A Modestly Successful Jordan Love Season

Voyageur

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I love the optimism on the rookie TEs! I'm more doubtful that the packers will have one of the most succesful rookie TE drafts in NFL history though. Especially with a young QB starting his first season.


On the positive side (at least for the passing game), Joe Barry is still the DC so I have zero faith that the defense will be great and therefore the Packers should be throwing the ball quite a bit.
I'm hopeful they can add something to the offense, and prove they can block. It's a necessity that we have that out of them, to give Love the safety outlets he's going to need. Lord only knows he used those short passes more than anything else, when he was in games. It's going to have to be there, until he becomes comfortable with the job, and he and his receivers know they're on the same page when it comes to those timing routes, where the ball is out of his hands, before the receiver even makes a cut.
 

Schultz

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That’s not what I said. I said I expected 1 of those 2 to be a riser. you can never guess with injuries etc. However our staff will press one or the other and it’s rarely even. I think Kraft would be most likely (just my guess is all) As I posted elsewhere he’s a fast starter. See his college production. No wonder why he was a multiple All American FCS and MVP twice. He exploded in his first legitimate time on the field as a Redshirt Sophomore. It’s my opinion that would’ve happened as a Freshman (and Junior) had both seasons not been shortened by Covid and injury.

Normally 1 TE gets more attention. It’s rare they’d get even playing time or targets.
Actually, it is what I said. I am the one who posted it. You gave your opinion, I quoted it, then I gave my opinion.
 

tynimiller

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I’m not too worried and expect collectively Deguara/Musgrave/Kraft will produce collectively more production than we got last year and possibly last three or so years.

What I don’t expect though is any one of them to be the massive majority of the production and actually if any of them do it will be Josiah.
 

Pkrjones

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I’m not too worried and expect collectively Deguara/Musgrave/Kraft will produce collectively more production than we got last year and possibly last three or so years.

What I don’t expect though is any one of them to be the massive majority of the production and actually if any of them do it will be Josiah.
I agree completely. I think MLF will put all 3 (or 4 if Davis shows during preseason?) in position to excel. If someone consistently produces they'll command more snaps in December & January.
 
D

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Again, I know you’re doing your best to be ultra conservative and that’s fine. However that tempering comes from our past experience and this season is anything but a “normal” season for our TE room or for the Packers Offense in general.
1. New QB
2. New WR1
and you can fully expect a
3. New TE1

Don't get me wrong, I fully expect both Musgrave and Kraft to put up better numbers than Finley did in his rookie season. But I don't believe they will come anywhere close to what some fans have suggested either.

In my opinion the passing offense will struggle because of having a first-year starting quarterback and inexperienced pass catchers all over the place. They will have to rely on the running game to get things going.

Donald Lee was going into his 6th Season (4th with the Packers) with Brett Favre now in NY. However if you go back and look at the tail end of 2007, Lee signed a 4X12Mil contract (probably like $25M area today). Lee also had a strong finish in the passing game in 2007. In the late 3rd Quarter of 2007 Lee had his first multi scoring contest (2 TD) and contributed in Favres breaking Dan Marion’s career passing record. Btw Mason Kicked 4 FG in that game ;) I just knew you wanted to know that.:D
We have to go back in time and set our barometers for those specific conditions to understand the Packers mindset going into 2008. Lee finished the 2007 campaign strong, with a very good 48 rec/575 yards/6TDs. The Packers had just made their decision and financially committed to Donald Lee as TE1.

I'm sorry, but I don't understand what Donald Lee playing in his sixth season in the NFL in 2008 has to do with the expectations for Musgrave and Kraft entering this season. As a side note, Lee only caught 39 passes for 303 yards in 2008 with a first-year starting quarterback.

Rodgers had more entrenched starters in 2008 and broke 4,000+.
I don’t think 3,600 is unreasonable at all. I could see 3,400;3600;3800 yards without too much imagination

My other guess is that Watson passes Lazard’s 2022 WR1 production by going over 800+
Romeo surpasses/matches Watson 2022 WR2 production by attaining 650+
TE1 tinker with 400+ (near Tonyan)

Reed matched Cobbs area within reason ~400 yards

Jones and Dillon repeat 500-600 area yards etc. etc.

Who are we worried about attaining? Sammy Watkins 206 yards? We didn’t even have a WR break 800 yards last season.

I'm worried about that it's unrealistic to expect everything you suggested to happen considering the Packers feature a group of pass catchers who all lack experience.

Don't think it's unreasonable for Love to be better in 2023 than: Stroud, Richardson/Minshew, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett/Trubisky, Will Levis/Tannehill, Des Ridder, Bryce Young, Purdy/Lance, Mayfield/Trask, Howell/Brissett. That's 10, and playing within MLF's "system" could surpass the success of: Fields, Daniel Jones, Garoppolo, a recovering Murray, the '22 Wilson, or a semi-injured Stafford. That's 6 more possibles.

I may be over-estimating Love's ability/maturity, but you may be under-estimating just as well.

It's not unrealistic for Love to be better than any of the quarterbacks you mentioned. But I don't think he will put up better numbers than all of them though.

