Is Adams the next homegrown talent to get a new contract?

[Deleted member 6794]

Look at who's throwing it to him. Of course he has one of the highest QB ratings.

If they are actually open Yes, the QB-WR relationship is a two way street, but I think it would be hard to argue with a straight face, that AR isn't responsible for a lot of the success that WR's have in GB.

There's no doubt that the Packers receivers hugely benefit from having Rodgers throwing them the ball. You have to consider that #12 has had a significantly higher passer rating when targeting Cobb (116.2) than overall (104.2) over the past five seasons.

 

[thequick12]

cobb is a really good player and only 26 years old i just dont know if you pay him 12 million a year to be your 3rd reciever granted that is essentially a starter in mccarthys offense. so maybe you can pay 3 wr 12 million a piece but i tend to think thats not feasable. honestly i think this offense is gonna be like the 2011 offense so its possible all 3 get to 1000 yards in 2017. the additions of bennett and kendricks and the jump i expect from montgomery is gonna allow mccarthy to get back to playing offense the way he wants to ie with a focus on the te and middle of field.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

cobb is a really good player and only 26 years old i just dont know if you pay him 12 million a year to be your 3rd reciever granted that is essentially a starter in mccarthys offense.

While I don't understand fans wanting the Packers to release Cobb as he's definitely a valuable player in the Packers passing game I agree with posters considering him being overpaid at a cap hit of $12 million.

 

[Dantés]

Whether Cobb remains on the team or not probably depends on how he performs this season. If his output is comparable to 2015 and 2016, I don't see how you continue to pay him.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Whether Cobb remains on the team or not probably depends on how he performs this season. If his output is comparable to 2015 and 2016, I don't see how you continue to pay him.

The Packers under Thompson aren't known for releasing or restructuring the contract of high profile, underperforming players though.

 

[gbgary]

posters considering him being overpaid at a cap hit of $12 million.

again...who cares? the Packers set up his contract this way. he's making $9m this year (cap hit 12.6). they're not remotely close to cap trouble and it's only going up. adams getting his market value (8-9-10 mil) next year is nothing.

i also don't think cobb is "underperforming." with mm's personnel packages, with the way rodgers sprays the ball around, with the other wr talent on this team, and now with the addition of bennett, you really can't look at stat totals anymore as everyone's numbers will go down. it's about analytic results.

 

[gbgary]

cobb is a really good player and only 26 years old

this!
you only let him go if there's someone better. it's about getting better, not worse.

 

[PikeBadger]

Whether Cobb remains on the team or not probably depends on how he performs this season. If his output is comparable to 2015 and 2016, I don't see how you continue to pay him.

I think Cobb's future is more likely to be determined if a few guys below him on the WR depth start taking away significant playing time from him. I don't foresee that happening and I think Cobb is generally a consistently productive player in our offense.

 

[Dantés]

The Packers under Thompson aren't known for releasing or restructuring the contract of high profile, underperforming players though.

Cobb would be a good litmus test if he underperforms again-- 3 straight years.

 

[RRyder]

Cobb would be a good litmus test if he underperforms again-- 3 straight years.

Even if he doesn't put up the numbers to warrant a 12 million a year cap hit, (which is almost a given barring injury with Jordy and Adams as the clear #1 n 2 combined with the addition of Bennett), it still won't necessarily make sense to cut him.

 

[gbgary]

Cobb would be a good litmus test if he underperforms again-- 3 straight years.

who should give up catches for cobb's totals to be better? in 15 he was the only wr teams had to defense. last year they had the whole corp plus a productive te. it'll be the same this year but the te position is even stronger. he's not underperforming. it's just that rodgers and mm have more options. this year's o should be something to watch and no single wr may have gaudy totals.

 

[C-Lee]

I hope Cobb goes off next season so everyone can shut up about his contract. He's a great player.

 

[Dantés]

who should give up catches for cobb's totals to be better? in 15 he was the only wr teams had to defense. last year they had the whole corp plus a productive te. it'll be the same this year but the te position is even stronger. he's not underperforming. it's just that rodgers and mm have more options. this year's o should be something to watch and no single wr may have gaudy totals.

