2023 Contract Years...

tynimiller

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Lot of discussions of the future, and for good reason, are occurring across the Packer landscape...Love proves to potentially be a future Packer guy to hitch the wagon too causes a trickle affect outside of his position....he falls flat on his face a massive actual rebuild may unfold.

With that in mind 2023 is not just a big year for him....but many others. Just for reference here are the list of guys that are in actual contract years and potentially "current contract" year type guys:

Actual last year in contract guys:

AJ DILLON
- If he is everything he showed in 2021, GB would be smart to find a way to keep him....and he 100% wants to be here - which he has doubled down on recently in the news via quotes from his very mouth. DILLON HAS NOT BEEN BAD AND NOT BEEN GOOD EITHER...I SUSPECT UNLESS HE'S WILLING TO SIGN FOR TRUE BACK UP MONEY HE IS GONE, WHICH HE HAS A CASE (OUTLINED IN THIS THREAD) FOR TAKING MORE SLIGHTLY AT LEAST. (1/2/2024)

RASHAN GARY - I suspect Gary's camp hasn't signed an extension yet due to him wanting to prove further yet he is everything he was prior to injury, now after. If he is, Gary extension almost has to happen...SINCE OP HIS EXTENSION HAS HAPPENED - WHICH EVERYONE SAW COMING (1/2/2024)

DARNELL SAVAGE - Contract year...but I wonder just what kind of contract he could even play his way into...he does well, there is still massive roller coaster years on his resume...for the life of me I kinda just want off even if I'm ecstatic for him if he is having a good 2023 season. I'm also in the club of paying a hungry Ford / Leavitt / Nixon / Moore or Owens should one emerge with promise at this point. SAD THING IS SAVAGE ISN'T OUR WORST SAFETY...IF HE IS BACK IT IS NO LONGER AT THE COST HE HAS BEEN DUE TO THE SWING AND MISS ON HIS FIFTH YEAR OPTION...I SUSPECT WE AND HIM BOTH NEEDS TO AGREE TO PART WAYS AND NOT EVEN ENTER INTO NEGOTIATIONS. (1/2/2024)

JOSIAH DEGUARA - Even if Musgrave and Kraft seem to click...what is the best pairing with their TE types? A true solid H Back variant, at Josiah's ceiling he is everything to our offense Kyle Juszczyk is for the niners...at his worst he is replaceable with an athletic smaller TE or athletic throwback FB type in next year's draft. Many know I love what Deguara brings to the table and IMO when the bell has rung for him he has delivered true TE 2 and TE 3 numbers. His role won't command a ton and Gute and Co. would know the TE cost is going to be low for a sometime outside him with Kraft and Musgrave just drafted - 2023 could lock Deguara into a team friendly (but also security for him) two or three year deal which is easily defendable from both sides. HE IS DONE, HE HAS SHOWN HE CANNOT EVEN BE THE H-BACK GUY THIS YEAR. NEW CHEAPER ROOKIE OPTION WITH GROWTH SHOULD OCCUR (1/2/2024)

YOSH NIJMAN - I still argue Yosh is perhaps the most pure profitable trade candidate on our roster in that he plays a highly impactful position, has proven NFL starts on his resume, comes with a low cap hit to the acquiring team, is still under 28 years old.....if a competitor has a tackle go down there is a solid chance you might be able to spin this UDFA who is making only $4M this year into a 3rd round pick...or picture a package deal of Yosh and say a 5th or 4th for a teams 2nd rounder...Yosh is playing this year for a big pay day...but shockingly Zach Tom could block him from being in the starting 5. YOSH HAS PLAYED HIS WAY OUT OF THE ROSTER OR A RESIGNING I FEEL. (1/2/2024)

PAT O'DONNELL - Contract year for this 32 year old punter to me, that if he has a solid year I think Bisaccia could give the nod to Gute that says "Keep what we know works...". WHELAN IS HERE, NON-ISUE NOW.

