Is Adams the next homegrown talent to get a new contract?

Sunshinepacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
5,781
Reaction score
905
He's not making big plays like he used to. He's looked markedly less explosive and dangerous. In 2014, he had 27 plays of 20+ yards. He only had 20 in 2015 and 2016 combined. His YPR in 2013/2014 was around 14. The last two years it's been in the 10's. That's a big drop off. It's shown up in his production. His first downs and touchdowns have steadily declined. It's not just about his season yardage totals.

You can't just look at Cobb in a vacuum, you have to look at the entire offense. The past two seasons have seen Rodgers throw for the lowest yards per attempt since he became a starter. Nelson, last year, posted his lowest yards per reception since he became a consistent starter at WR (13.0 yards per catch last year, lowest since 12.9 in 2010). The ENTIRE offense has become less explosive in recent years.
 

gbgary

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2017
Messages
3,420
Reaction score
185
Location
up the road from jerrahworld
You can't just look at Cobb in a vacuum, you have to look at the entire offense. The past two seasons have seen Rodgers throw for the lowest yards per attempt since he became a starter. Nelson, last year, posted his lowest yards per reception since he became a consistent starter at WR (13.0 yards per catch last year, lowest since 12.9 in 2010). The ENTIRE offense has become less explosive in recent years.

sounds like play calling as far as the general offensive numbers go. personally i'm glad to see it. going for the higher percentage play only makes sense. if it's there fine but i can't tell you how much i've cussed the forced long ball, when they only needed 5, in the name of mm's explosive plays. as for jordy last year he was coming off the acl. wasn't close to 90% until the second half of the season. it's the 2nd year off acl that you're really back. depending on the structure of the o this year his numbers may or may not go up but at least he'll be 100%.
 

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
You can't just look at Cobb in a vacuum, you have to look at the entire offense. The past two seasons have seen Rodgers throw for the lowest yards per attempt since he became a starter. Nelson, last year, posted his lowest yards per reception since he became a consistent starter at WR (13.0 yards per catch last year, lowest since 12.9 in 2010). The ENTIRE offense has become less explosive in recent years.

Which, I would argue, is at least partially a function of his two best receivers from previous years losing some of their explosion.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
The past two seasons have seen Rodgers throw for the lowest yards per attempt since he became a starter.

There's no doubt the passing game struggled for most of 1 1/2 seasons in 2015 and '16 but Rodgers increased his yards per attempt from 6.4 yards from week 1-9 last season to 8.2 over the last eight games.
 

Patriotplayer90

Cheesehead
Joined
Nov 2, 2015
Messages
1,874
Reaction score
130
You can't just look at Cobb in a vacuum, you have to look at the entire offense. The past two seasons have seen Rodgers throw for the lowest yards per attempt since he became a starter. Nelson, last year, posted his lowest yards per reception since he became a consistent starter at WR (13.0 yards per catch last year, lowest since 12.9 in 2010). The ENTIRE offense has become less explosive in recent years.
But Nelson was still extremely productive, especially given the fact that he was coming off of the injury. Cobb produced much less than he did during his contract year, which was basically an anomaly when looking at his entire career. He's an 11-12 YPC, 800 yard type receiver.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
Cobb produced much less than he did during his contract year, which was basically an anomaly when looking at his entire career. He's an 11-12 YPC, 800 yard type receiver.

Cobb has eclipsed 800 receiving yards and 12 yards per catch three times out of six seasons in the league though. With talk out of Green Bay about trying to get the ball in his hands more often I expect him to be an important part of the offense this year again.
 

Sunshinepacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
5,781
Reaction score
905
But Nelson was still extremely productive, especially given the fact that he was coming off of the injury. Cobb produced much less than he did during his contract year, which was basically an anomaly when looking at his entire career. He's an 11-12 YPC, 800 yard type receiver.

Well, you can ignore context and come to that conclusion. However, if you actually look at his role in the offense, that's what he's been given. 2013 & 2014 he averaged 14 yards per catch (2013 on only 31 catches though). 2012 he averaged 11.9 yards per catch but that's what his role was in the offense; that season he was sharing targets with Nelson, Jones, Finley and Jennings so it wouldn't make sense for the coaches to ask Cobb to run deep with those guys on the field. I've already pointed out that the past two seasons haven't been a Cobb issue, it's been an entire Packers offense problem. Rodgers has set career highs in pass attempts for consecutive seasons the past two years and those two seasons have seen Rodgers also post career lows in yards per attempt (since he became a full time starter). Adding context to Cobb's performance helps understand why his numbers look like they do.

$10m per year average isn't exactly overpaying for a guy with his skill; I would put Cobb right there with Emmanuel Sanders, Allen Hurns and Doug Baldwin (all great slot receivers) and he's making less per year than all three of those guys. I mean, Cobb is being paid $1.5m per year more than Crabtree....I think that's perfectly reasonable.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
$10m per year average isn't exactly overpaying for a guy with his skill; I would put Cobb right there with Emmanuel Sanders, Allen Hurns and Doug Baldwin (all great slot receivers) and he's making less per year than all three of those guys.

