A Modestly Successful Jordan Love Season

[Deleted member 6794]

Both can catch contested balls also. At that rate you can almost jump ball it and let them play basketball. Either draw a flag etc. we just aren’t used to a couple of athletic options at TE getting significant early playing time.

Tucker has been actually pretty good catching contested balls, Musgrave not so much.

Luke is as agile as they come and has great hands (1 drop) and surprisingly near-elite snatching ability

According to PFF Musgrave had a total of nine drops on 56 catchable balls in college for a drop percentage of 16.1%. That's actually pretty bad.

 

[OldSchool101]

Tucker has been actually pretty good catching contested balls, Musgrave not so much.



According to PFF Musgrave had a total of nine drops on 56 catchable balls in college for a drop percentage of 16.1%. That's actually pretty bad.

It is bad. However that’s a very small sample size when factoring across multiple seasons, what was his high rec? 22? Three other seasons he didn’t even get 20 targets. Throw the ball at me 10 times and I might drop 2 and catch 7
That’s 20%. But I’m still 70%.
Now was he 16% drop rate and a 45% catch rate? That’s a problem.

Vrable and others understand how to diagnose drops and their causes. Christian Watson was another one people harped on drop rate. We had him straightened out pretty quick, so I trust Vrable to get these guys right. Especially guys that are 6’6” and are 95% RAS in 10-yard splits, he’s a Ninja. Now there’s a % you can’t teach

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It is bad. However that’s a very small sample size when factoring across multiple seasons, what was his high rec? 22? Three other seasons he didn’t even get 20 targets. Throw the ball at me 10 times and I might drop 2 and catch 7
That’s 20%. But I’m still 70%.
Now was he 16% drop rate and a 45% catch rate? That’s a problem.

Vrable and others understand how to diagnose drops and their causes. Christian Watson was another one people harped on drop rate. We had him straightened out pretty quick, so I trust Vrable to get these guys right. Especially guys that are 6’6” and are 95% RAS in 10-yard splits, he’s a Ninja. Now there’s a % you can’t teach

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting Musgrave won't be able to improve on his drop rate in college but he needs to to be successful in the NFL. There have been players who have been able to achieve that while it never worked out for others.

Another thing that might work in his favor is that his average depth of target of 12.5 yards in college was actually pretty high for a tight end. He might be able to catch more passes when being targeted on shorter routes as well.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I expect Jordan Love to have a really up-and-down season but anyone counting on the TEs picked this year to help him substantially is ignoring the vast and storied history of rookie TEs not accomplishing squat in the NFL. I am really excited about Musgrave's potential three seasons from now but the guy is rawer (would it be rarer in this context?) at running routes than Watson was coming out of college so I'm not expecting him to be a great pressure valve for Love this season as he learns how to actually run routes. Kraft will most likely have the better rookie season, he's a player that doesn't really have many weaknesses and will (hopefully) make tough catches, though he'll likely only be a real threat in the short-to-intermediate range.

So, unless Green Bay has the best TE draft in NFL history, counting on both of these guys to make a substantial impact this season doesn't account for how difficult the transition from college to the NFL is for TE's. I'll be shocked if Kraft has more than 40 receptions and 400 yards while Musgrave, as raw as he is right now, will probably have substantially fewer receptions but slightly more yards.

 

[Schultz]

I will set the o/u for TE receiving yards this season at 786.5!

 

[Voyageur]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

I've dug deep on this one. If he did put up those numbers, I'd feel like we had a QB who could easily become as good, if not better, than any QB Green Bay has ever had.

First off, I think reaching 3,000 yards would be a very successful year. I don't see him throwing the ball nearly as much. I think that number will be more in the low 400 attempts range, not over 500. Touchdowns vs INTs? I don't think it's off too much on TDs, but I think we're going to see more like 15-20 INTs. At 15, I'd still be ecstatic.

