Tearing it Down

Mondio

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Part of the reason it hasn't worked all that well throwing short is the same reason we've had troubles all over this year. Up until the past 2 weeks our line play has been terrible. It's not hard for teams to play defense against us. They've been lining up and attacking, flying downhill to the LOS and to the QB. Nobody has had to respect anything past 7 yards because we had nobody to catch it or run with it if they happened to protect long enough to try and complete something there.

If things keep trending the way they are on the Oline and offensively, it might be too little too late, but they'll start connecting on these a bit more regularly and this offense will go from everyone saying, WTF was that?, to WTF was that! I'd really like to see how this team can finish with this oline combination, Cobb healthy and Doubs back and healthy and Watson of course. If nothing else they set themselves up for next year and get some hard learning lumps in a tough season.
 
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I wouldn't mind Jones being targeted down the field more often but his numbers on throws that travelled at least 10 yards in the air hasn't been that impressive entering this season either as he caught only nine balls on 23 targets.
I agree. I don’t expect him to be a full fledged receiver either (10+ yard targets should be limited for the vast majority of RB’s). What I’m trying to say is that I think There’s a sweet spot in the middle of yards per target. #33 is currently at a career low (omitting a limit rookie season) in Y/Tgt (5.1) this season. That needs to be in that 7-8 yard range to maximize his production. Going over 10+ yards is really going to lower your catch % drastically and obviously shorter passes increase catch %, but reduce net production.

As eluded to in that article I posted. #33 is getting too much stuff thrown well behind the LOS. We should consider a better balance of intermediate throws past the LOS.
Find the Maximized Equilibrium point and design more plays within its shadow
 
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I agree. I don’t expect him to be a full fledged receiver either (10+ yard targets should be limited for the vast majority of RB’s). What I’m trying to say is that I think There’s a sweet spot in the middle of yards per target. #33 is currently at a career low (omitting a limit rookie season) in Y/Tgt (5.1) this season. That needs to be in that 7-8 yard range to maximize his production. Going over 10+ yards is really going to lower your catch % drastically and obviously shorter passes increase catch %, but reduce net production.

As eluded to in that article I posted. #33 is getting too much stuff thrown well behind the LOS. We should consider a better balance of intermediate throws past the LOS.

It's true that Jones is targeted behind the LOS at a higher percentage than every other running back with at least 14 targets aside of Jonathan Taylor and Kenyan Drake this season. I agree with Mondio that opponents being able to put more defenders close to the LOS has factored into that as well as his drop in yards per target though.
 
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It's true that Jones is targeted behind the LOS at a higher percentage than every other running back with at least 14 targets aside of Jonathan Taylor and Kenyan Drake this season. I agree with Mondio that opponents being able to put more defenders close to the LOS has factored into that as well as his drop in yards per target though.
We used to be good at letting teams over pursue and then dumping the ball off short dump passes and letting the RB fight for a couple yards for a 4-5 yard play.

Now we throw it -2 yards behind LOS and they get accosted by 9 in the box before they see daylight. Against faster Defenses the -2 throw doesn’t work unless you’ve got A+ blocking. We watch several OL miss key blocks and TE’s give up on a block before the play is finished. It’s perplexing to say the least.

It seems until we start hitting more intermediate to longer throws, opponents will just stack the box and I don’t blame them.
 
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Now we throw it -2 yards behind LOS and they get accosted by 9 in the box before they see daylight. Against faster Defenses the -2 throw doesn’t work unless you’ve got A+ blocking. We watch several OL miss key blocks and TE’s give up on a block before the play is finished. It’s perplexing to say the least.

It seems until we start hitting more intermediate to longer throws, opponents will just stack the box and I don’t blame them.

It's actually not perplexing that it's tough to have success running the ball or throwing short passes to the running backs as long as opponents are able to load the box because they don't have to respect intermediate or deep throws.

With Watson having made some impressive plays over the past two games there's some hope that might change moving forward.
 

milani

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It's actually not perplexing that it's tough to have success running the ball or throwing short passes to the running backs as long as opponents are able to load the box because they don't have to respect intermediate or deep throws.

With Watson having made some impressive plays over the past two games there's some hope that might change moving forward.
Ever think if that first pass of the season in Minnesota had been caught teams might just have had a little more respect for our long game?
 