KEISEAN NIXON - They brought him back on a one year "prove 2022 wasn't a fluke" type deal and a chance to prove he is more than just a lethal ST weapon. Nixon proves that...I think we get bid out of the Nixon FA discussions next year....if he proves to come down to earth and be middle of the road defender....that's worst case and tough to decide a future move on. I DON'T PERSONALLY SEE HIS SLOT PLAY WORTHY OF A CONTRACT, BUT HIS ST VALUE MIXED WITH HIS AT TIMES SOLID SLOT PLAY ARGUES OTHERWISE....ISSUE IS FOR SUCH A LEAGUE LEADING RETURNER YOU ALWAYS WILL PAY A PREMIUM TOUCH MORE...IF WE ARE GOING TO SIGN I THINK NEEDS TO JUST BE A TWO OR THREE YEAR DEAL AND BE DONE. (1/2/2024)

JON RUNYAN - Runyan has been Mr. Consistent since coming here....however sadly while perhaps progressing each year, it has been very incremental IMO. This high floor, NFL experienced starter to me is tough to speculate the risk of letting him dabble in FA may bring. I know Gute and Co. are VERY happy with the OL room and perhaps that belief makes letting Runyan walk regardless the most likely future. Runyan however is for sure playing for some future cheddar for sure. RHYAN HAS SHOWN HE AT MINIMUM ISN'T A DOWNGRADE IN MANY WAYS WITH THIS BOTH PLAYING THING...ZERO REASON TO RESIGN RUNYAN UNLESS YOU PREMMATURELY CUT MYERS AND THINK RUNYAN IS YOUR CENTER AND NOT TOM NEXT SEASON. (1/2/2024)

JONATHAN GARVIN - I think his undersized nature has caught up with him...and that time we had to use him he overachieved rather than showed what he actually could be. Garvin is however that perfect guy to bring back on a minimum deal to flesh out the backend of the OLB room if you should lose say Smith or perhaps vets like Hollins don't come back next year at that same level of the depth chart but more proven future. NOT AN ISSUE ANY LONGER RELEASED (1/2/2024)

Johnathan RUDY FORD - Ford to me has the absolute most money on the table if you will (as I personally think Gary already has much more for sure happening)...Ford could play himself out of the league or get starting level safety offer as he is still under the age of 28...showed flashes of starting level play, 2023 will prove it or not. HAS PLAYED IN 70%+ SNAPS ON DEFENSE SO FAR GOING INTO THE FINAL WEEK...HE AND OWENS ARE BOTH IN THE SAME BOAT TO ME...NEITHER LIGHTING THE WORLD UNFIRE BUT SHOWING LIFE FOR SURE SOME GAMES. ONE OF THEM IS LIKELY BACK AND I COULD EASILY SEE A WORLD WHERE BOTH ARE BUT SHORT CHEAP TYPE DEAL AGAIN I BET. (1/2/2024)

DALLIN LEAVITT - ST gamer, nothing more - nor do I expect more. I FULLY SUPPORT NOT NEEDING HIM...BUT HE IS GOOD ON ST AND IS ONE OF THE FEW WITH OVER 70% OF ST SNAPS PLAYED. IF SIGNED IT AGAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM ONE YEAR DEAL 1/2/2024 LOL cannot believe this as I have him gone in the tracking thread, he was released about 2/3 of the season

JUSTIN HOLLINS - Depth guy with experience....he isn't 28 yet though, while Gary is out and LVN is a rookie learning, Hollins is playing for some money for sure! GONE NO LONGER ISSUE 1/2/2024

ERIC WILSON - Carbon copy of the above Hollins scenario. ROLE/DEPTH...IMO TURN THIS PART OF THE LB ROOM OVER WITH NEW FA OR YOUTH DRAFTED. 1/2/2024

COREY BALLENTINE - Essentially same concept as the two above, but instead of Gary and LVN insert Stokes and a Nixon chance situation. I THINK HE IS MAKING A CASE FOR A NEW CONTRACT...ISSUE IS DO YOU DO MULTIPLE YEAR OR TRY TO CONVINCE HIM ONE YEAR AGAIN...1/2/2024

