Wide Receiver Options

[sschind]

You fail to understand that two receivers combining to put up the same numbers as Adams doesn't equal his production.

I agree with you. If it takes 2 guys to do what 1 guy did before that leaves you one guy short. I think the idea many have is that all the pass catchers (WRs, TEs, RBs) will step up and the results will be that as a whole the production in the passing game will be the same. I'm not sure that trying to force them all to step up by simply throwing to them more is going to work. They have to be able to accept the challenge.

 

[tynimiller]

4,000 yards passing spread between 18 guys
4,000 yards passing spread between 16 guys
4,000 yards passing spread between 12 guys
4,000 yards passing spread between 24 guys

 

[sschind]

4,000 yards passing spread between 18 guys
4,000 yards passing spread between 16 guys
4,000 yards passing spread between 12 guys
4,000 yards passing spread between 24 guys

Its not as simple as having 24 guys to throw to. Those 24 need to be able to catch the ball. If they can't you aren't getting 4,000 yards passing.

 

[tynimiller]

Its not as simple as having 24 guys to throw to. Those 24 need to be able to catch the ball. If they can't you aren't getting 4,000 yards passing.

LOL you're missing the point of the post...why did you ignore the other scenarios?

I don't give a rats *** personally if we don't have a single receiver over 1,000 yards. Get me wins and be productive - and I expect Rodgers to be productive, slightly lower completion percentage because he isn't a fool that is gonna sling it around but I don't care if the main 7 (as of now) produce 2,500 yards and Watkins is 1,200 of that or 12 of that honestly.

*2500 was a number plucked out of the thin air...make that be 3500 yards, 2800 yards, 5000 yards for all I care.

 

[OldSchool101]

You fail to understand that two receivers combining to put up the same numbers as Adams doesn't equal his production.

You are just acting sour. Get over it Adams is gone. He doesn’t even miss you Captain.

As long as the Packers achieve at, near or above ~4,000 passing.. Adams departure will have been a massive, net positive.

We were forced by individual player mutiny to go younger, faster and most importantly much, much cheaper. You can thank Davante Adams for forcing that hand. He was fully coherent when he turned down a higher offer from us. Let’s be abundantly clear about that fact.

 

[tynimiller]

I will say this, Rodgers could produce all time numbers this year for him in every major category - eclipsing 4,643 yards (2011) higher than 70.7% completion % (2020), over 48 TDs (2020), throw zero picks...have a QBR over his best 83.8 (2011) and a rating over 122.5 (2011) and folks will still say our passing attack is an utter failure unless we have a wideout put up WR1 numbers.

 

[Dantés]

Your just acting sour. Get over it Adams is gone. He doesn’t even miss you Captain.

As long as the Packers achieve at, near or above ~4,000 passing.. Adams departure will have been a massive, net positive.

We were forced by individual player mutiny to go younger, faster and most importantly much, much cheaper. You can thank Davante Adams for forcing that hand. He was fully coherent when he turned down a higher offer from us. Let’s be abundantly clear about that fact.

I am happy for the way things turned out, but I don't think this is necessarily true.

The raw production could be similar without the actual efficiency/effectiveness of the offense being as good.

Then again, the reverse is also possible as well. But I don't think it's as simple as piecing the yardage back together. Adams brought a lot of unique skills to the offense and they need to figure out how to replace them or find ways to be effective without them.

 

[Don Barclay]

Man, I don't know....receivers really do have to get open and there's nobody with Davante's chops at release from the line or in routes. Like, GB offense and Rodgers' stats were otherworldly in 2014 -- then Jordy goes down preseason 2015, and with Davante, peak Randall Cobb, and James Jones leading the way, the passing attack seriously sputtered through the 2015 season. I know it's not exactly apples-to-apples, and yeah maybe we scored big in the draft, but to me it seems totally reasonable to expect an equivalent/proportional step back this year compared with 2014-2015. Not saying it's a sure thing, but to say Captain is "just acting sour" feels way off the mark.

 

[OldSchool101]

The raw production could be similar without the actual efficiency/effectiveness of the offense being as good.

