2023 Contract Years...

Heyjoe4

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Lot of discussions of the future, and for good reason, are occurring across the Packer landscape...Love proves to potentially be a future Packer guy to hitch the wagon too causes a trickle affect outside of his position....he falls flat on his face a massive actual rebuild may unfold.

With that in mind 2023 is not just a big year for him....but many others. Just for reference here are the list of guys that are in actual contract years and potentially "current contract" year type guys:

Actual last year in contract guys:

AJ DILLON
- If he is everything he showed in 2021, GB would be smart to find a way to keep him....and he 100% wants to be here - which he has doubled down on recently in the news via quotes from his very mouth.

RASHAN GARY - I suspect Gary's camp hasn't signed an extension yet due to him wanting to prove further yet he is everything he was prior to injury, now after. If he is, Gary extension almost has to happen...

DARNELL SAVAGE - Contract year...but I wonder just what kind of contract he could even play his way into...he does well, there is still massive roller coaster years on his resume...for the life of me I kinda just want off even if I'm ecstatic for him if he is having a good 2023 season. I'm also in the club of paying a hungry Ford / Leavitt / Nixon / Moore or Owens should one emerge with promise at this point.

JOSIAH DEGUARA - Even if Musgrave and Kraft seem to click...what is the best pairing with their TE types? A true solid H Back variant, at Josiah's ceiling he is everything to our offense Kyle Juszczyk is for the niners...at his worst he is replaceable with an athletic smaller TE or athletic throwback FB type in next year's draft. Many know I love what Deguara brings to the table and IMO when the bell has rung for him he has delivered true TE 2 and TE 3 numbers. His role won't command a ton and Gute and Co. would know the TE cost is going to be low for a sometime outside him with Kraft and Musgrave just drafted - 2023 could lock Deguara into a team friendly (but also security for him) two or three year deal which is easily defendable from both sides.

YOSH NIJMAN - I still argue Yosh is perhaps the most pure profitable trade candidate on our roster in that he plays a highly impactful position, has proven NFL starts on his resume, comes with a low cap hit to the acquiring team, is still under 28 years old.....if a competitor has a tackle go down there is a solid chance you might be able to spin this UDFA who is making only $4M this year into a 3rd round pick...or picture a package deal of Yosh and say a 5th or 4th for a teams 2nd rounder...Yosh is playing this year for a big pay day...but shockingly Zach Tom could block him from being in the starting 5.

PAT O'DONNELL - Contract year for this 32 year old punter to me, that if he has a solid year I think Bisaccia could give the nod to Gute that says "Keep what we know works...".

KEISEAN NIXON - They brought him back on a one year "prove 2022 wasn't a fluke" type deal and a chance to prove he is more than just a lethal ST weapon. Nixon proves that...I think we get bid out of the Nixon FA discussions next year....if he proves to come down to earth and be middle of the road defender....that's worst case and tough to decide a future move on.

JON RUNYAN - Runyan has been Mr. Consistent since coming here....however sadly while perhaps progressing each year, it has been very incremental IMO. This high floor, NFL experienced starter to me is tough to speculate the risk of letting him dabble in FA may bring. I know Gute and Co. are VERY happy with the OL room and perhaps that belief makes letting Runyan walk regardless the most likely future. Runyan however is for sure playing for some future cheddar for sure.

JONATHAN GARVIN - I think his undersized nature has caught up with him...and that time we had to use him he overachieved rather than showed what he actually could be. Garvin is however that perfect guy to bring back on a minimum deal to flesh out the backend of the OLB room if you should lose say Smith or perhaps vets like Hollins don't come back next year at that same level of the depth chart but more proven future.

Johnathan RUD FORD - Ford to me has the absolute most money on the table if you will (as I personally think Gary already has much more for sure happening)...Ford could play himself out of the league or get starting level safety offer as he is still under the age of 28...showed flashes of starting level play, 2023 will prove it or not.

DALLIN LEAVITT - ST gamer, nothing more - nor do I expect more.

