Bye Week Breakdown

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I was one against keeping Davis, but with the caveat that they draft/sign/trade for someone better. Not only did they not do that, but they released Davis, who at the time was really their best option. So yeah, I know what you are saying.

I am also leaning towards the idea that it isn't just the player(s). Mennenga needs to have a fire lit under his *** or the Packers need to show him the door at some point. The ST issues don't seem to be limited to just the guys returning punts and kicks.

The "Fire Shawn Menenga" trend is a bit premature. But his unit has had a lot of problems in the return game. Crosby has been good. Their net punting is decent (12th). I can't find any stats on KO yards allowed. They are 13th best in average LOS per opponent drive-- the average starting field position for opponent drives is their own 28 yard line. They are 26th in terms of their own starting LOS per drive (their own 26 yard line).

So his unit is really, really bad in one particular area (returns), but fine most everywhere else. It's hard for me to put all of the blame on him for that given the options he's been provided in the return game.
 

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Regarding Amos, I don't think any of us were expecting/wanting 5+ interceptions from him right off the bat in comparison to consistent play and being in position.

Do you remember how many times HaHa or guys lik Sharper were out of position without a consistent safety/partner in the back who could be in position?

That said, I am hopeful that Savage becomes a 5+ interception guy as I have liked jos


You're welcome for fueling your fires! ;)

Like I said, he probably didn't belong on the list, I just was expecting a bit more in the way of big splashy plays from him. I will take his being healthy and consistently playing his position well.
If the season ended today, my offseason wish list would include:
  • Competition at QB2
  • Competition at RB3
  • A true blocking TE2 to compliment Stern/Tonyan
  • A slot WR with YAC skills and SPEED
  • OL depth
  • An iDL with pass rush ability
  • Two off-ball LB's
  • A new slot CB
  • Competition at outside CB
  • Competition at K
  • A PUNT RETURNER


Pretty good, I'd change/add

I don't think we need RB3 competition (that's a "nice to have" i think) although that reminds me of the 2003 season with Ahman, Najeh Davenport, and Tony Fisher

I still think we need to see Stern/Tonyan PROVE themselves first before we start looking for a "compliment"

For an IDL, it still puzzles me why we let Daniels go???

For the 2 CB comments, it would be nice to have Micah Hyde back right now :)
 

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You're welcome for fueling your fires! ;)

Like I said, he probably didn't belong on the list, I just was expecting a bit more in the way of big splashy plays from him. I will take his being healthy and consistently playing his position well.

I don't think anyone was expecting Amos to be a "playmaker" type who can get you 5+ interceptions for instance.

What the D was really missing was someone like Burnett who was generally always in position and can TACKLE and can "cover some". I've been very happy with Amos doing those things

I would expect Savage to blossom more into the 5+ interception type of guy with the athleticism he has shown
 
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Regarding Amos, I don't think any of us were expecting/wanting 5+ interceptions from him right off the bat in comparison to consistent play and being in position.

Do you remember how many times HaHa or guys lik Sharper were out of position without a consistent safety/partner in the back who could be in position?

That said, I am hopeful that Savage becomes a 5+ interception guy as I have liked jos






Pretty good, I'd change/add

I don't think we need RB3 competition (that's a "nice to have" i think) although that reminds me of the 2003 season with Ahman, Najeh Davenport, and Tony Fisher

I still think we need to see Stern/Tonyan PROVE themselves first before we start looking for a "compliment"

For an IDL, it still puzzles me why we let Daniels go???

For the 2 CB comments, it would be nice to have Micah Hyde back right now :)

He was/is old, coming off injury (and maybe they knew he wasn't right), and waning in productivity. There were also a lot of rumors that he was an issue in the lockerroom-- that teammates felt he was all talk, and were tired of his schtick.

Having a healthy Daniels this season would have helped in the running game, but I don't think it would have made much a difference in the pass rush department.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Coming out of college, he reminded me of Kyle Van Noy at BYU, and now I think he might work best in a similar role to Van Noy's in New England.
New England as landing spot for Fackrell also crossed my mind.
 

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He was/is old, coming off injury (and maybe they knew he wasn't right), and waning in productivity. There were also a lot of rumors that he was an issue in the lockerroom-- that teammates felt he was all talk, and were tired of his schtick.