Absolutely. Yet after considering that comparison I agree you are right.
I’m being ultra conservative in Adams favor and I’m totally in error. We’d need about a 1,000+ passing yard loss to even touch an argument he’s better than the following group.

I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions the players that could be signed because of the money we did not pay Adams.
Not to mention pick #22 overall.


That’s:

Rasul Douglas
Devondre Campbell,
Robert Tonyan
Sammy Watkins
Christian Watson
Quay Walker
Jarren Reed

In exchange for one player. #17

I don’t think #17 Having a 2,000 yard season would come close to equalling the cumulative production of that group.

To Adams favor there would be a group of UDFA types or mostly lower level performers replacing this group playing alongside him. However, we haven’t even talked about the risk of putting eggs in 1 basket. What happens if Adams can’t play for any reason? Also what about the replacement players salaries combined if you didn’t sign that group I listed?
What’s that like another $6-7M minimum?
To really be be fair? we could add Julio to that list also

 

[tynimiller]

Man, I don't know....receivers really do have to get open and there's nobody with Davante's chops at release from the line or in routes. Like, GB offense and Rodgers' stats were otherworldly in 2014 -- then Jordy goes down preseason 2015, and with Davante, peak Randall Cobb, and James Jones leading the way, the passing attack seriously sputtered through the 2015 season. I know it's not exactly apples-to-apples, and yeah maybe we scored big in the draft, but to me it seems totally reasonable to expect an equivalent/proportional step back this year compared with 2014-2015. Not saying it's a sure thing, but to say Captain is "just acting sour" feels way off the mark.

Oh for sure, the issue is it is a two way street, and yet Captain as best I can remember believes one way streets are a more efficient type of travel LOL (just teasing you some bud!).

 

[tynimiller]

Absolutely. Yet after considering that comparison I agree you are right.
I’m being ultra conservative in Adams favor and I’m totally in error. We’d need about a 1,000+ passing yard loss to even touch an argument he’s better than the following group.

I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions the players that could be signed because of the money we did not pay Adams.
Not to mention pick #22 overall.


That’s:

Rasul Douglas
Devondre Campbell,
Robert Tonyan
Sammy Watkins
Christian Watson
Quay Walker
Jarren Reed

In exchange for one player. #17

I don’t think #17 Having a 2,000 yard season would come close to equalling the cumulative production of that group.

To Adams favor there would be a group of UDFA types or mostly lower level performers replacing this group playing alongside him. However, we haven’t even talked about the risk of putting eggs in 1 basket. What happens if Adams can’t play for any reason? Also what about the replacement players salaries combined if you didn’t sign that group I listed?
What’s that like another $6-7M minimum?
To really be be fair? we could add Julio to that list also

Campbell was going to be signed and Adams tag in place FTR.

 

[OldSchool101]

Campbell was going to be signed and Adams tag in place FTR.

True. From a chronological view that argument does hold.

Now, the other half of that argument needs addressing. who do we let go?

Clear me $10m off the roster budget and I’ll agree. I Want names though.

 

[tynimiller]

From a chronically that argument holds.

Now, the other half of that argument needs addressing. who do we let go?

Let go? Pretty much a ton of guys don't come back that are or were signed like Reed, Rasul, Watkins and then of course most likely lose one of the two between Quay and Wyatt as we don't have the extra one, and Watson trade cannot happen as we don't have the draft capital to do it....not having Adams essentially made Quay, Watson, Reed, Rasul, Watkins and Tonyan able to be here.

We also most likely see a few more "pushing" and "reworking" of cap hits to have breathing room...handcuffing us to more dead money in the future then we already have.

 

[OldSchool101]

Let go? Pretty much a ton of guys don't come back that are or were signed like Reed, Rasul, Watkins and then of course most likely lose one of the two between Quay and Wyatt as we don't have the extra one, and Watson trade cannot happen as we don't have the draft capital to do it....not having Adams essentially made Quay, Watson, Reed, Rasul, Watkins and Tonyan able to be here.