JUSTIN HOLLINS - Depth guy with experience....he isn't 28 yet though, while Gary is out and LVN is a rookie learning, Hollins is playing for some money for sure!

ERIC WILSON - Carbon copy of the above Hollins scenario.

COREY BALLENTINE - Essentially same concept as the two above, but instead of Gary and LVN insert Stokes and a Nixon chance situation.

TARVARIUS MOORE - Safety is wide open for him to play into something!

JONATHAN OWENS - Exactly the same as above!

TYLER GOODSON - This man is playing for the post- Jones and Dillon era for sure!

JAKE HANSON - He may not even see the 53 this year with Jones, Walker, Rhyan and more having a say.

FEW MORE I DEEMED NOT WORTH MENTIONING.

These are guys given their future hits or contract situations I also put on the list of "contract" year:

Aaron Jones - we all understand it and so does he...which is why the restructure for this year happened....another one is coming or a cut after this year - how he does and how healthy he is all year will control the outcome I bet. (Dillon and a 3rd RB may as well be a big factor out of his control).

David Bakhtiari - Contract and age becoming more and more a factor...of course health also.

Kenny Clark - I put him here more because I think only an enticing trade plucks him...but this dudes cap hit is getting BIG next year (more than double this year)...with massive void years already.

Jordan Love - Obvious one....while I think he sees GB in 2024 regardless, he could be seeing it from behind Caleb Williams or another if he doesn't show out.

Preston Smith - His contract was very easily separated from and his play is still NFL starter level....however, any sign of dabbling with that age cliff he is easily cut...albeit really beneficial come 2025.
Good summary as usual Ty, thanks. The discussion on Nijman made me realize that 1) the starting OL is very good and 2) there is decent depth. The big "but" in here is that GB won't be able to keep them all if they continue to improve (they're already, for the most part, very good).

Good problem to have. My only other comment is that Kenny Clark is getting older. I don't mean that just to state the obvious, but it's better to let a guy go one year too soon, blah, blah. I think that means a trade after 2023. So a lot depends on younger guys on the DL stepping up. I'm looking at Wyatt.
 
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tynimiller

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Good summary as usual Ty, thanks. The discussion on Nijman made me realize that 1) the starting OL is very good and 2) there is decent depth. The big "but" in here is that GB won't be able to keep them all if they continue to improve (they're already, for the most part, very good).

Good problem to have. My only other comment is that Kenny Clark is getting older. I don't mean that just to state the obvious, but it's better to let a guy go one year too soon, blah, blah. I think that means a trade after 2023. So a lot depends on younger guys on the DL stepping up. I'm looking at Wyatt.

So I also see a future where Clark perhaps is a trade piece in a massive deal for something we feel is a much more glaring need for the future...BUT....A MASSIVE BUT...is for that to be something which IMO would have any smart basis for you have to see Wyatt deliver what so many folks thought he could be when drafted AND you gotta see at minimum a steady eddy Dean Lowry type for sure out of a Slaton or Colby or Karl Brooks this season. You cannot let Clark go unless you got two for sure 2024 NFL bonafide starters in your room with some ascending depth perhaps behind or plan for veteran FA acquisitions.

BUT - Clark and Preston Smith both if they have solid years in 2023 each might be solid trade bait of the variety of as you said "be a year early rather than a year late"...I would despise this however from a fan stance as I love both of them, but acknowledge the thought process of it and justification even if it should come to pass.
 

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I am not as sold on Dillon as you are. IMO this is a big year for him as far as contract value and length.
 
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tynimiller

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I am not as sold on Dillon as you are. IMO this is a big year for him as far as contract value and length.

The only way I'm not extending Dillon personally if I'm Gute is if MLF and staff has told me that Tyler Goodson is a RB2 of the future in their opinion. If that is the case then I also would let 2023 play out and realize if Dillon just puts forth a third straight year of being productive as he has he won't be returning because his cost is only going to go up. Likewise however, if staff tells me Goodson is that, then the argument could also exist to save the money in future of being done with Jones rather than Dillon from a RB style standpoint as Goodson does or is much more like Jones than Dillon in what he does and offers.