As far as his running the ball, I have a hunch that LeFleur is going to drill it into his head to get rid of the ball, not run with it himself. There doesn't promise to be too much there, as a back up, if he goes down. Without him, we could be looking at a top 3 draft. As far as the totals you've shown, that would put him in a league with Mahomes on rushing, and until he proves it, I don't believe it.

But, I don't think your figures are wrong, if Love lives up to the expectations the Packers seem to have put in him. I just don't totally agree with them.

As far as team success, I see us as being a 7 game winner. Anything more than that will be a bonus. Less than that, I can also accept, because I have no high expectations.

In all honesty, this could be the year that we finally end up finishing in last place in our little stronghold, beaten out by the Bears, Vikings, and Lions. But, I won't be upset if it happens. It was coming when they played games with the end of the Rodgers era in GB.

 

[Pkrjones]

I will set the o/u for TE receiving yards this season at 786.5!

A bit lower than all Packer TE's in '20.
A bit higher than in '21.
A hundred higher than '22.
Excellent O/U, I'll take the over (800+ yds.)

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I will set the o/u for TE receiving yards this season at 786.5!

Under...rookie TEs are normally disappointing let alone with a young QB in his first season as the starter.

 

[tynimiller]

Under...rookie TEs are normally disappointing let alone with a young QB in his first season as the starter.

Usually but I will be honest MLF in Josiah Deguaras rookie year clearly was going to involve him a lot in the offense. I still to this day believe Josiah was heading towards a 450 yard 4 TD and 40 reception type season minimum.

 

[OldSchool101]

I expect Jordan Love to have a really up-and-down season but anyone counting on the TEs picked this year to help him substantially is ignoring the vast and storied history of rookie TEs not accomplishing squat in the NFL. I am really excited about Musgrave's potential three seasons from now but the guy is rawer (would it be rarer in this context?) at running routes than Watson was coming out of college so I'm not expecting him to be a great pressure valve for Love this season as he learns how to actually run routes. Kraft will most likely have the better rookie season, he's a player that doesn't really have many weaknesses and will (hopefully) make tough catches, though he'll likely only be a real threat in the short-to-intermediate range.

So, unless Green Bay has the best TE draft in NFL history, counting on both of these guys to make a substantial impact this season doesn't account for how difficult the transition from college to the NFL is for TE's. I'll be shocked if Kraft has more than 40 receptions and 400 yards while Musgrave, as raw as he is right now, will probably have substantially fewer receptions but slightly more yards.

I think two things that us Packer fans are not accustomed to are
1. Using a #42 overall on a highly athletic, Pass catching TE. The last time we drafted an equal or higher rated Receiving TE was 2000 Bubba Franks. Jermichael Finley was the only other true Pass catching TE drafted in the top #91 in the last 30+ seasons. Finley production soared in his Sophomore season

2. Drafting 2 TE’s from the top 5 consensus rated TE’s and who can both contribute in the Passing game.

Add to that our pass catching TE1 and TE3 are both gone and that in itself leaves a huge TE void. Now admittedly J. Deguara would be the natural fit at TE1 temporarily. However I believe that pecking order could change by as early as mid season. I say that partly because Josiah will need to fill the role of a blocking TE to keep Jordan upright. If we truly value TE blocking, he’s the most natural fit to replace Lewis’ role temporarily.

We will have some temporary growing pains with a new QB, but we also really have nothing to lose in getting one or both of our Rookie TE’s involved in the passing game early on. There is a sizable void in Receiving production with Lazard, Cobb and Tonyan gone. The TE group needs to be a significant part of filling that void

 

[milani]

I think two things that us Packer fans are not accustomed to are
1. Using a #42 overall on a highly athletic, Pass catching TE. The last time we drafted an equal or higher rated Receiving TE was 2000 Bubba Franks. Jermichael Finley was the only other true Pass catching TE drafted in the top #91 in the last 30+ seasons. Finley production soared in his Sophomore season

2. Drafting 2 TE’s from the top 5 consensus rated TE’s and who can both contribute in the Passing game.

Add to that our pass catching TE1 and TE3 are both gone and that in itself leaves a huge TE void. Now admittedly J. Deguara would be the natural fit at TE1 temporarily. However I believe that pecking order could change by as early as mid season. I say that partly because Josiah will need to fill the role of a blocking TE to keep Jordan upright. If we truly value TE blocking, he’s the most natural fit to replace Lewis’ role temporarily.

