1. Welcome to Green Bay Packers NFL Football Forum & Community!

    Packer Forum is one of the largest online communities for the Green Bay Packers. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Sign Up or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Bye Week Breakdown

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by Dantés, Nov 11, 2019.

  1. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    Here we are at the bye week at 8-2.

    They've had the 8th toughest schedule this season in terms of W/L. They are the only team with more than three wins against teams with winning records (they have five-- OAK, KC, MIN, DAL, CAR).

    They are 12th in scoring offense (25 ppg) and 12th in scoring defense (20.5 ppg). The former number has gone from bad to better, and the latter from good to worse.

    The Packers are 20th and 18th respectively in YPC and Yds/game in the running phase. They are 11th in both YPA and Yds/game in the passing phase.

    The Packers are 27th and 25th respectively in YPC allowed and Yds/game allowed in the running phase on defense. They are 26th and 23rd respectively in YPA allowed and Yds/game allowed in the passing phase on defense.

    They are 17th in sacks, and 20th in sack %. The Smith's have 18.5, but the rest of the team combined has only 6.5.

    At +4.5 points/game, their scoring differential is good for 7th. At +.9 turnovers per game, they are 3rd in TO differential.

    All told, their offense is far more balanced that it's been in past seasons and seems to be increasingly dangerous as they grow into the system. Their defense, despite the hot start, is not a particular strong unit, but it is opportunistic. They are living on turnovers.

    But even with the obvious weaknesses, it's hard to argue with their results against a strong schedule.
     
    • Informative Informative x 4
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    Here is my take on our starters and key role players at the bye. This is totally unscientific-- I'm just giving a take.

