Projecting Jordan Love in 2024

Dantés

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In 2023, Jordan Love played all 17 games and finished:

372/579, 64.2% completion, 4159 yards, 7.2 YPA, 32 TD (5.5%), 11 INT (1.9%)

However, all Packers fans know that it was really the tale of two halves for him. In the first 9 games, Love was:

176/300, 58.7%, 2009 yards, 6.7 YPA, 14 TD (4.7%), 10 INT (3.3%)

Over a 17 game sample, this extrapolates to: 333/567, 58.7%, 3799 yards, 6.7 YPA, 27 TD, 19 INT (a passer rating of 81)

But if you look at the final 9 games (including the wildcard game because it evens the sample):

212/300, 70.7%, 2422 yards, 8.1 YPA, 21 TD (7.0%), 1 INT (0.3%)

Over a 17 game sample, this extrapolates to: 401/567, 70.7%, 4593 yards, 8.1 YPA, 40 TD, 2 INT (a passer rating of 117!)

So given the sharp difference in performance level over the first half rather than the back half, what would a reasonable projection look like in 2024? Some might say just split the difference-- for example, project a 64.7% completion and a 7.4 YPA because that's the middle point between the two halves. However, I don't think that makes sense.

It is most reasonable to project that the Love we saw in games 10-18 is much closer to the player he will be moving forward than the Love we saw in games 1-9. During that early stage of the season, he was figuring out how to be successful and he was finding his way with a young, inexperienced supporting cast. Now he takes all that experience into year 2 as the starter and the supporting cast has grown and is growing with him. It doesn't make sense to expect him to revert back towards that early-season version of himself, especially given that the tape would not indicate in any way that his progress was the result of smoke and mirrors.

That said, there are still some aspects of the latter sample that aren't sustainable (e.g. a 0.3% INT rate). So while I think the projection should lean more heavily towards the final 9 games than the first 9 games, I don't think you can just extrapolate them and call it good. So here is what I've come up with for 2024:

382/560, 68.2% completion, 4424 yards, 7.9 YPA, 34 TD (6.0%), 8 INT (1.5%)

This comes out to a 106 Passer Rating, so it's obviously very optimistic. But I know what I saw last year and it's logical to expect that Love's supporting cast will take a big collective step forward. I tried to be conservative in my projection last season and it was widely panned as too optimistic and it ended up being too pessimistic in the end. The bottom line for me is this: when I look at Love's age, his progress in 2023, what he put on tape, who his coaches are, and the supporting cast he's working with, I see no reason why he won't end 2024 considered to be one of the truly elite QB's in the NFL.
 
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Good stuff.
I also think Love will have a hard time matching those last 9 games. He was on fire! I do see him in that
65.5% completion
4,350 yards
31 TD
11 INT
7.6 per
102.1 % Passer
(Around 2010 Rodgers efficiency)

Some factors

We’re still relatively Green. Imo I see the vast majority of employees as a “Rook” until about 3 years of live experience. Regardless of what the league labels them. That goes across all Job spectrums

-Elevated Schedule

-Increased Expectations

-League familiarity (opposing DC studying him) with Love’s tendencies
(Good or Bad)


I’m happy to be proven wrong and there are exceptions. There is no substitute for raw experience
 
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mradtke66

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I honestly still don't exactly know how to read him. He played better that I hoped in 2023, but I have no idea on his likely ceiling. I'm tempted to say he'll end up solidly around his year end totals/averages.

My concerns still focus on him forcing things or throwing off platform when the down and distance or other factors don't require it.
 

Pkrjones

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So here is what I've come up with for 2024:

382/560, 68.2% completion, 4424 yards, 7.9 YPA, 34 TD (6.0%), 8 INT (1.5%)

This comes out to a 106 Passer Rating, so it's obviously very optimistic... The bottom line for me is this: when I look at Love's age, his progress in 2023, what he put on tape, who his coaches are, and the supporting cast he's working with, I see no reason why he won't end 2024 considered to be one of the truly elite QB's in the NFL.
There are only 2 things that may keep Love from putting up those numbers or better.
1. An injury sidelining Love for more than a game or 2.
2. The offense is such a juggernaut that the run game takes over in Q4 to burn clock & salt away the W.

Great analysis & projection, I won't bust your nuts THIS year for your optimism. ;)
 
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There are only 2 things that may keep Love from putting up those numbers or better.
1. An injury sidelining Love for more than a game or 2.
2. The offense is such a juggernaut that the run game takes over in Q4 to burn clock & salt away the W.

Great analysis & projection, I won't bust your nuts THIS year for your optimism. ;)
One of the factors that might increase my guess over 65% area reception rate could be our group. We have 2 second year TE’s and either are capable of a production spike in year 2. Less trying to follow a Rookie script and more anticipating just making a play. I suspect 1 of Kraft/Musgrave exceed 500 yards receiving. That = more intermediate to short passes or Redzone usage.

