The Case for Paying Aaron Jones

[Deleted member 6794]

That last sentence is why you have to think about releasing Bak. He cannot make up for basically dismantling a team that looks like they play very well together. I am not optimistic that players are going to take less money than they are already under contract for and restructuring is just kicking the can down the road.

Bakhtiari will be a free agent after this season, therefore the Packers can't release him to save any cap space as currently he doesn't count a single cent against their cap in 2021.

I have posted a list of possible cut candidates in a different thread already.

I'm well aware that restructuring contracts results in cap hits being pushed back but the Packers most likely won't have any choice with the cap dropping for next season.

Even at $8M over the cap, I imagine the Packers will find themselves in better shape than a lot of teams. I even saw talk of the cap dropping down as low as $140 M, imagine that.

It's true that there are currently 10 teams having already more cap space allocated towards players for 2021 than the Packers.

As a side note, the league and players association agreed that the cap won't drop below $175 million for next season.

That's obviously true and I'd hope no one is trying to argue that rb is more important than lt but my point is, I think they can have both if they are willing to lose king, linsley and williams and most of the rest of their ufas. As well as cut kirksey and maybe Wagner if you have to but I think he's more valuable as the swing, than kirksey with the emergence of Barnes and hopefully martin soon. Then you restructure Rodgers.

Those moves would result in the Packers having less than $19 million in cap space to use next offseason. They could fit both Bakhtiari and Jones under the cap in that scenario but might not be able to make any other moves.

To replace linsley you have a ton of options between patrick, Hansen, runyun, stepaniak, and even jenkins if say you liked Patrick and runyan better at the guards.

Jenkins is too valuable at guard to move him to center.

But sullivan is an rfa I believe and thus relatively inexpensive to retain and capable in the nickel role

Sullivan is actually an exclusive rights free agent, meaning the Packers can re-sign him to a one-year, minimum deal.

 

[thequick12]

Those moves would result in the Packers having less than $19 million in cap space to use next offseason. They could fit both Bakhtiari and Jones under the cap in that scenario but might not be able to make any other moves.



Jenkins is too valuable at guard to move him to center.



Sullivan is actually an exclusive rights free agent, meaning the Packers can re-sign him to a one-year, minimum deal.

Yes I understand that by choosing bakh and jones Gutey would be left to almost solely use the draft to improve the team for 2021. But I'm fine with that...I think you keep your best players from what looks to be a strong super bowl contender. And no one else on that list comes close to bakh or jones. In fact it's Rodgers, bakh, adams, z. Smith, alexander, jones who are the packers only blue chip players and in my opinion in that order of importance

I'll put together my actual complete plan it puts the team more than 19 m below that 175m threshold.

You might be right about jenkins but I wasn't suggesting they play him at center as a first option. I was simply offering all possibilities to get your top 5 on the field.

And that's good so sullivan can be back on the cheap basically if the Packers choose because he can't negotiate with any other team.

 

[thequick12]

That last sentence is why you have to think about releasing Bak. He cannot make up for basically dismantling a team that looks like they play very well together. I am not optimistic that players are going to take less money than they are already under contract for and restructuring is just kicking the can down the road.

You're ignoring one very important thing with your last sentence...it doesn't matter that you're just kicking the can down the road because this is a 1 year problem. The 2021 cap will be no lower than 175 m and the 2022 cap will likely be in the neighborhood of of 210 million.

2020 cap is 198.2 m a 10 m increase over 2019. The nfl is set to sign the biggest tv deal of all time prior to the 2022 season so it's possible 210m could even end up low but it's likely a good estimate.

Restructuring Aaron Rodgers contract, if he'll agree to it, is the way to go as you'd have to be insane to think he's not worth the money. So changing his base to signing bonus makes perfect sense and isn't much of a risk

 

[thequick12]

Using information from overthecap and sprotrac

The Packers have 180,384,185 already on the books for 2021.

Assuming cap is 175 m, there's a chance it could be higher as a lot of teams are now allowing fans. Roll over the 8m from 2020 ( credit cap wimm previous post) so that's 183 million.

First we release the following players:

Dean "would be a good backup" Lowry 3.3 million
Kristian Kirksey 6 million

Possible release:

Rick Wagner 4.25 million

* If additional cap space is needed this would be an easy place to pick up a nice chunk. Although I'm not sure you can get another competent swing for that money and I'm still notsnot entirely soldtsold on turner so this move after the first 2

Restructure Rodgers

I'm not sure of the exact savings but by my calculations the Packers could save about 16 m against the 2020 cap but Rodgers cap hit would obviously rise for 2022 and 2023. But so will the salary cap so it's really a push there.

Those 3 moves alone would have the Packers slightly over 155 million in liabilities for 2021. So they'd be 33 million below the cap at that point. Or if you cut Wagner over 37 million

I think that's plenty to fit in new contracts for bakh and jones. And you're not really losing much as kirksey can be replaced by barnes and Martin and Lowry by keke and a relatively high draft pick, which the dline has been in need of for awhile.