We will have some temporary growing pains with a new QB, but we also really have nothing to lose in getting one or both of our Rookie TE’s involved in the passing game early on. There is a sizable void in Receiving production with Lazard, Cobb and Tonyan gone. The TE group needs to be a significant part of filling that void

Yes, the TE group will be a part of the offense by default. So they will see opportunities and since there is no storied Jimmy Graham or Big Dog there the competition may force them to step up. Also it is true that Finley lit the lamp in year 2. I thought the guy was a clutz in his rookie year. And as good as Bubba became Brett Favre even said after a loss to the Bears in his rookie season that he would be great someday but right now he is still learning.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I will set the o/u for TE receiving yards this season at 786.5!

It seems to me that a lot of fans completely overestimate the production by tight ends around the league. There were only four teams in the league last season which received more than 1,000 yards from their tight ends with the league average at 824. With that being said I don't expect the Packers to have an even average group this season, therefore I'm going with the under.

I think two things that us Packer fans are not accustomed to are
1. Using a #42 overall on a highly athletic, Pass catching TE. The last time we drafted an equal or higher rated Receiving TE was 2000 Bubba Franks. Jermichael Finley was the only other true Pass catching TE drafted in the top #91 in the last 30+ seasons. Finley production soared in his Sophomore season

It's true that Finley's production soared in his second season in the league but he had only six receptions for 74 yards and a TD in his rookie campaign. That's what we need to look at when talking about the expectations for Musgrave and Kraft.

 

[OldSchool101]

It's true that Finley's production soared in his second season in the league but he had only six receptions for 74 yards and a TD in his rookie campaign. That's what we need to look at when talking about the expectations for Musgrave and Kraft.

Again, I know you’re doing your best to be ultra conservative and that’s fine. However that tempering comes from our past experience and this season is anything but a “normal” season for our TE room or for the Packers Offense in general.
1. New QB
2. New WR1
and you can fully expect a
3. New TE1
Donald Lee was going into his 6th Season (4th with the Packers) with Brett Favre now in NY. However if you go back and look at the tail end of 2007, Lee signed a 4X12Mil contract (probably like $25M area today). Lee also had a strong finish in the passing game in 2007. In the late 3rd Quarter of 2007 Lee had his first multi scoring contest (2 TD) and contributed in Favres breaking Dan Marion’s career passing record. Btw Mason Kicked 4 FG in that game I just knew you wanted to know that.
We have to go back in time and set our barometers for those specific conditions to understand the Packers mindset going into 2008. Lee finished the 2007 campaign strong, with a very good 48 rec/575 yards/6TDs. The Packers had just made their decision and financially committed to Donald Lee as TE1.

Jermichael Finley by comparison also went draft eligible after his Sophomore College campaign and would forego both his Junior and Senior college seasons by entering the NFL draft quite prematurely imo.

Now after seeing that history, Let’s fast forward to 2023 in comparison, Josiah Deguara is coming off a 13 rec/114 yards/0TD campaign. Josiah should get a few more looks than 2022, but I fully expect us to test our major draft collateral #42/#78. Our current state of affairs is not 2008 Rookie, Jermichael Finley production.

