2020 Watchlist

[PackFan2]

The RBs this year are pretty solid. Including mid-late round picks like Darryton Evans and Darrius Anderson. Alot of them need to work on pass block including some early rounders.

I've yet to find a D'Onta Foreman type player where I dislike, maybe AJ Dillon in terms of run power if I have to be VERY picky. Dillon is listed as 250 but sometimes I felt like he played as if he was 210. Thing is, I can see the James Conner comparison because sometimes you see Dillon use his size and explosiveness to his advantage and its magical. I was a big James Conner fan and got grief for sh*ting on Foreman. I'd love to bring in Dillon and do private workout to see him catch and run some routes. I want Dillon on our team.

Darryton Evans is my sleeper pick. I think he has the potential to be an Aaron Jones 2.0 in terms of being drafted in mid rounds. Per pass-catching ability, he's one of the best pass-catching RBs coming out and is very slippery runner.

 

[PackFan2]

I was a big critic of Ben Barch until I watched his Senior Bowl practice and he shut down some of the top EDGE rushers in this draft. Im really really impressed.

 

[GleefulGary]

Have we talked about how good Michael Pittman is? He's really good.

 

[PackFan2]

https://nfldraftcombineanalysis.wordpress.com/

A pretty good read if you're into analytics. Combine performances (+height, weight) only explained 4% of Career Approximate Value of a player. Basically, its a cr@pshoot. There are more variables at play than just relative athletic score "RAS" (I hate this measurement -psychometrically it makes no sense). I tried merging prospects to their college stats to see if college production was a better predictor of CAV but there were so many missing players (like Bryan Bulaga), I gave up. Broad jump and 3 cone drill were strongly associated with future CAV (keeping in mind it explained 4%).

 

[PackFan2]

Have we talked about how good Michael Pittman is? He's really good.

I love Pittman. He's athletic, good route runner but above all has some of the best hands coming out this draft. I think Pittman and Duvernay had zero drops last season?

Players with focus/concentration drops have scared me in the past. I was a big fan of Kevin White because of his combine but couldn't stay healthy. White also had problems with drops in college and I thought he would change .. nope. J'Mon Moore comes to mind with college focus drops.

 

[GleefulGary]

I love Pittman. He's athletic, good route runner but above all has some of the best hands coming out this draft. I think Pittman and Duvernay had zero drops last season?

Players with focus/concentration drops have scared me in the past. I was a big fan of Kevin White because of his combine but couldn't stay healthy. White also had problems with drops in college and I thought he would change .. nope. J'Mon Moore comes to mind with college focus drops.

Pittman and Duvernay, or Gibson (Memphis) would be a really fun combo.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Have we talked about how good Michael Pittman is? He's really good.

I'd be happy if they moved down into the top of the 2nd round and drafted Pittman...unless they passed on Mims to do it. I REALLY want them to draft Mims in the first. Barring that though, I think Pittman is going to be a very good professional player that runs excellent routes, is a BIG receiver, and has tremendous hands. He's not the deep guy the Packers need badly but that's really the only knock on him.

 

[PackFan2]

Pittman and Duvernay, or Gibson (Memphis) would be a really fun combo.

I'm changing my tune on Duvernay... Rewatching his route running.. it's sort of cringey.. I'll post some vids.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm changing my tune on Duvernay... Rewatching his route running.. it's sort of cringey.. I'll post some vids.

Duvernay is a slightly better version of a MVS. He as slightly more polished route tree, but that isn't saying much as we all know. Duvernay I'm firm about should not be considered until the 4th round....which I foresee him going as early as 3rd or as late as 5th.

The kid can fly, has decent size and can track...but his route tree is a huge issue as it was and is for MVS IMO. However, I see a LOT more promise in him as some of his breaks are solid and can be grown from.

 

[GleefulGary]

I'm changing my tune on Duvernay... Rewatching his route running.. it's sort of cringey.. I'll post some vids.

He's a little thick/stiff.

I actually think he could make a decent RB/WR player. A gadget player. Similar to Ty Montgomery.

 

[PackFan2]

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Here's Duvernay's 1v1 reps in Senior bowl... His speed/acceleration shows up in the fade routes. However, once he gets jammed and needs to reroute, its over. His route running is below average at best.. Im not just saying it to be an ***. Best thing about Duvernay though, is that he has VERY reliable hands.

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Its not just practice though, his poor route running shows up in game.^above vs Oklahoma state - the first snap.. He's running an In/Dig route. He poorly tries to sells the out route but theres no explosion turning it back to In route. Tries same route again @ 0:50 gets shut down.

Compare that to KJ Hill. Who has a similar build measurement (but looks more trim than Durvernay) but lacks top-end speed. Hill broke one of the DBs ankles.