    Here's my scale:
    • 1: Giant liability
    • 2: Key weakness
    • 3: Poor
    • 4: Below average
    • 5: Average
    • 6: Above Average
    • 7: Great
    • 8: Pro Bowl
    • 9: All Pro
    • 10: HOF caliber
    Quarterback:
    • Aaron Rodgers, 9: Rodgers is absolutely a future hall of famer, but he's not quite at his absolute peak of HOF caliber play right now. That said, since getting comfortable in the offense, his play has really taken off and he's demonstrated that he's still an elite quarterback.
    Running Back:
    • Aaron Jones, 8: Jones' talent has been obvious since he got to Green Bay, but under Petals he's had a chance to make good on it. He's one of the handful of rare backs in this league who can carry a load on the ground and are dangerous at all levels of the field in the passing game. He's a stellar blocker as well.
    • Jamaal Williams, 5: Williams lacks Jones' dynamic ability, but he's solid in all phases-- a perfect backup, in my opinion. I also love the attitude he brings to the offense.
    • Danny Vitale, 8: Vitale is a pro-bowl caliber player at fullback, for whatever that's worth.
    Tight End:
    • Jimmy Graham, 5: I have been a big critic of Graham's, but I do have to say that his blocking has grown to be better than what I ever expected. He's become a very limited receiver, however.
    • Marcedes Lewis, 4: Lewis is a steady blocker, especially in the running game, but he offers even less as a receiver than Graham.
    Wide Receiver:
    • Davante Adams, 8: The drop off in production for Adams has to do with injury and early bumps in the road as the whole offense needed time. He is still as good as ever on the field.
    • Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 6: As an overall receiver, MVS is not above average. But in his particular role, a deep threat, I believe he is.
    • Geronimo Allison, 3: Allison has had some really gutsy moments this season, but he's still a poor slot receiver. He doesn't uncover early in the down and his YAC skills leave a lot to be desired.
    • Allen Lazard, INC: I haven't seen enough.
    Offensive Line:
    • David Bakhtiari, 7: This version of Bakhtiari is still a great starting tackle, especially by the standard of tackle play in this league. But he's had strange lapses this season-- in past year's I would have considered him a 9.
    • Elgton Jenkins, 7: Jenkins has been the best rookie on the Packers, and one of the best rookies in the league. His pass pro, outside of the Chargers game, has been strong, and his run blocking especially good.
    • Corey Linsley, 7: Linsley is super steady and reliable. People only tend to notice him in his bad moments.
    • Billy Turner, 6: Turner had some tough moments earlier in the season, but he's been solid more recently, especially in pass pro.
    • Bryan Bulaga, 9: Like the entire offense, Bulaga was terrible in L.A. But outside of that game, I don't know if you could find a better RT on the season.
    • Alex Light, 4: Light's first outing against the Eagles was pretty tough, but when he got another shot @KC, his play was much more encouraging.
    • Lucas Patrick, 4: Patrick would be a problem as a starting center or guard, but he's totally fine as a reserve.
    Defensive Line:
    • Kenny Clark, 6: Clark is having a down year by his standards. One hopes he's playing through something.
    • Dean Lowry, 5: Lowry has been a decent run defender, but his pass rush has been non-existent.
    • Tyler Lancaster, 4: For being a UDFA, Lancaster is a great get-- but nonetheless, he is playing more than he should.
    • Montravius Adams, 3: Adams' talent is still evident, but he's been very disappointing in terms of actual production.
    Edge:
    • Preston Smith, 9: Smith is on pace for 16 sacks and a whole bunch more QB hits. He's been capable dropping into coverage, and he's a good edge setter. There is a legit argument that he's been the best edge player in the league this year.
    • Za'Darius Smith, 8: Smith has been stellar in his own right, and brings a different kind of versatility in his ability to play at 3T.
    • Kyler Fackrell, 5: Fackrell isn't filling the stat sheet, but he's been really useful this season in coverage and has been around the QB even when not getting the sack.
    • Rashan Gary, 4: Gary is maybe the best pure run defender among the edge players, but he is still learning to harness his ability as a pass rusher.
    Linebacker:
    • Blake Martinez, 3: Martinez can make tackles, usually, if he's kept clean. He can't beat blockers to spots, shed them, or avoid them. He can't squeeze rushing lanes. He rarely makes tackles near, at, or behind the LOS. And he's bad in coverage.
    • B.J. Goodson, 4: Goodson is a liability in coverage, but he's at least willing to play downhill against the run and has even made some plays outside of the tackle box.
    Cornerback:
    • Jaire Alexander, 8: Alexander had a rough game @DAL and another @LAC. Otherwise, he's been excellent.
    • Kevin King, 4: King doesn't usually look like a 4. He looks like an 8 or a 2. However, lately it's been more 2 than 8. He has been a liability at times, despite a sprinkling of good play.
    • Tramon Williams, 6: Williams' age has shown at times, but he's been pretty reliable as our slot corner.
    • Josh Jackson, 1: Jackson hasn't seen the field much, but he's been an easy target for opposing offenses whenever he's out there.
    Safety:
    • Adrian Amos, 7: As advertised, Amos is not a huge playmaker, but he's supremely reliable.
    • Darnell Savage, 4: Savage is taking his rookie lumps. He's had his moments, but has been out of position at times.
    • Will Redmond, 2: Targeting Redmond has been a great offensive game plan for opposing teams.
    • Chandon Sullivan, 3: While he has made more plays than Redmond, Sullivan has likewise been something of a liability on the field.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2019
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Creative Creative x 1
  3. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    13
    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2018
    Packer Fan Since:
    2001
    I overall agree

    I'd give:

    Lazard a 6
    King a 5 (like you said he's either an 8 or 2 which combines to 10, so 10/2 = 5)
    Savage a 6

    *Again, I'm wondering if there's any way we could get Gary a shot at ILB??? As you even mentioned he's probably the best "pure run defender" among edge rushers... maybe he can play inside? who knows
     
  4. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    It would make infinitely more sense to me to use Fackrell as an inside linebacker than Gary.
     
  5. Scotland Yard

    Scotland Yard What the hell is going on around here!

    Messages:
    149
    Likes Received:
    30
    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2011
    Packer Fan Since:
    1977
    Lazard was the #2 WR vs. CAR. Lazard had 6 targets to Scantlings 1, Kumerow 2 and Geronimo 3. Lazard has 220 rec yds on the season, putting him ahead of Geronimo's 211. Given where he came from I'd give him a 5 or 6.

