Bye Week Assessment

[Dantés]

Before the season, my definition of "success" in 2023 was:

1) Love demonstrates that he is the QB of the future and develops with starting reps.

2) The defense either clicks or gets Barry fired.

So at 2-3 and not looking like a playoff team, success by my definition is still within reach. However, this is not a team that looks like it's ready to compete this season, which I thought might have been an outside possibility.

The offense just isn't developed enough to be relied upon. From what I have seen, I don't think Love has a debilitating accuracy problem. He is never going to be a consistent, pinpoint kind of thrower, but I think he has enough accuracy and other tools to be really effective. But what he does have is an offensive cohesion problem. And this makes sense. The "veterans" of the pass catching group are 2nd year players. Rookies at WR and TE have logged 632 snaps in 5 games. So the entire passing attack is both learning how to play at the NFL level and learning how to play together at the same time, all while the offensive line has been quite hobbled and their best running back as been mostly unavailable.

So while I am not sold that Love is the future of the franchise, I'm also not sold that he isn't. But this season is probably much more about him and the weapons finding cohesion and proving themselves (or failing to) than it is about winning games. Hopefully they continue to get healthy and figure some things out over the bye week.

On defense, I think you see flashes of how talented they are, and I don't think that Barry has been a disaster, but I also don't think he gets you anything more than the sum of your players. Teams like the Browns, Bills, Ravens, Saints, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, and Falcons have personnel that is either worse than or comparable to Green Bay's, and yet they're performing better. Maybe the most galling example is Houston, where Demeco Ryans has immediately made the cast-offs that compose Houston's defense more effective than Green Bay. Whether it's teaching, game-planning, play-calling, philosophy, or some combination... other teams (MANY other teams) have defensive coaches who are getting more out of their units than the sum of its parts. And Barry just doesn't seem to do that. I wonder if they already know that, but they didn't see the value in taking on the financial hit of moving on in a season that was viewed as developmental.

So here at the bye, I would say I am hoping for growing cohesion on offense and clarity on defense. I would not be sorry if they unloaded some players for draft capital at the deadline, though contractually that could be hard to do. I think success this season is within reach. I won't tell anything how they should "fan," but if you want some free advice, don't make this season about wins and losses. I think you'll enjoy it a lot more if you focus on how players are growing (unless they don't and then it will just plain stink all the way around).

 

[Firethorn1001]

If he doesn't significantly improve his longer throws, then Love isn't the guy. I don't know if that is primarily because they aren't on the same page and that will improve with reps, uncomfortable behind the line, bad plays or if he just can't throw deep. The 2nd one, can't exist in the NFL without being able to throw deep.

Still waiting to see how the rest of the rest plays out. If they play in Week 17 like they played in week 5.. serious doubts.

 

[gopkrs]

If he doesn't significantly improve his longer throws, then Love isn't the guy. I don't know if that is primarily because they aren't on the same page and that will improve with reps, uncomfortable behind the line, bad plays or if he just can't throw deep. The 2nd one, can't exist in the NFL without being able to throw deep.

Still waiting to see how the rest of the rest plays out. If they play in Week 17 like they played in week 5.. serious doubts.

I really think he should be practicing more deep throws. No, I don't know what he does, but he needs to get more accurate on the deep throws.

 

[JK64]

1) Love demonstrates that he is the QB of the future and develops with starting reps.

He sure hasn't yet. So far, he looks like a garbage int. throwing machine.

2) The defense either clicks or gets Barry fired.

Agreed. They should fire him today.

 

[ARPackFan]

From that same thread this was definition of success I used.

1. A defense that plays up to its potential. Top 10. Barry fired if they don't accomplish this. (Fail - ranked 20th)
2. Special teams not losing games (Pass)
3. A WR group that runs the correct routes and can separate. Fewer drops (Fail)
4. A TE that can create matchup problems for defenses and is relevant. 500 yds receiving. (Pass - Luke Musgrave is leading all TEs and is averaging 32 yds a game. IMO, that's pretty good for a rookie.)
5. Efficient QB in first year as a starter that is close to, or above league averages for completion percentage (~64%) and TD/INT ratio (~2/1). Break 3000 yds passing and statistics trending upwards as season progresses. (2 of 3 Fail- 55.6% completion, 11TD/9Int, On track for 3600 yards, incomplete for season trends)
6. 2500+ yds rushing. Jones & Dillon should easily accomplish this. (Fail - Packers as a team are averaging less than 100 yds a game.)
7. Keep "WTF was that!?" yelling at the TV to a minimum when I watch the games. (Fail but I'm drinking more during games so that's a plus)

 

[Dantés]

He sure hasn't yet. So far, he looks like a garbage int. throwing machine.