The good news is the Packers have style wise a contingency plan for both Jones and Dillon...Goodson to Jones and Lew to Dillon...with Taylor being really a neither and both type. That is why I personally think no extension will be done on Dillon till in season...later on at that IMO.
 

Heyjoe4

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So I also see a future where Clark perhaps is a trade piece in a massive deal for something we feel is a much more glaring need for the future...BUT....A MASSIVE BUT...is for that to be something which IMO would have any smart basis for you have to see Wyatt deliver what so many folks thought he could be when drafted AND you gotta see at minimum a steady eddy Dean Lowry type for sure out of a Slaton or Colby or Karl Brooks this season. You cannot let Clark go unless you got two for sure 2024 NFL bonafide starters in your room with some ascending depth perhaps behind or plan for veteran FA acquisitions.

BUT - Clark and Preston Smith both if they have solid years in 2023 each might be solid trade bait of the variety of as you said "be a year early rather than a year late"...I would despise this however from a fan stance as I love both of them, but acknowledge the thought process of it and justification even if it should come to pass.
Good point. A year early or not they can't trade Clark unless someone as good, or almost as good, is coming up behind him. That's most likely to be Wyatt, maybe Slaton, ideally both. I just don't see it with Lowry.

And yes indeed, getting Gary back as soon as possible, and getting a great rookie season out of Van Ness might facilitate a Smith trade.

And same sentiment here. I really like these guys and they define "Packer". In the end though it's all about winning, and that usually means younger players.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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Good point. A year early or not they can't trade Clark unless someone as good, or almost as good, is coming up behind him. That's most likely to be Wyatt, maybe Slaton, ideally both. I just don't see it with Lowry.

And yes indeed, getting Gary back as soon as possible, and getting a great rookie season out of Van Ness might facilitate a Smith trade.

And same sentiment here. I really like these guys and they define "Packer". In the end though it's all about winning, and that usually means younger players.

Lowry is gone, what I was saying was you need one of our young guys along to illustrate at WORST they'll provide that consistent play Lowry did for years for us along with Wyatt shining as a stud.
 

RicFlairoftheNFL

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Hypothetical question....if Dillon and his agent came to you and said look 'David Montgomery got 3 years / $18M with just just shy of $8.75M guaranteed. I want to be in GB, but believe I'm of similar value. What if we did 3 years / $16M / $9.75M guaranteed for taking less?"

Do you put pen to paper at that number?

Personally, we all know Jones is gonna need another rework to his, but in an era where we clearly will have low cost WR room if all goes well for at minimum two more years (Watson blows up he would be an early extension candidate) I like the move personally...if Dillon would tack a fourth year on with not a terribly bigger bump...say to $20M over four with maybe $10M guarantee...as my counter I would eliminate a position of worry that is crucial to a young QB succeeding. The day will come when we have to sign WRs, and a year before that comes due is the year I start with a Day 2 RB draftee or early Day 3.
I'd guarantee 10 at that number
 

Heyjoe4

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I am not as sold on Dillon as you are. IMO this is a big year for him as far as contract value and length.
Dillon has certainly had his moments. He has a very different running style than Jones. That said, Jones has been the most consistent. So yeah, I like Dillon, but I wouldn't give him RB1 money.
 

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Good point. A year early or not they can't trade Clark unless someone as good, or almost as good, is coming up behind him. That's most likely to be Wyatt, maybe Slaton, ideally both. I just don't see it with Lowry.

And yes indeed, getting Gary back as soon as possible, and getting a great rookie season out of Van Ness might facilitate a Smith trade.

