A Jordan Love Contract

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Jordan Love is currently angling towards a season of 4K+ yards and over 30 touchdowns. His second-half pace has, statistically, been MVP level. He is clearly the franchise QB that we all hoped he would be. All the people who threw a fit on draft day and trashed the pick/player for years need to learn from this.

Currently, Love is under contract for one more season-- 5.5M base salary with a 7.8M cap hit. They need to lock him up and they need to do it this off-season. So what would that contract look like?

The current market-setting deals belong to Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. They are all 5 year deals in the 260-275M total value range, meaning that they average 52-55M/season. Love's track record has not put him on that level yet, but that's the top of the market.

Coming off a decent 2022 season, Daniel Jones signed a deal for 4/160 (40M average) with 92M in total guarantees. That would be the absolute floor.

I think Love's deal will come in at a solid step up from Jones, while still being well below the top of the market.

My guess:

5 years, 212.5M (42.5M average), 140M in total guarantees

That deal would make Love the 10th highest paid QB per season in terms of current contracts. Obviously that ranking would go down over time as more guys sign contract. At his current trajectory, it would be quite a team-friendly deal.
 

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I said the Jones deal earlier this season in some other thread. I could see something this offseason with a way out after this year in case he's a flash in the pan or if picked up a long term deal similar to what you said. A big-azzd roster bonus March '25 would be in play. 5 year deal with maybe $40m SB this off season and another $40m roster bonus the following. With $30-35m annual guarantees kicking in then also.
 

tynimiller

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Jordan Love is currently angling towards a season of 4K+ yards and over 30 touchdowns. His second-half pace has, statistically, been MVP level. He is clearly the franchise QB that we all hoped he would be. All the people who threw a fit on draft day and trashed the pick/player for years need to learn from this.

Currently, Love is under contract for one more season-- 5.5M base salary with a 7.8M cap hit. They need to lock him up and they need to do it this off-season. So what would that contract look like?

The current market-setting deals belong to Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. They are all 5 year deals in the 260-275M total value range, meaning that they average 52-55M/season. Love's track record has not put him on that level yet, but that's the top of the market.

Coming off a decent 2022 season, Daniel Jones signed a deal for 4/160 (40M average) with 92M in total guarantees. That would be the absolute floor.

I think Love's deal will come in at a solid step up from Jones, while still being well below the top of the market.

My guess:

5 years, 212.5M (42.5M average), 140M in total guarantees

That deal would make Love the 10th highest paid QB per season in terms of current contracts. Obviously that ranking would go down over time as more guys sign contract. At his current trajectory, it would be quite a team-friendly deal.

Buddy asked me this morning what I'd go to and I said $45M a year given his second half play and where the market is...has to be more than Jones and under $50M/year IMO.

If I'm his agent I'm of course fighting for a 5 to be the per year average....and we may end up there - however I suspect it will only be inflated by perhaps a fifth year balloon year that is an out year.

If they're confident, and want to send a message do a longer than 5 year deal...Josh Allen got a 6 and Mahomes a 10.

If in house you feel this is the worst Jordan Love will ever be you easily justify a Daniel Jones type deal plus some. If you think this second half of this season is his worst you're in the $50M a year range....AND if they feel that is Love, then sign this kid to a 7-10 year deal and make it so.

That is a very atypical mindset for me personally...but damnit I love this kid. I LOVED my Packers and all their success in the Rodgers and Favre eras...but dangit both of those dudes character wise I struggled with having be my QB. Love is a Grade A human being from everything I've witnessed and even had conversations with people in close circles to him. I enjoy him being our QB and so far easily can tell my son to watch him closely on Sundays!
 

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5 years 200 with like 120 guarenteed.

You don't give him a set the market contract based on his limited sample size but he gets a Jones type deal (which I think is fair at this point) with a bit more in guarenteed money and an extra year.

Be surprised if he or his agent turn that down but it would definitely be betting on himself if he did
 

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5 years 200 with like 120 guarenteed.

You don't give him a set the market contract based on his limited sample size but he gets a Jones type deal (which I think is fair at this point) with a bit more in guarenteed money and an extra year.

Be surprised if he or his agent turn that down but it would definitely be betting on himself if he did
Sorry but nope. That is Daniel Jones level and nope. You better up the guarantee if you saying that to him.
 

RRyder

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Sorry but nope. That is Daniel Jones level and nope. You better up the guarantee if you saying that to him.
I am saying that to him. I've been a Love supporter from day one but that's the baseline. He's played well but further development isn't guarenteed and it's still just one season

Want Herbert/Burrow money? Bet on yourself and we can revisit it in a year

Play around with the years (I did up the guarantee) but 40-45 is about as high as you go this offseason. Which yes is Jones territory
 
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tynimiller

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I am saying that to him. I've been a Love supporter from day one but that's the baseline. He's played well but further development isn't guarenteed and it's still just one season

Want Herbert/Burrow money? Bet on yourself and we can revisit it in a year

Play around with the years (I did up the guarantee) but 40-45 is about as high as you go this offseason. Which yes is Jones territory
You said forty that is Jones. You have to get above it, or raise your minimum guarantee to a level it is gonna be bad if he fails or injury hits.