TARVARIUS MOORE - Safety is wide open for him to play into something! GONE DOESN'T MATTER ANY LONGER 1/2/2024

JONATHAN OWENS - Exactly the same as above! SEE RESPONSE ABOVE TO RUDY FORD 1/2/2024

TYLER GOODSON - This man is playing for the post- Jones and Dillon era for sure! I STRONGLY WANT US TO SEE WHAT HE IS POST-INJURY...KID HAS SOME JUICE AND WIGGLE 1/2/2024

JAKE HANSON - He may not even see the 53 this year with Jones, Walker, Rhyan and more having a say. GONE NOW...FYI HE HAS BEEN STARTING AND PLAYING DECENT FOR THE JETS SINCE WEEK 11.

FEW MORE I DEEMED NOT WORTH MENTIONING.

These are guys given their future hits or contract situations I also put on the list of "contract" year:

Aaron Jones - we all understand it and so does he...which is why the restructure for this year happened....another one is coming or a cut after this year - how he does and how healthy he is all year will control the outcome I bet. (Dillon and a 3rd RB may as well be a big factor out of his control).

David Bakhtiari - Contract and age becoming more and more a factor...of course health also.

Kenny Clark - I put him here more because I think only an enticing trade plucks him...but this dudes cap hit is getting BIG next year (more than double this year)...with massive void years already.

Jordan Love - Obvious one....while I think he sees GB in 2024 regardless, he could be seeing it from behind Caleb Williams or another if he doesn't show out.

Preston Smith - His contract was very easily separated from and his play is still NFL starter level....however, any sign of dabbling with that age cliff he is easily cut...albeit really beneficial come 2025.
 
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I meant to say Good stuff.

Everything kinda hinges on Love
As Long as Jordan doesn’t somehow look terrible in 2023, I think they give him 2 seasons.

The great news is Gutey likely got us another bonus Day 1 selection in the Rodgers trade. He obviously stayed strong and now we know why things dragged on.

IF and I say a big IF… Jordan looked disastrous? We’d most likely have a top 10 or better selection in 2024. Package your late Day 1 and you very likely get a top 2 option at the QB position (worst case 3rd choice and best case 1st choice) We’re covered either way which is GM brilliance. Now. we’d lose $13M guaranteed (worse case) but that’s small potatoes in the QB world


If we Hit solid or big on Jordan Love and look to be trending up.. finish
7-9 Wins or better… we’re loaded with draft capital with 2 Firsts, picking Teens and a plethora of Day 3 options (again). Plus a relatively cheap QB contract at $23m puts us highly active in FA. Expect to resign our key guys and add a Stud or a pair of above average Veterans
 
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FEW MORE I DEEMED NOT WORTH MENTIONING.

These are guys given their future hits or contract situations I also put on the list of "contract" year:

Aaron Jones - we all understand it and so does he...which is why the restructure for this year happened....another one is coming or a cut after this year - how he does and how healthy he is all year will control the outcome I bet. (Dillon and a 3rd RB may as well be a big factor out of his control).

The Packers only save $5 million of cap space by moving on from Jones next year. As long as his performance doesn't significantly drop off this season I fully expect him to be back in 2024.

David Bakhtiari - Contract and age becoming more and more a factor...of course health also.

On the other side I highly doubt there's any chance Bakhtiari will be back in 2024. If the Packers struggle the Packers might be interested in moving him at the trade deadline.

Kenny Clark - I put him here more because I think only an enticing trade plucks him...but this dudes cap hit is getting BIG next year (more than double this year)...with massive void years already.

While Clark's cap hit increases to $27.5 million in 2024 the Packers moving on from him would result in dead money of $24.2 million counting against their cap as well. It might be smart to keep him around considering that.

Preston Smith - His contract was very easily separated from and his play is still NFL starter level....however, any sign of dabbling with that age cliff he is easily cut...albeit really beneficial come 2025.

It's the same as with Clark that the Packers wouldn't save a lot of cap space by moving on from Preston. It's more likely that will happen if he doesn't perform up to his contract anymore though.