And same sentiment here. I really like these guys and they define "Packer". In the end though it's all about winning, and that usually means younger players.
A lot of people think Van Ness is a project, not unlike Gary was. They say he has raw talent, but needs to be coached up to reach that potential. It took Gary two years to arrive at the point where he was productive. That doesn't mean he's a wasted pick, but you have to remember he wasn't even a starter in college. He just has the characteristics and measurable potential to say he could be a good one. We'll see. It's going to tell us a lot as to how good Gute is at selecting horse flesh.
 

gopkrs

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A lot of people think Van Ness is a project, not unlike Gary was. They say he has raw talent, but needs to be coached up to reach that potential. It took Gary two years to arrive at the point where he was productive. That doesn't mean he's a wasted pick, but you have to remember he wasn't even a starter in college. He just has the characteristics and measurable potential to say he could be a good one. We'll see. It's going to tell us a lot as to how good Gute is at selecting horse flesh.
Hopefully then he'll be able to play some inside
 

milani

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Lot of discussions of the future, and for good reason, are occurring across the Packer landscape...Love proves to potentially be a future Packer guy to hitch the wagon too causes a trickle affect outside of his position....he falls flat on his face a massive actual rebuild may unfold.

With that in mind 2023 is not just a big year for him....but many others. Just for reference here are the list of guys that are in actual contract years and potentially "current contract" year type guys:

Actual last year in contract guys:

AJ DILLON
- If he is everything he showed in 2021, GB would be smart to find a way to keep him....and he 100% wants to be here - which he has doubled down on recently in the news via quotes from his very mouth.

RASHAN GARY - I suspect Gary's camp hasn't signed an extension yet due to him wanting to prove further yet he is everything he was prior to injury, now after. If he is, Gary extension almost has to happen...

DARNELL SAVAGE - Contract year...but I wonder just what kind of contract he could even play his way into...he does well, there is still massive roller coaster years on his resume...for the life of me I kinda just want off even if I'm ecstatic for him if he is having a good 2023 season. I'm also in the club of paying a hungry Ford / Leavitt / Nixon / Moore or Owens should one emerge with promise at this point.

JOSIAH DEGUARA - Even if Musgrave and Kraft seem to click...what is the best pairing with their TE types? A true solid H Back variant, at Josiah's ceiling he is everything to our offense Kyle Juszczyk is for the niners...at his worst he is replaceable with an athletic smaller TE or athletic throwback FB type in next year's draft. Many know I love what Deguara brings to the table and IMO when the bell has rung for him he has delivered true TE 2 and TE 3 numbers. His role won't command a ton and Gute and Co. would know the TE cost is going to be low for a sometime outside him with Kraft and Musgrave just drafted - 2023 could lock Deguara into a team friendly (but also security for him) two or three year deal which is easily defendable from both sides.

YOSH NIJMAN - I still argue Yosh is perhaps the most pure profitable trade candidate on our roster in that he plays a highly impactful position, has proven NFL starts on his resume, comes with a low cap hit to the acquiring team, is still under 28 years old.....if a competitor has a tackle go down there is a solid chance you might be able to spin this UDFA who is making only $4M this year into a 3rd round pick...or picture a package deal of Yosh and say a 5th or 4th for a teams 2nd rounder...Yosh is playing this year for a big pay day...but shockingly Zach Tom could block him from being in the starting 5.

PAT O'DONNELL - Contract year for this 32 year old punter to me, that if he has a solid year I think Bisaccia could give the nod to Gute that says "Keep what we know works...".

KEISEAN NIXON - They brought him back on a one year "prove 2022 wasn't a fluke" type deal and a chance to prove he is more than just a lethal ST weapon. Nixon proves that...I think we get bid out of the Nixon FA discussions next year....if he proves to come down to earth and be middle of the road defender....that's worst case and tough to decide a future move on.

JON RUNYAN - Runyan has been Mr. Consistent since coming here....however sadly while perhaps progressing each year, it has been very incremental IMO. This high floor, NFL experienced starter to me is tough to speculate the risk of letting him dabble in FA may bring. I know Gute and Co. are VERY happy with the OL room and perhaps that belief makes letting Runyan walk regardless the most likely future. Runyan however is for sure playing for some future cheddar for sure.