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Ever think if that first pass of the season in Minnesota had been caught teams might just have had a little more respect for our long game?
Yes. That drop seemed to take us into a different trajectory until a week or two ago. I'm not trying to get down on #9, but getting an A+ on your first exam just makes everything flow smoother for the rest of the semester
 
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Ever think if that first pass of the season in Minnesota had been caught teams might just have had a little more respect for our long game?

It's possible Watson catching that ball would have made a difference. Teams need to make plays consistently for a defense to respect it though.
 

tynimiller

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I am fully on board with watching the rest of this season play out. Maybe the Packers somehow rebound. However, I think the smart money would bet they don't. If that proves true, you've got a super expensive roster that clearly can't win a Super Bowl, which means it's time to tear down and start over. Here's what I hope would happen or what I think would be smart, with a goal in mind of being competitive again in 2025.

Trade/Retire:

-Aaron Rodgers:
Hopefully one of the by-products of a teardown is that Rodgers would just retire. It would result in crippling cap implications, most notably in 2023, but the idea would be to take your medicine and move on. If he doesn't want to be done, trade him.

-David Bakhtiari: It the effort to stay healthy proves too much, Bakh should just hang it up. Otherwise I would seek to deal him. Again-- terrible cap implications, but you're just taking your medicine.

Trade/Release:

-Kenny Clark:
I would guess that one could get a pretty decent return for a 27 yo of Clark's caliber on a reasonable base salary.

-Aaron Jones: Expectations would need to be tempered here because of age and position, but I would guess that the Packers could get something back for Jones.

-Preston Smith

-De'Vondre Campbell

-Rasul Douglas

Release:


-Darnell Savage: "That doesn't save any cap space!" you say. Yes, but it saves me having to watch Darnell Savage play football.

Allow to Walk:

-Adrian Amos
-Randall Cobb
-Dean Lowry
-Mason Crosby
-Allen Lazard
-Robert Tonyan
-Jarran Reed
-Marcedes Lewis
-Sammy Watkins
-Keisean Nixon
-Dallin Leavitt
-Rudy Ford
-Eric Wilson

Consider Resigning:

-Elgton Jenkins and/or Yosh Nijman:
Both players are young enough that, with OL longevity, one could reasonably assume they're still contributors when GB rebounds as a team. Plus OL play will be key during the rebuilding phase so that other players on offense (esp. QB) can be accurately assessed.

Sign From the Outside:

-Literally No One:
"What is a free agent?"

Conclusion: This would leave the Packers with a few building blocks, lots of draft capital, and crippling cap penalties. You retain Alexander and Gary as pieces for the future, while working on development for guys like Stokes, Walker, and Wyatt. On offense, you keep the OL mostly intact while the young WR's continue to grow. That should provide enough of an ecosystem that you could use 2023 to assess Love and either seek to build around him or move on from him in the future. In 2023, flood the roster with rookies, drafted and undrafted, and see who has the ability to stick during a season when you're taking the brunt of your cap medicine so that you have some flexibility moving forward.

Now with more games since this post, season being done and Aaron's presser last night....my reflections are similar to you yet again for the second year I think we should move from Rodgers:

Rodgers needs to retire or we need to trade him - it truly is that simple. If that means we have to behind closed doors tell him Love is our 2023 QB if Rodgers tells them he isn't retiring than so be it.

Players I think we should trade in this reset/tear down:

Bahktiari - there is a chance he retires with knowledge of us entering a rebuild...or I guess he could be agreeable to a trade. His cap numbers are big but he is still a Top 3 LT in many statistics when he played this year and a team could easily with cap space say he is the cornerstone of a SB run in 2023. Are you getting a TON back, probably not, but I could easily see him being the perfect candidate for a conditional pick a team would easily concede a future 2nd or future 1st if they truly get a full season LT play from Bakh (easily).
Jones - if we are entering a rebuild - it just seems like a disservice to him to force him to restructure...if I understand the contract we'd be covering about half his $20M hit for 2023...him at $10M is quite digestible for a team that needs that backfield weapon. He is a special threat which still has a year or two of high production IMO...and this whole fallout runs of 2021 and 2022 merely confirm I never thought we should have paid Jones and not Jamaal...but alas is what it is. Get what you can and go for him.
Preston - I would DESPISE to see him go, but if I'm Gute I and we are entering a reset I am at minimum calling Preston and letting him decide. If he wants to stick it out and help maybe build something special we want him as one of those vets on the defensive side to do it with. If not, his contract is VERY tradeable and he still easily starts for over half the league IMO. It's up to him whether he stays or goes.
Clark - This is a tough one...and depends how DEEP into the waters of reset/rebuild we want to go. Kenny would get sizable return but he is also still young enough to be even more so one of the cornerstones of experience on the defensive side of things. I'd probably give him a courtesy chat like Preston as well honestly.
Campbell - I don't think you get a ton and we don't save hardly anything...he is more tradeable after 2023 or cuttable...I don't see the return worth it for him honestly.
Douglas - I think he might be the safety of this reset/rebuild personally...and like Campbell the savings is minimal but is about $3M so its possible you do it. I don't see more than a Day 3 (most likely late) return on him so I personally say keep.

