"The Aaron Game" Pre-Game Thread for Week 8 vs Steelers

[tynimiller]

The week is here.....Aaron will be on the otherside of the ball for the first time...

Because everyone will want this to solely be viewed as the Love vs Aaron game, small look at what both QBs are doing presently:

Love is 1st in adjusted EPA/Play | 3rd in success rate | 5th in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) | 7th in QBR | 8th in PFF Passing Grade | 15th in Air Yards | 7th in big time throw rate
Aaron is 11th in adjusted EPA/Play | 10th in success rate | 8th in CPOE | 19th in QBR | 21st in PFF Passing Grade | 32nd in Air Yards | 10th in big time throw rate

Love sits at 1,438 yards on 176 attempts with 122 completions (69.3%) | 10 TDs | 2 INTs | 108.1 Rate
Aaron sits at 1,270 yards on 172 attempts with 118 completions (68.6%) | 14 TDs | 5 INTs | 105.0 Rate

Neither QB is playing bad but Love clearly is playing slightly better.

The biggest issue won't be if Love can hang with Rodgers...he can and has never really been IMO the reason we lose a game. Can GB's corners get their heads out of their butts and help the incredible front 7 pressure creation and hold Rodgers under control. Rodgers is going to get a big play or two, it is going to happen but as Parsons has said there is zero reason this team can't hold teams under 20 (despite how rare that is in the league).

 

[Curly Calhoun]

The week is here.....Aaron will be on the otherside of the ball for the first time...

Because everyone will want this to solely be viewed as the Love vs Aaron game, small look at what both QBs are doing presently:

Love is 1st in adjusted EPA/Play | 3rd in success rate | 5th in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) | 7th in QBR | 8th in PFF Passing Grade | 15th in Air Yards | 7th in big time throw rate
Aaron is 11th in adjusted EPA/Play | 10th in success rate | 8th in CPOE | 19th in QBR | 21st in PFF Passing Grade | 32nd in Air Yards | 10th in big time throw rate

Love sits at 1,438 yards on 176 attempts with 122 completions (69.3%) | 10 TDs | 2 INTs | 108.1 Rate
Aaron sits at 1,270 yards on 172 attempts with 118 completions (68.6%) | 14 TDs | 5 INTs | 105.0 Rate

Neither QB is playing bad but Love clearly is playing slightly better.

The biggest issue won't be if Love can hang with Rodgers...he can and has never really been IMO the reason we lose a game. Can GB's corners get their heads out of their butts and help the incredible front 7 pressure creation and hold Rodgers under control. Rodgers is going to get a big play or two, it is going to happen but as Parsons has said there is zero reason this team can't hold teams under 20 (despite how rare that is in the league).

I think it will be difficult to beat the Steelers at their place.

That said, Green Bay has the talent to do so. They have to play better, however, than they did against the likes of Joe Flacco and Jacoby Brissett. That kind of effort will not get it done.

 

[tynimiller]

I think it will be difficult to beat the Steelers at their place.

That said, Green Bay has the talent to do so. They have to play better, however, than they did against the likes of Joe Flacco and Jacoby Brissett. That kind of effort will not get it done.

Joe Flacco, same QB and team that just beat the Steelers?

For sure you’re not wrong though, isn’t easy to go in to Pittsburgh and win for sure!

 

[El Guapo]

I'm definitely concerned about this game. Both teams have lots of exposed flaws, ripe for the opposing team to exploit. The Packers have been pretty good at winning the ugly games so far. Another view is to say that they have generally played to the opponents' levels. We aren't whooping on anyone lately but as said above, we have the ability to do it.

I picked Pittsburgh to win the game, but I really hope that we get our rushing game in high gear and steamroll the Steelers.

 

[milani]

I'm definitely concerned about this game. Both teams have lots of exposed flaws, ripe for the opposing team to exploit. The Packers have been pretty good at winning the ugly games so far. Another view is to say that they have generally played to the opponents' levels. We aren't whooping on anyone lately but as said above, we have the ability to do it.

I picked Pittsburgh to win the game, but I really hope that we get our rushing game in high gear and steamroll the Steelers.

This one is more difficult than Arizona. Steelers have a longstanding skilled coach. They have a HOF QB, although an old one. And the Packers have not won in Pittsburgh in a LONG time. But there is no one on the roster the last time the Packers played there in a regular game. Despite having Rodgers what has surprised me about Pittsburgh is that their defensive numbers are not what they have been in recent years so far. They have given up some big points.

 

[Magooch]

Just by measure of QB play, Rodgers will be one of our tougher tests yet.

Up through this point, he is ranked #11 by EPA+CPOE (completion percentage over expectation).

Joe Flacco is 32nd
Jayden Daniels is 20th
Jacoby Brissett is 13th

The only better ones thus far have been Goff (7th) and Dak (6th)

(To be fair this is also looking at their current/overall season ratings, not at the time we played them)

On the other hand, defensively Pittsburgh is currently looking like the 3rd-worst team (EPA allowed/play) we'll have faced thus far:
Browns 3rd
Lions 6th
Cardinals 20th
Commanders 24th
Steelers 25th
Bengals 29th
Cowboys 30th

 

[weeds]

Rodgers will be hyper-focused. The man on a proverbial mission. He won't want just a win. He will want to totally humiliate the Packers- just because. It's how guys like Aaron are wired regardless of the usual pre-game muttering. He will have his best game of the season.

So if the Packers' coaching staff isn't stressing that he's coming to slice and dice that defense, we're not going have a chance. The offense might put up 20 points so there's the benchmark from ol' Weedsie...and you gotta know I don't normally do predictions.

