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2017 Packers cap situation

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by captainWIMM, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    According to Over The Cap the Packers currently have $8,864,188 of cap space for the 2016 season. Players #52 and #53 as well as the practice squad will result in an additional cap hit of at least $2,073,000 reducing the cap space to $6,791,188. This number doesn´t include injury settlements already reached with five players.

    During the season replacement players for guys being put on injured reserve or the PUP list will reduce the amount of cap space that can be carried over into the 2017 season. Last season Packers players spent a total of 85 weeks on injured reserve which would result in an additional cap hit of at least $2.25 million in 2016 and $2.325 million in ´17. You have to realize that the team was extremely healthy last season though.

    Taking that number into consideration the Packers would be able to roll over $4,541,188 into the 2017 season.

    With the cap projected to increase to $166 million in 2017 the Packers currently are $24,703,253 under the cap for that season. Including the rollover the Packers are projected to have a total of $29,244,441 of cap space in ´17.

    Accounting for another season of replacements for players being put on IR, the 2017 draft class, roster spots #52 and #53 as well as the practice squad that will leave the team with approximately $22 million to spend as long as the team stays healthy over the next two seasons as well.

    Here´s a list of the Packers free agents next offseason:

    Julius Peppers
    Josh Sitton
    T.J. Lang
    Nick Perry
    Jared Cook
    Datone Jones
    Tim Masthay
    Eddie Lacy
    Lerentee McCray
    Don Barclay
    Chris Banjo
    David Bakhtiari
    JC Tretter
    Justin Perillo (RFA)
    Micah Hyde
    Sam Barrington
    Mitchell Henry (ERFA)
    Carl Bradford (ERFA)
    Jay Elliott (RFA)
    Mike Pennel (RFA)
    John Crockett (ERFA)
    Josh Walker (ERFA)
    Joe Thomas (ERFA)
    Brandon Ross (ERFA)
    Derrick Mathews (ERFA)
    Ed Williams (ERFA)
    Jermaine Whitehead (ERFA)
    Chrisitian Ringo (ERFA)
    Robertson Daniel (ERFA)
    Rick Lovato (ERFA)

    Taking a look at that list the team doesn´t have a lot of cap space available to re-sign a lot of the free agents.

    I will update those numbers over the course of the season until the start of free agency next year.
     
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  2. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Nice analysis. Luckily it should be an either/or situation with Peppers and Perry. My guess would be Perry. Sitton and Lang have and will continue to be discussed ad nauseam, but we will likely only retain one or neither depending on the market. That knocks two out of the top four off of the list.

    Masthay could be a non-issue if they go with Mortell this season. I would take that gamble in 2016. How often do you find a capable replacement just prior to free agency?

    There's definitely some hand wringing to do over this, but I still don't see it as a giant come-to-jesus moment approaching. We will take one or two lumps and move on....I hope. Then again, I'm an eternal optimist!
     
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  3. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The biggest problem for sure being only having two outside linebackers under contract for the 2017 season with one of them being Fackrell who has yet to play in the NFL. Guard is the other position I'm concerned about.
     
  4. GreenBaySlacker

    GreenBaySlacker Cheesehead

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    Excelent break down wimm! Im taken back at the length of the list, and the amount we have to spend.... So to say.

    This is brutal.

    Peppers must be gone. I had hoped we would have kept him for a part time role. But i dont see us spending the cap on him.

    The oline is going to be decimated. With sitton, lang, and bahk... Oy. I think keeping one will be splurging. And still losing two is devastating. Which one do we keep?

    Perry or datone? After keeping one of the olinemen we are down to 14 mil or so...each of these guys will be about 6 each i would estimate...? Do we go with elliott and a high rookie instead? Let these two 1st round beasts go??? Oy...

    Cook. So far he has impressed me. He is all business so far. The young guys will respond i bet... But unless he performs a miracle, i cant see us paying him...

    Hyde. Whats he going to make first of all? I would give 4... Not 6 though...

    Because i want to see lacy resigned... Pay him the 6 mil ... Scratch perry and jones if we have to....imo.

    Im going to say 7 mil left with bahk and lacy resigned.....no sitton or lang...no hyde yet... No olbs yet... No tretter or barclay... No ringo or pennell... No bradford or barrington... No cook or purillo yet...no masthay...

    This is brutal... But i think you start with rodgers blind side... And keep the running back who ballances the offense. Then olb is a must...leaving holes all over
     
  5. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The performance of several impending free agents in 2016 will have a huge effect on what's going to happen next offseason. There's absolutely no doubt that some players still on their rookie deals or cheap contracts will have to step up in a significant way for the Packers to continue to perform on a high level.