He's not making big plays like he used to. He's looked markedly less explosive and dangerous. In 2014, he had 27 plays of 20+ yards. He only had 20 in 2015 and 2016 combined. His YPR in 2013/2014 was around 14. The last two years it's been in the 10's. That's a big drop off. It's shown up in his production. His first downs and touchdowns have steadily declined. It's not just about his season yardage totals.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

cobb is a really good player and only 26 years old i just dont know if you pay him 12 million a year to be your 3rd reciever granted that is essentially a starter in mccarthys offense. so maybe you can pay 3 wr 12 million a piece but i tend to think thats not feasable. honestly i think this offense is gonna be like the 2011 offense so its possible all 3 get to 1000 yards in 2017. the additions of bennett and kendricks and the jump i expect from montgomery is gonna allow mccarthy to get back to playing offense the way he wants to ie with a focus on the te and middle of field.

We know the kind of player that he is now. He's been in the league for 6 full seasons, it doesn't matter his age. Especially since his production is declining.

People point to Rodgers' QB rating while targeting him, but it's even better while targeting Nelson, who is much more productive and has more attention from the defense. Maybe Rodgers is just really, really good.

I do think Cobb would be better in a true West Coast offense, and just isn't a practical vertical or backshoulder threat. Or maybe the routes really are as basic and predictable as everyone was pointing out in 2015, but the addition of Nelson and Cook, as well as Rodgers turning on God mode, helped to mask that. Until the Atlanta game, that is.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm partial. Any wr who can get open can easily catch double digit touchdowns playing with Aaron Rodgers. I'm more convinced every wr on the roster outside of Jordy Nelson is a product of the system to be honest. Just look what happened to James Jones, and Greg Jennings when they left. Proof is in the pudding.

Pistachio always seems to bring out the best in us

 

[gbgary]

He's not making big plays like he used to. He's looked markedly less explosive and dangerous. In 2014, he had 27 plays of 20+ yards. He only had 20 in 2015 and 2016 combined. His YPR in 2013/2014 was around 14. The last two years it's been in the 10's. That's a big drop off. It's shown up in his production. His first downs and touchdowns have steadily declined. It's not just about his season yardage totals.

my eyes tell me the Packers have more wr talent now than they did in 13 and that he's working more and more from the slot. "big plays" will naturally go down. with the way mm changes personnel packages (to get people touches and rest) he's probably on the field less than 13 too. he's a possession receiver not a field stretcher. great hands and feet. he keeps the chains moving.

 

[Dantés]

my eyes tell me the Packers have more wr talent now than they did in 13 and that he's working more and more from the slot. "big plays" will naturally go down. with the way mm changes personnel packages (to get people touches and rest) he's probably on the field less than 13 too. he's a possession receiver not a field stretcher. great hands and feet. he keeps the chains moving.

I think that's probably another part of it. But I also think there's a component that he's lost some of his explosion with time and injuries. For the record, I'm not saying that he's bad or that I want him off the team. But at his cap number, he could be a cut candidate if they felt they wanted that money for Adams. Most likely though, he's kept through the end of this current deal.

 

[PikeBadger]

I hope Cobb goes off next season so everyone can shut up about his contract. He's a great player.

If he goes off, it'll just mean that someone else will take his place as the cut candidate because his production numbers doesn't warrant the salary he's making.

 

[Dantés]

If he goes off, it'll just mean that someone else will take his place as the cut candidate because his production numbers doesn't warrant the salary he's making.

I don't think that's necessary true. Speaking only for myself, the reason I'm down on Cobb from the last two seasons has more to do with efficiency than volume. If his targets merely declined because of all the options on offense, that would be one thing. But he's done a lot less per target. That's concerning to me.

 

[Poppa San]

But he DOES catch the ball when it is headed his way. One in seven pass attempts went towards him last season.
from here
Doesn't mean he isn't overpaid a bit.

