adams if you only want two big contracts at WR? The former is clearly declining. Letting a better, younger player walk wouldn't seem sensible.

Which is why I included Cobb as a variable in all this with my original post.

2. Status of Cobb in 2018 and beyond.

Remember, Cobb is only 26, so he is younger than most probably would guess. But yeah, if the Packers want to eat the $3.25 M on Cobbs contract and use the savings of $6.25M to resign Adams, that is a possibility. I still hope the Packers restructure and retain Cobb. He may not be fully earning his current contract, but I just like what the guy brings to the Packer offense and special teams when needed.

 

[Dantés]

Adams could easily get the same contract that Cobb did, which is about twice what I believe either are worth. But since TT has failed to draft any young talent to replace Nelson once he starts to decline, or anyone other than Adams worthy of anything better than a #5 WR role, he'll probably keep him.

If you think Adams is only worth half of what Cobb is currently getting, then I'd suggest you have a warped view of player values in the NFL.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If you think Adams is only worth half of what Cobb is currently getting, then I'd suggest you have a warped view of player values in the NFL.

Personally, I think the NFL has a warped view of players values! Set them up in a nice apartment and give them a per game stipend LOL

Better not go down that road, this is the one part of professional sports that has me teetering on not participating as a "fan".

 

[Sky King]

Ok, but why wouldn't you just cut Cobb and extend Adams if you only want two big contracts at WR? The former is clearly declining. Letting a better, younger player walk wouldn't seem sensible.

Pretty much in agreement with the interesting exchanges between you and Pokerbrat.

Cohen and Silverstein raised a question in yesterdays podcast devoted to the receiver position: What if some team desperate for a slot receiver were to make TT an offer for Cobb that he just can't refuse? It wasn't a prediction on the part of Silverstein but he does raise a valid point. Neither he and Cohen predicted that TT would release or trade Cobb this season and I think they're correct -- not necessarily for cap reasons but rather because of his value to the team.

Plus, his situation is financially different from the back to back losses of Pro-Bowl guards. As has been discussed here previously, who would be Cobb's replacement? If his backup is already good enough to be his near equal then who would be the backup to the backup? And if Jordy is that potential backup then the same domino scenario continues at the WR position.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Pretty much in agreement with the interesting exchanges between you and Pokerbrat.

Good to read someone finds us interesting!

 

[Sky King]

Good to read someone finds us interesting!

It must be the caffeine in my coffee.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It must be the caffeine in my coffee.

That or the paint fumes?

 

[Sky King]

That or the paint fumes?

No paint fumes but my dog has been flagellating most of the morning.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

No paint fumes but my dog has been flagellating most of the morning.

Yeah I blame my dog too

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[Patriotplayer90]

If you think Adams is only worth half of what Cobb is currently getting, then I'd suggest you have a warped view of player values in the NFL.

Golden Tate
Travis Benjamin
Terrele Pryor
Jeremy Maclin
Julian Edelman
Rishard Matthews
Chris Hogan
Adam Thielan
Eric Decker

That's a list of players who are making much less than Cobb and playing at a higher level. I believe any could produce at least close to the level of Adams, if not exceed it, in GB's system.

Times have changed. You don't "build" through the draft. If you draft a first tier player, you pay them, and try to bring others in by whatever means, FA or trade. Then you draft rookies who can actually contribute early, instead of giving just one or two years of solid pay on their rookie contracts then rewarding them as if they are first tier payers. Year two, they should be solid, instead of the horrible train wreck of a performance we've seen from our young players.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Golden Tate
Travis Benjamin
Terrele Pryor
Jeremy Maclin
Julian Edelman
Rishard Matthews
Chris Hogan
Adam Thielan
Eric Decker

That's a list of players who are making much less than Cobb and playing at a higher level. I believe any could produce at least close to the level of Adams, if not exceed it, in GB's system.

Times have changed. You don't "build" through the draft. If you draft a first tier player, you pay them, and try to bring others in by whatever means, FA or trade. Then you draft rookies who can actually contribute early, instead of giving just one or two years of solid pay on their rookie contracts then rewarding them as if they are first tier payers. Year two, they should be solid, instead of the horrible train wreck of a performance we've seen from our young players.