Having a healthy Daniels this season would have helped in the running game, but I don't think it would have made much a difference in the pass rush department.

You're right about the locker room i forgot.

I disagree with the old comment though... 30 is not "old" for an NFL DE I don't think... maybe if he was 34/35...then yes

For pass rush, while he isn't Suh in his prime, he's someone to account for. I feel that part of Clark's "down year" is attributed to him not having someone like Daniels playing alongside him down in the trenches, having another true DL big bodied guy down there
 
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You're right about the locker room i forgot.

I disagree with the old comment though... 30 is not "old" for an NFL DE I don't think... maybe if he was 34/35...then yes

For pass rush, while he isn't Suh in his prime, he's someone to account for. I feel that part of Clark's "down year" is attributed to him not having someone like Daniels playing alongside him down in the trenches, having another true DL big bodied guy down there

He was playing/declining like an old player.
 

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Considering Daniels has only played 86 snaps for Detroit, has 3 combined tackles and one sack.....Gute must have had a crystal ball when letting him go. I also think he was pretty good at reading the writing on the wall.

Big Mike seemed like a nice guy, but his best years are behind him and he definitely wasn't worth the money that the Packers saved by cutting him.
 
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Amos is on pace for 85 tackles, 2 TFL, 9 PD, 2 INT. This is all in line with his recent seasons in Chicago. He's reliable in coverage-- allowing receptions but not much by way of YAC, and he's a very secure tackler (2 missed tackles on the season-- Martinez has 11).

In other words, he appears to be exactly the guy that the Packers paid for. His coverage numbers were a little better last year, but he was playing on a better defense so that figures.
Yup, we're getting from him about what I expected, a good, solid football player. It's a good thing since he was my #1 free agent target ;) kind of making up for backing the Gary pick (though that's an open book).

One thing I noticed which I can't verify with a link is the catch rate against him is going done. I seem to recall in the early going it was something like 17 of 20, give or take, according to pro-football-reference, now 25 of 35. PFF's numbers were and are similar though I see PFF charging more targets and catches on several players, Amos included. Just an impression, but I think they guess who's at fault some some zone seams and holes that PFR does not.

Amos' coverage improvement is consistent with the passes defended, one in the first 6 games, 4 in the last 4 games. I'm pretty sure he did not get credit for a PD on the Williams interception last week. I checked the ESPN box score shortly after it happened and a PD was not recorded. I guess that goes to the guy who made the pick. Amos' coverage improvement may be a function of scheme acclimation. Also, earlier in the year they were throwing him in for some hybrid ILB snaps after Greene went down, an unfamiliar position in what for him is a new scheme. It looks like they've shelved those ILB snaps in the more recent games.

His PFF grade was in the mid-60's last time I checked a few weeks ago; their current 73 again says this is a good, solid football player though when we watch a player week in and week out we don't really need their help. They've probably taken note of the improved coverage snaps in recent games.

He's also not without some big plays. The pick in Week 1 was huge. That tip-to-Williams was equally huge, probably a TD saver. The replay from the behind the QB shows Williams not yet on the screen when Amos tipped it.

Around the time of Amos' signing I observed he played more FS than SS with the Bears, with his solid back-end play giving Jackson some route-jumping liberties. Note that Jackson has no INTs this season, no defensive TDs, no forced fumbles and three PDs playing with Clinton-Dix vs. his gaudy 6/3/2/15 numbers last season with Amos.

We discussed how a PFF grade is about what they think a guy is asked to do, not what he is not asked to do because he's not able to do it. Well, who's playing next to you can have an equivalent affect.
 
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Regarding Amos, I don't think any of us were expecting/wanting 5+ interceptions from him right off the bat in comparison to consistent play and being in position.

Do you remember how many times HaHa or guys lik Sharper were out of position without a consistent safety/partner in the back who could be in position?

That said, I am hopeful that Savage becomes a 5+ interception guy as I have liked jos






Pretty good, I'd change/add

I don't think we need RB3 competition (that's a "nice to have" i think) although that reminds me of the 2003 season with Ahman, Najeh Davenport, and Tony Fisher

I still think we need to see Stern/Tonyan PROVE themselves first before we start looking for a "compliment"

For an IDL, it still puzzles me why we let Daniels go???