 

[Pkrjones]

Using roughly '22's numbers for receiving, a modest estimate of 3,600 yds. (with Love being in the top-half of starting QB's), here's what I think a reasonable 2023 receiving breakdown could be using the actual 2022's total number of targets & yards as a guide.
RB1 - 72 Targets, 395 yds.
RB2- 43 Targets, 206 yds.
WR1 - 110 Targets, 900 yds.
WR2 - 90 Targets, 650 yds.
WR3 - 70 Targets, 450 yds.
WR4 - 40 Targets, 280 yds.
TE1 - 55 Targets, 395 yds.
TE2 - 40 Targets, 280 yds.
TE3 - 20 Targets, 140 yds.
Total: 540 Targets, 3,696 yds.

RB's = 115 Targets, 601 yds.
WR's = 310 Targets, 2,280 yds.
TE's = 115 Targets, 815 yds. (I took the "Over" in @Schultz 's above post)

 

[SudsMcBucky]

Using roughly '22's numbers for receiving, a modest estimate of 3,600 yds. (with Love being in the top-half of starting QB's), here's what I think a reasonable 2023 receiving breakdown could be using the actual 2022's total number of targets & yards as a guide.
RB1 - 72 Targets, 395 yds.
RB2- 43 Targets, 206 yds.
WR1 - 110 Targets, 900 yds.
WR2 - 90 Targets, 650 yds.
WR3 - 70 Targets, 450 yds.
WR4 - 40 Targets, 280 yds.
TE1 - 55 Targets, 395 yds.
TE2 - 40 Targets, 280 yds.
TE3 - 20 Targets, 140 yds.
Total: 540 Targets, 3,696 yds.

RB's = 115 Targets, 601 yds.
WR's = 310 Targets, 2,280 yds.
TE's = 115 Targets, 815 yds. (I took the "Over" in @Schultz 's above post)

Except why would we project Love, at this moment in time, to be a top-half starting QB in 2023? I don't see it.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’d say @Schultz is close on TE overall over/under. Although I do think 1 TE gets into that 400-450 area or more. There always seems to be 1 that catches a wind at their back.
My best guess is Kraft, he’s the most dynamic when we look at production. He put up 65/780 as a Redshirt Sophomore. He catches on fast (pun intended)

 

[OldSchool101]

Except why would we project Love, at this moment in time, to be a top-half starting QB in 2023? I don't see it.

Rodgers had more entrenched starters in 2008 and broke 4,000+.
I don’t think 3,600 is unreasonable at all. I could see 3,400;3600;3800 yards without too much imagination

My other guess is that Watson passes Lazard’s 2022 WR1 production by going over 800+
Romeo surpasses/matches Watson 2022 WR2 production by attaining 650+
TE1 tinker with 400+ (near Tonyan)

Reed matched Cobbs area within reason ~400 yards

Jones and Dillon repeat 500-600 area yards etc. etc.

Who are we worried about attaining? Sammy Watkins 206 yards? We didn’t even have a WR break 800 yards last season.

 

[Schultz]

Using roughly '22's numbers for receiving, a modest estimate of 3,600 yds. (with Love being in the top-half of starting QB's), here's what I think a reasonable 2023 receiving breakdown could be using the actual 2022's total number of targets & yards as a guide.
RB1 - 72 Targets, 395 yds.
RB2- 43 Targets, 206 yds.
WR1 - 110 Targets, 900 yds.
WR2 - 90 Targets, 650 yds.
WR3 - 70 Targets, 450 yds.
WR4 - 40 Targets, 280 yds.
TE1 - 55 Targets, 395 yds.
TE2 - 40 Targets, 280 yds.
TE3 - 20 Targets, 140 yds.
Total: 540 Targets, 3,696 yds.

RB's = 115 Targets, 601 yds.
WR's = 310 Targets, 2,280 yds.
TE's = 115 Targets, 815 yds. (I took the "Over" in @Schultz 's above post)

IMO for GB to call that many passing plays means they will be playing from behind in most games. Based on that, I hope you are wrong.

 

[Pkrjones]

Except why would we project Love, at this moment in time, to be a top-half starting QB in 2023? I don't see it.