Agreed. They should fire him today.

There has been both good and bad from Love so far. The growth isn’t going to be linear.

 

[tynimiller]

Before the season, my definition of "success" in 2023 was:

1) Love demonstrates that he is the QB of the future and develops with starting reps.

2) The defense either clicks or gets Barry fired.

So at 2-3 and not looking like a playoff team, success by my definition is still within reach. However, this is not a team that looks like it's ready to compete this season, which I thought might have been an outside possibility.

The offense just isn't developed enough to be relied upon. From what I have seen, I don't think Love has a debilitating accuracy problem. He is never going to be a consistent, pinpoint kind of thrower, but I think he has enough accuracy and other tools to be really effective. But what he does have is an offensive cohesion problem. And this makes sense. The "veterans" of the pass catching group are 2nd year players. Rookies at WR and TE have logged 632 snaps in 5 games. So the entire passing attack is both learning how to play at the NFL level and learning how to play together at the same time, all while the offensive line has been quite hobbled and their best running back as been mostly unavailable.

So while I am not sold that Love is the future of the franchise, I'm also not sold that he isn't. But this season is probably much more about him and the weapons finding cohesion and proving themselves (or failing to) than it is about winning games. Hopefully they continue to get healthy and figure some things out over the bye week.

On defense, I think you see flashes of how talented they are, and I don't think that Barry has been a disaster, but I also don't think he gets you anything more than the sum of your players. Teams like the Browns, Bills, Ravens, Saints, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, and Falcons have personnel that is either worse than or comparable to Green Bay's, and yet they're performing better. Maybe the most galling example is Houston, where Demeco Ryans has immediately made the cast-offs that compose Houston's defense more effective than Green Bay. Whether it's teaching, game-planning, play-calling, philosophy, or some combination... other teams (MANY other teams) have defensive coaches who are getting more out of their units than the sum of its parts. And Barry just doesn't seem to do that. I wonder if they already know that, but they didn't see the value in taking on the financial hit of moving on in a season that was viewed as developmental.

So here at the bye, I would say I am hoping for growing cohesion on offense and clarity on defense. I would not be sorry if they unloaded some players for draft capital at the deadline, though contractually that could be hard to do. I think success this season is within reach. I won't tell anything how they should "fan," but if you want some free advice, don't make this season about wins and losses. I think you'll enjoy it a lot more if you focus on how players are growing (unless they don't and then it will just plain stink all the way around).

Quoting because some need to read this twice

 

[tynimiller]

He sure hasn't yet. So far, he looks like a garbage int. throwing machine.

Agreed. They should fire him today.

LoL

He through five in first season as a starter has only two more INTs than Rodgers.

He already this season has more games protecting the ball more than not despite having two bad ones.

**FTR going to do something rare on here LOL - my recollection was just flat wrong here.

 

[longtimefan]

LoL

He through five in first season as a starter has only two more INTs than Rodgers.

He already this season has more games protecting the ball more than not despite having two bad ones.

Huh?

 

[longtimefan]

He sure hasn't yet. So far, he looks like a garbage int. throwing machine.

Agreed. They should fire him today.

So he didn’t led a come back win vs NO? And looked great vs Bears?

 

[tynimiller]

Huh?

Through five games, although I just checked and that doesn’t fit. Now I’m trying to figure out what I was thinking of. Let me check maybe I’m thinking what Rodgers did last year in five

 

[longtimefan]

Through five games, although I just checked and that doesn’t fit. Now I’m trying to figure out what I was thinking of. Let me check maybe I’m thinking what Rodgers did last year in five

Ooo

he has 2 more int than rodgers 1st season as a starter

 

[Magooch]

I hate continuing to invite Rodgers comparisons, but something I’ve been thinking about recently…

In Rodgers’ first season as starter, the organization had decided by October 31st that they had seen enough out of Rodgers to commit to him as “the guy” for the future and lock him up with a long-term contract.

October 31st is exactly three weeks from today. What would you need to see in the next three weeks to feel confident handing Love a 4+ year contract by then?

 

[milani]

Quoting because some need to read this twice

I believe success is if MLF and his staff can manufacture 7 wins no matter how and no matter what the stats say.

 

[Firethorn1001]

October 31st is exactly three weeks from today. What would you need to see in the next three weeks to feel confident handing Love a 4+ year contract by then?

I don't think there is anything that could happen in the next few weeks that would make me feel good about the Packers locking up Love to a long term contract especially given the value of those contracts. Week 13-17 were always going to be my gauge for where I thought the team was at.