We also most likely see a few more "pushing" and "reworking" of cap hits to have breathing room...handcuffing us to more dead money in the future then we already have.

I think we’re saying the same thing. I thought you meant .., oh just forget it. Lol

 

[Dantés]

Absolutely. Yet after considering that comparison I agree you are right.
I’m being ultra conservative in Adams favor and I’m totally in error. We’d need about a 1,000+ passing yard loss to even touch an argument he’s better than the following group.

I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions the players that could be signed because of the money we did not pay Adams.
Not to mention pick #22 overall.


That’s:

Rasul Douglas
Devondre Campbell,
Robert Tonyan
Sammy Watkins
Christian Watson
Quay Walker
Jarren Reed

In exchange for one player. #17

I don’t think #17 Having a 2,000 yard season would come close to equalling the cumulative production of that group.

To Adams favor there would be a group of UDFA types or mostly lower level performers replacing this group playing alongside him. However, we haven’t even talked about the risk of putting eggs in 1 basket. What happens if Adams can’t play for any reason? Also what about the replacement players salaries combined if you didn’t sign that group I listed?
What’s that like another $6-7M minimum?
To really be be fair? we could add Julio to that list also

The overall team is better by virtue of trading Adams and reinvesting those draft/cap resources. On that I agree unequivocally.

 

[OldSchool101]

The overall team is better by virtue of trading Adams and reinvesting those draft/cap resources. On that I agree unequivocally.

Yeah I know it’s not a perfect science to matching production though. Earlier Point taken.

My main argument is this is a team sport. No 1 player is irreplaceable (except maybe Rodgers) it’s the sum of its individual parts.

 

[sschind]

LOL you're missing the point of the post...why did you ignore the other scenarios?

I don't give a rats *** personally if we don't have a single receiver over 1,000 yards. Get me wins and be productive - and I expect Rodgers to be productive, slightly lower completion percentage because he isn't a fool that is gonna sling it around but I don't care if the main 7 (as of now) produce 2,500 yards and Watkins is 1,200 of that or 12 of that honestly.

*2500 was a number plucked out of the thin air...make that be 3500 yards, 2800 yards, 5000 yards for all I care.

And you are missing the point of my post. I have said many times that I don't care who has how many yards. All that matters to me is wins as well.

You seem to think that the talent level of the pass catchers does not matter. If Rodgers throws them the ball they will catch it and the numbers will be fine. If that's the case why did we waste a second and a round pick on WR. We could have gone with one in the 4th, 5th and 6th and we would have been fine.

Thats not even taking into consideration if they will be able to get open enough for Rodgers to throw to them which is something else you seem pretty certain they will be able to do. They may and if they do that's great. I'm not saying they can't I'm just not as optimistic as you are that all is well.

I will say this, Rodgers could produce all time numbers this year for him in every major category - eclipsing 4,643 yards (2011) higher than 70.7% completion % (2020), over 48 TDs (2020), throw zero picks...have a QBR over his best 83.8 (2011) and a rating over 122.5 (2011) and folks will still say our passing attack is an utter failure unless we have a wideout put up WR1 numbers.

I can guarantee you if the Packers passing attack looks like this no one will consider it a failure.

 

[tynimiller]

And you are missing the point of my post. I have said many times that I don't care who has how many yards. All that matters to me is wins as well.

You seem to think that the talent level of the pass catchers does not matter. If Rodgers throws them the ball they will catch it and the numbers will be fine. If that's the case why did we waste a second and a round pick on WR. We could have gone with one in the 4th, 5th and 6th and we would have been fine.

Thats not even taking into consideration if they will be able to get open enough for Rodgers to throw to them which is something else you seem pretty certain they will be able to do. They may and if they do that's great. I'm not saying they can't I'm just not as optimistic as you are that all is well.


I can guarantee you if the Packers passing attack looks like this no one will consider it a failure.

Lol I was more tongue and cheek saying the last part but honestly some sound like this - not you specifically but some.