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[elcid]

This is the best thread I could find this post this. According to the NFL's official website (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...nking-each-position-group-in-this-years-class), the top 5 strongest positional groups are from start to bottom WR, OT, IDL, ILB, RB.

It's scary how this ranking almost identically matches with the ranking of the Pack's needs (where imo the only difference would be that RB would be switched for TE). If Gute nails this draft we could be a legit SB contender for at least 2 years.

 

[tynimiller]

This is the best thread I could find this post this. According to the NFL's official website (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...nking-each-position-group-in-this-years-class), the top 5 strongest positional groups are from start to bottom WR, OT, IDL, ILB, RB.

It's scary how this ranking almost identically matches with the ranking of the Pack's needs (where imo the only difference would be that RB would be switched for TE). If Gute nails this draft we could be a legit SB contender for at least 2 years.

OH it is honestly one of the denser draft classes in a multitude of positions. While I know some would argue the TOP PREMIERE players are not as numerous, the solid player depth and especially what I guess I'd call Tier 3 players is very deep IMO. The types of projected guys that have high chances of contributing and starting by their 2nd/3rd seasons are high.

It is that DEPTH which causes me a heavy pause EVERY mock going WR with our first pick #30 despite we needing one. While some say minor moves haven't cured it at WR, the more and more I think on it the more and more Gute may be far more comfortable to not force a HIGH pick on WR given everything we have going into 2020 at the position already. *I have to stress the following does not in ANY way mean one can assume a bonafide #2 is in this group somewhere.

We signed the best talented WR the CFL had to offer in Begelton, we have an ascending player in Lazard, we have a promising 2018 rookie that missed 2019 due to injury coming back, an MVS that knows his back against against the cutting block and now we add Funchess into the mix. TE position, of the receiving positions, one could logically argue needs a weapon or addition perhaps sooner as no bonafide #1 exists in that TE group.

I think this OL group from all positions are incredibly deep...I mean you got guys I could see starting and being decent in a pinch in the 6th and 7th round....Michigan's Runyan comes to mind quickly.

 

[elcid]

OH it is honestly one of the denser draft classes in a multitude of positions. While I know some would argue the TOP PREMIERE players are not as numerous, the solid player depth and especially what I guess I'd call Tier 3 players is very deep IMO. The types of projected guys that have high chances of contributing and starting by their 2nd/3rd seasons are high.

It is that DEPTH which causes me a heavy pause EVERY mock going WR with our first pick #30 despite we needing one. While some say minor moves haven't cured it at WR, the more and more I think on it the more and more Gute may be far more comfortable to not force a HIGH pick on WR given everything we have going into 2020 at the position already. *I have to stress the following does not in ANY way mean one can assume a bonafide #2 is in this group somewhere.

We signed the best talented WR the CFL had to offer in Begelton, we have an ascending player in Lazard, we have a promising 2018 rookie that missed 2019 due to injury coming back, an MVS that knows his back against against the cutting block and now we add Funchess into the mix. TE position, of the receiving positions, one could logically argue needs a weapon or addition perhaps sooner as no bonafide #1 exists in that TE group.

I think this OL group from all positions are incredibly deep...I mean you got guys I could see starting and being decent in a pinch in the 6th and 7th round....Michigan's Runyan comes to mind quickly.

I hear you on the potential bounce-back ability our WR group has. However at this point I'm only fine with passing on the Best (Fitted) Receiver Available, if either Murray/Queen or if any of the top 5 OT's is there at #30. I am not fond of the TE's. Maybe I'd take Blacklock or Gallimore if there, but that's probably it.

I still feel like the offense is our weakest link going into next season, and surrounding Rodgers with as much weapons as possible is going to help him regain his fine form. Better not wait out on trying to do that unless a premier talent at a position of great need is there at 30.

 

[tynimiller]

Oh I agree. I just am more and more of pick a BIGGUN at 30 on either side than pack in the next 3 picks skill positions at least twice, TE or WR or a hybrid RB/WR even as well. As a whole I want two OL, two WR and/or at least one RB or TE if not one of each.

 

[PackFan2]

I wouldn't mind if Packers picked up Claypool in second round. Claypool is a straight-up bully.

 

[Dantés]

I wouldn't mind if Packers picked up Claypool in second round. Claypool is a straight-up bully.

I'm not down on him for what he is, but Claypool on top of already having Lazard and Funchess would seem like a LOT to have in that "type" of player when the WR corps needs a few other skill sets.

 

[GleefulGary]

I wouldn't mind if Packers picked up Claypool in second round. Claypool is a straight-up bully.

I usually agree with you, but we're far off on this.

I just do not like his tape.

 

[PackFan2]

I'm not down on him for what he is, but Claypool on top of already having Lazard and Funchess would seem like a LOT to have in that "type" of player when the WR corps needs a few other skill sets.