 

[tynimiller]

I hate continuing to invite Rodgers comparisons, but something I’ve been thinking about recently…

In Rodgers’ first season as starter, the organization had decided by October 31st that they had seen enough out of Rodgers to commit to him as “the guy” for the future and lock him up with a long-term contract.

October 31st is exactly three weeks from today. What would you need to see in the next three weeks to feel confident handing Love a 4+ year contract by then?

More like he was through three games then the last two.

Truthfully I'm not in a rush unless he just starts lighting the league un-fire to extend him. He has another year on his contract, and I personally like the idea of mid or early next year deciding this.

 

[Krabs]

I hate continuing to invite Rodgers comparisons, but something I’ve been thinking about recently…

In Rodgers’ first season as starter, the organization had decided by October 31st that they had seen enough out of Rodgers to commit to him as “the guy” for the future and lock him up with a long-term contract.

October 31st is exactly three weeks from today. What would you need to see in the next three weeks to feel confident handing Love a 4+ year contract by then?

That's a really tough question. That's only the Broncos and vikings games in that window. He definitely would have to win both of those games in convincing fashion. I wouldn't feel comfortable locking him into a contract until we see the season results. I don't think he is the guy. I'd much rather they draft a QB in the offseason. I have a feeling we will be in the top 5ish for picks next season. If one of the big gun QBs falls to us I sure hope they take him.

 

[Magooch]

Teams like the Browns, Bills, Ravens, Saints, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, and Falcons have personnel that is either worse than or comparable to Green Bay's, and yet they're performing better. Maybe the most galling example is Houston, where Demeco Ryans has immediately made the cast-offs that compose Houston's defense more effective than Green Bay. Whether it's teaching, game-planning, play-calling, philosophy, or some combination... other teams (MANY other teams) have defensive coaches who are getting more out of their units than the sum of its parts. And Barry just doesn't seem to do that. I wonder if they already know that, but they didn't see the value in taking on the financial hit of moving on in a season that was viewed as developmental.

I agree with this for sure, but Houston brings up another interesting example.

Look at CJ Stroud.

Here’s who he’s throwing to:
WR Nico Collins - 3rd season, 3rd round pick
WR Tank Dell - rookie, 3rd round pick
WR Xavier Hutchinson - rookie, 6th round pick
WR John Metchie III- 2nd season, 2nd round pick (missed entire rookie season due to Leukemia)
WR Robert Woods - 10th season

TE Brevin Jordan - 3rd season, 5th round pick
TE Teagan Quitoriano - 2nd season, 5th round pick
TE Dalton Schultz - 6th season

And in the running game you’ve got Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary, Dare Ogunbowale, Mike Boone, and Andrew Beck.

So outside of Woods and Schultz it’s not like he has been surrounded with a ton of experienced vets or really much top-level talent at all. It’s mostly inexperienced, unproven, or unimpressive pass-catchers and there’s certainly no Aaron Jones to open things up for him.

At OL they have had injuries to C Scott Quessenberry, OT DJ Scaife, OT Kilian Zierer, OG Kenyon Green, OT Charlie Heck, C Juice Scruggs, C Kendrick Green, and OT Josh Jones. Maybe none of those are Bakh or Jenkins level injuries but suffice to say the OL has been banged up plenty down there too.

So consider Love and Stroud. Both have dealt with injuries and having to repeatedly shuffle around their OL. Both for the most part have a young and inexperienced pass catching corps. Both are largely lacking for an elite game-changer at RB (with Jones out). But with all that factored in, Stroud looks like a front runner for OROY and Love has statistically been near the bottom of just about every significant QB measure.

Is Stroud simply better than Love? Do Green Bay’s injuries impact them that much more meaningfully than Houston’s so as to explain the discrepancy? Is the age/experience deficit in GB really THAT much greater? I don’t think anyone would really argue that Love has looked better than Stroud through 5 games. Is Stroud’s situation really that much more advantageous?

Now don’t get me wrong. I am not trying to slam Love or say he sucks or any of that. I’m sure there’s not any one clear-cut answer here. But I guess what I’m getting at is that… while Love has certainly had some factors working against him, he’s certainly not the other young QB dealing with adversity and it seems like young QBs elsewhere are either handling it better or at least in a situation that has them set up to deal with said adversity better… how much of that comes down to coaching/scheme? I’ve said it elsewhere; Love hasn’t always made things easy for himself but it also seems like on most plays he simply doesn’t have any “easy” option available to him…

 

[tynimiller]

I agree with this for sure, but Houston brings up another interesting example.

Look at CJ Stroud.

