A Modestly Successful Jordan Love Season

[Dantés]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

I would be totally delighted if Love put up numbers like that in his first season as a starter. With that being said I highly doubt he comes anywhere close to it. He doesn't need to to possibly show enough promise to make me feel confident in him.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Those numbers seem Tua/Lawrence-esque and what Rodgers did (minus the run).

Just based on numbers, I'd be happy with those numbers and would roll forward with him barring some extenuating circumstance (like 1/3 of his yards are coming in garbage time and he is mediocre when it counts)

 

[Schultz]

I would give Gute a raise and an extention if Love hit those numbers.

 

[Pkrjones]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

Don't fault the reasoning behind these numbers, but that stat line is actually BETTER than AR put up in '22.

IMHO, I think: 63%, YPA of 7.0 (Carr, D. Jones, T. Lawrence rate). 4.4% TD, 2.4% INT. Can't argue about rushing #'s.
Result: 315/500, 3500 yds, 22 TD's, 12 INT's; 77 rush, 347 yds., 5 TD's.

That would be approx. Daniel Jones production in Love's 1st year starting, which got Jones a shiny new 4yr/$160Mil contract.

Upon further review, AR's numbers in '22 place him #11 in total yards, #19 yds/gm, #7 TD's, #10 in attempts, #10 completions and#21 in completion %. Your Results would put Love as a top-3rd tier QB, which I don't think is out of the question at all. My numbers would put him top-half and I fully expect him to be better than 1/2 of the starters in the NFL this year.

 

[PikeBadger]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

My first reaction to this scenario is that if this happens, there is a 50/50 chance of us being in the NFC Championship game. I'd be delirious if your scenario played out because I'm expecting more along the lines of 28 passes per game and more field position type games.

 

[Dantés]

Don't fault the reasoning behind these numbers, but that stat line is actually BETTER than AR put up in '22.

IMHO, I think: 63%, YPA of 7.0 (Carr, D. Jones, T. Lawrence rate). 4.4% TD, 2.4% INT. Can't argue about rushing #'s.
Result: 315/500, 3500 yds, 22 TD's, 12 INT's; 77 rush, 347 yds., 5 TD's.

That would be approx. Daniel Jones production in Love's 1st year starting, which got Jones a shiny new 4yr/$160Mil contract.

Correct. Rodgers largely sucked last year.

 

[Dantés]

My first reaction to this scenario is that if this happens, there is a 50/50 chance of us being in the NFC Championship game. I'd be delirious if your scenario played out because I'm expecting more along the lines of 28 passes per game and more field position type games.

You really think that would be enough to get us to the NFCCG? Doesn't seem like the defense would be anywhere near good enough for that to become a reality.

 

[OldSchool101]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

I like the Premise. I’d adjust that down a tick though
27 attempts/gm. I agree he might scramble a bit more similar to early AR and I think we use our Run game a smidge more his first season

62% passing TD:INT 7:3 ratio
(24TD/11INT)

That’s an area I’d be very content as a 1st year starter.

 

[PackAttack12]

21 TD
16 INT

3480 passing yards

360 rushing yards

 

[mradtke66]

I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often.

I would not be surprised if he checks out MORE the first quarter of the season, though I'm not sure exactly when that could change or how much that'll impact the totals.

Right now, every Packers 2023 opponent is likely assessing us as: "New quarterback, inexperienced and largely unproven pass catchers, and two good running backs." With that in mind, I expect those defensive coordinators to largely sell out against the run until such time that Love is able to punish them.

The other wrinkle is figuring out if they have their jet motion guy and if they do, if it's Reed, at what point is he ready to step into the role? Watson is suited to the role (sometimes, anyway) but as he is now our veteran and our best WR, I'd guess that they'd want to keep him as a WR most of the time. Such a player can make running against a loaded box less of bad idea.

I'd also say the Packers ended up at approximately the optimal run/pass ratio considering the modern rules. 44.7% run, 55.3% pass.

 

[AmishMafia]

Don't fault the reasoning behind these numbers, but that stat line is actually BETTER than AR put up in '22.

IMHO, I think: 63%, YPA of 7.0 (Carr, D. Jones, T. Lawrence rate). 4.4% TD, 2.4% INT. Can't argue about rushing #'s.
Result: 315/500, 3500 yds, 22 TD's, 12 INT's; 77 rush, 347 yds., 5 TD's.

That would be approx. Daniel Jones production in Love's 1st year starting, which got Jones a shiny new 4yr/$160Mil contract.