All of what you said is "in a perfect world, this should be your goal". But the reality is it doesn't always play out that way, TT and other GM's don't have a crystal ball. While the list you provided, I didn't even check, are probably players who are out performing a contract that was based on their previous performance. Cobb was signed....based on he previous performance. Adams will be paid.....based on what he previously did. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.

 

[Candidate for Deletion]

No paint fumes but my dog has been flagellating most of the morning.

I'm highly concerned that your dog is a member of an extreme Catholic sub-sect....

 

[Sky King]

I'm highly concerned that your dog is a member of an extreme Catholic sub-sect....

Maybe. She attends St. Mattress for about 16 hours per day.

 

[Dantés]

Which is why I included Cobb as a variable in all this with my original post.



Remember, Cobb is only 26, so he is younger than most probably would guess. But yeah, if the Packers want to eat the $3.25 M on Cobbs contract and use the savings of $6.25M to resign Adams, that is a possibility. I still hope the Packers restructure and retain Cobb. He may not be fully earning his current contract, but I just like what the guy brings to the Packer offense and special teams when needed.

Even if Cobb staves off the steady decline of recent seasons in 2017, is it wise to keep him and allow Adams to walk? He may only be 27 this month, but he will have 7 seasons on his body after this next campaign and injuries have taken their toll.

My personal opinion on Cobb is that his decline is more due to the erosion of his ability than his usage in the offense. He's always been an undersized guy and was never an especially good athlete. Now you tack on a bunch of injury troubles like he's dealt with over the years and he just isn't that dynamic.

Per Spotrac, the Packers would actually save a net 9.5M in cap space if they cut him after this season (12.75M total minus the 3.25M in dead space). However, I don't necessarily think they need to let him go to keep Adams. Their contracts would only have to overlap for one season.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Even if Cobb staves off the steady decline of recent seasons in 2017, is it wise to keep him and allow Adams to walk? He may only be 27 this month, but he will have 7 seasons on his body after this next campaign and injuries have taken their toll.

My personal opinion on Cobb is that his decline is more due to the erosion of his ability than his usage in the offense. He's always been an undersized guy and was never an especially good athlete. Now you tack on a bunch of injury troubles like he's dealt with over the years and he just isn't that dynamic.

Per Spotrac, the Packers would actually save a net 9.5M in cap space if they cut him after this season (12.75M total minus the 3.25M in dead space). However, I don't necessarily think they need to let him go to keep Adams. Their contracts would only have to overlap for one season.

Thanks for correcting my math on the $9.5M savings . Ultimately, what happens will depend a lot on what both players do this year. Cobb could have an injury free pro bowl type year and the Packers may start thinking of ways to resign him after next year. Adams could get injured or have an average year and the Packers let him walk. I wouldn't bank on being able to predict either player's injury status or end of year stats. This time next year we may be talking about a WR group of Jordy, Cobb and Adams......or we could be wondering how Allison, Dupre and Yancey are going to fill some pretty big shoes.

 

[Dantés]

Golden Tate
Travis Benjamin
Terrele Pryor
Jeremy Maclin
Julian Edelman
Rishard Matthews
Chris Hogan
Adam Thielan
Eric Decker

That's a list of players who are making much less than Cobb and playing at a higher level. I believe any could produce at least close to the level of Adams, if not exceed it, in GB's system.

Times have changed. You don't "build" through the draft. If you draft a first tier player, you pay them, and try to bring others in by whatever means, FA or trade. Then you draft rookies who can actually contribute early, instead of giving just one or two years of solid pay on their rookie contracts then rewarding them as if they are first tier payers. Year two, they should be solid, instead of the horrible train wreck of a performance we've seen from our young players.

You're arguing that Adams, who hypothetically will be a 25 year old coming off two straight strong seasons, is only worth 5M by comparing him to this list that includes several guys much older than him, others that aren't on his level, a couple that just got cut late in the offseason, one that's trying to prove he's made the transition from QB to WR, and generally several outdated contracts (as the cap has been rising every year). Again, I would suggest that you don't have a great handle on these things.

