tynimiller
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So nearly every draft...Gute has done one thing arguably - draft a luxury type pick on the first two days or really early Day3 in the fourth. Now by what I mean luxury pick, just so you know where I'm coming from is a pick that roster construction and/or depth charts don't indicate a significant enough need to pick a prospect with need being even half of it, or even any of it.
Historically a few of these are:
Rashan Gary in 2019...we used the 12th overall pick on a guy that wasn't going to even see the field much likely. We had just signed two NFL proven edges in Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith...plus Kyler Fackrell had just had a double digit sack year in 2018.
Elgton Jenkins OC in 2019...we had Corey Linsley...our bookends were locked in...and Jenkins at Ole Miss had only played Tackle before switching to C for them for two years...a lesser degree luxury pick but one which could be argued for sure. He just happened to come in and say to Lane Taylor and Lucas Patrick...sorry but this guard spot is mine....don't forget we also brought Billy Turner in before this draft.
Jordan Love in 2020....massive luxury pick. You have a first ballot HOFer infront of him...likely not going to see the field for years....
AJ Dillon in 2020....We had Aaron Jones. We had Jamaal Williams...Tyler Ervin was signed in March before the draft (he actually played more snaps than Dillon in 2020 then) there was no need or even depth need at RB to go this early.
Josh Myers in 2021...We had Lucas Patrick - who even played like 80%+ of the center snaps in 2021 ready and set.
Zach Tom in 2022...I could make the case for Tom...but his is the biggest stretch...until the 2022 season Runyan and Newman both came in and out the gate looked the part as rookies...many expected one or both to take jumps. Our Tackle position was supposed to be solved with Bakh coming back and Yosh played solid in 2021. Not too mention we had in the third just drafted Rhyan.
Lukas Van Ness in 2023...We had Preston, Gary, Enagbare already in house....luxury to draft a high ceiling oober athletic edge.
Tucker Kraft in 2023...Yup I'll list it...but this could bump Tom as the biggest reach of the list. But we drafted a likely high snap guy in the second already, Deguara was still in house as was Davis...going to this position a second time so quickly again was a luxury type pick where the prospect and what your scouting staff saw outweighed the concept of need some if not a decent amount.
Put simply...when Gute and Co. draft what they feel is a high level prospect....it has played out arguably never bad, most of the time great...on the flipside a few times we've arguably done things based on need there are more misses (essentially all third rounders for a long time....but could argue Savage to a degree, Josh Jackson...)
The worst two to make the list is Dillon and Myers.....which all they did was give you multiple years of starts.....
But on this list you have our best edge player, our two best OL under contract that are healthy and a tight end tandem that is doing things NONE have done here and few in the league has.
So who might be the Packer types this draft that could just tempt Gute too much....for the sake of having fun I'll toss out some luxury picks on each day:
Day1
Jer'Zhan Newton or Byron Murphy iDL...both of these two are interior down lineman wrecking machines that just ooze athletic profiles which are hard to describe until you watch the tape. While the 4-3 shift will rely less on bigger nose type plugs (Slaton may see fewer snaps this year than last) mobile and diverse bigguns along the interior will eat. Jer'Zhan IMO should be gone by the time we pick...and Murphy has all the signs of a high prospect but could be touch early to many. We have all pro Clark...and have Slaton, Wooden, Brooks and such but a few of those guys are likely to slide out to end roles more leaving a depth spot on the interior that such a pick this early would for sure be a luxury pick.
Darius Robinson Edge...I've touched on him enough and laid out the logic/argument.....
Jackson Powers-Johnson OC...drafting JPJ would honestly be ironic because Myers got drafted while Lucas Patrick was locked in as the starter....and JPJ would be getting drafted high while Myers is the locked in starter. Would Gute use not only a Day1 pick on a guy that sits a year and doesn't play his best position? OR given JPJ's background at guard just as recently as some in 2022 - would the plan be JPJ possibly RG till Myers proves worthy or not of a contract after 2024. Either way, a center is not a need we must fill right now....but JPJ is a freaking excellent center prospect.