    Rodgers I'd have at maybe 7 - great is what you called 7. That seems right. I lower him because he has missed a lot of deep balls this year that in the past were TD's. He has room to improve and I believe he will as his comfort with LaFleur grows.

    Martinez is a 1 or 2. Teams are attacking him as a key weakness and he is no longer making sure tackles when unblocked. He is finished in GB...the sooner the better.

    Outside of those small quibbles I think you made a great list which fairly evaluates the team.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  6. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

    Messages:
    2,534
    Likes Received:
    232
    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2015
    Packer Fan Since:
    1972
    Overall, I like your list and more or less agree with it. I do wonder why Josh Jackson is even on it though. There are other defensive backs on the team that didn’t make the list that are ahead of him on the depth chart.
     
  7. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    On Fackrell playing in an ILB spot, they've done some of that already.

    It was actually Fackrell at ILB who defeated the LG and was the first player to get to McCaffrey on the stuff yesterday. Martinez was being escorted towards the back of the end zone by the right guard.
     
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

    Messages:
    13,229
    Likes Received:
    934
    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2012
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    Packer Fan Since:
    1959
    In my typical stream of consciousness mode of thinking, this popped into my head:

    https://www.lazard.com/

    If he turns into a player, I'd grant him the nickname "The Banker" as in "money in the ..." ;)

    Seriously, though, thanks for the effort and I have no serious disagreements. I would call a "7" in this ranking "very good", not "great". "Great" is a word I would reserve for Pro Bowl / All Pro performance.

    I would grade J. Williams, King and Savage slightly higher, a 1/2 to 1 point in different cases, on a scale where, for example, the average perimeter corner is the 32nd. best starter in the league in a average year, whatever that might mean in a rough eye test.

    I'd grade the following slightly lower: Rodgers, Turner, Bulaga, Alexander

    A week ago I would have said 3 is a bit harsh for Martinez despite sharing you criticisms. After watching him wave McCaffrey though a couple of holes this week (ergo, my assigning him the "The Matador" nickname) I've got to agree based on a new area of criticism: effort. When I see that stuff I start to think he's making business decisions to avoid injury going into his second contract.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2019
    • Like Like x 1
  9. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

    Messages:
    13,229
    Likes Received:
    934
    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2012
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    Packer Fan Since:
    1959
    I think Fackrell was overrated last season based on the 10 sacks, underappreciated this year in a rotational role. I think he's developed into a pretty solid ballplayer.

    I think a team that wanted a decent run defender who's respectable in zone coverage might actually be interested in signing him to start at a 4-3 OLB position if their budget demanded a lower cost option.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    Coming out of college, he reminded me of Kyle Van Noy at BYU, and now I think he might work best in a similar role to Van Noy's in New England.
     
    • Creative Creative x 1
  11. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

    Messages:
    2,534
    Likes Received:
    232
    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2015
    Packer Fan Since:
    1972
    Re: Martinez making business decisions. While my initial reaction to that is not at all positive, if true, perhaps that will work out in the Packers’ favor this year. It seems to me that if he has been laying low to avoid injury, that perhaps he has overplayed that hand and I would think greatly diminished his perceived free agency value. Hopefully, he will realize this and step it up over the second half of the season. That being said I sincerely hope the Packers let him walk at the end of the year.
     
  12. KyraReppe5

    KyraReppe5 "We're going to relentlessly chase perfection."

