2020 Watchlist

[Heyjoe4]

TT went on a pretty lousy streak there for a while where the Packers either drafted a player in the 1st who never saw an extension, or didn't make a pick in the 1st round: 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2017.

That’s a lotta bad years..... Felt like ground hog day every year where the first two picks were CBs. The only one who has panned out so far is Alexander (post TT).

 

[Heyjoe4]

Any GM who fails to find a QB is going to have a poor legacy. So it's true that finding Rodgers made TT's career a success, but that's also a truism of NFL GM's, generally.

Thompson was one of the best GM's in the league for a long time. While it's fair to criticize his unwillingness to use free agency more effectively, it's also pretty amazing what he was able to accomplish without it.

It's unfortunate that no one in the organization stepped in sooner when he quite clearly began slipping. He was left in the position beyond what he ought to have been and the roster has paid and is paying the price for a couple bad drafts in his home stretch.

Here's the list:

• Aaron Rodgers
• Mason Crosby
• David Bakhtiari
• Davante Adams
• Corey Linsley
• Kenny Clark
• Dean Lowry
• Kevin King
• Montravius Adams
• Jamaal Williams
• Aaron Jones

Yeah, TT worked well past his “sell by” date. I can’t be critical of him without knowing if there were underlying medical reasons. He was good for a lot of years, he drafted Rodgers. Good enough for me. All the best Ted.

 

[Dantés]

Yeah, TT worked well past his “sell by” date. I can’t be critical of him without knowing if there were underlying medical reasons. He was good for a lot of years, he drafted Rodgers. Good enough for me. All the best Ted.

I am not really comfortable speculating about people's medical conditions, so all I will say is that if you listen to his last press conferences before he left the position, you're likely to draw a particular conclusion.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I am not really comfortable speculating about people's medical conditions, so all I will say is that if you listen to his last press conferences before he left the position, you're likely to draw a particular conclusion.

With all respect, that kinda sounds like speculation.

 

[PackFan2]

I like Troy Dye a lot.

I like Dye alot too. I have him mocked in Amish's thread. I like him way more than Jordyn Brooks(who I'm not too high on).

 

[PackFan2]

I like Troy Dye a lot.

this dude can ball.. he reads the offense and quickly reacts to it. Most of all, he ain't afraid to hit and take on blocks. Watching Dye reminds me of when I was watching Fred Warner (I was very high on Warner coming out.. see my old posts). I just get that gut feeling.

 

[Dantés]

I like Dye too, but he's another one that's going to be a 24 yo rookie. You've got to be careful about those over-aged prospects. Doesn't rule them out-- just something to note.

 

[Dantés]

On the subject of age, here are the super young guys in the draft-- the one's who haven't turned 21 yet (all these ages with weird decimals are out of Brugler's draft guide):

• Cam Akers, RB, FSU: 20.84
• Jedrick Wills, OT, AL: 20.93
• Austin Jackson, OT, USC: 20.70
• Saahdiq Charles, OT, LSU: 20.74
• Cesar Ruiz, C, UM: 20.86
• K'Lavon Chaisson, ED, LSU: 20.74
• Jonathan Garvin, ED, FLA: 20.74
• Patrick Queen, LB, LSU: 20.69
• Noah Igbinoghene, CB, AUB: 20.41

Some other guys I noticed who just barely turned 21 are Ceedee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, and Jaylon Johnson.

 

[PackFan2]

I like Dye too, but he's another one that's going to be a 24 yo rookie. You've got to be careful about those over-aged prospects. Doesn't rule them out-- just something to note.

I'm not scared bout older rookies if they have shown they have consistently shown they can play and Dye has.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don’t think considering Taylor as a first round pick makes you a Badger Homer. (Now if it were Cephus, well then you’re all in).

Bigger question is do the Packers need to spend a first round pick on him? I ask that only because good RBs are almost always available later, and we’ve still got Jones. Now if we get to #30 and Taylor is the BPA, then yeah, take him. But while every GM will say they draft the BPA, that rarely happens. It’s almost always for need.