 

[sschind]

I'mAbsolutely. Yet after considering that comparison I agree you are right.
I’m being ultra conservative in Adams favor and I’m totally in error. We’d need about a 1,000+ passing yard loss to even touch an argument he’s better than the following group.

I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions the players that could be signed because of the money we did not pay Adams.
Not to mention pick #22 overall.


That’s:

Rasul Douglas
Devondre Campbell,
Robert Tonyan
Sammy Watkins
Christian Watson
Quay Walker
Jarren Reed

In exchange for one player. #17

I don’t think #17 Having a 2,000 yard season would come close to equalling the cumulative production of that group.

To Adams favor there would be a group of UDFA types or mostly lower level performers replacing this group playing alongside him. However, we haven’t even talked about the risk of putting eggs in 1 basket. What happens if Adams can’t play for any reason? Also what about the replacement players salaries combined if you didn’t sign that group I listed?
What’s that like another $6-7M minimum?
To really be be fair? we could add Julio to that list also

I agree with everything you have said. I prefer what we have now to what we would have looked like if we had resigned Adams. I've said said that many times. On the other hand its a good thing we were able improve the rest of the team because it is reasonable to expect the passing numbers to decrease given the reduced talent level with the loss of Adams.

 

[sschind]

Lol I was more tongue and cheek saying the last part but honestly some sound like this - not you specifically but some.

Yes, some people will take anything to the extreme.

Despite what I said I am optimistic. Not just for the team as a whole as I alluded to in my response to Oldschool but for the WRs as well. I think that the WRs we have now are a better as a group than those we have had in a long time, minus Adams of course. A bunch of 5s 6s 7s rather than a 10 and a bunch of 4s and 5s (note the numbers are not meant to represent any specific WR I'm just using them to illustrate my point).

I like Watkins. I'm hoping he can stay healthy and if he does I think he will surprise a few people. I think Watson and Doubs will contribute more than some people think as rookies. I think Lazard is still getting better and I think Cobb will be the glue holds the whole group together and will develop as a leader with more than a few clutch performances. In fact if I had to put money on any of theses guys living up to my expectations it would be Randall Cobb.

Having said this I fully understand the questions that come with theses guys. Will Watkins stay healthy? Will Watson and/or Doubs catch on quickly enough to contribute this year, or ever. Will Lazard continue to develop. Will Cobb be the cagey veteran or will his age finally catch up with him?

Moving on to the other pass catchers The TE position has even more questions and less ability than the WRs. It all hinges on Tonyan. The RBs role in the passing game is the only part of it that I am not concerned about. I think Jones and Dillon will be stellar in all aspects of their game.

Adams was the only WR from last year that I wouldn't have had a question about. Losing that certainty IMO makes it logical to have concerns about the passing attack.

Much of my optimism comes from Rodgers ability and from MLF and my confidence that he will come up with a plan that best utilizes the talents he has at his disposal.

So yes, I am optimistic but I also have my concerns.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm optimistic because we have #12 - if we had this same group with nearly anyone else I wouldn't be. But I have full faith that by about week six, seven or eight our stride will be hitting and flow will be there along with production.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

A lot of it is based on a significant sample size when his WR corps is depleted he has still produced. I think it is equally mind-boggling to not see there is a valid reasoning that he still will based on his past. Now I will say if it wasn't for having Lazard and Cobb still here I'd be more worried than I already am....but in all honesty I expect his completion percentage to be down, especially early on as we will see him throw to the feet/away rather than risk interceptions more than past few seasons for sure - but I don't think Rodgers will allow a MASSIVE hiccup to happen production wise to be sustained. He never has.

The Packers passing offense has been successful without Adams with Rodgers targeting running backs on more than half of his attempts. I guess if the offense needs to rely on that for an entire season teams will be able to figure out a way to contain it.

As a side note, if you expect Rodgers' completion percentage to drop you understand that the passing offense won't be as effective even if he throws for the same amount of yards, don't you???

I am excited to see this year exactly that. Instead of over-targeting someone. One reason I do not want to sign Julio Jones or some other number 1.