    Messages:
    1,054
    Likes Received:
    121
    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2015
    Location:
    Jamestown, RI
    Packer Fan Since:
    1996
    While this team is far from perfect, I think something important to note is that they currently lead the league in terms of win percentage when taking strength of schedule and strength of victory into account:

    San Franciso (8-0 ; SOS- .349 ; SOV- .349)
    Green Bay (8-2 ; SOS- .511 ; SOV- .520)
    New Orleans (7-2 ; SOS- .482 ; SOV- .508)
    Dallas (5-4 ; SOS- .424 ; SOV- .255)
    Seattle (7-2 ; SOS- .433 ; SOV- .336)
    Minnesota (7-2 ; SOS- .367 ; SOV- .446)

    New England (8-1; SOS-.366 ; SOV-.315)
    Baltimore (7-2; SOS- .416; SOV- .398)
    Houston (6-3; SOS-.506; SOV-.446)
    Kansas City (6-4; SOS- .575; SOV- .536)
    Buffalo (6-3; SOS-.337; SOV- .214)

    I am not saying the Packers are the best team in the league, but based on strength of victory, they have some impressive wins.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Informative Informative x 1
  13. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Messages:
    18,217
    Likes Received:
    2,078
    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Location:
    Madison, WI
    Packer Fan Since:
    1973
    My biggest disappointments thus far are:
    1. Blake Martinez: Contract year, for whatever reason(s) he has digressed a lot.
    2. Geronimo Allison: In my defense, I didn't have any confidence in him before the season started, but thought I was probably wrong, since the Packers went with him. I didn't disappoint myself at least. :D
    3. MVS: Looks to be a one trick pony. Really hasn't made the 2nd year jump that I thought he would.
    4. Shawn Mennenga/Special Teams: Just Pathetic, but I didn't expect much, other than maybe a little improvement.
    5. Amos: I know this probably will get criticized. Not that he has played bad, but I expected more impact plays out of him. Some games I barely know he is out there, which I guess some might say is a good thing. So maybe doesn't belong on this list, but still expect a bit more out of him in the next 6+ games.
    My biggest surprises:
    1. 8-2: I would not have thought this possible when we started the season.
    2. MLF: I think he has had a lot to do with why the Packers are 8-2. Some were worried that he was too green and he wouldn't be able to connect with Rodgers. I think he makes some mistakes but for the most part has shined, especially with #12. I also think he has been very instrumental in the team chemistry that seems to exist. That had all but disappeared under MM. He knows how to connect with the players in this generation.
    3. Smith Brothers: Enough said, these guys could go down as THE best two combined FA signings in a long time. Take these 2 together over Mack in a heartbeat.
    4. Aaron Jones: I will admit, I thought he was just a bit above average and his propensity to injuries his first 2 seasons might make him a lessor player. He has been fantastic in running and catching the ball.
    5. Kevin King: Figured he would be another low snap count injured player. He has stayed pretty healthy and I think he keeps getting better.
    6. Allen Lazard: I didn't want to fall into the trap of "this guy looks great in preseason" and think that would translate in the regular season. However, I think he has made the most if his opportunities and if he already hasn't, will pass MVS as 2nd WR on the depth chart.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2019
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. KyraReppe5

    KyraReppe5 "We're going to relentlessly chase perfection."

    Messages:
    1,054
    Likes Received:
    121
    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2015
    Location:
    Jamestown, RI
    Packer Fan Since:
    1996
    Adding to the suprise list is Elgton Jenkins. This kid could easily be the best rookie of the draft class. Adding to the disappointments is Josh Jackson. I really had high expectations for the early second round CB out of Iowa. To be honest and admit my mistake, I wanted him in the first round and was pleasantly surprised when he "fell" to the second. He could have been a total whiff.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  15. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Messages:
    18,217
    Likes Received:
    2,078
    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Location:
    Madison, WI
    Packer Fan Since:
    1973

    Thanks, forgot about Jenkins and yes, he has been a great surprise, so good catch on your part. I didn't include Josh Jackson, since he didn't look all that great last season. I get the sneaky feeling he is going to end up the same as many of the DB's before him recently, not as good as the Packers thought he would be, as well as a poor fit for the defense that they run. Maybe when teams can trade again, we can get John Dorsey in Cleveland to offer ups something for him?
     