You gotta pay him right now over forty but below 50. Simple fact is second half of this season Jordan is closer if not at the 50….

I suspect if we see a deal this off season it will be in the 42.5-47.5 a year range, unless they go six or more years and it may be less but higher guarantee.
 

tynimiller

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Do they wait until after year 2 of starting?
none of these contracts are fulfilled by either side.

I don’t think Jordan’s camp will appreciate this approach…kid has all but went out there and won the MVP.

Only way I see that happen is if it was part of the discussion when they did the atypical extension instead of fifth year pick up.
 

RRyder

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You said forty that is Jones. You have to get above it, or raise your minimum guarantee to a level it is gonna be bad if he fails or injury hits.

You gotta pay him right now over forty but below 50. Simple fact is second half of this season Jordan is closer if not at the 50….

I suspect if we see a deal this off season it will be in the 42.5-47.5 a year range, unless they go six or more years and it may be less but higher guarantee.
I did up the guarenteed money and the years over the Jones contract so honestly I'm not sure what the hell you're arguing about when you think 42.5 is a possibility lol
 

tynimiller

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I did up the guarenteed money and the years over the Jones contract so honestly I'm not sure what the hell you're arguing about when you think 42.5 is a possibility lol

Because the average pay is crucial as indicated by so many deals and how they’re announced. Love’s agent I doubt would ever ever agree to a Jones level.
 
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I’d really like to see Jordan in a high pressure game, such as at Dallas. That will speak more to how he handles high profile games. If he passes that test?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get: 5X$230Mil extension ($46mil yearly) with a $175M area guaranteed.
Or
a real-time reworked
6yr X 250mil (175m guar) 70%
(2024-2029)
That’s $41.67 average after lifting his $23 next year. It’s a smidge heavy now, but it’ll be a deal by 2026-2027. It’s also the same as having a 1yr 5th option $23+ 5X$45.4mil yearly extension. Very fair
 

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Because the average pay is crucial as indicated by so many deals and how they’re announced. Love’s agent I doubt would ever ever agree to a Jones level.
Guarenteed money is far more important then the announced average salary. If his agent is dumb enough to believe otherwise then good for us.

As far as accepting a "Jones level deal" as you put it (or even that kind of a deal with more years and guarenteed cash) the option is for there him to bet on himself and we can revisit in a year and he can get that Burrow contract if he develops.

Which FYI fine raise it to 42.5. Still a Jones level deal but if you wanna think that will make the difference ok. Im not gonna be up in arms over 10 extra million in a year of the contract he'll never play under
 
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Jordan Love is currently angling towards a season of 4K+ yards and over 30 touchdowns. His second-half pace has, statistically, been MVP level. He is clearly the franchise QB that we all hoped he would be. All the people who threw a fit on draft day and trashed the pick/player for years need to learn from this.

Currently, Love is under contract for one more season-- 5.5M base salary with a 7.8M cap hit. They need to lock him up and they need to do it this off-season. So what would that contract look like?

The current market-setting deals belong to Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. They are all 5 year deals in the 260-275M total value range, meaning that they average 52-55M/season. Love's track record has not put him on that level yet, but that's the top of the market.

Coming off a decent 2022 season, Daniel Jones signed a deal for 4/160 (40M average) with 92M in total guarantees. That would be the absolute floor.

I think Love's deal will come in at a solid step up from Jones, while still being well below the top of the market.

My guess:

5 years, 212.5M (42.5M average), 140M in total guarantees

That deal would make Love the 10th highest paid QB per season in terms of current contracts. Obviously that ranking would go down over time as more guys sign contract. At his current trajectory, it would be quite a team-friendly deal.
I'd be very surprised if he got more than 50% of the contract in guarantees. Imo, in order for that to happen, he'd have to take less overall. It would be out of character for Russ Ball to cave like that.
 
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I'd be very surprised if he got more than 50% of the contract in guarantees. Imo, in order for that to happen, he'd have to take less overall. It would be out of character for Russ Ball to cave like that.
but looking across the league I counted 5 QB’s with 80%-100% fully guaranteed and ZERO QB’s making less than 55% guaranteed. I’m talking apples to apples second contracts or starting contracts over $10mil annual.

The mean.. without doing the math is about 75% guaranteed
 
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BrokenArrow

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I am saying that to him. I've been a Love supporter from day one but that's the baseline. He's played well but further development isn't guarenteed and it's still just one season

Want Herbert/Burrow money? Bet on yourself and we can revisit it in a year

Play around with the years (I did up the guarantee) but 40-45 is about as high as you go this offseason. Which yes is Jones territory
There's no way in hell he'll take Jones money. If you don't do better than that, you can either say goodbye after next season or expect to pay more than you would have. Neither of those options sound good to me.
 