In addition we have 3 capable Receivers in the RB room. One thing I heard is that Jacobs asked about being involved in the passing game more if coming to GB. He said he felt he was minimized in LV as a pass catcher according to his ability. I was amazing that Josh has ZERO TD’s receptions in his NFL career! Jacobs catch per is 0.2 yards off off Aaron Jones career but Jones has 18TD receiving to Josh ZERO! Thats an appalling stat to me for someone so proficient as a receiver. That MUST change. I suspect GB heard him loud and clear = Increased short targets in passing game.

In addition Marshawn Lloyd AND
AJ Dillon are both formidable options as RB2/RB3 in the Pass. This is a very good RB room we’ve got both Run/Pass. All 3 RB options offer both confidence and competence as receivers. Also all 3 RB’s are dangerous with the ball in space = more short high probability throws.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jordan finish ~70% rec rate because of who’s who at WR/TE/RB as a whole.

PS. Josh Jacobs/Marshawn Lloyd averaged 12.5 yards per catch (7TD total) in their limited 3 seasons of usage as backfield receiving options in College. These are guys who should each be purposefully challenged in the short Passing game imo. Id like to see Matt design some plays to challenge them.
 
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AmishMafia

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Couple of thoughts to add:

Loss of Aaron Jones really hurt the offensive production as the run game took a big hit.

Offensive line as a whole, played poorly the first 1/2 of the season. Only Tom looked good. Walker took some time to get comfortable. Runyan was the least effective. Myer was often pushed around and even Jenkins looked poor (probably because of being amid two players not playing well. By the 2nd half of the season, they started playing much better.

Receivers were having issues. Every game there were a few head scratcher routes. There was no way MLF drew them up like that. Later in the season, I saw very few wrong routes as the entire receiver group seemed to be on the same page with Love.

Tight Ends were both rookies. Outside of QB, TE is the toughest position to learn. Having to learn all the routes like a WR and the blocking scheme like an OL, you cant expect to get much from a rookie in both run and receiving games.

So, at the start of this season, I feel we have - upgraded OL with no regressions and only improvement from experience and new talent added
- upgraded RB talent. Jones and Jacoby is about a wash with Jacoby being less injury prone. The addition of Lloyd gives us dangerous depth.
- receivers have that much more experience and we have so much depth. Saw analysis claiming Packers didn't have a true no. 1 receiver and therefore it was an issue. Watson, Wicks, Reed, and Doubs all look like they could step into that role. And I would rather have four #1.5s than a #1, a #2, and several #3s. No team has the depth at DB to cover that much talent.


On the downside, DCs now have more tape to look at and come up with plans to stop Love.


But I am on the optimistic side and thing the final 9 games will be more on par with production going forward.
 

Thirteen Below

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- receivers have that much more experience and we have so much depth. Saw analysis claiming Packers didn't have a true no. 1 receiver and therefore it was an issue. Watson, Wicks, Reed, and Doubs all look like they could step into that role. And I would rather have four #1.5s than a #1, a #2, and several #3s. No team has the depth at DB to cover that much talent.
This is why I argue that we probably have the best WR corps in the NFL. We may not have a Davante Adams or Justin Jefferson, but neither do we have the drop off between our top 1 or 2 WRs and our 3rd, 4th, and 5th.

It's like that "Greatest Show on Turf" crap that drove us crazy 20 years ago, where the Rams just picked us apart - remember the Rams' fans taunting us, "who you gonna cover"? You pick one of our guys to double up, Love can just go down the list and throw to someone else, with a high probability of completion. Especially if Watson is healthy.

On the downside, DCs now have more tape to look at and come up with plans to stop Love.
But Matt Lafleur, Jason Vrable, and Sean Mannion have had a whole off-season to cook up new schemes for how to take Love and the Kids to a whole nother level. I'd say the advantage is ours in that chess game, at least against most of the teams in the NFL.
 

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This is why I argue that we probably have the best WR corps in the NFL. We may not have a Davante Adams or Justin Jefferson, but neither do we have the drop off between our top 1 or 2 WRs and our 3rd, 4th, and 5th.

It's like that "Greatest Show on Turf" crap that drove us crazy 20 years ago, where the Rams just picked us apart - remember the Rams' fans taunting us, "who you gonna cover"? You pick one of our guys to double up, Love can just go down the list and throw to someone else, with a high probability of completion. Especially if Watson is healthy.


But Matt Lafleur, Jason Vrable, and Sean Mannion have had a whole off-season to cook up new schemes for how to take Love and the Kids to a whole nother level. I'd say the advantage is ours in that chess game, at least against most of the teams in the NFL.
So we can expect the return of the Fab-5 moniker from a decade+ back? Lawd it'd be fun to watch a SWAC offensive output for the whole season.
 

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Couple of thoughts to add:

Loss of Aaron Jones really hurt the offensive production as the run game took a big hit.