For the 2 CB comments, it would be nice to have Micah Hyde back right now :)
Apparently you haven’t been following Daniels much this year. He has hardly played. Still dealing with that foot injury among others. He got into Sunday’s loss to the Bears, but left the game ... with an injury. I’m not sure why you keep wondering why the Packers let him go. He hasn’t been productive for over two years.
 
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Here is my take on our starters and key role players at the bye. This is totally unscientific-- I'm just giving a take.

Here's my scale:
  • 1: Giant liability
  • 2: Key weakness
  • 3: Poor
  • 4: Below average
  • 5: Average
  • 6: Above Average
  • 7: Great
  • 8: Pro Bowl
  • 9: All Pro
  • 10: HOF caliber
Quarterback:
  • Aaron Rodgers, 9: Rodgers is absolutely a future hall of famer, but he's not quite at his absolute peak of HOF caliber play right now. That said, since getting comfortable in the offense, his play has really taken off and he's demonstrated that he's still an elite quarterback.
Running Back:
  • Aaron Jones, 8: Jones' talent has been obvious since he got to Green Bay, but under Petals he's had a chance to make good on it. He's one of the handful of rare backs in this league who can carry a load on the ground and are dangerous at all levels of the field in the passing game. He's a stellar blocker as well.
  • Jamaal Williams, 5: Williams lacks Jones' dynamic ability, but he's solid in all phases-- a perfect backup, in my opinion. I also love the attitude he brings to the offense.
  • Danny Vitale, 8: Vitale is a pro-bowl caliber player at fullback, for whatever that's worth.
Tight End:
  • Jimmy Graham, 5: I have been a big critic of Graham's, but I do have to say that his blocking has grown to be better than what I ever expected. He's become a very limited receiver, however.
  • Marcedes Lewis, 4: Lewis is a steady blocker, especially in the running game, but he offers even less as a receiver than Graham.
Wide Receiver:
  • Davante Adams, 8: The drop off in production for Adams has to do with injury and early bumps in the road as the whole offense needed time. He is still as good as ever on the field.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 6: As an overall receiver, MVS is not above average. But in his particular role, a deep threat, I believe he is.
  • Geronimo Allison, 3: Allison has had some really gutsy moments this season, but he's still a poor slot receiver. He doesn't uncover early in the down and his YAC skills leave a lot to be desired.
  • Allen Lazard, INC: I haven't seen enough.
Offensive Line:
  • David Bakhtiari, 7: This version of Bakhtiari is still a great starting tackle, especially by the standard of tackle play in this league. But he's had strange lapses this season-- in past year's I would have considered him a 9.
  • Elgton Jenkins, 7: Jenkins has been the best rookie on the Packers, and one of the best rookies in the league. His pass pro, outside of the Chargers game, has been strong, and his run blocking especially good.
  • Corey Linsley, 7: Linsley is super steady and reliable. People only tend to notice him in his bad moments.
  • Billy Turner, 6: Turner had some tough moments earlier in the season, but he's been solid more recently, especially in pass pro.
  • Bryan Bulaga, 9: Like the entire offense, Bulaga was terrible in L.A. But outside of that game, I don't know if you could find a better RT on the season.
  • Alex Light, 4: Light's first outing against the Eagles was pretty tough, but when he got another shot @KC, his play was much more encouraging.
  • Lucas Patrick, 4: Patrick would be a problem as a starting center or guard, but he's totally fine as a reserve.
Defensive Line:
  • Kenny Clark, 6: Clark is having a down year by his standards. One hopes he's playing through something.
  • Dean Lowry, 5: Lowry has been a decent run defender, but his pass rush has been non-existent.
  • Tyler Lancaster, 4: For being a UDFA, Lancaster is a great get-- but nonetheless, he is playing more than he should.
  • Montravius Adams, 3: Adams' talent is still evident, but he's been very disappointing in terms of actual production.
Edge:
  • Preston Smith, 9: Smith is on pace for 16 sacks and a whole bunch more QB hits. He's been capable dropping into coverage, and he's a good edge setter. There is a legit argument that he's been the best edge player in the league this year.
  • Za'Darius Smith, 8: Smith has been stellar in his own right, and brings a different kind of versatility in his ability to play at 3T.
  • Kyler Fackrell, 5: Fackrell isn't filling the stat sheet, but he's been really useful this season in coverage and has been around the QB even when not getting the sack.
  • Rashan Gary, 4: Gary is maybe the best pure run defender among the edge players, but he is still learning to harness his ability as a pass rusher.
Linebacker:
  • Blake Martinez, 3: Martinez can make tackles, usually, if he's kept clean. He can't beat blockers to spots, shed them, or avoid them. He can't squeeze rushing lanes. He rarely makes tackles near, at, or behind the LOS. And he's bad in coverage.
  • B.J. Goodson, 4: Goodson is a liability in coverage, but he's at least willing to play downhill against the run and has even made some plays outside of the tackle box.
Cornerback:
  • Jaire Alexander, 8: Alexander had a rough game @DAL and another @LAC. Otherwise, he's been excellent.
  • Kevin King, 4: King doesn't usually look like a 4. He looks like an 8 or a 2. However, lately it's been more 2 than 8. He has been a liability at times, despite a sprinkling of good play.
  • Tramon Williams, 6: Williams' age has shown at times, but he's been pretty reliable as our slot corner.
  • Josh Jackson, 1: Jackson hasn't seen the field much, but he's been an easy target for opposing offenses whenever he's out there.
Safety:
  • Adrian Amos, 7: As advertised, Amos is not a huge playmaker, but he's supremely reliable.
  • Darnell Savage, 4: Savage is taking his rookie lumps. He's had his moments, but has been out of position at times.
  • Will Redmond, 2: Targeting Redmond has been a great offensive game plan for opposing teams.
  • Chandon Sullivan, 3: While he has made more plays than Redmond, Sullivan has likewise been something of a liability on the field.
About the only thing that wouldn’t be splitting hairs is Chandon Sullivan. Considering he’s a walk on he’s played admirably. I’d have him a 5-6 range. He’s not a focus of this D necessarily, so again just balancing ST and limited snaps he’s played decent. I could see him competing for a starting role by next season.
I liked it overall though nice job
 
