Progressing the Packers

[Dantés]

With each passing week, Jordan Love is building his case to be the QB of the future while also playing the Packers out of the draft range where they could land a replacement even if they wanted to. So if, at a minimum, he's the guys in 2024 and, in a best case scenario, he's a legit franchise QB, how do this team progress itself towards Super Bowl contention?

Here's who they have under contract in 2024. Cut candidates are in italics:

QB:

-Jordan Love
-Sean Clifford

RB:

-Aaron Jones
-Emanuel Wilson (ERFA)
-Patrick Taylor (ERFA)

TE:

-Luke Musgrave
-Tucker Kraft
-Ben Sims

WR:

-Christian Watson
-Romeo Doubs
-Jayden Reed
-Dontayvion Wicks
-Malik Heath
-Samori Toure

OT:

-David Bakhtiari
-Zach Tom
-Rasheed Walker
-Luke Tenuta
-Caleb Jones (ERFA)

OG:

-Elgton Jenkins
-Sean Rhyan
-Royce Newman

OC:

-Josh Myers

DL:

-Kenny Clark
-Tedarrell Slaton
-Devonte Wyatt
-Karl Brooks
-Colby Wooden

ED:

-Rashan Gary
-Preston Smith
-Lukas Van Ness
-Kingsley Enagbare
-Brenton Cox

LB:

-Quay Walker
-DeVondre Campbell
-Isaiah McDuffie

CB:

-Jaire Alexander
-Carrington Valentine
-Eric Stokes
-Kyu Blu Kelly

S:

-Anthony Johnson Jr.
-Zayne Anderson

ST:

-Anders Carlson
-Daniel Whelan (ERFA)
-Matt Orzech

Pending Free Agents:

-A.J. Dillon, RB
-Josiah Deguara, FB/HB
-Tyler Davis, TE
-Yosh Nijman, OT
-Jon Runyan, G
-Eric Wilson, LB
-Keisean Nixon, CB
-Corey Ballentine, CB
-Darnell Savage, S
-Rudy Ford, S
-Jonathan Owens, S

So here's how I think about continuing to build this roster:

Positions requiring little to no investment:

-QB: Love appears to be the guy and Clifford looked like a very capable backup in the preseason. At most, all they need is a late round pick on competition for McGough to be the emergency guy.

-WR: Right now, they have five guys deserving of snaps, all of whom have 2+ seasons of control after this year is done. I think the only thing I would want is a bigger body with long speed to be a gunner and be available to replace Watson's deep speed should the latter be hurt.

-ED: Gary is locked up, Van Ness is the future across from him, Enagbare has 2 more seasons of control, and Preston Smith only frees up ~3M in cap room if released (making him less likely to be cut). So they could literally do nothing here, or they could just draft some competition late.

-ST: Carlson and Whelan are both young/promising. Orzech seems to be getting it done. Even if he isn't, it's a negligible investment to replace him.

Positions requiring moderate investment:

-TE: I really like the young group here; I only list the position in this category because they need to replace Deguara with an H-Back if they plan to use one in the offense (and they should). It would be great if they found someone who can actually play football.

-OG: The way things are trending, Rhyan should take over and have an audition before the season is over. I think he's going to claim the job. If that's the case, they just need a better backup than Newman (or at least competition). If not, then this becomes a much bigger need.

-DL: This is another position where things depend on how a player shows out down the stretch. They need better play at the 1/shade than what Slaton consistently gives. If he plays better, I think you could just add depth. If not, I think you need to maybe trade him and find a more reliable option.

-LB: Even though Campbell doesn't save them a lot of space, I think they should cut him post 6/1 and move on. He and Walker are way too similar to complement one another. The defense is better with McDuffie in. I would cut Campbell and draft depth/competition.

-CB: Hopefully Alexander gets and stays healthy, but he isn't going anywhere. Valetine has claimed a job. They still don't know what they have in Stokes. I don't think it's vital, but I would want Nixon back. If they do that, they can just add depth. If not, they need a nickel sooner rather than later.