Day2
Xavier Lagette WR.....I hate even putting a wide receiver on this list, but because of our insane track record of second rounders and the topic of the thread being luxury picks Lagette and the next guy I feel are fitting to include. We have legit 5 guys I don't want to impeded their progression for one second....but if Lagette's name is called it would make sense. He's likely to explode on the RAS testing and despite him measuring shorter than his camp claimed - tape doesn't lie he is a jump ball mega giant. Offering a type of receiver that is like a mix of Doubs and Wicks stealing attributes of both but being neither.
Malachi Corley WR...you want a Jayden Reed type comp of a prospect I'd argue look no further than Corley from WKU. Smaller frame, well balanced lightning bolt in short yards make him a YAC beast. If you go four wide and have him and Reed both lined up in the slot GOOD LUCK defenders.
Blake Fisher RT....guys I'm telling you yes Guyton and Mims may be the tops at RT prospects...but it wouldn't shock me one bit if Fisher gets a starting nod this year he grades out as the best RT rookie in the NFL and may even long term be the best one in his class. The ONLY reason he played RT was a guy named Joe Alt...Fisher this year to me on film put together a more consistent year than even Alt did. Massive luxury if we pick because Tom has RT on lock...but imagine a world where you get a RT at or near the level of Tom, have the ability to slide Tom to RG....that's a massive line upgrade and a luxury to have done.
Gabriel Murphy ED/DE....one of the UCLA edge guys that unlike many of the others saw a lot of snaps with his hand in the dirt or inside the tackle. That attribute mixed with how incredibly successful he was at doing so would make him an awesome chess piece for Hefley as we switch bases....and quickly makes the Enagbare injury an after thought despite still having three clear guys ahead of him and maybe Brooks or Wooden too depending.
Fourth Round
Theo Johnson TE....We have Musgrave / Kraft / Simms...the need for an inline TE just simply isn't there - HBack/FB style absolutely...but targeting a TE that is an inline and split out option just is a luxury we don't need at all....so grabbing one early Day 3 would absolutely fit this bill. Theo is a guy that shined at Penn State in every alignment and comes in a better blocker than either Kraft or Musgrave did and arguably by a pretty decent margin. He quickly makes Ben Simms an afterthought.
Historically a few of these are:
Rashan Gary in 2019...we used the 12th overall pick on a guy that wasn't going to even see the field much likely. We had just signed two NFL proven edges in Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith...plus Kyler Fackrell had just had a double digit sack year in 2018.
Elgton Jenkins OC in 2019...we had Corey Linsley...our bookends were locked in...and Jenkins at Ole Miss had only played Tackle before switching to C for them for two years...a lesser degree luxury pick but one which could be argued for sure. He just happened to come in and say to Lane Taylor and Lucas Patrick...sorry but this guard spot is mine....don't forget we also brought Billy Turner in before this draft.
Jordan Love in 2020....massive luxury pick. You have a first ballot HOFer infront of him...likely not going to see the field for years....
AJ Dillon in 2020....We had Aaron Jones. We had Jamaal Williams...Tyler Ervin was signed in March before the draft (he actually played more snaps than Dillon in 2020 then) there was no need or even depth need at RB to go this early.
Josh Myers in 2021...We had Lucas Patrick - who even played like 80%+ of the center snaps in 2021 ready and set.
Zach Tom in 2022...I could make the case for Tom...but his is the biggest stretch...until the 2022 season Runyan and Newman both came in and out the gate looked the part as rookies...many expected one or both to take jumps. Our Tackle position was supposed to be solved with Bakh coming back and Yosh played solid in 2021. Not too mention we had in the third just drafted Rhyan.
Lukas Van Ness in 2023...We had Preston, Gary, Enagbare already in house....luxury to draft a high ceiling oober athletic edge.
Tucker Kraft in 2023...Yup I'll list it...but this could bump Tom as the biggest reach of the list. But we drafted a likely high snap guy in the second already, Deguara was still in house as was Davis...going to this position a second time so quickly again was a luxury type pick where the prospect and what your scouting staff saw outweighed the concept of need some if not a decent amount.