Upon further review, AR's numbers in '22 place him #11 in total yards, #19 yds/gm, #7 TD's, #10 in attempts, #10 completions and#21 in completion %. Your Results would put Love as a top-3rd tier QB, which I don't think is out of the question at all. My numbers would put him top-half and I fully expect him to be better than 1/2 of the starters in the NFL this year.

Love played better than AR last season. Of course, a much smaller sample size, but it is what we have to work with.

On the plus side, Watson and Doubs have an extra year of experience, on the negative side, Lazard and Tonyan are gone. It's not likely that Musgrave and Kraft will help all that much.

Reed will help, but doesn't offset a veteran like Lazard.

Where Love will exceed Rodgers is by using the whole field, following the game plan, focusing on moving the sticks, and most importantly, providing leadership.

I think Love will have his moments of struggle, but for the most part, the offense will be more effective this season. I imagine more running plays and more of an emphasis on short passes to make it easier for Love.


320/480, 3600 yds, 24 TD's, 14 INT's; 50 rush, 40 yds., 2 TD's.

Packers go 11-6 and lose to Philly first round of playoffs

 

[Southside]

If Love should be a failure, the Packers will have two first round draft picks in 2024. The 2024 QB draft group is outstanding. The Packers should be able to snag one.

 

[tynimiller]

I would give Gute a raise and an extention if Love hit those numbers.

I believe MLF would be more the appropriate recipient but I get the sentiment and both could be in discussion for sure.

 

[tynimiller]

My first reaction to this scenario is that if this happens, there is a 50/50 chance of us being in the NFC Championship game. I'd be delirious if your scenario played out because I'm expecting more along the lines of 28 passes per game and more field position type games.

I don't personally feel those stats would get us to the NFCCG...now I guess if we have a Top 5 defense I could see it but that would mean a Barry firing....

 

[Dantés]

I've been thinking about what a successful season for Jordan Love might look like according to reasonable expectations. Now granted, he might not end up actually being successful, even if we keep the expectations modest. So keep in mind that this projection is a scenario where he's successful.

The Baseline: To set a baseline for this projection, I started by trying to make an educated guess regarding number of attempts. In this offense, Rodgers attempted 36, 33, 33, and 32 attempts per game from 2019-2022 respectively. I am projecting that Love checks out of run plays at a lower rate and elects to run himself a little more often. I'm placing his projected total at 30 attempts per game passing. Given his youth and mobility, I am projecting 4.5 rush attempts per game, for a total of 77.

The Rates: A completion percentage of 66% and a YPA of 7.4 would be just a hair above average over the last three seasons. Likewise, 5.0% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate would be right around the middle of the league over the last three seasons. Given that Love is a solid athlete and would likely be picking his spots as a scrambling runner, I'm projecting 4.5 YPC.

The Result (17 gms): 337/510, 3774 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT; 77 rush, 347 yards, 5 TD

So there's my projection for Love that is aimed at being reasonable but would still constitute a success.

What say you? If Love turns in that season, gets better as it goes along, and the Packers end up with two picks in the late teens, are you trying to go get a new QB, or do you roll forward with Love?

I'm revising this down a touch.

66% => 64.5%
7.4 YPA => 7.2
5.0% TD => 4.8
1.9% INT => 2.1

Comes out like this: 329/510, 3672 yards, 24 TD, 11 INT

This would be a passer rating of 92.54

Here's how that could play out among the pass catchers:

-C. Watson, WR: 97 targets, 60 receptions, 835 yds, 5 TD
-A. Jones, RB: 80 targets, 59 receptions, 405 yds, TD
-R. Doubs, WR: 75 targets, 45 receptions, 600 yds, 4 TD
-J. Reed, WR: 65 targets, 43 receptions, 500 yards, 2 TD
-L. Musgrave, TE: 50 targets, 33 receptions, 450 yards, 5 TD
-T. Kraft, TE: 45 targets, 30 receptions, 332 yards, 3 TD
-J. Deguara, TE: 35 targets, 23 receptions, 220 yards, 2 TD
-A. Dillon, RB: 33 targets, 21 receptions, 130 yards, TD
-S. Toure, WR: 30 targets, 15 receptions, 200 yards

This projection would assume that everyone stays healthy. If Love misses time, production across the board will suffer. When pass catchers miss time, their stats will deflate and others will increase.

 

[tynimiller]

For some reason I always envisioned I want to see his completion percentage over 60% minimum with second half higher than first half.
I for some reason kept thinking 3500 yards and TDs to INTs to be a 2:1 ratio or so.

Slightly lower but not really than what you were illustrating @Dantés which the crazy thing is in this NFC North depending on how good our run game is to go with this and if Barry can luck into a Top 15 or better defense there is an outside chance we are in the hunt if 10 wins could take the division.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Correct. Rodgers largely sucked last year.