Here’s who he’s throwing to:
WR Nico Collins - 3rd season, 3rd round pick
WR Tank Dell - rookie, 3rd round pick
WR Xavier Hutchinson - rookie, 6th round pick
WR John Metchie III- 2nd season, 2nd round pick (missed entire rookie season due to Leukemia)
WR Robert Woods - 10th season

TE Brevin Jordan - 3rd season, 5th round pick
TE Teagan Quitoriano - 2nd season, 5th round pick
TE Dalton Schultz - 6th season

And in the running game you’ve got Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary, Dare Ogunbowale, Mike Boone, and Andrew Beck.

So outside of Woods and Schultz it’s not like he has been surrounded with a ton of experienced vets or really much top-level talent at all. It’s mostly inexperienced, unproven, or unimpressive pass-catchers and there’s certainly no Aaron Jones to open things up for him.

At OL they have had injuries to C Scott Quessenberry, OT DJ Scaife, OT Kilian Zierer, OG Kenyon Green, OT Charlie Heck, C Juice Scruggs, C Kendrick Green, and OT Josh Jones. Maybe none of those are Bakh or Jenkins level injuries but suffice to say the OL has been banged up plenty down there too.

So consider Love and Stroud. Both have dealt with injuries and having to repeatedly shuffle around their OL. Both for the most part have a young and inexperienced pass catching corps. Both are largely lacking for an elite game-changer at RB (with Jones out). But with all that factored in, Stroud looks like a front runner for OROY and Love has statistically been near the bottom of just about every significant QB measure.

Is Stroud simply better than Love? Do Green Bay’s injuries impact them that much more meaningfully than Houston’s so as to explain the discrepancy? Is the age/experience deficit in GB really THAT much greater? I don’t think anyone would really argue that Love has looked better than Stroud through 5 games. Is Stroud’s situation really that much more advantageous?

Now don’t get me wrong. I am not trying to slam Love or say he sucks or any of that. I’m sure there’s not any one clear-cut answer here. But I guess what I’m getting at is that… while Love has certainly had some factors working against him, he’s certainly not the other young QB dealing with adversity and it seems like young QBs elsewhere are either handling it better or at least in a situation that has them set up to deal with said adversity better… how much of that comes down to coaching/scheme? I’ve said it elsewhere; Love hasn’t always made things easy for himself but it also seems like on most plays he simply doesn’t have any “easy” option available to him…

I think you're downplaying mightedly the difference between us and them....games played in the NFL going into this season:

Houston WRs - Robert Woods alone had 142 games....but Nico also had 24 going into the season for total of 166 games
Green Bay WRs - Doubs 13 / Watson 14 / Toure 10...which Toure was barely used but logged 10 games for a total of 37 games

Snapcounts would be insane if compared....

Houston TEs - Brevin 20 going into the season / Teagan 9 / Dalton 75 for total of = 104 games
GB TEs - Deguara with 35 for the total

 

[Dantés]

I agree with this for sure, but Houston brings up another interesting example.

Look at CJ Stroud.

Here’s who he’s throwing to:
WR Nico Collins - 3rd season, 3rd round pick
WR Tank Dell - rookie, 3rd round pick
WR Xavier Hutchinson - rookie, 6th round pick
WR John Metchie III- 2nd season, 2nd round pick (missed entire rookie season due to Leukemia)
WR Robert Woods - 10th season

TE Brevin Jordan - 3rd season, 5th round pick
TE Teagan Quitoriano - 2nd season, 5th round pick
TE Dalton Schultz - 6th season

And in the running game you’ve got Dameon Pierce, Devin Singletary, Dare Ogunbowale, Mike Boone, and Andrew Beck.

So outside of Woods and Schultz it’s not like he has been surrounded with a ton of experienced vets or really much top-level talent at all. It’s mostly inexperienced, unproven, or unimpressive pass-catchers and there’s certainly no Aaron Jones to open things up for him.

At OL they have had injuries to C Scott Quessenberry, OT DJ Scaife, OT Kilian Zierer, OG Kenyon Green, OT Charlie Heck, C Juice Scruggs, C Kendrick Green, and OT Josh Jones. Maybe none of those are Bakh or Jenkins level injuries but suffice to say the OL has been banged up plenty down there too.

So consider Love and Stroud. Both have dealt with injuries and having to repeatedly shuffle around their OL. Both for the most part have a young and inexperienced pass catching corps. Both are largely lacking for an elite game-changer at RB (with Jones out). But with all that factored in, Stroud looks like a front runner for OROY and Love has statistically been near the bottom of just about every significant QB measure.