Everything kinda hinges on Love
As Long as Jordan doesn’t somehow look terrible in 2023, I think they give him 2 seasons.

I fully expect Love to be given two seasons to prove he's a viable starter in the NFL.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I fully expect Love to be given two seasons to prove he's a viable starter in the NFL.

We agreed nearly or essentially across the board, I will say I do think if Love shows he is a Jamarcus Russel level bust he will not be given two seasons, which is where we disagree on that given what I said.

The only item I'd push some back is IF you are moving on from say a Clark or a Smith it is due to full rebuild button pushed for whatever reason. Get assets back and restart. I concur it is going to need to be a 0-5 start with zero promise type level for this to possibly occur. At least IMO
 
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We agreed nearly or essentially across the board, I will say I do think if Love shows he is a Jamarcus Russel level bust he will not be given two seasons, which is where we disagree on that given what I said.

The only item I'd push some back is IF you are moving on from say a Clark or a Smith it is due to full rebuild button pushed for whatever reason. Get assets back and restart. I concur it is going to need to be a 0-5 start with zero promise type level for this to possibly occur. At least IMO
To piggyback or answer to you and Captain as both of you could be correct. Either way we’d have to pay Jordan $13M guaranteed in 2024 and so we’ve invested in him. So with that thought in mind, another scenario is keeping Love as competition in that QB room for starter in 2024 (along with another QB in next years draft) could be a 3rd plan.
It would be similar to several other teams around the league where they are trying to figure things out until one rises.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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To piggyback or answer to you and Captain as both of you could be correct. Either way we’d have to pay Jordan $13M guaranteed. So keeping him as competition with a second top QB Rookie could be a 3rd plan.

Oh I fully expect as I stated originally he is here barring some catastrophic failing, just maybe as Caleb Williams backup lol
 
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Oh I fully expect as I stated originally he is here barring some catastrophic failing, just maybe as Caleb Williams backup lol
Yes. Having a Top 5 selection (wurst case finish this year) plus backing that up with a top #20-32 area selection? That gives us plenty of firepower to create a head to head QB competition.

We’d also be picking early rounds and we’d have at least 3 Day 3 Comp picks. Basically a repeat of 2022. We also wouldn’t need to mortgage our future like so many teams do when looking at QB
 
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tynimiller

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Yes. Having a Top 5 selection, plus backing that up with a top #20-32 area selection? That gives us plenty of firepower to create a head to head QB competition.

I see it differently though, IF there is a rookie first rounder QB here in 2023 it is because Love proved he has essentially ZERO chance of playing in the NFL beyond 2024
 
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I see it differently though, IF there is a rookie first rounder QB here in 2023 it is because Love proved he has essentially ZERO chance of playing in the NFL beyond 2024
I can see that. It would be pretty hard to select another QB using a Day1 unless they had essentially given up on Love.
Scratch that 3rd scenario I had ;)

Let’s face it, Love is here to stay for 2 seasons barring injury or something catastrophic.

Plus it sure would be nice to address 3 positions inside the top 50 again like we did this draft. I suspect we go after another OT in the first couple selections in 2024. Bakhtiari is a nice guy and all but hes obviously an injury concern.
 
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Seriously, what are the chances the Packers fall into a bucket of shlt again and
get a HOF quarter after Rodgers and Favre?

Considering some teams going through qb's for years to find the perfect fit.
 
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Seriously, what are the chances the Packers fall into a bucket of shlt again and
get a HOF quarter after Rodgers and Favre?

Considering some teams going through qb's for years to find the perfect fit.
Fairly little chance that any team signs a HOF QB. I don’t think The Packers are some exception. Although I don’t think we have to have a HOF QB to have good success.
 
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tynimiller

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Seriously, what are the chances the Packers fall into a bucket of shlt again and
get a HOF quarter after Rodgers and Favre?

Considering some teams going through qb's for years to find the perfect fit.
Greater than trying to hope for one, that is the one thing they didn’t do - they went and got one they felt atleast was worth the squeeze even in a time of no need.