  16. Calvin

    Calvin Cheesehead

    Messages:
    56
    Likes Received:
    5
    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2019
    Packer Fan Since:
    1985
    Everything looks pretty good, I'll score Martinez lower, 2. King, I'm starting to believe he has talent but is just playing the wrong position.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  17. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

    Messages:
    9,918
    Likes Received:
    889
    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2014
    Packer Fan Since:
    1980
    I think Amos has shown up in pretty much every game this year. not disappointed in him at all
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  18. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    Amos is on pace for 85 tackles, 2 TFL, 9 PD, 2 INT. This is all in line with his recent seasons in Chicago. He's reliable in coverage-- allowing receptions but not much by way of YAC, and he's a very secure tackler (2 missed tackles on the season-- Martinez has 11).

    In other words, he appears to be exactly the guy that the Packers paid for. His coverage numbers were a little better last year, but he was playing on a better defense so that figures.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  19. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

    Messages:
    308
    Likes Received:
    13
    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2018
    Packer Fan Since:
    2001
    Amos has been awesome, he's a better version of Morgan Burnett. I'm not worried at all about him
     
  20. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Messages:
    18,217
    Likes Received:
    2,078
    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Location:
    Madison, WI
    Packer Fan Since:
    1973
    You're welcome for fueling your fires! ;)

    Like I said, he probably didn't belong on the list, I just was expecting a bit more in the way of big splashy plays from him. I will take his being healthy and consistently playing his position well.
     
  21. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

    Messages:
    568
    Likes Received:
    72
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2013
    I almost completely agree with your assessment. I think I'd upgrade Martinez (4) and King (5) a notch, and downgrade Rodgers (8) and Alexander (7) a notch though.

    I'm cautiously optimistic on Lazard, as there is always some WR who seems to have a strong game for us and who we all brand the #2 for years to come. I am very happy with him, MVS (and ESB as he comes back) as our depth, but I believe the #2 is not on our roster right now. It will be the most immediate need (together with ILB) going into the 2020 Draft/FA.
     
  22. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    If the season ended today, my offseason wish list would include:
    • Competition at QB2
    • Competition at RB3
    • A true blocking TE2 to compliment Stern/Tonyan
    • A slot WR with YAC skills and SPEED
    • OL depth
    • An iDL with pass rush ability
    • Two off-ball LB's
    • A new slot CB
    • Competition at outside CB
    • Competition at K
    • A PUNT RETURNER
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  23. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

    Messages:
    6,942
    Likes Received:
    841
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Packer Fan Since:
    2017
    This probably sounds really arrogant but I don't care.

    All offseason, I talked about PR skills being important in the draft. I was often dismissed and told "they'll figure it our at PR."

    In preseason, when I was projecting Trevor Davis to make the roster for his PR skills, I was told "they shouldn't keep Davis-- they'll figure it out at PR."

    Well, it appears that if you just totally ignore the punt returner position, YOU END UP SUCKING PRETTY MIGHTILY IN THE PUNT RETURN GAME.

    That is all.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  24. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Messages:
    18,217
    Likes Received:
    2,078
    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Location:
    Madison, WI
    Packer Fan Since:
    1973
    A good needs list at this point in the season, it could change slightly, if some of the younger guys step up between now and the end of the season.

    I hope Gute can have as much success in Free Agency in 2020 as it appears that he had in 2019. I'm not going to throw FA names out there, since so much can happen between now and the FA signing period. However, I would be looking at a slot WR, ILB's and DL players as my FA targets. Trying to rely on immediately upgrading/fixing any of those positions through the draft, is a crap shoot at best.
     
  25. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

    Messages:
    18,217
    Likes Received:
    2,078
    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Location:
    Madison, WI
    Packer Fan Since:
    1973
    I was one against keeping Davis, but with the caveat that they draft/sign/trade for someone better. Not only did they not do that, but they released Davis, who at the time was really their best option. So yeah, I know what you are saying.

    I am also leaning towards the idea that it isn't just the player(s). Mennenga needs to have a fire lit under his a$$ or the Packers need to show him the door at some point. The ST issues don't seem to be limited to just the guys returning punts and kicks.
     

Share This Page

-->