And while RB could be a need for GB come 2021, there are bigger needs in the 2020 draft - notably WR, OT, and ILB. Actually, considering the dearth of ILB talent outside Simmons, Murray, and Queen, that third need should be DL. All that said, I’d probably take Baun if he was there at #30. Talk about a Badger Homer!

My post on Taylor was from last May. I was saying he should be on the watch list for 2019. The 2019 season is over and I still think he will be a good NFL RB, but not a guy that the Packers should be looking at, based on too many other needs. Now, if he is still around in the 3rd round for the Packers, I wouldn't mind the pick. He had another solid year at the UW, but sadly for him, he had a few fumbles towards the end of the season. Because of that, I imagine most teams are concerned about ball security and he isn't taken until the middle of round 2 or later.

 

[Dantés]

I'm not scared bout older rookies if they have shown they have consistently shown they can play and Dye has.

Again, I'm not saying you should be scared off, but it can't be anything but a negative. He was a lot older and more developed than the majority of the guys he was playing against in college. And his physical upside isn't as high because he just physiologically doesn't have as much time to develop.

I would think of it in the same light as a guy coming from a lower level of football. It's not a deal breaker by any means, but it needs to be considered.

 

[GleefulGary]

Who was the old guy from Baylor? He ended up sucking.

 

[Dantés]

Who was the old guy from Baylor? He ended up sucking.

Danny Watkins was the guard that the Eagles took from Baylor. He was like a 26 or 27 year old rookie. One of the worst picks of all time.

 

[GleefulGary]

Danny Watkins was the guard that the Eagles took from Baylor. He was like a 26 or 27 year old rookie. One of the worst picks of all time.

Thank you! Supposed to be a safe pick.

The draft is crazy.

 

[Dantés]

Thank you! Supposed to be a safe pick.

The draft is crazy.

Try to imagine drafting a 26 year old guard-only prospect out of the Big 12 one pick before Cameron Jordan.

 

[GleefulGary]

Try to imagine drafting a 26 year old guard-only prospect out of the Big 12 one pick before Cameron Jordan.

I wish I could have seen their reactions when they got him on the field and realized they made a huge mistake.

 

[Dantés]

General Managers have their work cut out for them sorting through these pro day numbers that are coming out online.

Cam Danztler claims to have gone from running a 4.64 at the combine to a 4.38 at his pro day. There is no way that he legitimately shaved .26 off of his combine time. But the question is whether it's safe to believe that his true speed is somewhere in the middle. 4.55 speed at corner is dramatically more likely to succeed than 4.64 speed. The latter is basically undraftable, but the former is fine. It would be an easier call if he was slow on tape, but he isn't. Getting beat deep wasn't a consistent problem for him.

Then there's Jalen Reagor. 206 lbs, runs a 4.47 at the combine with a 7.31 3C and a 4.46 SS. Now he's released a pro day video at 197 lbs with times of 4.22 and 4.28, 3.97 and 4.04 SS, and 6.72 and 6.75 3C. Again, the truth is doubtlessly somewhere in between. It's unlikely he's a 4.22 type of athlete, but he certainly looks like a 4.3 guy on tape, and his agilities were oddly high at the combine. Many athletes reported that with the new schedule, their legs felt dead by the time the agility drills rolled around.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

General Managers have their work cut out for them sorting through these pro day numbers that are coming out online.

Agreed. I made note of that when this all started going down. I think this draft has the chance to be full of some real bargains and some real busts. I also wonder how they are confirming medicals? I guess you have to trust that the doctor examining these guys in person are telling the truth. Maybe doing exams with team doctors on Zoom with the actual doctor doing the exams?

 

[Dantés]

Agreed. I made note of that when this all started going down. I think this draft has the chance to be full of some real bargains and some real busts. I also wonder how they are confirming medicals? I guess you have to trust that the doctor examining these guys in person are telling the truth. Maybe doing exams with team doctors on Zoom with the actual doctor doing the exams?

They are assigning prospects to the team medical staffs of the NFL nearest their geographical location, and those staffs are then sharing the information to all 32 teams.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

They are assigning prospects to the team medical staffs of the NFL nearest their geographical location, and those staffs are then sharing the information to all 32 teams.

