Roster Statuses looking into 2024

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tynimiller

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And see for a colorblind person that struggles with telling the difference between colors that approach sucks for me LOL
 

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And see for a colorblind person that struggles with telling the difference between colors that approach sucks for me LOL
Wow, hard to believe something like this would merit a "you beat me to it" response, but you beat me to it. :)
 

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Here's how I like to visualize it.

Blue: Above replacement level players under team control (sliding scale depending on whether they're starters or backups)
Green: Above replacement level players entering a contract year
Red: Replacement level players or below
Orange: Cut candidates
Purple: ERFA's
Gray: Players of unknown quality

Quarterback: J. Love, S. Clifford

Running Back: A. Jones, P. Taylor

Tight End: L. Musgrave, T. Kraft, B. Sims

Wide Receiver: C. Watson, J. Reed, D. Wicks, R. Doubs, B. Melton, M. Heath, S. Toure

Tackle: D. Bakhtiari, R. Walker, Z. Tom, L. Tenuta, C. Jones

Guard: E. Jenkins, S. Rhyan, R. Newman

Center: J. Myers

Defensive Line: K. Clark, D. Wyatt, T. Slaton, K. Brooks, C. Wooden

Edge: P. Smith, R. Gary, L. Van Ness, K. Enagbare, B. Cox

Linebacker: Q. Walker, D. Campbell, I. McDuffie

Cornerback:
J. Alexander, C. Valentine, E. Stokes

Safety: A. Johnson Jr.

Special Teams: A. Carlson, D. Whelan, M. Orzech


That's 42 overall players, but only ~36-37 that I'm confident I want back. I suspect that most/all of the cut candidates will be back, with the most likely release/retire guy being Bakhtiari.

It will be an interesting off-season. The Packers have 11 draft selections, but even if every pick they make is roster-worthy, I think they will need 5-6 more players. My guess is one splashy move and then filling in the gaps with more modest re-signings or UFA deals.

For the community of people here who can see color, the above is why I say what I do about the Packers needs being feast/famine.

Assuming that most guys in orange come back, you're basically set as is at QB, TE, WR, DL, and ED.

You have serious holes to fill at RB, OL, LB, CB, and SAF.

The thing I'm most curious about is how the team assesses the OL.

There's a world where all they want is depth. Jenkins and Tom are entrenched starters, Walker has come on so strong that it's doubtful you could improve upon him with a rookie, the team seems very supportive of Myers despite some struggles, and Rhyan might claim Runyan's job moving forward. In that scenario, you just need backups (though you need them basically across the board).

But there's also a world where they want a lot more than that. Perhaps they aren't as enamored with the progress of Walker or Rhyan or both. Maybe their vocal support of Myers belies an internal view that he needs to go. In that scenario, you need competition/replacements for three starting roles.

I tend to lean more towards the first view than the second. I want quality depth at tackle, legit competition for Rhyan at guard, and an heir apparent for Myers at center. Three picks on OL in the top 4 rounds wouldn't phase me a bit.
 

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For the community of people here who can see color, the above is why I say what I do about the Packers needs being feast/famine.

Assuming that most guys in orange come back, you're basically set as is at QB, TE, WR, DL, and ED.

You have serious holes to fill at RB, OL, LB, CB, and SAF.

The thing I'm most curious about is how the team assesses the OL.

There's a world where all they want is depth. Jenkins and Tom are entrenched starters, Walker has come on so strong that it's doubtful you could improve upon him with a rookie, the team seems very supportive of Myers despite some struggles, and Rhyan might claim Runyan's job moving forward. In that scenario, you just need backups (though you need them basically across the board).

But there's also a world where they want a lot more than that. Perhaps they aren't as enamored with the progress of Walker or Rhyan or both. Maybe their vocal support of Myers belies an internal view that he needs to go. In that scenario, you need competition/replacements for three starting roles.

I tend to lean more towards the first view than the second. I want quality depth at tackle, legit competition for Rhyan at guard, and an heir apparent for Myers at center. Three picks on OL in the top 4 rounds wouldn't phase me a bit.
That would be quite the reversal of last year.
 

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Can you elaborate?
I can. Last off season we believed we were set at CB, RB, LB and were OK with OL. The needs were TE, WR, DL, with ? at QB and Edge but not big needs. This year is mostly the opposite with S appearing both years.