In my opinion there's no doubt Cobb has been overpaid over the past two seasons considering the production the Packers got out of him during that period.

Hurns had a single fantastic season in 2015 but I would hardly call him a great slot receiver.
 

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
Well, you can ignore context and come to that conclusion. However, if you actually look at his role in the offense, that's what he's been given. 2013 & 2014 he averaged 14 yards per catch (2013 on only 31 catches though). 2012 he averaged 11.9 yards per catch but that's what his role was in the offense; that season he was sharing targets with Nelson, Jones, Finley and Jennings so it wouldn't make sense for the coaches to ask Cobb to run deep with those guys on the field. I've already pointed out that the past two seasons haven't been a Cobb issue, it's been an entire Packers offense problem. Rodgers has set career highs in pass attempts for consecutive seasons the past two years and those two seasons have seen Rodgers also post career lows in yards per attempt (since he became a full time starter). Adding context to Cobb's performance helps understand why his numbers look like they do.

$10m per year average isn't exactly overpaying for a guy with his skill; I would put Cobb right there with Emmanuel Sanders, Allen Hurns and Doug Baldwin (all great slot receivers) and he's making less per year than all three of those guys. I mean, Cobb is being paid $1.5m per year more than Crabtree....I think that's perfectly reasonable.

I think Cobb in 2014 was on par with Sanders and Baldwin, but he hasn't shown the same playmaking athleticism since to match those guys.
 

Mondio

Cheesehead
Joined
Dec 20, 2014
Messages
15,893
Reaction score
3,797
if injuries continue to take their toll he'll do about what he's done. he was coming off injury when Jordy went out early in the Giants game and made some big plays for us. He can do it, and I don't think he's a slacker by any means. His production will be based off health and opportunity. If he has enough of those this year, he'll be everything we need from him.
 

Sunshinepacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
5,781
Reaction score
905
In my opinion there's no doubt Cobb has been overpaid over the past two seasons considering the production the Packers got out of him during that period.

Hurns had a single fantastic season in 2015 but I would hardly call him a great slot receiver.

Again, look at the entire offense, it's been disappointing all around compared to prior seasons. Whether posters feel he's worth that contract, the NFL has determined, based on those other players i mentioned, that a player with Cobb's skills is worth around $10mn per year. Now, it's a valid argument to ask whether this offense, in its current iteration (reduced from historical performance but still good), can support a great slot receiver, in which case Cobb is not necessary. However, his contract is not ridiculous, or even particularly bad, by NFL standards.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
Again, look at the entire offense, it's been disappointing all around compared to prior seasons. Whether posters feel he's worth that contract, the NFL has determined, based on those other players i mentioned, that a player with Cobb's skills is worth around $10mn per year. Now, it's a valid argument to ask whether this offense, in its current iteration (reduced from historical performance but still good), can support a great slot receiver, in which case Cobb is not necessary. However, his contract is not ridiculous, or even particularly bad, by NFL standards.

While it's true the offense struggled for parts of the past two seasons Cobb has been responsible for it to some extent. The Packers can definitely support a great slot receiver but he hasn't been elite over the past two seasons by any means. Therefore there's reason to consider him being overpaid while I agree the contract isn't ridiculous.
 

GreenBaySlacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 5, 2014
Messages
3,092
Reaction score
209
In addition you have to consider that the Packers would only save $6 million in cap space by releasing Cobb this season as well as $9 million doing it next year.
If Adams continues to play like he has been. And Cobb does too. Then next year I would speculate Cobb will be dropped, to sign Adams long term....

I wonder what Adams value is, having never broke 1000 yds yet?

I also wonder if Cobb would be willing to take a pay cut extension, facing being dropped? Get like a 4 year /24mil extension, added to the 12 mil is a little over 7 mil a yr to stay with Rodgers another half decade. Assuring he doesn't go to the bills or jets to continue making his $10. And getting cut like Greg Jennings did.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
If Adams continues to play like he has been. And Cobb does too. Then next year I would speculate Cobb will be dropped, to sign Adams long term....

I wonder what Adams value is, having never broke 1000 yds yet?

I also wonder if Cobb would be willing to take a pay cut extension, facing being dropped? Get like a 4 year /24mil extension, added to the 12 mil is a little over 7 mil a yr to stay with Rodgers another half decade. Assuring he doesn't go to the bills or jets to continue making his $10. And getting cut like Greg Jennings did.

I would be in favor of the Packers restructuring Cobb's contract but it seems the current front office isn't keen on making such moves and in addition the player has to agree to it as well. There's no reason to release Cobb either now or next season though.

Adams came pretty close to 1,000 receiving yards in 2016 and finished second in the league in touchdown receptions. If he's capable of either repeating or even improving those numbers this season I expect him to receive a hefty contract either from the Packers or another team.
 

GreenBaySlacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 5, 2014
Messages
3,092
Reaction score
209
I would be in favor of the Packers restructuring Cobb's contract but it seems the current front office isn't keen on making such moves and in addition the player has to agree to it as well. There's no reason to release Cobb either now or next season though.

Adams came pretty close to 1,000 receiving yards in 2016 and finished second in the league in touchdown receptions. If he's capable of either repeating or even improving those numbers this season I expect him to receive a hefty contract either from the Packers or another team.
James Jones had 890 yds and 8 tds , on only 50 receptions...in 2015
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
James Jones had 890 yds and 8 tds , on only 50 receptions...in 2015

Jones was 31 years old when hitting free agency after the 2015 season and obviously on the downside of his career. Adams will most likely be an ascending player at age 25 heading towards the open market and therefore receive significantly better contract offers than Jones did two years ago.
 

GreenBaySlacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 5, 2014
Messages
3,092
Reaction score
209
Jones was 31 years old when hitting free agency after the 2015 season and obviously on the downside of his career. Adams will most likely be an ascending player at age 25 heading towards the open market and therefore receive significantly better contract offers than Jones did two years ago.
True. I just wanted to point out the similar production from a free agent near the end of his career, with our rising star in his breakout year....
James Jones had a great year with Rodgers throwing him the ball.
Adams is a great talent....with Rodgers throwing him the ball...
 

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
True. I just wanted to point out the similar production from a free agent near the end of his career, with our rising star in his breakout year....
James Jones had a great year with Rodgers throwing him the ball.
Adams is a great talent....with Rodgers throwing him the ball...

James was a good player without Rodgers as well. Very similar player to Adams. The reason he wasn't kept was that he was aging.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
True. I just wanted to point out the similar production from a free agent near the end of his career, with our rising star in his breakout year....
James Jones had a great year with Rodgers throwing him the ball.
Adams is a great talent....with Rodgers throwing him the ball...

However the fact remains that Adams will get offered a huge amount of money next offseason by either the Packers or another team because he's a young ascending player while Jones remains out of football.
 

easyk83

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 20, 2013
Messages
2,783
Reaction score
280
I think Cobb in 2014 was on par with Sanders and Baldwin, but he hasn't shown the same playmaking athleticism since to match those guys.

Cobb has plenty of athleticism that isn't his problem. The problem is that he's basically Ty Montgomery with less bulk. A guy who can move from the slot to the backfield and create match up problems. But whereas Cobb is only really a threat running the ball when defenses are playing pass Monty can be effective even when theyre playing run. The problem is that Ty Montgomery might be a better player in terms of ceiling and potential.
 

easyk83

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 20, 2013
Messages
2,783
Reaction score
280
James was a good player without Rodgers as well. Very similar player to Adams. The reason he wasn't kept was that he was aging.

The eyeball test says that Adams is a much more slippery receiver than Jones was near the end of his career. Adams ability first steps against a jamming corner are usually a thing of beauty. Davante is just a much more fluid and graceful player.
 

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
I think it says something that the Packers have never had a receiver thrive with Rodgers when drafted after the 3rd round. He's awesome, no doubt. But if he can make just any receiver great, why aren't the mid to late picks becoming starters?

The reality is that this offense relies heavily on receivers beating man coverage, and you had better have good players there if you want to be consistently successful. Rodgers' slumps over the past couple of seasons have coincided with issues at wideout.
 

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
Cobb has plenty of athleticism that isn't his problem. The problem is that he's basically Ty Montgomery with less bulk. A guy who can move from the slot to the backfield and create match up problems. But whereas Cobb is only really a threat running the ball when defenses are playing pass Monty can be effective even when theyre playing run. The problem is that Ty Montgomery might be a better player in terms of ceiling and potential.

I disagree. Cobb has lost some of what he once had. And he didn't have as much athleticism to begin with as many think. I would suspect it's a net effect of injuries. And he's much more of a pure receiver than Montgomery has ever been.
 

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
The eyeball test says that Adams is a much more slippery receiver than Jones was near the end of his career. Adams ability first steps against a jamming corner are usually a thing of beauty. Davante is just a much more fluid and graceful player.

Obvious Adams is better now, entering his prime, then Jones was at the end. The point is that Jones wasn't some scrub that Rodgers turned into something. He was a capable receiver in his own right, but just old. The point I was responding to was "Rodgers made Jones productive, so we don't need to pay Adams."
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
Cobb has plenty of athleticism that isn't his problem. The problem is that he's basically Ty Montgomery with less bulk. A guy who can move from the slot to the backfield and create match up problems. But whereas Cobb is only really a threat running the ball when defenses are playing pass Monty can be effective even when theyre playing run. The problem is that Ty Montgomery might be a better player in terms of ceiling and potential.

A lot of Packers fans undervalue Cobb´s performance. While he hasn´t played at an elite level over the past two seasons he still ranks third in the NFL in receptions out of the slot since 2014.
 

Staff online

Members online

Latest posts

Top