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About the only thing that wouldn’t be splitting hairs is Chandon Sullivan. Considering he’s a walk on he’s played admirably. I’d have him a 5-6 range. He’s not a focus of this D necessarily, so again just balancing ST and limited snaps he’s played decent. I could see him competing for a starting role by next season.
I liked it overall though nice job

I might be too low on him. There isn't a whole lot to go on. However, I am not changing the scoring based on expectations. A 4 for a starter is a problem, but for a backup it's pretty good.
 
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I might be too low on him. There isn't a whole lot to go on. However, I am not changing the scoring based on expectations. A 4 for a starter is a problem, but for a backup it's pretty good.
You have him as a 3 (poor).
 
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HardRightEdge

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The "Fire Shawn Menenga" trend is a bit premature. But his unit has had a lot of problems in the return game. Crosby has been good. Their net punting is decent (12th). I can't find any stats on KO yards allowed. They are 13th best in average LOS per opponent drive-- the average starting field position for opponent drives is their own 28 yard line. They are 26th in terms of their own starting LOS per drive (their own 26 yard line).

So his unit is really, really bad in one particular area (returns), but fine most everywhere else. It's hard for me to put all of the blame on him for that given the options he's been provided in the return game.
The penalties on returns are way down.

Average return on punts may be the most deceiving stat in football because they do not account for all the bad things that can and do happen on those plays:

1 - Fumbles. A double whammy of possession loss and a mess of field position. Shepherd is now on the PS.
T2 - Block in the back and holding penalties. Each one wipes out any 10 yard return on another punt. These are particularly rankling on fair catches.
T2 - Letting the ball hit the ground instead of coming up in traffic to fair catch. This was a Davis specialty. Sometimes you get lucky. Ususally not. That can cost you 10 or even 20 yards in field position wiping out a like return.
3 - Brain fart fair catches inside the 5; letting it bounce will work out more often than not.

Long returns are valuable, but they are rare across the league anymore. Getting one will not change your season. The rules are such that there are no Hesters anymore who can impact games more often than rarely.

Frankly, if the Packers avoid all negative plays on punt returns and fair catch every d*mn one that's lot better than than netting a 10 yard average with one long return with a bunch of negative plays offsetting those returns over the course of the season.