Body-wise.. sure but their play styles are soo different. You'd want Funchess to be like Claypool... but Funchess isn't. Funchess maybe 6'4 and 230+ but he is not the athlete like Claypool and Funchess does not use his size to his advantage like Claypool. Theres also a chance Funchess wont even make the roster.

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Claypool and Lazard have very different playstyle. Lazard is similar to a Van Jefferson (vice versa)IMO

 

[PackFan2]

I usually agree with you, but we're far off on this.

I just do not like his tape.

Its okay to disagree.

 

[GleefulGary]

Body-wise.. sure but their play styles are soo different. You'd want Funchess to be like Claypool... but Funchess isn't. Funchess maybe 6'4 and 230+ but he is not the athlete like Claypool and Funchess does not use his size to his advantage like Claypool. Theres also a chance Funchess wont even make the roster.

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Claypool and Lazard have very different playstyle. Lazard is similar to a Van Jefferson (vice versa)IMO

Lazard and Van Jefferson are nothing alike.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm with @GleefulGary I don't see the Lazard and Van thing. Can you explain?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Anyone care to wager when WR's start coming of the board or more importantly, I should ask what is your prediction as to how will they start coming off the board? Will it be one of these scenarios or a combination of them?

1. Everybody knows the WR pool is deep and once a few of the tops ones are gone, switch to focusing on other needs until later and patiently wait until rd 3 and beyond to grab a WR.
2. 2 or 3 of the second tier guys are drafted in a row and panic ensues. There is a mass run on the deep class of WR's with a bulk of them being snapped up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
3. Business as usual, the deep class of WR's will spread out over the entire draft and even in round 6 you will find guys that in other years were second round talent.

 

[Dantés]

Anyone care to wager when WR's start coming of the board or more importantly, I should ask what is your prediction as to how will they start coming off the board? Will it be one of these scenarios or a combination of them?

1. Everybody knows the WR pool is deep and once a few of the tops ones are gone, switch to focusing on other needs until later and patiently wait until rd 3 and beyond to grab a WR.
2. 2 or 3 of the second tier guys are drafted in a row and panic ensues. There is a mass run on the deep class of WR's with a bulk of them being snapped up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
3. Business as usual, the deep class of WR's will spread out over the entire draft and even in round 6 you will find guys that in other years were second round talent.

If history is instructive, it will happen in little runs.

2014, the best comp to this class at WR in recent memory, saw 12 receivers go in the first two rounds, and they happened in little chunks.

Three went in nine picks from 4 to 12.
Two kind of struck off singly at 20 and 28.
Three went in seven picks from 39 to 45.
Four went in eleven picks from 53 to 63.

I could see this year unfolding similarly. I think Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs will peal off early in some order. Then small runs will play out, probably into round 3 before the glut at this position peters out and things set into normal patterns.

I know some pundits like Kiper have said some outrageous things about twenty something WR's coming off the board in the first two rounds or whatever. It's their job to say things that will generate reaction. That won't happen.

If we break down NFL positions into: QB, RB, TE, WR, OT, iOL, iDL, EDGE, LB, CB, S, that's 11 positions. So a purely proportional spread would means that 5.8% of the top 64 would be any one position, or between 3 and 4 players.

So 12/64 (18.7%) would already be more than three times the number you'd expect proportionately. I'm not saying it can't be higher than 12, but if it is, it won't be by much.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If history is instructive, it will happen in little runs.

2014, the best comp to this class at WR in recent memory, saw 12 receivers go in the first two rounds, and they happened in little chunks.

Three went in nine picks from 4 to 12.
Two kind of struck off singly at 20 and 28.
Three went in seven picks from 39 to 45.
Four went in eleven picks from 53 to 63.

I could see this year unfolding similarly. I think Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs will peal off early in some order. Then small runs will play out, probably into round 3 before the glut at this position peters out and things set into normal patterns.

I know some pundits like Kiper have said some outrageous things about twenty something WR's coming off the board in the first two rounds or whatever. It's their job to say things that will generate reaction. That won't happen.

If we break down NFL positions into: QB, RB, TE, WR, OT, iOL, iDL, EDGE, LB, CB, S, that's 11 positions. So a purely proportional spread would means that 5.8% of the top 64 would be any one position, or between 3 and 4 players.

So 12/64 (18.7%) would already be more than three times the number you'd expect proportionately. I'm not saying it can't be higher than 12, but if it is, it won't be by much.

If the Packers truly are prepared/willing to use a high pick on one of the better WR's, Gute is going to want someone to play out as many scenarios as they can. As I said before, while I don't know what other teams are looking for exactly, I have to guess that Gute might be looking specifically for a fast slot receiver, which might increase his odds of a good one still being available in the second round and as late as the 3rd. Now if he wants to follow his pattern of a big tall receiver, with some top end speed, I think as you pointed out earlier, we might see him target Mims as his big, fast slot WR.