That’s not what I said. I said I expected 1 of those 2 to be a riser. you can never guess with injuries etc. However our staff will press one or the other and it’s rarely even. I think Kraft would be most likely (just my guess is all) As I posted elsewhere he’s a fast starter. See his college production. No wonder why he was a multiple All American FCS and MVP twice. He exploded in his first legitimate time on the field as a Redshirt Sophomore. It’s my opinion that would’ve happened as a Freshman (and Junior) had both seasons not been shortened by Covid and injury.

Kraft had only seven receptions for 90 yards in seven games in the spring of 2021 playing against FCS competition. While COVID-19 might have had an impact on his production that doesn't result in me having a ton of confidence he will have an immediate impact in the NFL.

Finley wasn't nearly as good as some people would like to believe. He blew routes, either couldn't, or wouldn't block, at an NFL level. He just wasn't physical enough. The only thing that made him acceptable is the fact they had nobody else to throw to at the position. In fact, the Packers gave up on him. They just didn't want to admit they blew the pick.

People like to remember particular games where he had huge stats, but forget all those where he was a no-show. Even players that were on the team with him felt he failed to deliver on the promise.

In my opinion you're being way too harsh in evaluating Finley. While he never put up elite numbers compared to other tight ends he definitely had good stats for most of his career.
 

Voyageur

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Don't get me wrong, I fully expect both Musgrave and Kraft to put up better numbers than Finley did in his rookie season. But I don't believe they will come anywhere close to what some fans have suggested either.

In my opinion the passing offense will struggle because of having a first-year starting quarterback and inexperienced pass catchers all over the place. They will have to rely on the running game to get things going.



I'm sorry, but I don't understand what Donald Lee playing in his sixth season in the NFL in 2008 has to do with the expectations for Musgrave and Kraft entering this season. As a side note, Lee only caught 39 passes for 303 yards in 2008 with a first-year starting quarterback.



I'm worried about that it's unrealistic to expect everything you suggested to happen considering the Packers feature a group of pass catchers who all lack experience.



It's not unrealistic for Love to be better than any of the quarterbacks you mentioned. But I don't think he will put up better numbers than all of them though.



Kraft had only seven receptions for 90 yards in seven games in the spring of 2021 playing against FCS competition. While COVID-19 might have had an impact on his production that doesn't result in me having a ton of confidence he will have an immediate impact in the NFL.



In my opinion you're being way too harsh in evaluating Finley. While he never put up elite numbers compared to other tight ends he definitely had good stats for most of his career.
If you totally ignore the fact that he blew routes, and missed blocks regularly, I suppose you could make that case. But, I prefer the history of what I saw, and heard, from people around the game, when he was playing.

You might want to take a bit of time to look back at the discussions on his play through the eyes of people who actually evaluated it, while he was playing. You also might be able to find how he fared in the route tree matrix, if you have that source. You'll find he pretty much sucked. The word, around the NFL, when he signed that two-year extension was that the Packers made a $15 million dollar mistake.
 
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On the positive side (at least for the passing game), Joe Barry is still the DC so I have zero faith that the defense will be great and therefore the Packers should be throwing the ball quite a bit.
Not if we can’t stop the Run game. We might not see the ball very much. ;)
 
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I'm sorry, but I don't understand what Donald Lee playing in his sixth season in the NFL in 2008 has to do with the expectations for Musgrave and Kraft entering this season. As a side note, Lee only caught 39 passes for 303 yards in 2008 with a first-year starting quarterback.
Possibly Because you don’t want to understand? The fact remains, GB had a TE1 coming into 2008 who put up more yards and TD’s in 2007 Than any other Packer TE. Far More than any TE from 2022 for that matter. If you think a #91 overall drafted TE who had forgone both his Junior and Senior seasons was going to get a shot at TE1 snaps, you’re kidding yourself.
That is NOT the case in 2023. There is no bonafide TE1 from 2022 on the level of 2007 Donald Lee. Therefore it’s a wide open competition at TE in 2023.
I'm worried about that it's unrealistic to expect everything you suggested to happen considering the Packers feature a group of pass catchers who all lack experience.
What did I project that has you worried?? I appreciate you relying on my every word in projecting young athletes so much that it stresses you out. It’s a compliment. You know most people just dismiss me altogether..
I’ll leave you with this to hopefully help you understand why I root for these kids. They are real people. This one happened to lose his Father as a young teenager (like myself) I’m ALWAYS going to support Kraft and Love in any way I can.

TURN IT UP!!
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Kraft had only seven receptions for 90 yards in seven games in the spring of 2021 playing against FCS competition. While COVID-19 might have had an impact on his production that doesn't result in me having a ton of confidence he will have an immediate impact in the NFL.

You’re confusing that. You’re 2021 stat line (7rec) was actually 2020 (they pushed the 2020 season into Spring 2021 due to Covid) S.C. State didn't even play a full season. In the 2020 season Kraft was a Redshirt Frosh’ That’s a really weird way to attempt to diminish a Pro NFL athlete, by picking on Freshman players in College who didn’t even play in most games of a shortened season.
 