Is Stroud simply better than Love? Do Green Bay’s injuries impact them that much more meaningfully than Houston’s so as to explain the discrepancy? Is the age/experience deficit in GB really THAT much greater? I don’t think anyone would really argue that Love has looked better than Stroud through 5 games. Is Stroud’s situation really that much more advantageous?

Now don’t get me wrong. I am not trying to slam Love or say he sucks or any of that. I’m sure there’s not any one clear-cut answer here. But I guess what I’m getting at is that… while Love has certainly had some factors working against him, he’s certainly not the other young QB dealing with adversity and it seems like young QBs elsewhere are either handling it better or at least in a situation that has them set up to deal with said adversity better… how much of that comes down to coaching/scheme? I’ve said it elsewhere; Love hasn’t always made things easy for himself but it also seems like on most plays he simply doesn’t have any “easy” option available to him…

Stroud was a top 5 pick and, for my money, the best QB in the draft. I don't think the comparison is exactly fair.

 

[tynimiller]

Stroud was a top 5 pick and, for my money, the best QB in the draft. I don't think the comparison is exactly fair.

I still remember folks arguing the tiny Young was the better prospect...I just struggle to ever see such a small QB surviving long term.

You are right in the not fair...they have seasoned veterans in each skill position group.

 

[Magooch]

I think you're downplaying mightedly the difference between us and them....games played in the NFL going into this season:

Houston WRs - Robert Woods alone had 142 games....but Nico also had 24 going into the season for total of 166 games
Green Bay WRs - Doubs 13 / Watson 14 / Toure 10...which Toure was barely used but logged 10 games for a total of 37 games

Snapcounts would be insane if compared....

Houston TEs - Brevin 20 going into the season / Teagan 9 / Dalton 75 for total of = 104 games
GB TEs - Deguara with 35 for the total

If you gave Love Houston’s pass catchers to work with instead of ours, do you think he’d be doing appreciably better right now?
Would Stroud be considerably worse if you gave him ours?

I’m not saying it’s not a factor whatsoever but I also don’t think washed up Robert Woods and Co is moving the needle THAT much for Houston. At least not nearly enough to fully explain the discrepancy.

 

[Magooch]

Stroud was a top 5 pick and, for my money, the best QB in the draft. I don't think the comparison is exactly fair.

I had the same, but that’s not my point. It’s not so much about Stroud’s projection or where he was picked or even Stroud in particular.
Rather we have seen all sorts of excuses or explanations given for Love’s performances and keep hearing how he doesn’t have much starting experience and needs more time before we can judge. But the younger Stroud has even LESS experience (less starts, and of course far less time in the league overall) and I’d argue a less talented supporting cast but is pretty clearly doing more with it. (And I suspect there are other young QBs which you could compare against as well, unless we are of the mind that Love has found himself in a uniquely disadvantageous situation that puts him behind all other young QBs)

So again I’d ask: is Stroud (or whoever you like) simply that much better? Is having some additional experienced fringe skill players enough to explain the difference? Or is Stroud (again, insert name here) being put in a situation (scheme/playcalling/coaching) that’s maximizing his talents AND the talent (or lack thereof) around him?

I don’t think Love sucks. Again it’s not my point to say that Stroud or whoever is better than him or that Love is just no good. I’m generally of the mind that Love is a good player but that other players on other teams have encountered similarly adverse circumstances but they’ve benefitted from an approach/coaching staff that’s been able to minimize those circumstances and put them in a better position to succeed.

 

[tynimiller]

If you gave Love Houston’s pass catchers to work with instead of ours, do you think he’d be doing appreciably better right now?
Would Stroud be considerably worse if you gave him ours?

I’m not saying it’s not a factor whatsoever but I also don’t think washed up Robert Woods and Co is moving the needle THAT much for Houston. At least not nearly enough to fully explain the discrepancy.

I absolutely think it would be a better offense - to what degree those hypotheticals are never worth claiming...but I would bet seriously if you added Woods to our WR room and Schultz to our TE room, there would be a measurable change to the offense.

 

[tynimiller]

Few reflections looking back that are massive positive takeaways to shift gears a touch from all the negative things (with validity) folks want to focus on...

Andres Carlson has been absolutely flawless. 7 of 7 on FGs and 10 for 10 on XPs, he quite literally couldn't have played till the bye any better.

Rudy Ford proving to be a big play type guy and above average safety play. I am beginning to think there is more likelihood that he is here next year than there is for Savage.

3rd Quarter dominance...while we've been quite mixed in the first half and fourth quarters...we are the most prolific scoring team in the NFL at +35 in that quarter. That is a glimmer of what could be.