Rodgers actually over-targeted running backs when Adams wasn't playing. Maybe we should get rid of them as well.

I don't care if the Packers feature a 1,000 yard receiver either but it doesn't make sense to solely look at the total amount of passing yards at all.

You are just acting sour. Get over it Adams is gone. He doesn’t even miss you Captain.

As long as the Packers achieve at, near or above ~4,000 passing.. Adams departure will have been a massive, net positive.

It doesn't make sense to solely look at the total amount of passing yards at all.

What if Rodgers throws some pick 6s because he expects his receiver to be in a different spot in games the team loses by seven or less points? What if the offense has to settle for field goals more often in the red zone instead of scoring touchdowns?

As a side note, I'm not sour about Adams being gone at all. I understand the Packers didn't have any other choice and think Gutekunst did a good job of getting as much in return for him as possible. In addition I'm well aware not having to pay Adams made it a lot easier to improve other positions on the roster.

It's naive to not be worried about the pass catchers on the team at this point though.

I will say this, Rodgers could produce all time numbers this year for him in every major category - eclipsing 4,643 yards (2011) higher than 70.7% completion % (2020), over 48 TDs (2020), throw zero picks...have a QBR over his best 83.8 (2011) and a rating over 122.5 (2011) and folks will still say our passing attack is an utter failure unless we have a wideout put up WR1 numbers.

You know that I normally have a ton of respect for your opinion but that post is utter BS.

I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions the players that could be signed because of the money we did not pay Adams.

Just for the record, the Packers could have made it work to sign all of the players they did even with Adams around for this season. It's true the cap situation would have been way worse than it's now in future years though. In addition they would have been able to draft only one of Walker, Wyatt and Watson.

 

[tynimiller]

You know that I normally have a ton of respect for your opinion but that post is utter BS.

LOL as I've admitted, that was more tongue in cheek then anything.

To your other point, I do concur as I've expressed before to see the passing attack take some knocks and growing pains early - that said I truly believe Rodgers is ready to prove to the doubters that he is the baddest QB in the league still, and he will drag this team and the WR room to wins if he has to. I have less doubts than some because I truly believe Rodgers is that freaking good - not because I think the WR is anything more than what most do (however I am higher on Lazard than many).

 

[OldSchool101]

I agree with everything you have said. I prefer what we have now to what we would have looked like if we had resigned Adams. I've said said that many times. On the other hand its a good thing we were able improve the rest of the team because it is reasonable to expect the passing numbers to decrease given the reduced talent level with the loss of Adams.

Yeah and as long as there is not a major passing game regression we should be fine on Offense. My guess is we see a slight uptick at rushing yards per carry as we really were substandard for our talented backfield in 2021. That increased competition at OL (3 more draft picks) should conceivably produce us some better Run blocking.

I see a very slight regression in passing TD and yardage, but should be offset by a couple hundred more yards rushing. Not a huge swing, but just enough to keep both phases feet off the teeter totter ground.

One would think we might get a little scare on the passing front early season (2-3 game slight regression) Yet as long as we grind out a few early Wins? time will be on our side as far as that passing game. By mid-season, I think we see things clicking more.

Adams will be sorely missed, he’s like losing Scottie Pippen, but it’s Michael Jordan that fueled those Championships and as long as Rodgers is standing we’re going to Win more than we lose. Who’s the next Dennis Rodman? Possibly our Defense? Go up and get that ball and get it back to Michael

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree with you. If it takes 2 guys to do what 1 guy did before that leaves you one guy short. I think the idea many have is that all the pass catchers (WRs, TEs, RBs) will step up and the results will be that as a whole the production in the passing game will be the same. I'm not sure that trying to force them all to step up by simply throwing to them more is going to work. They have to be able to accept the challenge.

MLF has to create game plans that takes advantage of these different players. Should be easier for veterans. Rookie's are still trying to figure out their strengths and areas for work at the NFL level.

We're all gonna be better off not making comparisons to Adams. There is no comparison. He's gone and this is a new WR group.

It is gonna be interesting to see how Adams does in Vegas.