Of course you would prefer both, clean play and long returns. Clean play, however, will suffice. And this crew is a lot cleaner than Zook's outfits.

KO returns? Meh. Again, the league is doing everything possible to kill this play. The preponderance are touchbacks. Patterson has the most KO runbacks this season with 19, about two per game. He's got a TD and he's second in average at 29.1. But on the 18 that were not TDs he's averaging 23.3, not even as good as a touchback. How many of those did he take out of the end zone? Subtract those end zone yards from the average relative to taking the touchback.

The priorties on KO returns are:

1. If it is in the end zone, don't take it out. Period. The one exception is a ball that's borderline near the goal line. You can't take the chance that it lands in the field of play and kicks backward as a free ball. I would not begrudge a guy lrunning it out from one yard deep. He's got only one pair eyes and he better not be looking at his feet.
2. If you must field the ball, don't fumble.
3. Don't block in the back or hold or put hands to the face or anything else that draws a flag.
4. Don't do what Carolina's guy did twice: fail to pick it up clean and get dumped at the 10 or 15 yard line.

Again, avoiding negative plays is more important than any one splashy return over he course of a season.
 
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HardRightEdge

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I can't find any stats on KO yards allowed.
The Packers have had 20 KOs returned against them for a 26.2 average (27th.) with a long return of 67 yards. Take out the one long return and the 19 others average 24.0 yards, not even as good as a touchback. The median average in the league (Ravens/Jags) is 23.0. The Packers difference is a whopping 6.4 yards per game, a tiny amount when not giving up a 67 yarder.

The Giants lead the league giving up a sterling 14.8 yds per return on 12 returns. Where's that gotten them?

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=D&cat=KR&yr=2019&lg=NFL&sort=kravg

I'm not saying it doesn't matter at all. That would be foolish. What I am saying is the impact between being good at it (returning as well as defending) vs. a little below average is pretty small.

Opponents have returned 17 punts for an 8.7 average with a long return of 32, not inconsistent with the decent net you noted.

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=D&cat=PR&yr=2019&lg=NFL

Even the avg. return stat can be deceiving. Those 17 retuns rank 12th. fewest in the league while the Packers have punted 47 times, 5th. most in the league. 8.7 per return doesn't look so good when opponents return only about 1/3 of what's kicked to them. One thing, though. Try not to get any punts blocked again in the future. That's another d*mn kicking stat abberation: blocks are not averaged in but amount to a turnover in lost field position.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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Interesting.....

Eddie Jackson last year in 14 games next to Adrian Amos:

-6 Interceptions
-15 Passes defended
-2 Forced fumbles
-1 Fumble recovery
-1 Sack
-3 TDs

Eddie Jackson this year in 9 games next to Ha Ha:

-0 Interceptions
-3 Passes defended
-0 Forced fumbles
-1 Fumble recovery
-0 Sacks
-0 TDs
 
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Interesting.....

Eddie Jackson last year in 14 games next to Adrian Amos:

-6 Interceptions
-15 Passes defended
-2 Forced fumbles
-1 Fumble recovery
-1 Sack
-3 TDs

Eddie Jackson this year in 9 games next to Ha Ha:

-0 Interceptions
-3 Passes defended
-0 Forced fumbles
-1 Fumble recovery
-0 Sacks
-0 TDs

Amos' reliable consistency allowed Jackson to take chances and be a playmaker. This was noted before Amos ever left Chicago, though after he signed with the Packers, Bears fans denied it vehemently.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Amos' reliable consistency allowed Jackson to take chances and be a playmaker. This was noted before Amos ever left Chicago, though after he signed with the Packers, Bears fans denied it vehemently.
Agreed and potentially shows just how important having good players around you can be and how that can influence individual play. Had the Bears resigned Eddie Jackson after last season, what would they have paid him? After this season?

Basically, what we all already knew. When scouting College or NFL players, evaluations have to include trying to figure out just how much individual talent a player has VS how much the team he is playing for increases/decreases that perceived talent.

EDIT: Bears are seeing a decrease in Mack's effectiveness as well, especially after Hicks went down.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/b...etting-sacks-lately-leonard-floyd-akiem-hicks
 
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