Positions requiring significant investment:

-RB: I don't think you can/should move on from Jones yet, but you also can't count on him at his age. They would be foolish to extend Dillon or spend FA money on a veteran running back. I want to see them pound RB in the draft with as many as three picks, with at least one on day 2.

-OT: Bakhtiari needs to be gone, either via retirement or release. Maybe Walker plays well enough that this isn't as serious a need as I'm making it, but I think they need more from LT, particularly in the running game.

-C: The sense that I get is that Myers will for sure remain the starter in 2024; I think that's a mistake. They need to at least give themselves an option behind him and for the future. An immediate upgrade would be preferable.

-S: Even if they were to resign one of their own safeties (e.g. Ford or Owens), they need at least one starter here immediately and multiple guys to fill in the depth. I think it's the most logical place to spend on another team's UFA, given who is slated to hit the market (Geno Stone, Kamren Curl, Xavier McKinney, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr, Justin Blackmon, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jordan Whitehead, Mike Edwards, Kyle Dugger, Budda Baker, Chuck Clark).

TL;DR:

1) Cut Bakhtiari and Campbell.
2) Resign Nixon and Owens.
3) Spend on a FA starting safety.
4) Pound OL and RB early and often in the draft.
5) Fill in the gaps throughout the draft.
6) Prosper.

 

[milani]

With each passing week, Jordan Love is building his case to be the QB of the future while also playing the Packers out of the draft range where they could land a replacement even if they wanted to. So if, at a minimum, he's the guys in 2024 and, in a best case scenario, he's a legit franchise QB, how do this team progress itself towards Super Bowl contention?

Here's who they have under contract in 2024. Cut candidates are in italics:

QB:

-Jordan Love
-Sean Clifford

RB:

-Aaron Jones
-Emanuel Wilson (ERFA)
-Patrick Taylor (ERFA)

TE:

-Luke Musgrave
-Tucker Kraft
-Ben Sims

WR:

-Christian Watson
-Romeo Doubs
-Jayden Reed
-Dontayvion Wicks
-Malik Heath
-Samori Toure

OT:

-David Bakhtiari
-Zach Tom
-Rasheed Walker
-Luke Tenuta
-Caleb Jones (ERFA)

OG:

-Elgton Jenkins
-Sean Rhyan
-Royce Newman

OC:

-Josh Myers

DL:

-Kenny Clark
-Tedarrell Slaton
-Devonte Wyatt
-Karl Brooks
-Colby Wooden

ED:

-Rashan Gary
-Preston Smith
-Lukas Van Ness
-Kingsley Enagbare
-Brenton Cox

LB:

-Quay Walker
-DeVondre Campbell
-Isaiah McDuffie

CB:

-Jaire Alexander
-Carrington Valentine
-Eric Stokes
-Kyu Blu Kelly

S:

-Anthony Johnson Jr.
-Zayne Anderson

ST:

-Anders Carlson
-Daniel Whelan (ERFA)
-Matt Orzech

Pending Free Agents:

-A.J. Dillon, RB
-Josiah Deguara, FB/HB
-Tyler Davis, TE
-Yosh Nijman, OT
-Jon Runyan, G
-Eric Wilson, LB
-Keisean Nixon, CB
-Corey Ballentine, CB
-Darnell Savage, S
-Rudy Ford, S
-Jonathan Owens, S

So here's how I think about continuing to build this roster:

Positions requiring little to no investment:

-QB: Love appears to be the guy and Clifford looked like a very capable backup in the preseason. At most, all they need is a late round pick on competition for McGough to be the emergency guy.

-WR: Right now, they have five guys deserving of snaps, all of whom have 2+ seasons of control after this year is done. I think the only thing I would want is a bigger body with long speed to be a gunner and be available to replace Watson's deep speed should the latter be hurt.

-ED: Gary is locked up, Van Ness is the future across from him, Enagbare has 2 more seasons of control, and Preston Smith only frees up ~3M in cap room if released (making him less likely to be cut). So they could literally do nothing here, or they could just draft some competition late.

-ST: Carlson and Whelan are both young/promising. Orzech seems to be getting it done. Even if he isn't, it's a negligible investment to replace him.

