tynimiller
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With far more of the draft positioning crystalizing over the past weekend, and a TON of time spent more and more so ironing out my draft prospect thoughts + we know more and more who is staying, declaring or transferring...
Hard to believe this is the one January mock already...
1.19 - Amarius Mims OT Georgia 6'7' 340lbs
This tackle prospect many have pegged as one of the highest ceilings and with perhaps the two highest consensus tackles likely are gone (Olu and Alt) and likely a collection of one or two others (Latham, Fuaga even iOL Fautanu maybe) Mims has a chance to still be there if we stay at 19th overall. It isn't a spot I foresee me liking our options a whole lot because truthfully I in my heart of hearts don't believe Cooper DeJean makes it to us...and outside of Wiggins I'm not a massive fan of the CB at this point and if going I'd honestly argue for Quinyon Mitchell over a safety even this early - I think he is going to be special. Either way, the defense for Mims is strong pedigree, and absolute beast of a ceiling in this tackle from Georgia. He's only played RT for Bulldogs and I wonder if adding him doesn't open up a Tom to RG or even Center occurrence (outside chance perhaps even LT). Either way Mims to me is part of the starting 5 if drafted because he is that good.
2.41 - TJ Tampa CB Iowa State 6'2' 200lbs
While safety might make sense here Nubin and Kitchens were gone, and I'm just not a believer in any prospect as much as I am for Tampa. I have TJ rated as my 36th overall guy (7th CB) and believe he could very easily be a starter by the year's end over Stokes or Valentine making that room very stout after a year of many questions and issues (health). Tampa can excel in press or man coverage which is one reason I see him as a solid target for us in that DC changes could be coming and scheme may or may not change with it. Tampa's hips are one of the smoothest and best traits about him, his ability to sink and flip is special. Nearly 32 and 1/2 inch arms is solid but his torso length makes it seem like he is even longer than measurements indicate. With so much uncertainty in the Stokes health category, Jaire mental/team relationship weirdness and Valentine maybe just having a rookie showcase - adding a potentially day 1 starter outside is a surefire way to help that DB room for sure.
2.51 - Javon Bullard S Georgia 5'11 195lbs
Bullard is by far my favorite pure safety prospect after Nubin and Kitchens. Bullard coming off an excellent 2022 where he played primarily in the slot (could do that for us even) but this year slid back to primarily Georgia's deep safety. You want to watch special safety gameplay pull up this year their games against Louisville, Missouri and Bama in the conference championship. Bullock WAS SPECIAL and IMO is an NFL ready starting safety across the entire league except for maybe less than a handful of teams. He instantly comes in and can be our slot, our free or strong truthfully. We need safety help and safety help is coming in the form of a first year starter.
3.83 - Junior Colson LB Michigan 6'3' 247lbs
The hesitation for Junior to break into top 100 discussions typically centered around his ability to play the run, especially against zone blocking schemes from his 2022 tape. Barrett was by far the better rush defender and Colson their coverage strong off ball LB. However, this year time and time again I saw Colson flying and reading instinctively against the run where he would have hesitated just a year ago. What is noticeable with Colson to me is also he shows up in big games....his best games this year to me at least were the games against MSU, Ohio State, Iowa and Bama....in state rival game, Ohio State game was to see who went to CC, Iowa was the CC and Bama in the CFP. Those are four of the biggest five games they had this year. Top it off folks he is a young prospect in years where older classes are happening...he just turned 21 in December. I expect a high RAS to be another indicator he is a Packer type. With this pick a Campbell move is IMO very likely...and we see just that later in this mock.
3.92 - James Williams S Miami 6'5' 215lbs
Insert eyerolls, irate postings and Packer fans up in arms as they hear Gute call not only the fourth straight defensive name, but a third dip in the DB room in those four picks. Arguably to many this is going to be a reach...but I stand by my opinion of Williams. I think he is a SPECIAL safety prospect and arguably more capable of in the box hybrid linebacker play one minute but then has the range and speed to play deep coverage the very next play. Disguising blitzes with him breaking back into coverage could be a special special thing against opposing QBs. The diversity you bring to the safety room with Bullard and Williams is too good to NOT be excited - unless your a Packer fan that only thinks offensive players, and skill players at that are the only ones that exist. With this pick Gute has already a better safety room in 2024 than he did in 2023...toss in a Ford and Owens lower signing and what was a weakness is now potentially a strength or at worst better.