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tynimiller

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Add one more to the list.....I've already attempted to get with the people that help make things happen then when Reed scores that first TD....they gotta throw up a image of his dad for him in the stadium.

Give that kid and his dad that moment. Kraft is the same exact way.

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Add one more to the list.....I've already attempted to get with the people that help make things happen then when Reed scores that first TD....they gotta throw up a image of his dad for him in the stadium.

Give that kid and his dad that moment. Kraft is the same exact way.

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We heard it said what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. My Mom always said.. God prunes those that are his and if he’s not pruning us (giving us life obstacles) that’s when you better be worried. The bigger the obstacle the bigger the Faith.

We’ve got several Players that have been through big time obstacles at a young age. I actually consider that a positive “X factor” because they’ve already been in big pressure moments and overcome. That’s something I think Love possesses, but I understand it’s not quantifiable or on paper.
 
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D

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If you totally ignore the fact that he blew routes, and missed blocks regularly, I suppose you could make that case. But, I prefer the history of what I saw, and heard, from people around the game, when he was playing.

You might want to take a bit of time to look back at the discussions on his play through the eyes of people who actually evaluated it, while he was playing. You also might be able to find how he fared in the route tree matrix, if you have that source. You'll find he pretty much sucked. The word, around the NFL, when he signed that two-year extension was that the Packers made a $15 million dollar mistake.

Don't get me wrong, I don't believe Finley tapped his full potential over his NFL career but I definitely don't agree with you that he was a terrible player.

As a side note, he still holds the franchise record for most receptions by a tight end in a season with 61.

Possibly Because you don’t want to understand? The fact remains, GB had a TE1 coming into 2008 who put up more yards and TD’s in 2007 Than any other Packer TE. Far More than any TE from 2022 for that matter. If you think a #91 overall drafted TE who had forgone both his Junior and Senior seasons was going to get a shot at TE1 snaps, you’re kidding yourself.
That is NOT the case in 2023. There is no bonafide TE1 from 2022 on the level of 2007 Donald Lee. Therefore it’s a wide open competition at TE in 2023.

I wouldn't call Donald Lee a bonafide tight end by any means. I truly believe that if Finley was ready to take over a more prominent role Lee being on the roster wouldn't have been an obstacle. But as with most tight ends it took him some time to make an impact. I fully expect that to happen with Musgrave and Kraft as well.

What did I project that has you worried?? I appreciate you relying on my every word in projecting young athletes so much that it stresses you out. It’s a compliment. You know most people just dismiss me altogether..
I’ll leave you with this to hopefully help you understand why I root for these kids. They are real people. This one happened to lose his Father as a young teenager (like myself) I’m ALWAYS going to support Kraft and Love in any way I can.

I'm definitely rooting for all of the Packers young players as well. I don't expect all of them to improve on the numbers some others put up last season though.

You’re confusing that. You’re 2021 stat line (7rec) was actually 2020 (they pushed the 2020 season into Spring 2021 due to Covid) S.C. State didn't even play a full season. In the 2020 season Kraft was a Redshirt Frosh’ That’s a really weird way to attempt to diminish a Pro NFL athlete, by picking on Freshman players in College who didn’t even play in most games of a shortened season.

While you're right the 2020 season was played in the spring of 2021 South Dakota State played a 10-game schedule with Kraft playing in seven of those games catching only seven balls. Therefore it's a fact that Kraft hardly had any impact in his first college "season".
 
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I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

Projection: 337/510, 66%, 3774 yards, 7.4 YPA, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TD

Reality: 372/579, 64%, 4159 yards, 7.2 YPA, 32 TD, 11 INT; 50 rush 247 yards, 4.9 YPC, 4 TD

On the whole, I had Love accounting for 4121 total yards, 31 total TD's, and 10 INT's.

In reality, he accounted for 4406 total yards, 36 total TD's, and 11 INT's.
 

tynimiller

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Projection: 337/510, 66%, 3774 yards, 7.4 YPA, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TD

Reality: 372/579, 64%, 4159 yards, 7.2 YPA, 32 TD, 11 INT; 50 rush 247 yards, 4.9 YPC, 4 TD

On the whole, I had Love accounting for 4121 total yards, 31 total TD's, and 10 INT's.

In reality, he accounted for 4406 total yards, 36 total TD's, and 11 INT's.

Post #16 you actually went down lower a touch.

Either way Love was awesome!
 

thequick12

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Projection: 337/510, 66%, 3774 yards, 7.4 YPA, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TD

Reality: 372/579, 64%, 4159 yards, 7.2 YPA, 32 TD, 11 INT; 50 rush 247 yards, 4.9 YPC, 4 TD

On the whole, I had Love accounting for 4121 total yards, 31 total TD's, and 10 INT's.

In reality, he accounted for 4406 total yards, 36 total TD's, and 11 INT's.

But what did you vote, fhof good, pro bowl good etc?

Pretty dmn close on those stats for sure
 

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Most folks on this forum that that Love would struggle to have a good completion percentage. He did pretty good in spite of the fact that many WRs were running the wrong routes and dropping balls at the beginning of the season.
 

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