Positions requiring moderate investment:

-TE: I really like the young group here; I only list the position in this category because they need to replace Deguara with an H-Back if they plan to use one in the offense (and they should). It would be great if they found someone who can actually play football.

-OG: The way things are trending, Rhyan should take over and have an audition before the season is over. I think he's going to claim the job. If that's the case, they just need a better backup than Newman (or at least competition). If not, then this becomes a much bigger need.

-DL: This is another position where things depend on how a player shows out down the stretch. They need better play at the 1/shade than what Slaton consistently gives. If he plays better, I think you could just add depth. If not, I think you need to maybe trade him and find a more reliable option.

-LB: Even though Campbell doesn't save them a lot of space, I think they should cut him post 6/1 and move on. He and Walker are way too similar to complement one another. The defense is better with McDuffie in. I would cut Campbell and draft depth/competition.

-CB: Hopefully Alexander gets and stays healthy, but he isn't going anywhere. Valetine has claimed a job. They still don't know what they have in Stokes. I don't think it's vital, but I would want Nixon back. If they do that, they can just add depth. If not, they need a nickel sooner rather than later.

Positions requiring significant investment:

-RB: I don't think you can/should move on from Jones yet, but you also can't count on him at his age. They would be foolish to extend Dillon or spend FA money on a veteran running back. I want to see them pound RB in the draft with as many as three picks, with at least one on day 2.

-OT: Bakhtiari needs to be gone, either via retirement or release. Maybe Walker plays well enough that this isn't as serious a need as I'm making it, but I think they need more from LT, particularly in the running game.

-C: The sense that I get is that Myers will for sure remain the starter in 2024; I think that's a mistake. They need to at least give themselves an option behind him and for the future. An immediate upgrade would be preferable.

-S: Even if they were to resign one of their own safeties (e.g. Ford or Owens), they need at least one starter here immediately and multiple guys to fill in the depth. I think it's the most logical place to spend on another team's UFA, given who is slated to hit the market (Geno Stone, Kamren Curl, Xavier McKinney, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr, Justin Blackmon, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jordan Whitehead, Mike Edwards, Kyle Dugger, Budda Baker, Chuck Clark).

TL;DR:

1) Cut Bakhtiari and Campbell.
2) Resign Nixon and Owens.
3) Spend on a FA starting safety.
4) Pound OL and RB early and often in the draft.
5) Fill in the gaps throughout the draft.
6) Prosper.

Let Deguara go and replace him with FB who has some size, can catch, block, and take a handful. Owens is needed. Secondary is where we always get injuries because they make too many tackles. So depth in that area is essential.

 

[Poppa San]

Let Deguara go and replace him with FB who has some size, can catch, block, and take a handful.

Sounds like a position switch for Dillon.

the only thing I would want is a bigger body with long speed to be a gunner and be available to replace Watson's deep speed should the latter be hurt.

What's Jeff Janis doing these days?

 

[milani]

Sounds like a position switch for Dillon.

What's Jeff Janis doing these days?

Saying Hail Marys.

 

[gopkrs]

Sounds like a position switch for Dillon.

Never thought of that. Does not sound like a bad idea.

 

[Half Empty]

Never thought of that. Does not sound like a bad idea.

To us, perhaps. To UFA Dillon, the top FB makes about what the 12th ranked RB makes, so I don't think so.

 

[tynimiller]

I’ve advocated for Dillon type HBack role as the only avenue I support fiscally resigning him.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’m ok with keeping Dillon if he’s agreeable to a cheaper contract. I’d even offer him a 2yr deal for less $ because he might value staying put. AJ has had a down year but really everyone has for valid reasons He’s generally reliable and his performance rises in postseason as the weather diminishes when it should be opposite. He averaged over 6 per carry against Tampa in 2020 although we Marshawn’d him 1st n goal from the 8. That’s not his fault though. AJ is consistently productive in the passing game as one of our highest rate reception receivers. He’s also become a capable and willing blocker. Interesting but the games where he’s been more involved in both phases we’ve actually won big time (and vice Versa). I’m not looking to cause roster holes for light and transient reasons for what would be trivial cap savings. The only way I’m not retaining him is if he’s asking for too much $

As far as Campbell. He’s likely not going anywhere until 2025 for fiscal reasons unless it’s a timed trade and we rarely do that except for problem players, which he’s far from that. Either 5-7th rounds or the 2025 draft would be my guess at LB as we’re pretty set there overall.