In this scenario you essentially keep your entire super bowl contending roster together moving forward...

 

[tynimiller]

If releasing Wagner isn't in the plans for someone I don't listen LOL...

 

[thequick12]

If releasing Wagner isn't in the plans for someone I don't listen LOL...

Haha ok here you go...I'm sure there's other guys I might cut but pretty much did this off the top of my head

 

[tynimiller]

Posted this while back, there are a few others you could scalp a few bucks here and there for as well..

Now also factor in possible cuts to save $, you have:

Lowry - due 6.3M but $3M in dead
Ricky Wagner - Due $6M, only 1.75 Dead
Christian Kirksey - Due $8M, $2M dead....if Barnes and Martin (Summers too) make Gute feel better about 2021 Kirksey could be a cap cut.
Oren Burks - Due $1.15M, $205K dead....he is an easy nearly million gain by cutting.
Billy Turner - Due $8.05M, $4.5 dead cap

 

[PikeBadger]

This has been hashed out quite a bit but over numerous pages and even threads....in essence we need to resign or lose the following "bigger" UFA names in 2021:

Bahk
Aaron Jones
Linsley
King
Jamaal Williams

Lesser or Most agree not as pivotal:
Lane Taylor
Ervin
Marcedes Lewis


Now also factor in possible cuts to save $, you have:

Lowry - due 6.3M but $3M in dead
Ricky Wagner - Due $6M, only 1.75 Dead
Christian Kirksey - Due $8M, $2M dead....if Barnes and Martin (Summers too) make Gute feel better about 2021 Kirksey could be a cap cut.
Oren Burks - Due $1.15M, $205K dead....he is an easy nearly million gain by cutting.
Billy Turner - Due $8.05M, $4.5 dead cap


The Smiths, Amos also start costing crazy amounts more from 2020 to 2021...those three guys go up nearly or around $10M together.


That cluster of 5 guys at the top, If we resign Bahk and Jones we lose the following three and face some other cuts elsewhere too most likely. Guys like Sullivan would need contracts, a guy like Lazard also needs a contract....

I've shared I'm torn...I don't want to lose Bahk and Jones both...but at what cost to the rest of the roster do we do this?? Linsley gone is big chunk of change off the books...cutting Wagner gets us about $4M more...throw in Burks also...but we cannot afford IMO to lose Turner also...we cannot afford to have resigning them both cost us King and risk an inability to resign Jaire in the future and Sullivan to something for 2021....too big of a gap/hole. Kirksey is another one...do we roll our dice and save money for the now and bank on Barnes/Martin/Summers+likely 2021 draftee/UDFA?

This is all a tough call and honestly I don't think there is a clear answer...happy I'm not the one burdened with the call...

This is a good list of possible cuts to save cap space. I’ll throw a couple more names out there as possible.
Preston Smith and Adrian Amos may be the way to go as we possibly would have to cut fewer guys from your list. A lot depends on if we have guys to replace them adequately. I’m a little nervous about bludgeoning the offensive line or any position group. Tricky stuff indeed. By end of season the staff will know more about the development of young players and who might be capable of increased roles in 21.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Capt is banned

Dont expect a reply

Again ? or still ? I`m confused now.

 

[Mondio]

Again ? or still ? I`m confused now.

it was only a week i think, he's been around

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In fact it's Rodgers, bakh, adams, z. Smith, alexander, jones who are the packers only blue chip players and in my opinion in that order of importance

Don't forget Kenny Clark, who the Packers recently signed a 4 year $70M with.

 

[longtimefan]

Again ? or still ? I`m confused now.

No?

Was b4

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Okay. Sorry

 

[PikeBadger]

Okay. Sorry

Man, you’re really late to the show. Step into a time warp last week?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Man, you’re really late to the show. Step into a time warp last week?

I`ve been away and I`m old......sue me !

 

[Mondio]

I`ve been away and I`m old......sue me !

surprised you were able to remember your way back

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

surprised you were able to remember your way back

Smart ***......lol

 

[El Guapo]

Will the captain be busted down in rank to a first lieutenant as well?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You're ignoring one very important thing with your last sentence...it doesn't matter that you're just kicking the can down the road because this is a 1 year problem. The 2021 cap will be no lower than 175 m and the 2022 cap will likely be in the neighborhood of of 210 million.

That's not true at all as the league and players association agreed to spread the losses in revenue this season over a four-year period regarding the salary cap. Therefore it's highly unlikely the cap will raise that much for the 2022 season.

Using information from overthecap and sprotrac

The Packers have 180,384,185 already on the books for 2021.

Assuming cap is 175 m, there's a chance it could be higher as a lot of teams are now allowing fans. Roll over the 8m from 2020 ( credit cap wimm previous post) so that's 183 million.