JONATHAN GARVIN - I think his undersized nature has caught up with him...and that time we had to use him he overachieved rather than showed what he actually could be. Garvin is however that perfect guy to bring back on a minimum deal to flesh out the backend of the OLB room if you should lose say Smith or perhaps vets like Hollins don't come back next year at that same level of the depth chart but more proven future.

Johnathan RUD FORD - Ford to me has the absolute most money on the table if you will (as I personally think Gary already has much more for sure happening)...Ford could play himself out of the league or get starting level safety offer as he is still under the age of 28...showed flashes of starting level play, 2023 will prove it or not.

DALLIN LEAVITT - ST gamer, nothing more - nor do I expect more.

JUSTIN HOLLINS - Depth guy with experience....he isn't 28 yet though, while Gary is out and LVN is a rookie learning, Hollins is playing for some money for sure!

ERIC WILSON - Carbon copy of the above Hollins scenario.

COREY BALLENTINE - Essentially same concept as the two above, but instead of Gary and LVN insert Stokes and a Nixon chance situation.

TARVARIUS MOORE - Safety is wide open for him to play into something!

JONATHAN OWENS - Exactly the same as above!

TYLER GOODSON - This man is playing for the post- Jones and Dillon era for sure!

JAKE HANSON - He may not even see the 53 this year with Jones, Walker, Rhyan and more having a say.

FEW MORE I DEEMED NOT WORTH MENTIONING.

These are guys given their future hits or contract situations I also put on the list of "contract" year:

Aaron Jones - we all understand it and so does he...which is why the restructure for this year happened....another one is coming or a cut after this year - how he does and how healthy he is all year will control the outcome I bet. (Dillon and a 3rd RB may as well be a big factor out of his control).

David Bakhtiari - Contract and age becoming more and more a factor...of course health also.

Kenny Clark - I put him here more because I think only an enticing trade plucks him...but this dudes cap hit is getting BIG next year (more than double this year)...with massive void years already.

Jordan Love - Obvious one....while I think he sees GB in 2024 regardless, he could be seeing it from behind Caleb Williams or another if he doesn't show out.

Preston Smith - His contract was very easily separated from and his play is still NFL starter level....however, any sign of dabbling with that age cliff he is easily cut...albeit really beneficial come 2025.
Outstanding review! Thank you. Will Gary be the same or will his healing process be like Bahktiari. And you are right about Bahktiari. Will his body hold out? I think of top Packer OL over the last two decades and I think of Mark Tauscher, Mike Flanagan, and Chad Clifton. Late in their careers one game injury sealed their deal.
 

Heyjoe4

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Hopefully then he'll be able to play some inside
Agree, I hope he can slide inside as well.

That seems to be a trend - big, athletic LBs and DLs who can set an edge, fill in running gaps, and get after the QB. It's amazing the 40 times being turned in by 300 lb OL and DL guys as well as their flexibility and height. And it also makes football that much more dangerous......
 

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Agree, I hope he can slide inside as well.

That seems to be a trend - big, athletic LBs and DLs who can set an edge, fill in running gaps, and get after the QB. It's amazing the 40 times being turned in by 300 lb OL and DL guys as well as their flexibility and height. And it also makes football that much more dangerous......
The beer belly down d-lineman of the past is history. Now, they're lean and mean, some even really athletes. There was a time, they weren't that athletic, just huge, and strong.

I remember stories about guys back over 75 years ago taking off-season jobs with breweries, delivering cases and barrels of beer, to "get in shape." Of course, part of that "get in shape" program, on their part, was having a cool brew with barkeeps in almost every joint they delivered.
 
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Hypothetical question....if Dillon and his agent came to you and said look 'David Montgomery got 3 years / $18M with just just shy of $8.75M guaranteed. I want to be in GB, but believe I'm of similar value. What if we did 3 years / $16M / $9.75M guaranteed for taking less?"