Offensive line as a whole, played poorly the first 1/2 of the season. Only Tom looked good. Walker took some time to get comfortable. Runyan was the least effective. Myer was often pushed around and even Jenkins looked poor (probably because of being amid two players not playing well. By the 2nd half of the season, they started playing much better.

Receivers were having issues. Every game there were a few head scratcher routes. There was no way MLF drew them up like that. Later in the season, I saw very few wrong routes as the entire receiver group seemed to be on the same page with Love.

Tight Ends were both rookies. Outside of QB, TE is the toughest position to learn. Having to learn all the routes like a WR and the blocking scheme like an OL, you cant expect to get much from a rookie in both run and receiving games.

So, at the start of this season, I feel we have - upgraded OL with no regressions and only improvement from experience and new talent added
- upgraded RB talent. Jones and Jacoby is about a wash with Jacoby being less injury prone. The addition of Lloyd gives us dangerous depth.
- receivers have that much more experience and we have so much depth. Saw analysis claiming Packers didn't have a true no. 1 receiver and therefore it was an issue. Watson, Wicks, Reed, and Doubs all look like they could step into that role. And I would rather have four #1.5s than a #1, a #2, and several #3s. No team has the depth at DB to cover that much talent.


On the downside, DCs now have more tape to look at and come up with plans to stop Love.


But I am on the optimistic side and thing the final 9 games will be more on par with production going forward.

I rarely disagree with you Amish, but I gotta disagree with the run game statement. Josh Jacobs is every bit of a running back Jones was when it comes to production - is he slightly less of a homerun guy....maybe but truly the dude is at minimum same level at this stage in each's career as the other. However even on that one Jacobs had had nearly as impressive 10+ and 15+ numbers over most years with last year being a down year against his norm.

Factor in the addition of a very capable back in Lloyd from USC, I think at WORST one has to say our run game is equivalent, but truly easily argued got better.
 

Thirteen Below

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In addition we have 3 capable Receivers in the RB room. One thing I heard is that Jacobs asked about being involved in the passing game more if coming to GB. He said he felt he was minimized in LV as a pass catcher according to his ability. I was amazing that Josh has ZERO TD’s receptions in his NFL career! Jacobs catch per is 0.2 yards off off Aaron Jones career but Jones has 18TD receiving to Josh ZERO! Thats an appalling stat to me for someone so proficient as a receiver. That MUST change. I suspect GB heard him loud and clear = Increased short targets in passing game.
I think Lafleur is lying awake at night fantasizing about some of the pass plays he can design around Jacobs. This was one of the very first things the two of them discussed when they spoke on the phone the first time. Jacobs was terribly misused in Vegas; there was just no excuse for completely wasting a red zone weapon like Jacobs in that way.

The night we signed him, I spent over an hour watching video of him catching footballs, and I don't think i saw him make a single mistake or bad decision. He has soft, sure hands, perfect body control, great peripheral vision, and almost flawless technique. He looks the ball all the way into his hands, and doesn't turn downfield (or even look downfield) until he has the ball secured - but the instant the ball is tucked in and he looks downfield, he knows exactly where he's going to go, and he accelerates instantly. Doesn't waste a single half-second or half-step collecting himself or thinking "OK, now what do I do?". He already knows, and just takes off.

This guy is going to score a lot of touchdowns.

PS. Josh Jacobs/Marshawn Lloyd averaged 12.5 yards per catch (7TD total) in their limited 3 seasons of usage as backfield receiving options in College. These are guys who should each be purposefully challenged in the short Passing game imo. Id like to see Matt design some plays to challenge them.
Lloyd appears to be one of the top receiving backs in this class (if not the top), and I don't think that's a coincidence. I think we'll be throwing a lot of footballs to our running backs; DCs are just not going know where it's coming from next.
 

AmishMafia

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I rarely disagree with you Amish, but I gotta disagree with the run game statement. Josh Jacobs is every bit of a running back Jones was when it comes to production - is he slightly less of a homerun guy....maybe but truly the dude is at minimum same level at this stage in each's career as the other. However even on that one Jacobs had had nearly as impressive 10+ and 15+ numbers over most years with last year being a down year against his norm.

Factor in the addition of a very capable back in Lloyd from USC, I think at WORST one has to say our run game is equivalent, but truly easily argued got better.
I agree. I just wasn't very clear on what I was saying. That statement was for 2023. When we lost Jones, and little threat of a run game, our offense was less effective.

I believe Love's numbers will be elite this year and that was an example of one area we improved. Jacobs has been elite but not as impressive last season. Getting some breaks from Lloyd may help him this season. I'm looking forward to a very effective run game this season.
 

tynimiller

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I agree. I just wasn't very clear on what I was saying. That statement was for 2023. When we lost Jones, and little threat of a run game, our offense was less effective.

I believe Love's numbers will be elite this year and that was an example of one area we improved. Jacobs has been elite but not as impressive last season. Getting some breaks from Lloyd may help him this season. I'm looking forward to a very effective run game this season.

Gotcha - same page
 

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