    Another thing to consider about the 2017 salary cap is that there are multiple players whose release would result in cap savings of more than $1 million.

    Here's a list:

    Rodgers $13.65 million
    Matthews $11.1 million
    Shields $9 million
    Nelson $6.95 million
    Cobb $6.25 million
    Burnett $5.35 million
    Guion $3.333 million
    Daniels $3.2 million
    Bulaga $3.05 million
    Taylor $2.4 million

    Taking a look at this list Shields, Bulaga and Taylor might be expendable depending on the performance of the backups this season.
     
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  6. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    I personally would add Burnett, Guion and possibly Cobb to the expendables.
     
  7. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    IMHO the only one that makes sense might be Shields ~ big cap savings and last year of his contract. Need Bulaga for some sense of OL stability & CM3 for the same reason at OLB. No reason to create turmoil cutting either of our top 2 WR's.

    Shields is the 12th highest paid CB in the NFL and will only be 29 in '17, so still has 3 or 4 solid years left for somebody but doubt he'd extend for (significantly) less than currently making. FYI ~ CB's who've left GB recently are T. Williams at 25th highest paid in the NFL, D. House at 28 and C. Hayward at 34 on the earnings list for CB's. Assuming Gunter, Randall & Rollins keep ascending should be able to keep a solid DB stable.
     
  8. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers don't have the necessary depth at safety and on the defensive line to release either Burnett or Guion after this season. Cobb might make sense as long as Montgomery and Abbrederis prove to be productive in the slot.

    Bulaga might get expendable if Kyle Murphy proves to be a decent right tackle. Absolutely agree cutting Matthews isn't an option at all.
     
  9. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    I don't think Cobb is going anywhere. I expect big things from him this year, and everyone will give Jordy being back all the credit. While that will help, Cobb was playing with 1 good arm much of last year that limited his ability to beat DB's off the line. We saw how it affected Williams as a DB with a bad shoulder, I think it did the same for Cobb, just the opposite side of the ball.
     
  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    This has been rehashed many times in these pages over the past year and a half.

    Camp and preseason has provided little clarity or relief.

    One possibility would be the release of some combination of Masthay, D. Jones and Taylor which would yield up to about $5 mil in cap savings that could be applied to 2017.

    Releasing Masthay in this season's cut downs would yield $1.3 mil in cap savings in 2016 and nothing in 2017 since he'll be a FA after this season. This would be offset by Mortell's $450,000 cap hit in 2016, for a net savings of $850,000. Retaining Masthay has an additional negative in that the replacement process would need to be repeated next season which presents a risk in ending up with a player below Mortell's projected performance. If Mortell performs well, he'd be in line for a long term deal after 2016, so that would cut into the savings. By how much is undetermined.

    Releasing Datone Jones would be another possibility, pending Matthews and Peppers being cleared of PED allegations. Jones is the #4 OLB, and a possible rotational player at DE or 3-tech in nickel in an emergency. He'd be replaceable as the #4 with some combination of McCray, Elliott and Fackrell. That would also reduce the OLB group to 6 players, a good number. Assuming his roster spot would be taken by a minimum salary rookie at a different position would yield about $2 mil in cap savings for this year and nothing for next year since he'll be hitting free agency after this season.

    A third possibility would the recognition that Lane Taylor's 2 year deal was a mistake in thinking he's the Sitton or Lang replacement for 2017. His release would yield $3.25 mil in savings over the next 2 seasons. This would be offset by Barclay's $700,000 cap hit this season. Barclay will be a FA after 2016. Taylor's roster spot would be undetermined for 2017, but the $2.55 mil in savings in addition to the other savings above would allow for resigning an additional FA O-Lineman.

    I don't think losing these 3 players would have any meaningful impact on the team's 2016 performance or won-loss record. Other player releases that would yield meaningful cap savings would cut into the starting and key rotational groups.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers would only gain approximately $1 million in cap savings by releasing Datone Jones as this move would result in dead money of $1 million counting against the cap.
     
  12. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Actually, you and I were both off by about the same amount, so we can split the difference.

    D. Jones total cap hit for 2016 is about $2.5 mil. Dead money from the balance of the signing bonus is about $1 mil. So, the savings would be about $1.5 mil.
     
  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    True, but in the case of Datone being released someone has to take his roster spot. Assuming the Packers would replace him with a rookie earning the minimum the true cap savings would be close to $1 million.
     