Don't think it's unreasonable for Love to be better in 2023 than: Stroud, Richardson/Minshew, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett/Trubisky, Will Levis/Tannehill, Des Ridder, Bryce Young, Purdy/Lance, Mayfield/Trask, Howell/Brissett. That's 10, and playing within MLF's "system" could surpass the success of: Fields, Daniel Jones, Garoppolo, a recovering Murray, the '22 Wilson, or a semi-injured Stafford. That's 6 more possibles.

I may be over-estimating Love's ability/maturity, but you may be under-estimating just as well.

 

[Mondio]

it's a tough call. He's 3 years in, so he's not your typical 1st year rookie starter. But he's also a 1st year starter in the NFL. He's seen some things, but there is so much he hasn't experienced yet and until it's live fire, we can't know.

all I know is he can throw the ball pretty dang well. I'm hoping it's mostly to our guys He's seems cool and collect, but until he gets knocked around I can't know how easy it is to rattle him.

I am excited to find out

 

[Schultz]

I’d say @Schultz is close on TE overall over/under. Although I do think 1 TE gets into that 400-450 area or more. There always seems to be 1 that catches a wind at their back.
My best guess is Kraft, he’s the most dynamic when we look at production. He put up 65/780 as a Redshirt Sophomore. He catches on fast (pun intended)

1. Expecting both of these guys to overachieve compared to normal rookie TE production IMO is wishful thinking, which isn't a bad thing.
2. IMO both of them are going to get plenty of snaps and targets, but that in and of itself IMO will make it more challenging for either one to have a big time year.

 

[OldSchool101]

Don't think it's unreasonable for Love to be better in 2023 than: Stroud, Richardson/Minshew, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett/Trubisky, Will Levis/Tannehill, Des Ridder, Bryce Young, Purdy/Lance, Mayfield/Trask, Howell/Brissett. That's 10, and playing within MLF's "system" could surpass the success of: Fields, Daniel Jones, Garoppolo, a recovering Murray, the '22 Wilson, or a semi-injured Stafford. That's 6 more possibles.

I may be over-estimating Love's ability/maturity, but you may be under-estimating just as well.

I’d put Jordan’s floor at 3,100 yards and a ceiling at 4,100 yards imo. I think that’s a very realistic range. 85% chance he falls somewhere in there.

 

[OldSchool101]

1. Expecting both of these guys to overachieve compared to normal rookie TE production IMO is wishful thinking, which isn't a bad thing.
2. IMO both of them are going to get plenty of snaps and targets, but that in and of itself IMO will make it more challenging for either one to have a big time year.

That’s not what I said. I said I expected 1 of those 2 to be a riser. you can never guess with injuries etc. However our staff will press one or the other and it’s rarely even. I think Kraft would be most likely (just my guess is all) As I posted elsewhere he’s a fast starter. See his college production. No wonder why he was a multiple All American FCS and MVP twice. He exploded in his first legitimate time on the field as a Redshirt Sophomore. It’s my opinion that would’ve happened as a Freshman (and Junior) had both seasons not been shortened by Covid and injury.

Normally 1 TE gets more attention. It’s rare they’d get even playing time or targets.

 

[Voyageur]

Finley wasn't nearly as good as some people would like to believe. He blew routes, either couldn't, or wouldn't block, at an NFL level. He just wasn't physical enough. The only thing that made him acceptable is the fact they had nobody else to throw to at the position. In fact, the Packers gave up on him. They just didn't want to admit they blew the pick.

People like to remember particular games where he had huge stats, but forget all those where he was a no-show. Even players that were on the team with him felt he failed to deliver on the promise.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I love the optimism on the rookie TEs! I'm more doubtful that the packers will have one of the most succesful rookie TE drafts in NFL history though. Especially with a young QB starting his first season.


On the positive side (at least for the passing game), Joe Barry is still the DC so I have zero faith that the defense will be great and therefore the Packers should be throwing the ball quite a bit.