I want to hear the story behind your signature:
"Why are you the way that you are? Honestly, every time I try to do something fun or exciting, you make it not that way. I hate... so much... about the things you choose to be."
 

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I can. Last off season we believed we were set at CB, RB, LB and were OK with OL. The needs were TE, WR, DL, with ? at QB and Edge but not big needs. This year is mostly the opposite with S appearing both years.

I want to hear the story behind your signature:
"Why are you the way that you are? Honestly, every time I try to do something fun or exciting, you make it not that way. I hate... so much... about the things you choose to be."
Are you and Dantes married?
 
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tynimiller

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I do not think they drafted any OL last year was my point.

Correct....and it was the first time we didn't draft ANY offensive line help since when???

Give you clue while we didn't draft a OL, we did draft a guy that here for his blocking assistance in the run game....
 
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tynimiller

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I'll even go deeper cuz I have a spreadsheet.....before the above answer it was over a decade prior to that we didn't draft any OL position in a draft...what year?

So essentially what were the last two years prior to 2023 where Green Bay did not select a OL at all? *the one year I gave a clue however in that we did draft a position guy for his blocking help he would provide however.
 

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If Love is the franchise qb, then prioritizing OL in the draft should be higher. Given that Love isn't a running qb, I feel more comfortable extending him sooner than later since his longevity is aided by moving around the pocket rather than taking off and running. While the sample size is still limited, I don't think a huge sophomore slump is likely since he has the ability to handle pressure. Gute should prioritize OL, safety, RB, ILB and OLB in the draft while continuing to add some WR help. You can never have too many pass catchers.
 
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tynimiller

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If Love is the franchise qb, then prioritizing OL in the draft should be higher. Given that Love isn't a running qb, I feel more comfortable extending him sooner than later since his longevity is aided by moving around the pocket rather than taking off and running. While the sample size is still limited, I don't think a huge sophomore slump is likely since he has the ability to handle pressure. Gute should prioritize OL, safety, RB, ILB and OLB in the draft while continuing to add some WR help. You can never have too many pass catchers.

See now I think the next component people are going to learn is Love can move and do it very well...but we haven't needed him to.

Truthfully it's hard to argue with the fact the easiest or biggest or area of most improvement that exists to make the offense better is a better OL. That's the #1 to help Love right now...and maybe add a later round HBack to replace Josiah on rookie contract. I think Rasheed Walker has possibly won a case for Gute to look to iOL or a RT prospect first...allow Tom to slide in to RG which NO one deserves that has played it this year arguably. Late (6th at earliest) round flyers or UDFA is all I want to see in WR room if anything...
 

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There are a bunch of factors that have me wondering about the RB position:

1) There's a huge need on the roster; if you keep Jones (which I think they will), he's it.

2) Jones is probably entering his last season.

3) Nearly all draftniks agree that the position in this year's draft is pretty bad.

4) The Packers were interested in trading for and paying Jonathan Taylor.

5) The deflation of RB contracts makes me wonder if, at a point, they become a value add for a team that's willing to zig. McCaffrey is the tippety top of the market and he got 4/64/30 (16M AAV). Taylor is the most recent big deal and he got 3/42/20 (14M AAV). Last off-season, Miles Sanders (whose FA profile was VERY similar to Swift's) got 4/25/11 (6.4M AAV).

All of the above has me thinking about D'Andre Swift.

He's a UFA this off-season and there are some bigger names out there that could push him down the market a bit (Barkley, Pollard, Jacobs).

He just turned 25 three days ago, so even a four year deal would only pay him into his age 28 season.

He only has about 600 career carries on his body.

He has a well-rounded skill-set and explosive athletic ability that the team really misses when Jones is out.

He finished last season with a 54.1% rush success per Pro Football Reference. A successful rush is defined as gaining 40% of the yards to gain on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. 54.1% ranked 6th among all backs (behind Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery).

If they could get Swift for, say, 4/34/14... I would do that. You could structure it so that it's easy to get out of the last year if he's eroded. That's a low price point at which to add an explosive playmaker to the offense. Plus, I'm sure he would be excited to play the Lions twice every season.
 

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There are a bunch of factors that have me wondering about the RB position:

1) There's a huge need on the roster; if you keep Jones (which I think they will), he's it.

2) Jones is probably entering his last season.

3) Nearly all draftniks agree that the position in this year's draft is pretty bad.