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  14. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    All depends on how well Burnett and Hyde play this year. I think there are a couple of big corners that could be viable options to play safety. I'd like to see someone back there that is a turnover machine.
    If Clark, Pennel and Lowry improve over the course of the season I think Guion suddenly becomes very expendable. With 8 draft picks coming I'd expect another one at least to be used on DL depth.
     
  15. GreenBaySlacker

    GreenBaySlacker Cheesehead

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    I would much rather trade one of these guys than flat out release them. Like sheilds for instance... If we do decide to keep hyde and promote gunter, that cap could come from sheilds 9 mil. But we could also net a 2nd round pick possibly...

    This whole situation stinks.
     
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  16. GreenBaySlacker

    GreenBaySlacker Cheesehead

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    Agree
    And i think it would allow us to keep hyde as well.
     
  17. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It took the Packers several years to adequately address the safety position after losing Collins in 2011. There's absolutely no reason to take a gamble on a converted cornerback possibly being able to replace Burnett.

    As of right now the Packers only have three defensive linemen on the roster who have taken a snap at the pro level. Way too early to think about releasing any of them because of rookies who might develop into decent players.

    I would prefer to trade one of these players than release any of them as well but most of the time it doesn't work out that way. There's no chance the Packers are able to acquire a second rounder in return for Shields.
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Time for a refresh:

    http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

    The $35.7 mil cap space for 2017 in the above link assumes a $166 mil league cap plus cap carryover from 2016 (most of which accrued from the Sitton release). The NFL announced in December that they estimate the league cap will be in the $166 - $170 mil range. Let's use the conservative $166 mil as has overthecap.com. (What a deal! Crappy TV ratings and the NFL gets paid more anyway!)

    Current 2017 cap liabilities total $140.3 mil. That covers the 39 players currently under contract for 2017 as listed in the link plus the tiny bit of dead money shown.

    Now, lets look at the necessary subtractions from the $35.7 cap space.

    1) Draftees: in 2016, Clark, Spriggs, Fackrell and Martinez accounted for $3.8 mil in 2016 cap. Below that the guys are pretty close to the rookie minimum and I'll deal with that in a bit. Last year's guys came out of the #27 draft position; this year it will be #29. There's very little cap cost difference between the two positions. On the other hand, with the league cap bumped $11 mil, the rookie salary scale should go up. Long story short, let's round up the cap for the top 4 picks to $4.0 mil to make it easy.

    That brings the roster to 43 players with $31.7 mil cap space left.

    2) 53 man roster: At opening day everybody on the 53 man roster counts against the cap. At a minimum, we need to account for 10 additional players at or near the rookie salary minimum...could be the low draft picks or UDFAs. The rookie minimum for 2017 is $465,000, ergo the cap hit for these 10 players is around $4.7 mil.

    That brings the roster to 53 players with remaining cap of space of $27.0 mil.

    3) Practice squad: They count against the cap. Using last year's pay of $6,9oo per week x 10 players x 17 weeks (yes, they do get paid for the bye week) = about $1.2 mil. We don't always carry 10; then again they also get paid more weeks for the playoffs. Let's leave it at $1.2 mil; it could be a bit higher but I don't know what the weekly pay will be for 2017.

    That leaves $25.8 mil cap.

    4) IR, PS protection, injury settlements: IR guys count against the cap. This past season between Shields, Lacy and Goodson, the Packers had the lions share of $14.2 mil in cap not playing. The Packers also paid a couple PS guys more than minimum. Sandland got the equivalent of rookie minimum for a bit when somebody tried to sign him. There was another who got a little more, but that name escapes me. Injury settlements count too. PS protection and injury settlements (which are usually reserved for low paid players for nominal amounts) are small enough I won't include anything for that).

    So, how much should be kept in reserve for IR guys? If you replace them with just minimum salary rookies, then it's $465,000 per head. I'd say $5 mil is the rock bottom minimum to be kept in reserve for IR. Thompson typically keeps around $10 mil to start the season knowing he can carry over what he doesn't need.

    You know, for all the chatter about injuries, the Packers total of 2 core players and one ST regular on IR is pretty low on the league scale.

    Let's say TT is feeling the heat and goes into FA and and the rock bottom $5 mil. reserve.

    5) For the sake of argument, let's say Shields is released. That's $9 mil in cap savings.

    That brings us to $29.8 mil cap space, covering a full 53 man roster with 14 rookies, full practice squad and a slim $5 mil in reserve.