Rodgers put up disappointing numbers in 2022 compared to the rest of his career but those would still be pretty good for a first year starter.

Love played better than AR last season. Of course, a much smaller sample size, but it is what we have to work with.

Love threw 21 passes all of last season, most of them against prevent defenses. It's close to impossible to draw any conclusions from that on how he will be doing as a full-time starter.

Slightly lower but not really than what you were illustrating @Dantés which the crazy thing is in this NFC North depending on how good our run game is to go with this and if Barry can luck into a Top 15 or better defense there is an outside chance we are in the hunt if 10 wins could take the division.

Well, the Packers have finished 13th in points allowed in 2021 and 17th last season during Barry's tenure as the team's defensive coordinator. Therefore them featuring a top 15 unit next season isn't out of the question in my opinion.

 

[PikeBadger]

You really think that would be enough to get us to the NFCCG? Doesn't seem like the defense would be anywhere near good enough for that to become a reality.

I expect Clark & Campbell to revert back to their 2021 level of play. Walker, Stokes and Wyatt should be improved. I'm admittedly concerned that we won't see Gary at his best until back half of the season. Need Enagbare and Van Ness to fill that void until then. Savage is also a concern for me.

 

[PikeBadger]

I would not be surprised if he checks out MORE the first quarter of the season, though I'm not sure exactly when that could change or how much that'll impact the totals.

Right now, every Packers 2023 opponent is likely assessing us as: "New quarterback, inexperienced and largely unproven pass catchers, and two good running backs." With that in mind, I expect those defensive coordinators to largely sell out against the run until such time that Love is able to punish them.

The other wrinkle is figuring out if they have their jet motion guy and if they do, if it's Reed, at what point is he ready to step into the role? Watson is suited to the role (sometimes, anyway) but as he is now our veteran and our best WR, I'd guess that they'd want to keep him as a WR most of the time. Such a player can make running against a loaded box less of bad idea.

I'd also say the Packers ended up at approximately the optimal run/pass ratio considering the modern rules. 44.7% run, 55.3% pass.

A loaded box implies someone is all alone covering Watson. I feel sorry for the poor ba$t@rd on that island.

 

[mradtke66]

A loaded box implies someone is all alone covering Watson. I feel sorry for the poor ba$t@rd on that island.

You're not wrong.

The other possible approach, at least early, would be to double Watson, play the box heavy, and single cover everyone else. There is a limit to how many good teams could pull that off or for how long, AND it now means Love should have an easier time running or finding the open man, but it requires him to reliably make the check, identify the guy who is most likely open, find him after the snap, the receiver actually win 1:1, and then deliver an accurate pass before the rush gets there.

All of that is possible, but I expect everyone to challenge us/Love and find out if he can actually do those things reliably.

 

[Dantés]

I expect Clark & Campbell to revert back to their 2021 level of play. Walker, Stokes and Wyatt should be improved. I'm admittedly concerned that we won't see Gary at his best until back half of the season. Need Enagbare and Van Ness to fill that void until then. Savage is also a concern for me.

Oh the personnel is stellar. Best group of defensive talent in the NFCN by a long shot. But I just don’t see reason at this point to have faith in Barry’s ability to get the most out of them.

 

[Pkrjones]

You're not wrong.

The other possible approach, at least early, would be to double Watson, play the box heavy, and single cover everyone else. There is a limit to how many good teams could pull that off or for how long, AND it now means Love should have an easier time running or finding the open man, but it requires him to reliably make the check, identify the guy who is most likely open, find him after the snap, the receiver actually win 1:1, and then deliver an accurate pass before the rush gets there.

All of that is possible, but I expect everyone to challenge us/Love and find out if he can actually do those things reliably.

I love the matchup of Kraft & Musgrave against LB's or Safeties and think Love won't have a problem finding a hot-read or check-down. I think Tonyan was mis-used in '22 and could've been more of a safety-blanket for AR...but wasn't.

 

[Mondio]

Oh the personnel is stellar. Best group of defensive talent in the NFCN by a long shot. But I just don’t see reason at this point to have faith in Barry’s ability to get the most out of them.

He does seem to find ways to get less out of more than a lot of coaches would. Too much talent on that side of the ball to be that inconsistent half to half and week to week.

 

[Mondio]

I love the matchup of Kraft & Musgrave against LB's or Safeties and think Love won't have a problem finding a hot-read or check-down. I think Tonyan was mis-used in '22 and could've been more of a safety-blanket for AR...but wasn't.

I see a lot of potential for those 2 being on the field vs what we've had to put on the field. I just hope they can utilize it right away vs the trend of TE's across the league historically taking more time.