Still I argue we don’t need another HOFer - a Jimmy G type level or Carr with right coach and team can win and win the SB even.

The odds we lucked into three straight legit HOFer is small, but the chance to do what we did was I’d argue nearly as small having two as long as we did.

Packers fans should have equal parts anxiety and excitement to see tho lol
 
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The only item I'd push some back is IF you are moving on from say a Clark or a Smith it is due to full rebuild button pushed for whatever reason. Get assets back and restart. I concur it is going to need to be a 0-5 start with zero promise type level for this to possibly occur. At least IMO

I would be in favor of trading Bakhtiari and/or Preston in that scenario at the trade deadline but with Clark only turning 28 years old during the season I would prefer the team to keep him around.

Bakhtiari is a nice guy and all but hes obviously an injury concern.

The main reason Bakhtiari won't be around in 2024 is the way his contract is currently structured.
 
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tynimiller

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I would be in favor of trading Bakhtiari and/or Preston in that scenario at the trade deadline but with Clark only turning 28 years old during the season I would prefer the team to keep him around.



The main reason Bakhtiari won't be around in 2024 is the way his contract is currently structured.

Absolutely on same page with you on Clark - it would not be something I'd personally be a fan of but would get the logic of perhaps, but I think that would have to mean Wyatt absolutely clicked BIG time and others too. Clark easily can still be the centerpiece of this downed lineman for years to come.
 

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While Clark's cap hit increases to $27.5 million in 2024 the Packers moving on from him would result in dead money of $24.2 million counting against their cap as well. It might be smart to keep him around considering that.
Clark counts $27Mil on the cap in '24, and void year '25 cap hit is an additional $13Mil. IF $$ is the only concern it would be best to save $2Mil in '23, eat $10+Mil dead cap and trade him in before the deadline in 2023. He's only 28 and still playing great, but best time to trade him would be before Halloween unless Gute intends to extend him next offseason.
 
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Absolutely on same page with you on Clark - it would not be something I'd personally be a fan of but would get the logic of perhaps, but I think that would have to mean Wyatt absolutely clicked BIG time and others too. Clark easily can still be the centerpiece of this downed lineman for years to come.

Taking a look at the defensive line Clark is the only player at the position with a ton of experience. Slaton has played a total of 588 and Wyatt 224 snaps in the NFL with no other DL haven't played a single snap at the pro level. I wouldn't consider trading Clark as a viable option considering the unit is extremely inexperienced without him.

Clark counts $27Mil on the cap in '24, and void year '25 cap hit is an additional $13Mil. IF $$ is the only concern it would be best to save $2Mil in '23, eat $10+Mil dead cap and trade him in before the deadline in 2023. He's only 28 and still playing great, but best time to trade him would be before Halloween unless Gute intends to extend him next offseason.

It's true the Packers would save a total of more than $17 million in cap space by trading Clark but they would lose by far their best player on the defensive line as well. In my opinion he isn't scheduled to earn outrageous money for it to make sense.
 

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Fairly little chance that any team signs a HOF QB. I don’t think The Packers are some exception. Although I don’t think we have to have a HOF QB to have good success.
If he could put up numbers like Kirk Cousins, who is not considered a HOF QB, I'd be very happy and think we could definitely win some SBs with him.
 
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If he could put up numbers like Kirk Cousins, who is not considered a HOF QB, I'd be very happy and think we could definitely win some SBs with him.
Yeah. Give me a modern day Boomer Esiason, Ken Anderson or Steve McNair type.
 
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For me the automatic re-signs are Dillon, Gary, Nixon and Ford.

I hold off on Runyan until he proves whether he's an ACTUAL starter or just a swing Guard that is the 'best option'.

Nijman I'm on the fence on. If he's the starter, let him go, and get an upgrade. If you're keeping him as the swing Tackle at a lower price then I'm all for it.

Preston Smith if you can get a 1 year contract 5-7 Million and give Van Ness until year 3 to marinate and take over the spot I'm all for it. Remember Gary is coming off an ACL and is on the other side of the D and ONE of the Edge Rusher's needs to be a coverage OLB.