What could go wrong with that? Let's hope we aren't relying on medical staffs of NFC North Division teams to give us their report.

I would hope that given the situation and professionalism, this won't be a concern, but in the billion dollar industry of the NFL, you just never know.

 

[Dantés]

What could go wrong with that? Let's hope we aren't relying on medical staffs of NFC North Division teams to give us their report.

I would hope that given the situation and professionalism, this won't be a concern, but in the billion dollar industry of the NFL, you just never know.

One would hope that because they all have to rely on honest info from other clubs, they will be honest themselves.

If any FO, including the Packers, tries to use this situation as created by a global pandemic to lie and trick other team, then I hope they never win another game.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, I would hope medical staffs do not lie. I would also hope that false data isn't being submitted with these "taped pro days", but I can see where some of the numbers would be very hard to trust. Also, aren't some of the timing mechanisms used at pro days a lot less accurate? Handheld stop watches vs electronic laser timing of the start and finish at the combine?

 

[Dantés]

Yes, I would hope medical staffs do not lie. I would also hope that false data isn't being submitted with these "taped pro days", but I can see where some of the numbers would be very hard to trust. Also, aren't some of the timing mechanisms used at pro days a lot less accurate? Handheld stop watches vs electronic laser timing of the start and finish at the combine?

Yes, much less accurate.

A couple things go on with pro days.

One is that players are in their comfort zone. The combine is a pretty grueling process and they don't get to decide when to do anything once they're there. At a pro day, you can get yourself feeling exactly right leading up to the moment when you run or do whatever.

Another is that the means of timing are less accurate. A hand timed 4.22 could be a 4.35 at the combine. Human error is real and the margins here are tiny.

A third is that guys have their combine to use as a self-assessment. Maybe they added weight because they wanted to be listed bigger, but didn't run as well. Well now they can drop the weight. Maybe they did the agility drills at 7:00 after a bunch of other drills and they sucked. Well now they can schedule them at a better time.

And then specifically for these taped pro days, guys can film themselves doing a drill 15 times and then send out the best one. Maybe a guy is super hit and miss with his starts in the forty, and it's the difference of .05. So you keeps trying until he nails the start and then sends out the one 4.45 to teams out of a batch that are all 4.50 and up.

Ultimately you just have to check it against the tape.

The reason Danztler's 4.38 catches my eye is because he's not slow on film. I don't believe 4.38 for a second, but the film also says that 4.64 isn't quite right either. And if the reality is in between, he's a very interesting prospect.

The reason why Reagor's workout isn't just something I write off entirely (though I do dismiss 4.22) is because he is crazy fast on tape, and he gained weight for the combine. He went back down 10 lbs for the pro day. And his agilities made no sense against his COD skills in games. So I don't buy a 3.97 SS necessarily, but I do believe he has high end results there.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It will be interesting to see if this effects where Baun gets drafted. I had seen him mocked late first to mid second.

Wisconsin’s Zach Baun, the third-rated linebacker on Mel Kiper Jr.’s board, notified all 32 teams that he testified positive for a diluted sample at the combine that he blamed on drinking too much water for weight-related weigh-in purposes, per league sources.

 

[Dantés]

It will be interesting to see if this effects where Baun gets drafted. I had seen him mocked late first to mid second.

Wisconsin’s Zach Baun, the third-rated linebacker on Mel Kiper Jr.’s board, notified all 32 teams that he testified positive for a diluted sample at the combine that he blamed on drinking too much water for weight-related weigh-in purposes, per league sources.

Take this for what it's worth, because I obviously wouldn't know, but Baun reportedly interviewed poorly at the combine.

The drags on Baun's stocks are piling up.

1. He's kind of a positional tweener, playing almost exclusively edge in college but having off-ball linebacker size.

2. His workout was good, but not great-- not blowing people away and making them think he will be a stellar space defender.

3. He is an old prospect, turning 24 during his rookie season.

4. He reportedly had bad interviews at the combine.

5. Now this diluted sample thing.