Put simply...when Gute and Co. draft what they feel is a high level prospect....it has played out arguably never bad, most of the time great...on the flipside a few times we've arguably done things based on need there are more misses (essentially all third rounders for a long time....but could argue Savage to a degree, Josh Jackson...)
The worst two to make the list is Dillon and Myers.....which all they did was give you multiple years of starts.....
But on this list you have our best edge player, our two best OL under contract that are healthy and a tight end tandem that is doing things NONE have done here and few in the league has.
So who might be the Packer types this draft that could just tempt Gute too much....for the sake of having fun I'll toss out some luxury picks on each day:
Day1
Jer'Zhan Newton or Byron Murphy iDL...both of these two are interior down lineman wrecking machines that just ooze athletic profiles which are hard to describe until you watch the tape. While the 4-3 shift will rely less on bigger nose type plugs (Slaton may see fewer snaps this year than last) mobile and diverse bigguns along the interior will eat. Jer'Zhan IMO should be gone by the time we pick...and Murphy has all the signs of a high prospect but could be touch early to many. We have all pro Clark...and have Slaton, Wooden, Brooks and such but a few of those guys are likely to slide out to end roles more leaving a depth spot on the interior that such a pick this early would for sure be a luxury pick.
Darius Robinson Edge...I've touched on him enough and laid out the logic/argument.....
Jackson Powers-Johnson OC...drafting JPJ would honestly be ironic because Myers got drafted while Lucas Patrick was locked in as the starter....and JPJ would be getting drafted high while Myers is the locked in starter. Would Gute use not only a Day1 pick on a guy that sits a year and doesn't play his best position? OR given JPJ's background at guard just as recently as some in 2022 - would the plan be JPJ possibly RG till Myers proves worthy or not of a contract after 2024. Either way, a center is not a need we must fill right now....but JPJ is a freaking excellent center prospect.
Day2
Xavier Lagette WR.....I hate even putting a wide receiver on this list, but because of our insane track record of second rounders and the topic of the thread being luxury picks Lagette and the next guy I feel are fitting to include. We have legit 5 guys I don't want to impeded their progression for one second....but if Lagette's name is called it would make sense. He's likely to explode on the RAS testing and despite him measuring shorter than his camp claimed - tape doesn't lie he is a jump ball mega giant. Offering a type of receiver that is like a mix of Doubs and Wicks stealing attributes of both but being neither.
Malachi Corley WR...you want a Jayden Reed type comp of a prospect I'd argue look no further than Corley from WKU. Smaller frame, well balanced lightning bolt in short yards make him a YAC beast. If you go four wide and have him and Reed both lined up in the slot GOOD LUCK defenders.
Blake Fisher RT....guys I'm telling you yes Guyton and Mims may be the tops at RT prospects...but it wouldn't shock me one bit if Fisher gets a starting nod this year he grades out as the best RT rookie in the NFL and may even long term be the best one in his class. The ONLY reason he played RT was a guy named Joe Alt...Fisher this year to me on film put together a more consistent year than even Alt did. Massive luxury if we pick because Tom has RT on lock...but imagine a world where you get a RT at or near the level of Tom, have the ability to slide Tom to RG....that's a massive line upgrade and a luxury to have done.
Gabriel Murphy ED/DE....one of the UCLA edge guys that unlike many of the others saw a lot of snaps with his hand in the dirt or inside the tackle. That attribute mixed with how incredibly successful he was at doing so would make him an awesome chess piece for Hefley as we switch bases....and quickly makes the Enagbare injury an after thought despite still having three clear guys ahead of him and maybe Brooks or Wooden too depending.
Fourth Round
Theo Johnson TE....We have Musgrave / Kraft / Simms...the need for an inline TE just simply isn't there - HBack/FB style absolutely...but targeting a TE that is an inline and split out option just is a luxury we don't need at all....so grabbing one early Day 3 would absolutely fit this bill. Theo is a guy that shined at Penn State in every alignment and comes in a better blocker than either Kraft or Musgrave did and arguably by a pretty decent margin. He quickly makes Ben Simms an afterthought.