*DEVONDRE CAMPBELL TRADED TO THE RAIDERS FOR A FOURTH* - Now I'm not predicting it is the Raiders, but I strongly hope we move Campbell, especially if we go LB on Day2 - I would look for Gute to be busy seeing if he can find an early day 3 suitor. Chargers are another team or Washington that has a need for LB help and could be a suitor. Even if it costs our 7th rounder I say do it for a top 125 pick if we already have a LB.
4.112 - Darius Robinson ED/DE Missouri 6'5' ????lbs
Do me a favor...put on some Darius Robinson film and just guess what his weight is? Does that now outside tackle used rusher at Missouri, move like a guy that spent 2022 and 2021 as a B Gap lineman??? Does his bend and lateral agility seem like someone that is claimed to way north of 290lbs??? Because that is where he is said to be. His arms are said to be 35 or more inches which make him just a body freak honestly in this class. He's a little like Karl Brooks in that he is an atypical body type for outside tackle but is FEASTING there...imagine a front where you stand up LVN and Darius with KC and Wyatt inside.....that is a BIG front that could cause a ton of sacks and still be decent against a run. With his abnormal body type folks, you're going to see crazy big differences on predictions with him like Karl Brooks...don't be shocked to hear someone say he is a top60 guy and others say he'll be lucky to be drafted before the 5th. Me, I have him firmly cooking around the top 100-120 range player and don't hesitate to take him here and allow Preston more rest than ever before.
4.119 - Audric Estime RB Notre Dame 5'11' 227lbs
Dude's arms are insane...lol only thing I haven't already said about him. Bigger hammer type running back that will juke or wiggle his way around like a big man. Crazy productive over the last two years as ND's main RB and this year showcased better hands then many thought he had. RB room reinforcements are coming and the cardholders of the "skill positions" only club finally are happy...albeit never enough for them.
4.135 - Blake Fisher OT Notre Dame 6'6' 312lbs
How do you help a young QB and a team that doesn't have a need at WR or TE? Draft another starting caliber offensive lineman and force a seriously strong OL battle in the off season. Fisher was ND's Right Tackle...but folks that was ONLY due to Joe Alt being on the other side. I expect Fisher could compete at any of the four spots not named center...and with that now I think there could be NO spot on lock except for LG/Jenkins. I could easily see us open up with Walker / Jenkins / Myers / Tom / Fisher or Walker / Jenkins / Tom / Rhyan / Fisher or....well you get my drift. Personally, atm my bet is our best five in some fashion would be Jenkins, Tom, Mims, Fisher and Walker....but the battle would be a great one to follow.
6.197 - Jontrey Hunter LB Georgia State 6'2' 240lbs
A tackling beast at Georgia State, not necessarily the powerhouse you think of for NFL prospects but this cat (pun intended) has snuck onto many off ball top 10 lists and for good reason. With a DC change came a brand new role/position for Jontrey this year as he moved from predominatelya slot and OLB type role in 2022 to an off ball linebacker in 2023, BUT he has thrived in that role. He is just slightly undersized to the eye, so if he really is 6'2' as listed I'd be shocked, but this movement linebacker has excellent ability to cover guys even in the slot having assignments at times against WRs even and holding his own...now granted he isn't seeing no Marvin Harrison Jr types...but this is a solid sign for his ability to cover TEs and split out RBs possibly at the next level. What excites me most is regardless of his size being a little more slender than some, he is head hunting and his downhill attacking is aggressive in nature. He screams ST contributor and likely would provide value back quickly in that regards, but with a Devondre trade there is a lot to think he could provide as the new ILB4 in GB behind Quay, Junior and McDuffie.