Name Team Pos. Completions Targets Comp % TDs Target %
1 Ripkowski, Aaron GB FB 10 11 90.91 1 1.74
2 Montgomery, Ty GB RB 46 58 79.31 1 9.15
3 Starks, James GB RB 19 25 76.00 2 3.94
4 Cobb, Randall GB WR 62 89 69.66 5 14.04
5 Michael, Christine GB RB 2 3 66.67 0 0.47
6 Rodgers, Richard GB TE 31 48 64.58 2 7.57
7 Nelson, Jordy GB WR 100 160 62.50 14 25.24
8 Adams, Davante GB WR 77 127 60.63 12 20.03
9 Janis, Jeff GB WR 11 19 57.89 1 3.00
10 Lacy, Eddie GB RB 4 7 57.14 0 1.10
11 Cook, Jared GB TE 30 53 56.60 1 8.36
12 Allison, Geronimo GB WR 12 22 54.55 2 3.47
13 Abbrederis, Jared GB WR 1 2 50.00 0 0.32
14 Davis, Trevor GB WR 3 8 37.50 1 1.26
15 Jackson, Don GB RB 0 2 0.00 0 0.32

Looking at this, Cook and Allison are, to be generous, given the benefit of the doubt in their receiving abilities. Four of the bottom six are already not on the roster.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

again...who cares? the Packers set up his contract this way. he's making $9m this year (cap hit 12.6). they're not remotely close to cap trouble and it's only going up. adams getting his market value (8-9-10 mil) next year is nothing.

The Packers currently have already $154 million committed towards the 2018 salary cap. Even with it most likely increasing again next offseason the team possibly won't likely have a ton of room to work with. In addition overpaying for players headed towards free agency is never a smart way to handle business as clubs are allowed to roll over cap space.

Even if he doesn't put up the numbers to warrant a 12 million a year cap hit, (which is almost a given barring injury with Jordy and Adams as the clear #1 n 2 combined with the addition of Bennett), it still won't necessarily make sense to cut him.

I agree that it probably won't make any sense to release Cobb in 2018 it might be smart to restructure his contract.

my eyes tell me the Packers have more wr talent now than they did in 13 and that he's working more and more from the slot. "big plays" will naturally go down. with the way mm changes personnel packages (to get people touches and rest) he's probably on the field less than 13 too. he's a possession receiver not a field stretcher. great hands and feet. he keeps the chains moving.

Cobb has mostly lined up in the slot for all of his careers but has been more successful before signing his current contract in 2015. The Packers for sure didn't plan on him becoming a possession receivers when they offered him the contract.

FWIW his first down percentage significantly went down over the last two years (56.1%) compared to 2014 (78.0%) as well.

 

[PikeBadger]

Rodgers is likely to have about 400 completions, 4200 yds, and 35-40 TD's. Assuming those numbers will be spread around with Nelson likely to have about 25% of those numbers means that all the other weapons divvy up the remainder. Imo, unless Nelson loses time to injury, Nelson in effect is the underpaid guy in comparison to others in their second contract. Maybe Cobb should be compared to other slot receivers in their second contract with QB's who generate similar numbers to Rodgers.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Maybe Cobb should be compared to other slot receivers in their second contract with QB's who generate similar numbers to Rodgers.

That would most likely result in an extremely small sample size.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

While I don't understand fans wanting the Packers to release Cobb as he's definitely a valuable player in the Packers passing game I agree with posters considering him being overpaid at a cap hit of $12 million.

I agree, fans seem to forget that team economics is not normal economics. The question isn't whether Cobb is worth $12 million, it's what player could the Packers use that $12 million savings on who would help the team more than Cobb helps the team. Basically, who could the Packers use that money on rather than using it on Cobb. Pro sports isn't just a question of if a guy is worth the salary, it's if that guys salary could get you someone that helps the team more.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree, fans seem to forget that team economics is not normal economics. The question isn't whether Cobb is worth $12 million, it's what player could the Packers use that $12 million savings on who would help the team more than Cobb helps the team. Basically, who could the Packers use that money on rather than using it on Cobb. Pro sports isn't just a question of if a guy is worth the salary, it's if that guys salary could get you someone that helps the team more.

In addition you have to consider that the Packers would only save $6 million in cap space by releasing Cobb this season as well as $9 million doing it next year.