Do you put pen to paper at that number?

Personally, we all know Jones is gonna need another rework to his, but in an era where we clearly will have low cost WR room if all goes well for at minimum two more years (Watson blows up he would be an early extension candidate) I like the move personally...if Dillon would tack a fourth year on with not a terribly bigger bump...say to $20M over four with maybe $10M guarantee...as my counter I would eliminate a position of worry that is crucial to a young QB succeeding. The day will come when we have to sign WRs, and a year before that comes due is the year I start with a Day 2 RB draftee or early Day 3.

The Packers should definitely not sign a backup running back to a deal anywhere close to that. It's all but certain that Jones will be back next season as well, therefore there's no need to overpay for Dillon at all.

Good summary as usual Ty, thanks. The discussion on Nijman made me realize that 1) the starting OL is very good and 2) there is decent depth.

A lot of fans might end up being surprised how much having Rodgers as the quarterback covered up for some shortcomings on the offensive line.
 
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tynimiller

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The Packers should definitely not sign a backup running back to a deal anywhere close to that. It's all but certain that Jones will be back next season as well, therefore there's no need to overpay for Dillon at all.



A lot of fans might end up being surprised how much having Rodgers as the quarterback covered up for some shortcomings on the offensive line.

If you don't want to pay two running backs that's one thing, however again look at production of other running backs that got deals in the past year or so. His production is right on par with that actually being slightly less arguably than he should get according to even the descending RB market. So disagree with the potential signing, I get that, but to claim that is an overpay for his services doesn't seem supported by other contracts. If he stays consistent in what he's producing I bet he takes more to sign sadly - to which for the record if they have to let him walk for fiscal reasons it will for sure be justified.
 

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If you don't want to pay two running backs that's one thing, however again look at production of other running backs that got deals in the past year or so. His production is right on par with that actually being slightly less arguably than he should get according to even the descending RB market. So disagree with the potential signing, I get that, but to claim that is an overpay for his services doesn't seem supported by other contracts. If he stays consistent in what he's producing I bet he takes more to sign sadly - to which for the record if they have to let him walk for fiscal reasons it will for sure be justified.
Ty - I would be happy if Dillon took a 3 year contract for $16 mil. I think his value on the FA market will be a lot higher. The Packers will have a tough decision to make. Guys like Dillon, who can get the hard yards and avoid injury are rare.

I gotta wonder how much longer Jones has in GB. First of all, the guy is a fabulous Packer and clear fan favorite - oh and he produces. As long as he's around 1,000 yards running, 1300 - 1500 all purpose, and healthy, no problem. But damn he takes some hits. He's elusive and avoids a lot of hits, but the position is the hardest to play in football, IMO.
 
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If you don't want to pay two running backs that's one thing, however again look at production of other running backs that got deals in the past year or so. His production is right on par with that actually being slightly less arguably than he should get according to even the descending RB market. So disagree with the potential signing, I get that, but to claim that is an overpay for his services doesn't seem supported by other contracts. If he stays consistent in what he's producing I bet he takes more to sign sadly - to which for the record if they have to let him walk for fiscal reasons it will for sure be justified.

There are currently only 15 running backs in the league who make more than $5.33 million per season. I don't consider it smart to pay a backup that kind of money.
 
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tynimiller

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There are currently only 15 running backs in the league who make more than $5.33 million per season. I don't consider it smart to pay a backup that kind of money.

You still aren't grasping what I'm saying, given his production and metrics - IF you want AJ Dillon in Green Bay you're paying that man money, not chump change back up level money but above average or median level pay unless he truly means what he says in that he wants to be a Packer and door county resident.

David Montgomery at the Bears is the epitome of comp for Dillon. He is vastly more efficient than David even who was a 3 year $18M guy contract wise with $8M guaranteed. Below compares them and bold lines are the guy that wins that column. David is arguably near or around the top of what Dillon could use and escalate a year for his contract.

