So I got the Football outsiders Almanac 2010 in the mail last week and was pretty impressed by the depth of their analysis. The book is almost 600 pages and is chalk filled with tidbits, stats, and random info for anyone that loves football. I have heard about the book for a few years and finally picked it up. Well worth it. Last season they didnt exactly give the packers a ringing endorsement but they always back it up why. This season they are pretty high on the pack but also say that we will win less games because of the schedule. They give individual reports on all RBs, QBs, TEs, and WRs.
Football outsiders Almanac 2010
- Thread starter ivo610
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here is what they said about Rodgers:
"Rodgers won the fantasy football scoring title, an award that no one has won in consecutive seasons since Priest Holmes in 2002 and 2003. Thats not meaningful enough to induce regression, but what is worth noting is Rodgers' ridiculous splits by down: He had -3.7%DVOA on first down, a 9.8% DVOA on second down, and a totally out of this world 79.4% DVOA on third down. Rodgers completed passes on 59.4 percent of his dropbacks on third down, a figure trailing only Mssrs. Manning and Brees, while he averaged a ridiculous 9.1 yards per dropback; Philip Rivers was second at 8.3 yards, and no one else was above eight. We discussed the disappearance of the third down effect for offenses earlier in the book, but this sort of dramatic outlier is just unsustainable in any way. Rodgers also faced the easiest schedule of any starting quarterback in the league, with a difference of 5.7 percentage points between his VOA and DVOA. Even with a decline, Rodgers is very clearly among the leagues best quarterbacks, which makes the knocks on him back in 2005 even weirder. Scouts had doubts about his size and his ability to throw when scrambling, and worried that a good percentage of his passing yards came as yards after the catch. As you can see above (stats from 07 to 09, with a prediction for 10), Rodgers was perfectly fine in 2008 while his receivers produced below avg YAC, and his biggest problem as a professional - taking sacks and diagnosing the oncoming pass rush- went unmentioned. One of the reasons why players get overdrafted based on factors like arm strength and 40 time is because they are as plain as day to see. Projecting how a guy sees a pass rush or his vision to identify and pick a hole, well, those skills are a lot more subtle, even though they're extremely valuable.
"Rodgers won the fantasy football scoring title, an award that no one has won in consecutive seasons since Priest Holmes in 2002 and 2003. Thats not meaningful enough to induce regression, but what is worth noting is Rodgers' ridiculous splits by down: He had -3.7%DVOA on first down, a 9.8% DVOA on second down, and a totally out of this world 79.4% DVOA on third down. Rodgers completed passes on 59.4 percent of his dropbacks on third down, a figure trailing only Mssrs. Manning and Brees, while he averaged a ridiculous 9.1 yards per dropback; Philip Rivers was second at 8.3 yards, and no one else was above eight. We discussed the disappearance of the third down effect for offenses earlier in the book, but this sort of dramatic outlier is just unsustainable in any way. Rodgers also faced the easiest schedule of any starting quarterback in the league, with a difference of 5.7 percentage points between his VOA and DVOA. Even with a decline, Rodgers is very clearly among the leagues best quarterbacks, which makes the knocks on him back in 2005 even weirder. Scouts had doubts about his size and his ability to throw when scrambling, and worried that a good percentage of his passing yards came as yards after the catch. As you can see above (stats from 07 to 09, with a prediction for 10), Rodgers was perfectly fine in 2008 while his receivers produced below avg YAC, and his biggest problem as a professional - taking sacks and diagnosing the oncoming pass rush- went unmentioned. One of the reasons why players get overdrafted based on factors like arm strength and 40 time is because they are as plain as day to see. Projecting how a guy sees a pass rush or his vision to identify and pick a hole, well, those skills are a lot more subtle, even though they're extremely valuable.
Ryan Grant:
Since Grant took over as the Packers' starter halfway through the 2007 season, he's carried the ball 782 times, with only a minor hamstring strain and some shoulder tendinitis to report. Only Adrian Peterson and Thomas Jones have carried the ball more over that timeframe, and part of the credit for that should go to how the Packers have managed Grant's workload as their primary back. Compare Grant's 282 carries a year ago to, say, Cedric Benson who had 301 carries. Grant's high total in a single game was 27 carries; Benson matched or surpassed that total six different times. We can't link in-season injuries directly to that sort of short term workload, but it seems wiser to err on the side of caution, as the Packers have with Grant. Grant wants to get more involved in the passing game in 2010, but it's not like Green BAy is suffering from a surfeit of targets, and running backs dont tend to suddenly pick up receiving skills after five years in the league. Grant only had 26 career catches in college, too, so he wasnt exactly Reggie Bush.
Since Grant took over as the Packers' starter halfway through the 2007 season, he's carried the ball 782 times, with only a minor hamstring strain and some shoulder tendinitis to report. Only Adrian Peterson and Thomas Jones have carried the ball more over that timeframe, and part of the credit for that should go to how the Packers have managed Grant's workload as their primary back. Compare Grant's 282 carries a year ago to, say, Cedric Benson who had 301 carries. Grant's high total in a single game was 27 carries; Benson matched or surpassed that total six different times. We can't link in-season injuries directly to that sort of short term workload, but it seems wiser to err on the side of caution, as the Packers have with Grant. Grant wants to get more involved in the passing game in 2010, but it's not like Green BAy is suffering from a surfeit of targets, and running backs dont tend to suddenly pick up receiving skills after five years in the league. Grant only had 26 career catches in college, too, so he wasnt exactly Reggie Bush.
PackersRS
Cheesehead
One thing about it. The best NFC predictions are Packers and Atlanta with 9 wins. It's IMPOSSIBLE for every NFC team to lose at least 7 games. IMPOSSIBLE.