4) The Packers were interested in trading for and paying Jonathan Taylor.

5) The deflation of RB contracts makes me wonder if, at a point, they become a value add for a team that's willing to zig. McCaffrey is the tippety top of the market and he got 4/64/30 (16M AAV). Taylor is the most recent big deal and he got 3/42/20 (14M AAV). Last off-season, Miles Sanders (whose FA profile was VERY similar to Swift's) got 4/25/11 (6.4M AAV).

All of the above has me thinking about D'Andre Swift.

He's a UFA this off-season and there are some bigger names out there that could push him down the market a bit (Barkley, Pollard, Jacobs).

He just turned 25 three days ago, so even a four year deal would only pay him into his age 28 season.

He only has about 600 career carries on his body.

He has a well-rounded skill-set and explosive athletic ability that the team really misses when Jones is out.

He finished last season with a 54.1% rush success per Pro Football Reference. A successful rush is defined as gaining 40% of the yards to gain on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. 54.1% ranked 6th among all backs (behind Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery).

If they could get Swift for, say, 4/34/14... I would do that. You could structure it so that it's easy to get out of the last year if he's eroded. That's a low price point at which to add an explosive playmaker to the offense. Plus, I'm sure he would be excited to play the Lions twice every season.
Great analysis. Email it to Gutekunst please.
 
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tynimiller

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There are a bunch of factors that have me wondering about the RB position:

1) There's a huge need on the roster; if you keep Jones (which I think they will), he's it.

2) Jones is probably entering his last season.

3) Nearly all draftniks agree that the position in this year's draft is pretty bad.

4) The Packers were interested in trading for and paying Jonathan Taylor.

5) The deflation of RB contracts makes me wonder if, at a point, they become a value add for a team that's willing to zig. McCaffrey is the tippety top of the market and he got 4/64/30 (16M AAV). Taylor is the most recent big deal and he got 3/42/20 (14M AAV). Last off-season, Miles Sanders (whose FA profile was VERY similar to Swift's) got 4/25/11 (6.4M AAV).

All of the above has me thinking about D'Andre Swift.

He's a UFA this off-season and there are some bigger names out there that could push him down the market a bit (Barkley, Pollard, Jacobs).

He just turned 25 three days ago, so even a four year deal would only pay him into his age 28 season.

He only has about 600 career carries on his body.

He has a well-rounded skill-set and explosive athletic ability that the team really misses when Jones is out.

He finished last season with a 54.1% rush success per Pro Football Reference. A successful rush is defined as gaining 40% of the yards to gain on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. 54.1% ranked 6th among all backs (behind Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery).

If they could get Swift for, say, 4/34/14... I would do that. You could structure it so that it's easy to get out of the last year if he's eroded. That's a low price point at which to add an explosive playmaker to the offense. Plus, I'm sure he would be excited to play the Lions twice every season.

I don't disagree AT ALL for the record with this, but if I'm spending money on a FA RB I'd go cheaper almost and say just resign Dillon for cheaper - but draft a guy you like as well...I mean even if you add Swift the are still highly likely to draft someone anyways too.

FWIIW Spotrac says Swift is worth about $5.5M a year and Dillon $3.5M a year
 

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There are a bunch of factors that have me wondering about the RB position:

1) There's a huge need on the roster; if you keep Jones (which I think they will), he's it.

2) Jones is probably entering his last season.

3) Nearly all draftniks agree that the position in this year's draft is pretty bad.

4) The Packers were interested in trading for and paying Jonathan Taylor.

5) The deflation of RB contracts makes me wonder if, at a point, they become a value add for a team that's willing to zig. McCaffrey is the tippety top of the market and he got 4/64/30 (16M AAV). Taylor is the most recent big deal and he got 3/42/20 (14M AAV). Last off-season, Miles Sanders (whose FA profile was VERY similar to Swift's) got 4/25/11 (6.4M AAV).

All of the above has me thinking about D'Andre Swift.

He's a UFA this off-season and there are some bigger names out there that could push him down the market a bit (Barkley, Pollard, Jacobs).

He just turned 25 three days ago, so even a four year deal would only pay him into his age 28 season.

He only has about 600 career carries on his body.

He has a well-rounded skill-set and explosive athletic ability that the team really misses when Jones is out.