Safety = a primary need. In 2024 draft 1 using a top 50 type selection as I don’t see any worthy of teens draft selection.

Imo, We need to groom another RB Ideally we get a good one later Day2. That’s where the strength of the crop lies this year. I’d also take a 2nd positional shot at Brooks as a future gamble if his injury pushes him into Day3. He’s going to be very dynamic later next season to opening of 2025.

TE I’d go grab a middle-late round TE that can actually block.

CB. 75% Stokes is our CB2 next year. However DB depth is so valuable you near always keep them pipelined. Anywhere between Rd1-RD4 depending on value to my board. If I’m pushed into day 3 then I’d draft 2

OT. It’s a top 2 need and has to be addressed by late Day 2 worst case. Preferably a top 50 selection

iDL isn’t a primary need, but if a good option presents itself as early as later Day 2 I’d maybe go there

WR is the deepest position in this draft class. I think I counted 20+ Wideouts valued by that 4th round Comp area. There are WR value thick across each round in the 2024 draft. Unfortunately we don’t need to cover up our young guys with more. 1 WR is all I’m looking at and that’s if someone slips a round etc. if a top 75 player is in Day 3 sure. If a top 20 player is at 40 overall? sure.

iOL would warrant anything starting Round 2. Such as a C who can play Guard or Vice Versa. We’ve got to get this OL fixed. I’m likely going
LT + iOL in our first 5 selections.

 

[tynimiller]

TL;DR:

1) Cut Bakhtiari and Campbell.
2) Resign Nixon and Owens.
3) Spend on a FA starting safety.
4) Pound OL and RB early and often in the draft.
5) Fill in the gaps throughout the draft.
6) Prosper.

I don't disagree at all with anything you said, and it wasn't until #3 here where I hesitated - I fear spending big FA money, but you didn't say big so I'm 100% on board with this. I actually have a sneaky suspicion the one draft pick people don't see coming is a high end LB selected due to Campbell likely getting cut.

 

[tynimiller]

One could make the argument this was the year to hit the restart button in the RB room given how we are everywhere else...but I think I could almost make the argument I'd fully embrace Gute can Co leaving the 4th round with two running backs already picked and our RB reset. Imagine say a Trey Benson or Bucky Irving along with Audric Estime type backfield....I really like the sounds of that.

 

[Firethorn1001]

I don't see them making any splashes in 2024 in FA (nor probably should they) although safety is one area that I wouldn't mind they spend a moderate sum on to get someone back there. They will still have some contracts that might need to come off the books in 2024 (Bakh, Jones, Campbell, Smith). Love is looking like he is going to get paid sometime in the next year.

If they were truly interested in trading for Taylor, have to believe that RB is going to be a priority for them. (Gotta believe 1 is getting drafted in the 2nd or 3rd). Would be nice to get 2 in the draft and try to keep either Dillon or Jones around as a veteran presence.

Can't disagree with OL/RB/S being the priority though, possibly even CB because I'm not sure about Alexander at this point.

 

[PikeBadger]

Sounds like a position switch for Dillon.

What's Jeff Janis doing these days?

Deer hunting

 

[tynimiller]

Deer hunting

And I believe he runs an auto related business no?

 

[PikeBadger]

One could make the argument this was the year to hit the restart button in the RB room given how we are everywhere else...but I think I could almost make the argument I'd fully embrace Gute can Co leaving the 4th round with two running backs already picked and our RB reset. Imagine say a Trey Benson or Bucky Irving along with Audric Estime type backfield....I really like the sounds of that.

Imo, LaFleur has not used his RB's enough this season. The injury to Jones was a killer. Strength & Conditioning coaches screwed up imo.