6.217 - Jawhar Jordan RB Louisville 5'10' 185lbs
The poor man's Bucky Irving is too much to overlook at this spot and rather than take a flyer on a UDFA, Gute tabs this guy as the potential third down scat back type in GB with Estime likely pushing for the brunt of RB2 work if Jones is back. Jordan provides outside the tackle speed and pass catching role only at this time...BUT here's something VERY shocking - he holds his own when asked to pass pro - granted a power bull rush is where he is exploited but smaller edge rushers find it hard to get around Jordan. In only three games did he not get a 70 or better PFF grade in pass blocking this past year...that's crazy given his frame, but in watching tape it make sense, because he doesn't shy away from anyone and even if he "loses" a rep he is in the right spot typcially, just cannot win given his size. This dude simply can produce yards with the ball in his hands and do so very quickly...and keeps his feet quite well even when contact is made with smaller defenders.
6.219 Brevyn Spann-Ford TE Minnesota 6'7' 270lbs
Want a 6th OL for some goal line pushes or late game churning out of yards....and yet still have capable hands attached to him? Enter Brevyn Spann-Ford. This Gopher last year was used far more in the passing game and put up 497 yards through the air even after settling some this year in a far less potent offense though. Either way, you're not drafting Brevyn to be your receiving tight end, he is your end of game, goal line TE who is a fully sized blocker that can slip out with good hands. This and an H Back are two TE types we don't have in house...not that we necessarily need Brevyn, but I see the appeal of him if needed and could grow into a Marcedes type for us in a few years. Late round flyer well worth it.
7.240 - Dylan McMahon C North Carolina State 6'4' 305lbs
Late round flyer on a guy that has immense experience along multiple OL spots before settling in as their center this past season. Over 700 snaps last three years at RG, over 500 at LG and over 900 at center. A Day3 guy I could see being gone, or becoming an UDFA priority...if there I love the addition via his utility infielder style experience. Look forward to seeing him at the Shrine Bowl for some reps against higher level comp.
In summary....that's 6 defensive players (all but one taken fourth round or higher) and 6 offensive (final three of Day3 being offense).
Thoughts in review...
The good - the weak defensive backfield rooms get ample reinforcements before Day2 sun sets...and we potentially have an elite tackle of the future in Mims and replaced hopefully Runyan/Nijman as well.
The bad - Tampa might not be a need to spend a top50 pick on if Valentine progresses off a solid rookie campaign and/or Stokes fully healed is more the rookie Stokes vs the last two years...however that is a lot of unknowns. Could also see merit in saying a double dip at safety before finding a RB could be misguided (disagree but can see the merit).
Hard to believe this is the one January mock already...
1.19 - Amarius Mims OT Georgia 6'7' 340lbs
This tackle prospect many have pegged as one of the highest ceilings and with perhaps the two highest consensus tackles likely are gone (Olu and Alt) and likely a collection of one or two others (Latham, Fuaga even iOL Fautanu maybe) Mims has a chance to still be there if we stay at 19th overall. It isn't a spot I foresee me liking our options a whole lot because truthfully I in my heart of hearts don't believe Cooper DeJean makes it to us...and outside of Wiggins I'm not a massive fan of the CB at this point and if going I'd honestly argue for Quinyon Mitchell over a safety even this early - I think he is going to be special. Either way, the defense for Mims is strong pedigree, and absolute beast of a ceiling in this tackle from Georgia. He's only played RT for Bulldogs and I wonder if adding him doesn't open up a Tom to RG or even Center occurrence (outside chance perhaps even LT). Either way Mims to me is part of the starting 5 if drafted because he is that good.
2.41 - TJ Tampa CB Iowa State 6'2' 200lbs
While safety might make sense here Nubin and Kitchens were gone, and I'm just not a believer in any prospect as much as I am for Tampa. I have TJ rated as my 36th overall guy (7th CB) and believe he could very easily be a starter by the year's end over Stokes or Valentine making that room very stout after a year of many questions and issues (health). Tampa can excel in press or man coverage which is one reason I see him as a solid target for us in that DC changes could be coming and scheme may or may not change with it. Tampa's hips are one of the smoothest and best traits about him, his ability to sink and flip is special. Nearly 32 and 1/2 inch arms is solid but his torso length makes it seem like he is even longer than measurements indicate. With so much uncertainty in the Stokes health category, Jaire mental/team relationship weirdness and Valentine maybe just having a rookie showcase - adding a potentially day 1 starter outside is a surefire way to help that DB room for sure.
