OldSchool101
Pack
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- Aug 16, 2014
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I agree partially. On the face of it we’ve been unstable or as I like to call it Defensive Porpoising. We’ve played good teams good and bad teams bad etc.I'm not worried about Love, although I have a sinking feeling we're going to see a pick. I'm more concerned about the defense not being able to stop Dallas' offense. But, got to remember there are no expectations here.
That said. Something I’ve been monitoring for the last 10+ years that had held true are strength ratings. In postseason, if you gave TWO equal teams, lean to the one that has a better SOS (real time). Also turnover ratio and other factors, but strength is key. That concept that you can be a 8-4 team in the SEC and move to the ACC and be
11-1. It’s really important and it gets more pronounced against the better teams (Dallas etc). It’s held true for about 80% of the postseason since I’ve tracked it. Not fail proof, but a solid predictor in postseason. Another one is turnover ratio, which we’re not good at this year, but we’ve gotten more normalized as the season wore on.
Dallas had an easy schedule, just like Green Bay did and a hair worse SOS. they are the ONLY NFC team left with a worse SOS. it’s slight but in our favor.
The Detroit Defense just played good @ AT&T.. but they are NOT a top 10 Defense by nearly any metric. The Packers are about the same and maybe a hair better. That part we are both worried about comes down to game plan and execution. However we 100% can do what a Detroit did imo. Imo We’re a slightly above average D, so it comes down to are we ascending or descending? I’m a little concerned with J’aire being out though I won’t lie.
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