 

[El Guapo]

And I believe he runs an auto related business no?

Is it Kars 4 Kids?

 

[PikeBadger]

And I believe he runs an auto related business no?

When he isn't deer hunting?

 

[PikeBadger]

I hope we keep one of the RB's. Love could use the continuity.

 

[El Guapo]

Imo, LaFleur has not used his RB's enough this season. The injury to Jones was a killer. Strength & Conditioning coaches screwed up imo.

Jones has had injury issues his entire career. Besides, he could be eating Fritos every day instead of feeding his body what it needs. What shred of evidence do you have that they screwed up?

For the record - I'm not defending them but am always highly skeptical when people blame the staff for injuries.

 

[tynimiller]

I hope we keep one of the RB's. Love could use the continuity.

Unless Jones allows them to just absolutely shred his current contract, it will be Dillon if one comes back IMO. Dillon won't make bank, and like Jamaal I think if Gute and Co hit him with a reasonable contract for two or three years he'd take it to stay and have continuity.

 

[Firethorn1001]

I'm not defending them but am always highly skeptical when people blame the staff for injuries.

Its the NFL equivalent to baseball's 'Fire the hitting coach'. Just someone to want to fire.

Is there anything really unique or different about strength and conditioning coaches in the NFL? Are there any strength and conditioning coaches that come in and say 'We have this completely unique thing that the other 31 teams aren't doing" which blows up in their face and they deserve to be fired? Seems like it would be something fairly standardized.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't disagree at all with anything you said, and it wasn't until #3 here where I hesitated - I fear spending big FA money, but you didn't say big so I'm 100% on board with this. I actually have a sneaky suspicion the one draft pick people don't see coming is a high end LB selected due to Campbell likely getting cut.

Why would we cut him only to pay him $11.628mil not to play? That doesn’t equate with me at all. Maybe I’m missing something idk

The only Avenue IF we were to send him packing is a Post June trade and eating 3.7mil. Obviously we’d have to prioritize LB in the draft, which I have no problem with because that scenario would free up about
$8-10mil

 

[tynimiller]

Why would we cut him only to pay him $11.628mil not to play? That doesn’t equate with me at all. Maybe I’m missing something idk

The only Avenue IF we were to send him packing is a Post June trade and eating 3.7mil. Obviously we’d have to prioritize LB in the draft, which I have no problem with because that scenario would free up about
$8-10mil

Correct likely scenario if we did cut him would be a post June.

Gute if anything has proven he will cut you or not resign you if he doesn’t see you as part of the future.

I likely foresee 2024 as Campbells last year IF he plays with us. I would not be shocked one bit if off season decisions and draft lead to him not being a Packer entering camp.

It would however still save us over $3M cutting him even prior to June 1st. Doesn't seem like much but many forget it also wipes future costs too and eats their whole remaining dead cap then

 

[Half Empty]

How about the $8 mil cap hit in '25?

 

[PikeBadger]

Jones has had injury issues his entire career. Besides, he could be eating Fritos every day instead of feeding his body what it needs. What shred of evidence do you have that they screwed up?

For the record - I'm not defending them but am always highly skeptical when people blame the staff for injuries.

Too many hamstring problems from too many starters at the beginning of the season. Never seen anything like it.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Too many hamstring problems from too many starters at the beginning of the season. Never seen anything like it.

In looking at the injury reports for teams, I don't see that much of a difference in the Packers vs other teams this year let alone some historic catastrophe. The Packers have had 3 players with hamstring injuries that I see where they have missed time - Anderson, Jones, Watson. The Vikings have seen JJ and Nailor out, Lions with Gibbs, Mitchell out and the Bears with a few guys. WR/RBs are just hit with the hamstring bug more than other positions. Anything from training camp is just whatever, teams really are cautious in the preseason so any tweak or twinge guys sit out.

Sans backing data to suggest the Packers are truly snake bit, I just think it is one of those old wives tales that get tossed around. Kind of like everyone joking that Gute will trade all of his picks for an extra 7th rounder to draft a long snapper then giggle (tee hee hee) even though it is not based in any true fact or data.