2.51 - Javon Bullard S Georgia 5'11 195lbs
Bullard is by far my favorite pure safety prospect after Nubin and Kitchens. Bullard coming off an excellent 2022 where he played primarily in the slot (could do that for us even) but this year slid back to primarily Georgia's deep safety. You want to watch special safety gameplay pull up this year their games against Louisville, Missouri and Bama in the conference championship. Bullock WAS SPECIAL and IMO is an NFL ready starting safety across the entire league except for maybe less than a handful of teams. He instantly comes in and can be our slot, our free or strong truthfully. We need safety help and safety help is coming in the form of a first year starter.
3.83 - Junior Colson LB Michigan 6'3' 247lbs
The hesitation for Junior to break into top 100 discussions typically centered around his ability to play the run, especially against zone blocking schemes from his 2022 tape. Barrett was by far the better rush defender and Colson their coverage strong off ball LB. However, this year time and time again I saw Colson flying and reading instinctively against the run where he would have hesitated just a year ago. What is noticeable with Colson to me is also he shows up in big games....his best games this year to me at least were the games against MSU, Ohio State, Iowa and Bama....in state rival game, Ohio State game was to see who went to CC, Iowa was the CC and Bama in the CFP. Those are four of the biggest five games they had this year. Top it off folks he is a young prospect in years where older classes are happening...he just turned 21 in December. I expect a high RAS to be another indicator he is a Packer type. With this pick a Campbell move is IMO very likely...and we see just that later in this mock.
3.92 - James Williams S Miami 6'5' 215lbs
Insert eyerolls, irate postings and Packer fans up in arms as they hear Gute call not only the fourth straight defensive name, but a third dip in the DB room in those four picks. Arguably to many this is going to be a reach...but I stand by my opinion of Williams. I think he is a SPECIAL safety prospect and arguably more capable of in the box hybrid linebacker play one minute but then has the range and speed to play deep coverage the very next play. Disguising blitzes with him breaking back into coverage could be a special special thing against opposing QBs. The diversity you bring to the safety room with Bullard and Williams is too good to NOT be excited - unless your a Packer fan that only thinks offensive players, and skill players at that are the only ones that exist. With this pick Gute has already a better safety room in 2024 than he did in 2023...toss in a Ford and Owens lower signing and what was a weakness is now potentially a strength or at worst better.
*DEVONDRE CAMPBELL TRADED TO THE RAIDERS FOR A FOURTH* - Now I'm not predicting it is the Raiders, but I strongly hope we move Campbell, especially if we go LB on Day2 - I would look for Gute to be busy seeing if he can find an early day 3 suitor. Chargers are another team or Washington that has a need for LB help and could be a suitor. Even if it costs our 7th rounder I say do it for a top 125 pick if we already have a LB.
4.112 - Darius Robinson ED/DE Missouri 6'5' ????lbs
Do me a favor...put on some Darius Robinson film and just guess what his weight is? Does that now outside tackle used rusher at Missouri, move like a guy that spent 2022 and 2021 as a B Gap lineman??? Does his bend and lateral agility seem like someone that is claimed to way north of 290lbs??? Because that is where he is said to be. His arms are said to be 35 or more inches which make him just a body freak honestly in this class. He's a little like Karl Brooks in that he is an atypical body type for outside tackle but is FEASTING there...imagine a front where you stand up LVN and Darius with KC and Wyatt inside.....that is a BIG front that could cause a ton of sacks and still be decent against a run. With his abnormal body type folks, you're going to see crazy big differences on predictions with him like Karl Brooks...don't be shocked to hear someone say he is a top60 guy and others say he'll be lucky to be drafted before the 5th. Me, I have him firmly cooking around the top 100-120 range player and don't hesitate to take him here and allow Preston more rest than ever before.
4.119 - Audric Estime RB Notre Dame 5'11' 227lbs
Dude's arms are insane...lol only thing I haven't already said about him. Bigger hammer type running back that will juke or wiggle his way around like a big man. Crazy productive over the last two years as ND's main RB and this year showcased better hands then many thought he had. RB room reinforcements are coming and the cardholders of the "skill positions" only club finally are happy...albeit never enough for them.