He finished last season with a 54.1% rush success per Pro Football Reference. A successful rush is defined as gaining 40% of the yards to gain on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. 54.1% ranked 6th among all backs (behind Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery).

If they could get Swift for, say, 4/34/14... I would do that. You could structure it so that it's easy to get out of the last year if he's eroded. That's a low price point at which to add an explosive playmaker to the offense. Plus, I'm sure he would be excited to play the Lions twice every season.
Swift is very intriguing but how much of his success is due to the Lions having such a good O line? Hard to know but it might be a good idea to draft a RB and sign somebody like Swift to a moderately priced contract. By the way, Swift is an awesome name for a running back!
 

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Swift is very intriguing but how much of his success is due to the Lions having such a good O line? Hard to know but it might be a good idea to draft a RB and sign somebody like Swift to a moderately priced contract. By the way, Swift is an awesome name for a running back!

Swift has definitely played behind some good offensive lines in DET and PHI and that does need to be considered. However, I think it's telling that, in those contexts, he still out-produced the rest of the backfield.

In 2022, he ran for 5.5 YPC with the Lions. Jamaal Williams was at 4.1 and Justin Jackson at 4.0. This season, Montgomery is at 4.6 and Gibbs at 5.2.

In 2023, he's run for 4.6 YPC with the Eagles. Gainwell and Scott are both at 4.3.

The point being that if it was mostly just the blocking that created the production, you'd expect to see other backs replicating his success.
 

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I don't disagree AT ALL for the record with this, but if I'm spending money on a FA RB I'd go cheaper almost and say just resign Dillon for cheaper - but draft a guy you like as well...I mean even if you add Swift the are still highly likely to draft someone anyways too.

FWIIW Spotrac says Swift is worth about $5.5M a year and Dillon $3.5M a year

The only way that spending real money on a FA running back makes sense to me is if they're a differentiator like Jones (not necessarily to his level, but in the sense of being able to create yards that other backs can't). Dillon is the exact type of guy I would never want them to pay because what he does is so easily replicable.
 
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tynimiller

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The only way that spending real money on a FA running back makes sense to me is if they're a differentiator like Jones (not necessarily to his level, but in the sense of being able to create yards that other backs can't). Dillon is the exact type of guy I would never want them to pay because what he does is so easily replicable.

I don't necessarily disagree...and I've said only way I'm signing Dillon back is for more a FB role or RB3 type role.
 

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Swift has definitely played behind some good offensive lines in DET and PHI and that does need to be considered. However, I think it's telling that, in those contexts, he still out-produced the rest of the backfield.

In 2022, he ran for 5.5 YPC with the Lions. Jamaal Williams was at 4.1 and Justin Jackson at 4.0. This season, Montgomery is at 4.6 and Gibbs at 5.2.

In 2023, he's run for 4.6 YPC with the Eagles. Gainwell and Scott are both at 4.3.

The point being that if it was mostly just the blocking that created the production, you'd expect to see other backs replicating his success.
That's a strong argument. I've always liked Swift, now I like him even more. Seeing him in green and gold wouldn't hurt my feelings any.
 

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Love the Swift talk. If they drafted a RB late and wanted to bring in a cheaper FA I kinda like Antonio Gibson. On the real cheap IMO guys worth a flyer are Damien Harris, C.E.H. and D'Ernest Johnson .
 

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There are a bunch of factors that have me wondering about the RB position:

1) There's a huge need on the roster; if you keep Jones (which I think they will), he's it.

2) Jones is probably entering his last season.

3) Nearly all draftniks agree that the position in this year's draft is pretty bad.

4) The Packers were interested in trading for and paying Jonathan Taylor.

5) The deflation of RB contracts makes me wonder if, at a point, they become a value add for a team that's willing to zig. McCaffrey is the tippety top of the market and he got 4/64/30 (16M AAV). Taylor is the most recent big deal and he got 3/42/20 (14M AAV). Last off-season, Miles Sanders (whose FA profile was VERY similar to Swift's) got 4/25/11 (6.4M AAV).

All of the above has me thinking about D'Andre Swift.

He's a UFA this off-season and there are some bigger names out there that could push him down the market a bit (Barkley, Pollard, Jacobs).

He just turned 25 three days ago, so even a four year deal would only pay him into his age 28 season.

He only has about 600 career carries on his body.

He has a well-rounded skill-set and explosive athletic ability that the team really misses when Jones is out.