Resign:

Nixon and Ford....I don't think either are going to cost a lot, they both found success here and I'd bet would love the chance of an elevated role opportunity in the reset/rebuild.

Let Walk:
-Adrian Amos
-Randall Cobb
-Dean Lowry
-Mason Crosby
-Allen Lazard
-Robert Tonyan
-Jarran Reed
-Marcedes Lewis
-Dallin Leavitt
-Eric Wilson
-Justin Hollins
-Yosh Nijman

Pick up the RFAs of Barnes and Davis

Free Agents


We do NOTHING until bargain deal days. This is not the year to spend anything of real substance.
 

gopkrs

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Very interesting. I want to keep Jones, Clark, Amos, Reed, and maybe Tonyan. The rest I'm good with. And I don't want to "waste" a 1st or 2nd round pick on a TE. We need better play on the O line. And another top pass rusher. Campbell is way over-rated imho.
 

tynimiller

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Very interesting. I want to keep Jones, Clark, Amos, Reed, and maybe Tonyan. The rest I'm good with. And I don't want to "waste" a 1st or 2nd round pick on a TE. We need better play on the O line. And another top pass rusher. Campbell is way over-rated imho.

I should have stated those are not what I want to do but what I think we should do.

I want Jones back (love the guy), I want the rest of your list as well for sure. But fiscal and future direction argue against it with some solid reasoning unfortunately.
 

gopkrs

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I should have stated those are not what I want to do but what I think we should do.

I want Jones back (love the guy), I want the rest of your list as well for sure. But fiscal and future direction argue against it with some solid reasoning unfortunately.
Yeah, we are limited. I believe we should try and rebuild w/o completely tearing it apart. Especially the O line. And I don't see trading Bahktiari as destroying the O line. But we will have to draft there. Look at the Rams. I think McVay is a big **** if he can't handle a rebuild.
 

Pkrjones

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Bahktiari - Keep for '23, only save $6Mil on the cap (with $23Mil dead money) and see if want to keep for '24 when more cap savings than dead $.
Jones - Can't afford to keep, unfortunately. Save the $10.4Mil on the cap & let him move on to a bigger payday.
Preston - Keep for '23, only save $3.3Mil on the cap but has $9.7Mil dead $ and decide if you want to keep in '24 or'25 when more cap savings. Reasonable cost ($13-16Mil/yr) over next 3 years IF still moderately productive.
Clark - NEED to keep for '23, and if still healthy and productive re-sign to keep cap # lower thru '26 or '27 when in low 30's yrs. old.
Campbell - No cap savings for a couple of years, our wagon is hitched thru '24 or '25.
Douglas - He's a Packer in '23, evaluate production to see if want to keep in '24 where cap savings would be $9Mil.

Agree on the rest with exception of Hollins.
Resign:

Nixon and Ford....I don't think either are going to cost a lot, they both found success here and I'd bet would love the chance of an elevated role opportunity in the reset/rebuild.

Let Walk:
-Adrian Amos
-Randall Cobb
-Dean Lowry
-Mason Crosby
-Allen Lazard
-Robert Tonyan
-Jarran Reed
-Marcedes Lewis
-Dallin Leavitt
-Eric Wilson
-Justin Hollins - Would re-sign for vet min. for depth.
-Yosh Nijman
 

gopkrs

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I'm sure you are right Pkr but I just want to start the re-build and not think about the savings being this year or next. Besides, trading now might get a better return.
 

Mondio

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I don't think Bakht is going anywhere. He's worth if it if he can play. He seemed to hold up better as we went along and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt when considering how little we save and how big the drop off is if he's gone.

Maybe we find a trade partner that helps in other areas, then maybe? But it leaves a massive hole on an already pretty weak Oline.
 

tynimiller

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I don't think Bakht is going anywhere. He's worth if it if he can play. He seemed to hold up better as we went along and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt when considering how little we save and how big the drop off is if he's gone.