    Now let's look at who is not among those 53 roster players, i.e., the Packer free agents (and Shields):

    Offense: Lang, Cook, Lacy, Michael, Tretter, Barclay, Allison (exclusive rights), Kerridge (exclusive rights)

    Defense: Shields, Peppers, Perry, Jones, Hyde, Elliott (restricted), Ringo (exclusive rights)

    ST: Goode, Schum (exclusive rights)

    That's a lot of ground to cover with draft picks, $30 mil in cap, and "development" among the 39 already under contract while trying to improve the defense. Of course there's a possibility of a big ticket negotiation. Matthews is a guy often mentioned in these pages. If someone mentions that in response I might comment on how that's easier said than done.

    On the subject of a semi-shutdown corner replacement for Shields, a guy that can play one-on-one against #2 receivers and many #1's while getting burned with tolerable frequency, consider the 20th. ranked CB in average salary for 2016:

    Kareem Jackson, 4 years, $34 mil, average cap $8.5 mil.

    That doesn't leave a lot for everything else in terms of replacing (or re-signing) the value represented in the Packer free agents while also improving the defense.

    I guess I have to say what I said the last 2 years: Thompson needs one helluva draft.

    Postscript: The Packers were confident enough that Taylor could do an adequate job that they took the opportunity to save cap for 2017 in cutting Sitton. Is it not obvious now, with these numbers, cap was a factor in the decision?
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2017
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  19. Poppa San

    Poppa San Beast mode Staff Member Moderator

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    Another reason to not have traded for the $6m CB Tramon Williams at trade deadline this past season.
     
  20. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Frankly, I wasn't aware Williams was on the block. I must have missed that discussion. Other than injury status, I was down to near zero media-following this season outside of what's linked here.

    Let's look at what he would have cost as a rent-a-player, though Thompson does not go in for that:

    His cap hit for 2016 was about $6.981 mil. Cleveland would have been on the hook for $300k of that in signing bonus proration, leaving $6.691 mil in salary. I believe salary splits in trades are prorated over 17 weeks; I'll go with that.

    $6.681 mil / 17 = about $393,000 per week

    The NFL trade deadline was on Nov. 1 with 9 weeks left in the season.

    9 weeks x $393,00 = $3.537 Packer cap hit in 2016.

    If they kept him around for the last year of his contract in 2017, the cap hit would be $7.425 mil, or more like $6.9 mil to the Packers with Cleveland absorbing another $500,000 in deferred signing bonus. If the Packers cut him before 2017 roster bonus time, I believe the $500,000 in 2017 dead cap goes to Cleveland since it accrues from the signing bonus.

    So...renting him for half of the 2016 season would have been the $3.537 mil noted above in cap and cash.

    I have no idea how well he was doing in Cleveland. Not too well I'd guess.

    Yeah, I doubt that would have made much of a difference in the season, but you never know. A butterfly flaps his wings in Thompson's office and Crosby makes the kick, Rip doesn't fumble, and the defense doesn't mail in the rest of the game.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2017
  21. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    I've noticed that the current list of guys in the league whose contracts have expired is very long. I'm not sure what our league standing looks like in terms of cap space availability but I would think that at 45m under for 2017 we'd be at least around the middle of the pack. An awful lot of CB's available.
     
  22. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/
    Packers currently have 12th most cap space at just under $41Mil. I'm assuming that includes the $6 or $7Mil from '16 that was moved forward into '17.

    Once TT re-signs a couple "of his own" (Perry?, Lang?, Tretter?) and allots the $5.5Mil (approx.) for rookie pool that will be reduced significantly. Still enough for a vet FA... but not banking on that no matter how hard I wish.

    Of significance, the bottom 16 players counting towards '17's cap are all minimum salary guys ($460-$540K), that's almost 1/3 of the current roster with 10-15 more rookies to be added after the draft/UDFA. I think it's safe to say we'll be a top-5 youngest team, again.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2017
  23. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    Thanks for tracking that down. I noticed that there are a dozen teams that have more than 60 guys signed which means there are a lot more free agents that will be added to the list. Dallas, Jets and KC have to jettison some salaries as well.
     
  24. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    Last I saw a few days ago, www.spotrac.com and www.overthecap.com had different figures.
    Also, I've been reading different numbers on where the cap will end up.
     
  25. Poppa San

    Poppa San Beast mode Staff Member Moderator

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    I believe teams can carry up to 90 players during the off season. The 51 most expensive count against the cap until the final roster cut down to 53. Most of the 90 that won't make the 53 come out of UDFA and camp bodies. The rest are washed out vets, fringe players, or cap casualties. The last happen either now or the final week of the preseason.
     
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