He finished last season with a 54.1% rush success per Pro Football Reference. A successful rush is defined as gaining 40% of the yards to gain on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. 54.1% ranked 6th among all backs (behind Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery).

If they could get Swift for, say, 4/34/14... I would do that. You could structure it so that it's easy to get out of the last year if he's eroded. That's a low price point at which to add an explosive playmaker to the offense. Plus, I'm sure he would be excited to play the Lions twice every season.

I wanted to flesh out this comparison between Swift and Miles Sanders.

Last year, when Sanders hit FA, here was his profile:

-25 years old
-5'10", 211, running 4.49 out of PSU
-Drafted 53rd overall
-4 seasons; 57 games played
-739 career carries; 5.0 career YPC
-124 career receptions; 7.6 career YPR
-9 career fumbles
-Rush Success Rates of 44.7, 54.9, 59.1, 56.8

Here is Swift's profile:

-25 years old
-5'9", 212#, running 4.48 out of UGA
-Drafted 35th overall
-4 seasons; 56 games played
-593 career carries; 4.6 career YPC
-195 career receptions; 7.2 career YPR
- 9 career fumbles
-Rush Success Rates of 54.4, 36.4, 47.5, 54.1

It would be really difficult to find two FA profiles more similar than that.

Sanders' Contract: 4 years, 25.4M, 11M gtd at signing, 13M in total guarantees

The cap is expected to go up ~7.5% for next season, so let's adjust Sanders' deal up 10%.

Projected Swift Contract: 4 years, 28M, 12M gtd at signing, 14.5M in total guarantees

Basically a 2 year deal that becomes a team option situation in 2026 and 2027 and averages 7M in annual value.

Now when I say that I think it could be smart for a team to zig on RB value, this is what I mean. Here is what ~7M in AAV will get you at other positions on the open market:

QB:
Taylor Heinicke

TE: Josh Oliver

WR: Cedrick Wilson

OL: Trey Pipkins, Connor Williams, Connor McGovern

Think about what D'Andre Swift can add to an offense vs these other players-- a backup QB, a 40% snap count blocking TE, a 22/296/3 WR, and replacement level OL (other than Williams who ended up being a bargain for MIA).
 
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tynimiller

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I wanted to flesh out this comparison between Swift and Miles Sanders.

Last year, when Sanders hit FA, here was his profile:

-25 years old
-5'10", 211, running 4.49 out of PSU
-Drafted 53rd overall
-4 seasons; 57 games played
-739 career carries; 5.0 career YPC
-124 career receptions; 7.6 career YPR
-9 career fumbles
-Rush Success Rates of 44.7, 54.9, 59.1, 56.8

Here is Swift's profile:

-25 years old
-5'9", 212#, running 4.48 out of UGA
-Drafted 35th overall
-4 seasons; 56 games played
-593 career carries; 4.6 career YPC
-195 career receptions; 7.2 career YPR
- 9 career fumbles
-Rush Success Rates of 54.4, 36.4, 47.5, 54.1

It would be really difficult to find two FA profiles more similar than that.

Sanders' Contract: 4 years, 25.4M, 11M gtd at signing, 13M in total guarantees

The cap is expected to go up ~7.5% for next season, so let's adjust Sanders' deal up 10%.

Projected Swift Contract: 4 years, 28M, 12M gtd at signing, 14.5M in total guarantees

Basically a 2 year deal that becomes a team option situation in 2026 and 2027 and averages 7M in annual value.

Now when I say that I think it could be smart for a team to zig on RB value, this is what I mean. Here is what ~7M in AAV will get you at other positions on the open market:

QB: Taylor Heinicke

TE: Josh Oliver

WR: Cedrick Wilson

OL: Trey Pipkins, Connor Williams, Connor McGovern

Think about what D'Andre Swift can add to an offense vs these other players-- a backup QB, a 40% snap count blocking TE, a 22/296/3 WR, and replacement level OL (other than Williams who ended up being a bargain for MIA).

I agree likely contract for Swift figure wise....

I brought him and this signing up with a buddy and he shot back what would be better for us - sign him or with that be able to sign back Melton / Savage / Owens and maybe Tyler Davis? or swap Savage with Nixon.

It was a tougher thought exercise than I guess I initially felt it would be. I tend to think Swift in a vacuum would make the team better, but dang that void at Safety/DB room is strong.
 

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