Bakhtiari needs to go.

You almost have to overpay Clark to stay right now with the way the D-Line has played WITH him in the lineup. He's all we got.

Deguara, I get what you're saying Tyni, i was just never high on this guy, and we don't need him.

Hanson and Garvin should be gone.
 
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For me the automatic re-signs are Dillon, Gary, Nixon and Ford.

In my opinion Gary is the only one of that list the Packers absolutely have to retain in the long term.

Preston Smith if you can get a 1 year contract 5-7 Million and give Van Ness until year 3 to marinate and take over the spot I'm all for it.

You almost have to overpay Clark to stay right now with the way the D-Line has played WITH him in the lineup. He's all we got.

Both Preston (through 2026) and Clark (2024) are under contract for the '24 season.
 
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Keisean Nixon is the best pure returner we’ve had since Desmond Howard. As long as he doesn’t drop off a cliff in 2023 he’s our next priority behind Gary of those 4. He came in and earned AP1. He’s the leagues best Return man until proven otherwise. I really hope we don’t go back to caveman days of #32 ranked again or watching ST meltdowns. Packer fans of anyone should’ve learned that tough lesson. If Nixon so much as cracks a Top 10 return ranking I’d resign him to a similar 2 year deal similar to what he has now. Highly incentivized

Ford is trusted but we need to see growth this season before pulling the trigger.
 
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Keisean Nixon is the best pure returner we’ve had since Desmond Howard. As long as he doesn’t drop off a cliff in 2023 he’s our next priority behind Gary of those 4. He came in and earned AP1. He’s the leagues best Return man until proven otherwise. I really hope we don’t go back to caveman days of #32 ranked again or watching ST meltdowns. Packer fans of anyone should’ve learned that tough lesson. If Nixon so much as cracks a Top 10 return ranking I’d resign him to a similar 2 year deal similar to what he has now. Highly incentivized

Don't get me wrong, if Nixon performs at a similar level this season as in 2022 I definitely want the Packers to re-sign him. But at this point he needs to prove he can repeat his play for last year for that to happen. On the other side the Packers absolutely must extend Gary no matter if his play drops off, especially considering he's returning from a major injury.
 

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Keisean Nixon is the best pure returner we’ve had since Desmond Howard. As long as he doesn’t drop off a cliff in 2023 he’s our next priority behind Gary of those 4. He came in and earned AP1. He’s the leagues best Return man until proven otherwise. I really hope we don’t go back to caveman days of #32 ranked again or watching ST meltdowns. Packer fans of anyone should’ve learned that tough lesson. If Nixon so much as cracks a Top 10 return ranking I’d resign him to a similar 2 year deal similar to what he has now. Highly incentivized

Ford is trusted but we need to see growth this season before pulling the trigger.
I hope you are correct. IMO too small of a sample size for me to ordain him just yet.
 
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I hope you are correct. IMO too small of a sample size for me to ordain him just yet.
Sure that’s why I said he can’t drop off a cliff. Although I think we’ve come to realize the importance of having a good returner. Also it’s makes it easier (more probable) to sign a guy who’s making $2mil etc
 
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Hypothetical question....if Dillon and his agent came to you and said look 'David Montgomery got 3 years / $18M with just just shy of $8.75M guaranteed. I want to be in GB, but believe I'm of similar value. What if we did 3 years / $16M / $9.75M guaranteed for taking less?"

Do you put pen to paper at that number?

Personally, we all know Jones is gonna need another rework to his, but in an era where we clearly will have low cost WR room if all goes well for at minimum two more years (Watson blows up he would be an early extension candidate) I like the move personally...if Dillon would tack a fourth year on with not a terribly bigger bump...say to $20M over four with maybe $10M guarantee...as my counter I would eliminate a position of worry that is crucial to a young QB succeeding. The day will come when we have to sign WRs, and a year before that comes due is the year I start with a Day 2 RB draftee or early Day 3.
 
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