4.135 - Blake Fisher OT Notre Dame 6'6' 312lbs
How do you help a young QB and a team that doesn't have a need at WR or TE? Draft another starting caliber offensive lineman and force a seriously strong OL battle in the off season. Fisher was ND's Right Tackle...but folks that was ONLY due to Joe Alt being on the other side. I expect Fisher could compete at any of the four spots not named center...and with that now I think there could be NO spot on lock except for LG/Jenkins. I could easily see us open up with Walker / Jenkins / Myers / Tom / Fisher or Walker / Jenkins / Tom / Rhyan / Fisher or....well you get my drift. Personally, atm my bet is our best five in some fashion would be Jenkins, Tom, Mims, Fisher and Walker....but the battle would be a great one to follow.
6.197 - Jontrey Hunter LB Georgia State 6'2' 240lbs
A tackling beast at Georgia State, not necessarily the powerhouse you think of for NFL prospects but this cat (pun intended) has snuck onto many off ball top 10 lists and for good reason. With a DC change came a brand new role/position for Jontrey this year as he moved from predominatelya slot and OLB type role in 2022 to an off ball linebacker in 2023, BUT he has thrived in that role. He is just slightly undersized to the eye, so if he really is 6'2' as listed I'd be shocked, but this movement linebacker has excellent ability to cover guys even in the slot having assignments at times against WRs even and holding his own...now granted he isn't seeing no Marvin Harrison Jr types...but this is a solid sign for his ability to cover TEs and split out RBs possibly at the next level. What excites me most is regardless of his size being a little more slender than some, he is head hunting and his downhill attacking is aggressive in nature. He screams ST contributor and likely would provide value back quickly in that regards, but with a Devondre trade there is a lot to think he could provide as the new ILB4 in GB behind Quay, Junior and McDuffie.
6.217 - Jawhar Jordan RB Louisville 5'10' 185lbs
The poor man's Bucky Irving is too much to overlook at this spot and rather than take a flyer on a UDFA, Gute tabs this guy as the potential third down scat back type in GB with Estime likely pushing for the brunt of RB2 work if Jones is back. Jordan provides outside the tackle speed and pass catching role only at this time...BUT here's something VERY shocking - he holds his own when asked to pass pro - granted a power bull rush is where he is exploited but smaller edge rushers find it hard to get around Jordan. In only three games did he not get a 70 or better PFF grade in pass blocking this past year...that's crazy given his frame, but in watching tape it make sense, because he doesn't shy away from anyone and even if he "loses" a rep he is in the right spot typcially, just cannot win given his size. This dude simply can produce yards with the ball in his hands and do so very quickly...and keeps his feet quite well even when contact is made with smaller defenders.
6.219 Brevyn Spann-Ford TE Minnesota 6'7' 270lbs
Want a 6th OL for some goal line pushes or late game churning out of yards....and yet still have capable hands attached to him? Enter Brevyn Spann-Ford. This Gopher last year was used far more in the passing game and put up 497 yards through the air even after settling some this year in a far less potent offense though. Either way, you're not drafting Brevyn to be your receiving tight end, he is your end of game, goal line TE who is a fully sized blocker that can slip out with good hands. This and an H Back are two TE types we don't have in house...not that we necessarily need Brevyn, but I see the appeal of him if needed and could grow into a Marcedes type for us in a few years. Late round flyer well worth it.
7.240 - Dylan McMahon C North Carolina State 6'4' 305lbs
Late round flyer on a guy that has immense experience along multiple OL spots before settling in as their center this past season. Over 700 snaps last three years at RG, over 500 at LG and over 900 at center. A Day3 guy I could see being gone, or becoming an UDFA priority...if there I love the addition via his utility infielder style experience. Look forward to seeing him at the Shrine Bowl for some reps against higher level comp.
In summary....that's 6 defensive players (all but one taken fourth round or higher) and 6 offensive (final three of Day3 being offense).
Thoughts in review...
The good - the weak defensive backfield rooms get ample reinforcements before Day2 sun sets...and we potentially have an elite tackle of the future in Mims and replaced hopefully Runyan/Nijman as well.
The bad - Tampa might not be a need to spend a top50 pick on if Valentine progresses off a solid rookie campaign and/or Stokes fully healed is more the rookie Stokes vs the last two years...however that is a lot of unknowns. Could also see merit in saying a double dip at safety before finding a RB could be misguided (disagree but can see the merit).