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Today he’d get in that $40-50mil annual range depending on other factors such as guaranteed.
I’d peg Love at ~$45mil average/~70% guar/length of contract ~4-5 yrs. He’s a good kid I think he’d sign there. Aaron showed what forcing league high gets you.
A paycut and a new home. Be fair in with your employer in negotiations and you stay much longer and I expressed that sentiment BEFORE the Aaron Rodgers league high.
 
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but looking across the league I counted 5 QB’s with 80%-100% fully guaranteed and ZERO QB’s making less than 55% guaranteed. I’m talking apples to apples second contracts or starting contracts over $10mil annual.

The mean.. without doing the math is about 75% guaranteed
Russ Ball has always been an outlier and agents know it. I'll be surprised if guarantees are over 50% for Love. For other Packer players, guaranteed money for 2nd contracts and free agents falls between 25 and 33%.
 
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Dantés

Dantés

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I'd be very surprised if he got more than 50% of the contract in guarantees. Imo, in order for that to happen, he'd have to take less overall. It would be out of character for Russ Ball to cave like that.

My guess is that they will treat this one differently because of the position. The bar is much higher for QB's. We've seen 100% guaranteed contracts.
 

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My guess is that they will treat this one differently because of the position. The bar is much higher for QB's. We've seen 100% guaranteed contracts.
I could see and understand 50%...... reluctantly...... Love has a very short resume.
 

tynimiller

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Guys Aaron Rodgers illustrates guarantee for QBs is just different even in GB.

His last extension with us was for 3 years $150M.....$150,815,000 total guaranteed....$101M guaranteed at signing.

Here are a lot of the QBs not on rookie deals folks will recognize....

You must be logged in to see this image or video!
 

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I’d really like to see Jordan in a high pressure game, such as at Dallas. That will speak more to how he handles high profile games. If he passes that test?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get: 5X$230Mil extension ($46mil yearly) with a $175M area guaranteed.
Or
a real-time reworked
6yr X 250mil (175m guar) 70%
(2024-2029)
That’s $41.67 average after lifting his $23 next year. It’s a smidge heavy now, but it’ll be a deal by 2026-2027. It’s also the same as having a 1yr 5th option $23+ 5X$45.4mil yearly extension. Very fair

If they beat the Bears on Sunday, we’ll get to see that high pressure game. Nothing has higher stakes than playoffs, and wildcard weekend is a pressure cooker!

(I love wildcard weekend. So much fun as a football fan)
 

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Buddy asked me this morning what I'd go to and I said $45M a year given his second half play and where the market is...has to be more than Jones and under $50M/year IMO.

If I'm his agent I'm of course fighting for a 5 to be the per year average....and we may end up there - however I suspect it will only be inflated by perhaps a fifth year balloon year that is an out year.

If they're confident, and want to send a message do a longer than 5 year deal...Josh Allen got a 6 and Mahomes a 10.

If in house you feel this is the worst Jordan Love will ever be you easily justify a Daniel Jones type deal plus some. If you think this second half of this season is his worst you're in the $50M a year range....AND if they feel that is Love, then sign this kid to a 7-10 year deal and make it so.

That is a very atypical mindset for me personally...but damnit I love this kid. I LOVED my Packers and all their success in the Rodgers and Favre eras...but dangit both of those dudes character wise I struggled with having be my QB. Love is a Grade A human being from everything I've witnessed and even had conversations with people in close circles to him. I enjoy him being our QB and so far easily can tell my son to watch him closely on Sundays!
Guys in the NFL get paid for production and character has little to do with their $. By all accounts so far, Love is a high character guy that makes you want to root for him. In a lot of cases, however, success can lead to a prima dona syndrome. I'm not saying it will happen to Love but it's easier to be charming and humble when you are still working your way up. Is he a flash in the pan and not worth the big bucks? I doubt it because his game is multi-dimentional. He appears to see the field well and has a quick enough release while he combines that with enough athleticism to move around the pocket. I don't see him as a one trick pony so if I were Gute, I'd be talking extension with his agent.
 

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Love has proven to be a top 25% NFL QB already and still ascending. When extended, IMHO, his average needs to be at least $50mil/yr. Doubt his agent would agree to anything less unless it's a 2 or 3 yr @ $45mil/yr fully guaranteed deal allowing Love to set the market (top deal of $60+mil/yr) in '26 or '27.
 

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I'll pump the brakes a bit. The sophomore slump is a real thing. Love may be immune since he's technically not a freshman this year. Then you've got situations like Jalen Hurts, who looked phenomenal last year and then struggled in the second half of 2023.

Love looks like the guy, but we should all realize that we are basing contract talks on only one season of tape. Anything can happen.
 
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