Maybe we find a trade partner that helps in other areas, then maybe? But it leaves a massive hole on an already pretty weak Oline.

Bakh staying if Rodgers moves on (trade or retire) is something GB needs to allow him to decide. We've got Jenkins and Tom for LT with current roster into 2023 worst case.

Personally if Rodgers moves on, I think guys like Bakh, Preston, Campbell and Clark all should be chatted with about do they want to be part of a building to the future - if yes, they are 100% Packers, if no we attempt to trade.
 

tynimiller

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I'm leaving Jenkins where he's at and Tom was Ok, but has a long ways to go IMO.

Jenkins is far better guard than Tackle IMO. Tom is a rookie with immense ability. He will be a starter next year and unlike Newman and Runyan I expect growth, especially with a full off season NFL caliber training.

Neither are better than Bakh, but sometimes it isn't about better it is about best for the future and Bakh too if he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild.
 

gopkrs

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I don't think Bakht is going anywhere. He's worth if it if he can play. He seemed to hold up better as we went along and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt when considering how little we save and how big the drop off is if he's gone.

Maybe we find a trade partner that helps in other areas, then maybe? But it leaves a massive hole on an already pretty weak Oline.
Looks like there are a couple of great L Tackle prospects in the draft. One from Georgia and one from Ohio State. Bahk is the past imho. If we keep him; we still need to draft to cover him getting hurt and take over probably sooner than later. If we could get something decent for him; I would let him go.
 

Mondio

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Looks like there are a couple of great L Tackle prospects in the draft. One from Georgia and one from Ohio State. Bahk is the past imho. If we keep him; we still need to draft to cover him getting hurt and take over probably sooner than later. If we could get something decent for him; I would let him go.
If we got a pretty decent trade offer, I would too. But I'm not looking to move him just to move on. It would have to be pretty good draft capital or some substantial player at another position of need because it's leaving a huge hole at LT on an already weak OL.

I'm not opposed to drafting OL high in the draft, I think we should in fact. we're not fixing anything until the OL is working well.
 

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Even if the Packers draft an OT in rounds 1 or 2, letting Bakhtiari go won't save much on the cap and would allow the rookie to not be thrown to the wolves in year 1. Bakhtiari is under contract for 2023 and its nearly impossible to find a way around his massive cap hit. Might as well play him because he's the best OT on the roster for 2023. His replacement could be drafted in 2023 given a year to adjust and then replace Bakhtiari in 2024 when the salary cap implications aren't so dire. I think the Packers should rebuild, but making moves that don't pay dividends doesn't make much sense to me.
 

tynimiller

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Looks like there are a couple of great L Tackle prospects in the draft. One from Georgia and one from Ohio State. Bahk is the past imho. If we keep him; we still need to draft to cover him getting hurt and take over probably sooner than later. If we could get something decent for him; I would let him go.

There are three clear Day 1 LT starters in this draft for me: in no particular order Skoronski (Northwestern), Johnson (OSU) and Jones (Georgia)...but there are a few second round most likely types that I'd bet have a very solid shot at being able to as well or for sure RT starters Day 2 which would greatly help the OL issues as well making Tom able to go LT or even start at RG over Runyan.
 

tynimiller

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Even if the Packers draft an OT in rounds 1 or 2, letting Bakhtiari go won't save much on the cap and would allow the rookie to not be thrown to the wolves in year 1. Bakhtiari is under contract for 2023 and its nearly impossible to find a way around his massive cap hit. Might as well play him because he's the best OT on the roster for 2023. His replacement could be drafted in 2023 given a year to adjust and then replace Bakhtiari in 2024 when the salary cap implications aren't so dire. I think the Packers should rebuild, but making moves that don't pay dividends doesn't make much sense to me.

Again, GB would be ignorant to force Bakh to be part of a reset/rebuild if he doesn't desire...nor would hanging on to him be looking forward, but instead clinging to be the past.

We survived last year without him, this year for a lot of games...it is only logical for Bakh's future to be on the table as well while he still has proven to be one of the best LT in the game and we are not going to be in contention - you get a decent return for him you grab it asap for the reset/rebuild.

Keeping Bakh is only what our hearts want (I know mine does) however removing emotion and looking for future build it doesn't make a ton of sense at his stage of his career.
 
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