First we release the following players:

Dean "would be a good backup" Lowry 3.3 million
Kristian Kirksey 6 million

Possible release:

Rick Wagner 4.25 million

* If additional cap space is needed this would be an easy place to pick up a nice chunk. Although I'm not sure you can get another competent swing for that money and I'm still notsnot entirely soldtsold on turner so this move after the first 2

Restructure Rodgers

I'm not sure of the exact savings but by my calculations the Packers could save about 16 m against the 2020 cap but Rodgers cap hit would obviously rise for 2022 and 2023. But so will the salary cap so it's really a push there.

Those 3 moves alone would have the Packers slightly over 155 million in liabilities for 2021. So they'd be 33 million below the cap at that point. Or if you cut Wagner over 37 million

First of all your math is off as releasing Lowry and Kirksey as well as restructuring Rodgers would leave the Packers approximately $29 million under the cap, $33 million if they decide to move on from Wagner as well.

You're completely missing a very important point though. The Packers would have only 36 players under contract in your scenario, meaning they would need to spend at least $13 million on 17 players to fill the roster as well as 12 practice squad guys. Of course that number will end up significantly higher as draft picks need to be signed and the Packers definitely won't fill the backend of their roster solely with first year players not making more than the league minimum.

It might still be enough to re-sign both Bakhtiari and Jones but it would leave the team without much wiggle room to make any other moves.

Preston Smith and Adrian Amos may be the way to go as we possibly would have to cut fewer guys from your list. A lot depends on if we have guys to replace them adequately.

In my opinion it wouldn't be smart to release either Preston or Amos. The Packers might get desperate and approach them about restructuring their contracts as well though.

 

[tynimiller]

First of all your math is off as releasing Lowry and Kirksey as well as restructuring Rodgers would leave the Packers approximately $29 million under the cap, $33 million if they decide to move on from Wagner as well.

You're completely missing a very important point though. The Packers would have only 36 players under contract in your scenario, meaning they would need to spend at least $13 million on 17 players to fill the roster as well as 12 practice squad guys. Of course that number will end up significantly higher as draft picks need to be signed and the Packers definitely won't fill the backend of their roster solely with first year players not making more than the league minimum.

It might still be enough to re-sign both Bakhtiari and Jones but it would leave the team without much wiggle room to make any other moves.

This x100. Is it possible to do it, sure...does it weaken the team as a whole? I'm firmly in the camp of without question. Even just resigning one of these two premierely skilled players is going to come at a cost, every contract inked does.

So sure, folks claiming just resign them, make it work with King also...have to realize you're literally going to have nearly two dozen players that will need to be UDFA or minimum salaray type guys on the roster....

Every single contract decision causes a ripple into the rest of the roster...other contracts and future discussions.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Packers might get desperate and approach them about restructuring their contracts as well though.

I think this is the way that most teams are going to "survive" the next couple of years under lower than predicted salary caps. Veterans on big contracts will be asked to restructure them for the short term good of the team and the long term financial security of the veteran. But that won't stop a lot of teams from shedding overpaid veterans. The biggest financial impacts will be seen on new contracts and free agents. It will be a buyers market, especially once all the cap fat teams spend on the big named players, that only they can afford. I think we will see vets that in a normal year might garner a $3-5M one year deal signing for just above vet min.

 

[PikeBadger]

I think this is the way that most teams are going to "survive" the next couple of years under lower than predicted salary caps. Veterans on big contracts will be asked to restructure them for the short term good of the team and the long term financial security of the veteran. But that won't stop a lot of teams from shedding overpaid veterans. The biggest financial impacts will be seen on new contracts and free agents. It will be a buyers market, especially once all the cap fat teams spend on the big named players, that only they can afford. I think we will see vets that in a normal year might garner a $3-5M one year deal signing for just above vet min.

It’s going to be a very bad year for most guys with expiring contracts. The NFL middle class is going to shrink drastically imo.
It’s almost going to look like owner collusion out there.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It’s going to be a very bad year for most guys with expiring contracts. The NFL middle class is going to shrink drastically imo.
It’s almost going to look like owner collusion out there.

I won't be shedding a tear for any of the players who have to go from $5M to $1M/year, especially in light of what most people have endured over the last year.

I am probably in the minority, but I welcome a drop in NFL salaries. There comes a point when enough is enough and $10M a year way crossed that line for me a long time ago and now its getting to $40M? People can save their lectures (for me anyway) on the longevity of a professional athlete and how the market warrants the pay structure. Oh and yes, I fully admit to being a hypocrite for not liking it, yet still following the Packers.

 

[Dantés]

We should just ask the government to nationalize our industries and decide what everyone deserves to be paid. It would be great!

 

[GleefulGary]

We should just ask the government to nationalize our industries and decide what everyone deserves to be paid. It would be great!

Only if someone like me gets to decide on the upper limit.