I totally agree that Cobb is overpaid. He's being paid based on production from a contract year that he's never approached since. But 5M in 2017 for a player of Adams' caliber and age? That's just ridiculous.

As for the bold-- that's demonstrably nonsense. Teams should use FA and trades as tools more often than TT has done, traditionally, but to say that you don't build through the draft anymore is clearly not true at all.

 

[Dantés]

Thanks for correcting my math on the $9.5M savings . Ultimately, what happens will depend a lot on what both players do this year. Cobb could have an injury free pro bowl type year and the Packers may start thinking of ways to resign him after next year. Adams could get injured or have an average year and the Packers let him walk. I wouldn't bank on being able to predict either player's injury status or end of year stats. This time next year we may be talking about a WR group of Jordy, Cobb and Adams......or we could be wondering how Allison, Dupre and Yancey are going to fill some pretty big shoes.

If both have good seasons, I think the smartest approach would be to keep the younger, better player (Adams) and allow Cobb to play out his deal and then walk with some club overpaying him for past production instead of what he figures to do moving forward. The Packers can keep the better player and potentially scoop a compensatory pick to boot. Or, if Cobb struggles, and a young player looks ready to step up, cut him and move on. They have the space to do whichever.

 

[Dantés]

Personally, I think the NFL has a warped view of players values! Set them up in a nice apartment and give them a per game stipend LOL

Better not go down that road, this is the one part of professional sports that has me teetering on not participating as a "fan".

By NFL, you mean the league that compared to the MLB and NBA has the shortest and most dangerous playing careers combined and the lowest salaries? That NFL?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

By NFL, you mean the league that compared to the MLB and NBA has the shortest and most dangerous playing careers combined and the lowest salaries? That NFL?

Yup, that NFL. The one where one man alone makes $25M + endorsements/year.

I stopped watching MLB and the NBA years ago, for that very reason. Comparing NFL players salaries to other grossly overpaid sports salaries is just drinking the koolaid IMO. By saying "shortest and most dangerous playing careers" are you comparing that to athletes or firefighters, police, soldiers, etc.??

I won't step up on my social soapbox though.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

You're arguing that Adams, who hypothetically will be a 25 year old coming off two straight strong seasons, is only worth 5M by comparing him to this list that includes several guys much older than him, others that aren't on his level, a couple that just got cut late in the offseason, one that's trying to prove he's made the transition from QB to WR, and generally several outdated contracts (as the cap has been rising every year). Again, I would suggest that you don't have a great handle on these things.

I totally agree that Cobb is overpaid. He's being paid based on production from a contract year that he's never approached since. But 5M in 2017 for a player of Adams' caliber and age? That's just ridiculous.

As for the bold-- that's demonstrably nonsense. Teams should use FA and trades as tools more often than TT has done, traditionally, but to say that you don't build through the draft anymore is clearly not true at all.

My issue isn't as much with Adams as it is with the way TT does things. Is Adams talented? Yes. But not $10M talented. Had he or Cobb been on any other team, the production presumably would have been lower, as would their value on the free market. But a year or two of good production with an excellent QB seems to warrant the pay of a great player, which is not a good business model, IMO. You pay for talent, not the presumed value due to a very favorable situation which results in inflated production numbers.

I'm beating a dead horse, but I'd much prefer the way NE does things, by taking cheap, talented players whose production suffered due to crowded rosters or poor personnel decisions on their previous teams. They ultimately end up with guys who outperform their contracts. You may think the guys who I listed "aren't on Adams' level", but most, if not all could bring at least 90% of the production of Adams, which would be perfectly fine if they cost much less than what Adams would. Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker both went to the Titans, and make less combined than what Cobb does, despite outperforming him (2016 for Matthews, and 2015 for Decker's last full season). I know who I would rather have.

Martellus Bennett was an excellent pickup, all around. But it is difficult to justify the amount of money that would go into our WR/TE corp if we were to pay Adams the big bucks. He has more years left in him than some of the players who I mentioned, but the number of years Rodgers has left in him is more of my concern. There are wiser ways to spend the money than throwing another $10M at a WR just because you don't want to go into FA and really have nothing else to spend it on.