AttemptsRushYdsY/ARushTDsTDs/ATargetsReceptionsCtch%RecYdsYds/RecRecTDsTDs/RecYards/Touch
AJ Dillon41918154.33140.033826478.0%5408.442
0.031
4.9
David Montgomery91536093.94260.02819415579.9%12408.004
0.026​
4.5

Gus Edwards is another comp - Dillon has 2,355 total yards over three years while Gus over four years has 2779 yards. So yards per year Dillon has him beat by nearly 200 yards a year of production. Efficiency though Gus is rushing at a higher percentage, but his receiving is such a tiny sample size I bet most would struggle to yield to it as statistically enough of a sample size but here it as well compared, again bolded are the guy that wins that column. Gus was a 2 year / $9M guy and the floor IMO of what GB would be able to reasonably offer Dillon

AttemptsRushYdsY/ARushTDsTDs/ATargetsReceptionsCtch%RecYdsYds/RecRecTDsTDs/RecYards/Touch
AJ Dillon41918154.33140.033826478.0%5408.4420.0314.9
Gus Edwards50125855.16130.026241875.0%19410.7800.0005.4

Miles Sanders is like the best of both the above and to me is the absolute ceiling and the contract I bet Dillon's agent presents at 4 years / $25.4M

Them compared below:

AttemptsRushYdsY/ARushTDsTDs/ATargetsReceptionsCtch%RecYdsYds/RecRecTDsTDs/RecYards/Touch
AJ Dillon41918154.33140.033826478.0%5408.4420.0314.9
Miles Sanders73937085.02200.02717512470.9%9427.6030.0245.4
 
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tynimiller

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Another would be Cordarrelle Patterson despite his age got 2 years $10.5M....look at their three years below:

LAST THREE YEARSAttemptsRushYdsY/ARushTDsTDs/ATargetsReceptionsCtch%RecYdsYds/RecRecTDsTDs/RecYards/Touch
AJ Dillon41918154.33140.033826478.0%5408.4420.0314.9
Cordarrelle Patterson36115454.28150.0421259475.2%8028.5350.0535.2
 

Voyageur

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As much as comparing stats to determine salary offered, consider the relevance of the player in conjunction with the offense the team runs, and how he fits into that mold.

A guy could be considered overpaid if he got more, but might get more because he's a prototype for the team offering the contract. It's a sliding scale of worth versus need, and it can change quite a bit, depending on those factors and another, important issue. Cap room.
 

Heyjoe4

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As much as comparing stats to determine salary offered, consider the relevance of the player in conjunction with the offense the team runs, and how he fits into that mold.

A guy could be considered overpaid if he got more, but might get more because he's a prototype for the team offering the contract. It's a sliding scale of worth versus need, and it can change quite a bit, depending on those factors and another, important issue. Cap room.
Good point. I've seen Dillon referenced as a "backup" in GB and don't agree with that. Jones and Dillon have different styles. They're both effective in different ways. I'd be happy if Dillon would sign for 3 years at $18 mil. My guess is that he'll want more, but he clearly likes his life in WI and might take less. But why should he have to?
 
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tynimiller

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As much as comparing stats to determine salary offered, consider the relevance of the player in conjunction with the offense the team runs, and how he fits into that mold.

A guy could be considered overpaid if he got more, but might get more because he's a prototype for the team offering the contract. It's a sliding scale of worth versus need, and it can change quite a bit, depending on those factors and another, important issue. Cap room.

Of course, but neither team, player or agent don't look at performance and what someone is/has been.
 

Heyjoe4

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Of course, but neither team, player or agent don't look at performance and what someone is/has been.
For players who are just above average, FA can get them a lot more money than they're worth. The point is that FA kinda sets the price for a position, and there isn't much deviation from that in creating new contracts.

When Adams left he was the first WR to get $30 mil. That's the new floor for elite WRs. It's probably true for the whole roster, albeit at lower prices for lesser talent. FA artificially inflates players worth IMO.
 

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