 

[milani]

Just by measure of QB play, Rodgers will be one of our tougher tests yet.

Up through this point, he is ranked #11 by EPA+CPOE (completion percentage over expectation).

Joe Flacco is 32nd
Jayden Daniels is 20th
Jacoby Brissett is 13th

The only better ones thus far have been Goff (7th) and Dak (6th)

(To be fair this is also looking at their current/overall season ratings, not at the time we played them)

On the other hand, defensively Pittsburgh is currently looking like the 3rd-worst team (EPA allowed/play) we'll have faced thus far:
Browns 3rd
Lions 6th
Cardinals 20th
Commanders 24th
Steelers 25th
Bengals 29th
Cowboys 30th

And I know we fared well against Goff THIS time. Next time may be different with all those weapons. I would still rather face Rodgers with our D than Hurts and Lamar, although we get them at home. Another scary QB is Caleb Williams. He is part Favre, part Mayfield, and part Fran Tarkenton. Will drive us crazy.

 

[tynimiller]

And I know we fared well against Goff THIS time. Next time may be different with all those weapons. I would still rather face Rodgers with our D than Hurts and Lamar, although we get them at home. Another scary QB is Caleb Williams. He is part Favre, part Mayfield, and part Fran Tarkenton. Will drive us crazy.

Valentine started against Goff…he needs to start again asap.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Rodgers will be hyper-focused. The man on a proverbial mission. He won't want just a win. He will want to totally humiliate the Packers- just because. It's how guys like Aaron are wired regardless of the usual pre-game muttering. He will have his best game of the season.

I've never been a big believer in pre-game unquantifiable things such as 'on a mission, hungry, wants it more' because that just implies that guys on the other side aren't driven just as much. You could just as easily say Love is driven to show everyone that the Packers made the right decision to move on and sign him to a long term deal and he doesn't just want to win, he wants to double all of Rodgers stats for the game.

From my own personal side this is just another game. I don't have that strong desire to beat the Steelers because of Rodger because I don't have a bunch of animosity towards Rodgers like when Favre went to the Vikings. I mean other than this game I hope the Steelers do well during the season and I never thought that with Favre even when with the Jets.

Then again I was more emotional 17 years ago with football so probably has something to do with it.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Joe Flacco, same QB and team that just beat the Steelers?

For sure you’re not wrong though, isn’t easy to go in to Pittsburgh and win for sure!

Yep. And now they're in a bad mood.

If Green Bay is going to contend for something meaningful, this is exactly the kind of game they need to win.

 

[gopkrs]

And it will be TJ Watt against Tom. Great matchup. I hope Tom is completely healthy.

 

[El Guapo]

And it will be TJ Watt against Tom. Great matchup. I hope Tom is completely healthy.

Even a healthy Tom would be in for a heck of a fight against Watt, so expect that no matter what there will be TEs and RBs chipping him at the beginning of their routes.

 

[tynimiller]

Even a healthy Tom would be in for a heck of a fight against Watt, so expect that no matter what there will be TEs and RBs chipping him at the beginning of their routes.

I don’t think folks realize how well Tom and Walker have done against some of the absolute elite rushers in this league.

Now for sure Watt is getting home minimum once and likely three or four pressures are guaranteed…same as parsons but I think it could be surprising

 

[weeds]

I've never been a big believer in pre-game unquantifiable things such as 'on a mission, hungry, wants it more' because that just implies that guys on the other side aren't driven just as much. You could just as easily say Love is driven to show everyone that the Packers made the right decision to move on and sign him to a long term deal and he doesn't just want to win, he wants to double all of Rodgers stats for the game.

From my own personal side this is just another game. I don't have that strong desire to beat the Steelers because of Rodger because I don't have a bunch of animosity towards Rodgers like when Favre went to the Vikings. I mean other than this game I hope the Steelers do well during the season and I never thought that with Favre even when with the Jets.

Then again I was more emotional 17 years ago with football so probably has something to do with it.

I don't disagree - however I think Rodgers is a different breed of cat. Focused is different than motivated...to me, focused is mentally zeroed in ... motivated is more emotional.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The week is here.....Aaron will be on the otherside of the ball for the first time...

Because everyone will want this to solely be viewed as the Love vs Aaron game, small look at what both QBs are doing presently:

Love is 1st in adjusted EPA/Play | 3rd in success rate | 5th in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) | 7th in QBR | 8th in PFF Passing Grade | 15th in Air Yards | 7th in big time throw rate
Aaron is 11th in adjusted EPA/Play | 10th in success rate | 8th in CPOE | 19th in QBR | 21st in PFF Passing Grade | 32nd in Air Yards | 10th in big time throw rate

Love sits at 1,438 yards on 176 attempts with 122 completions (69.3%) | 10 TDs | 2 INTs | 108.1 Rate
Aaron sits at 1,270 yards on 172 attempts with 118 completions (68.6%) | 14 TDs | 5 INTs | 105.0 Rate

Neither QB is playing bad but Love clearly is playing slightly better.

The biggest issue won't be if Love can hang with Rodgers...he can and has never really been IMO the reason we lose a game. Can GB's corners get their heads out of their butts and help the incredible front 7 pressure creation and hold Rodgers under control. Rodgers is going to get a big play or two, it is going to happen but as Parsons has said there is zero reason this team can't hold teams under 20 (despite how rare that is in the league).

Thanks for this comparison - interesting stuff. I think the play of the Packers' CBs will have an outsized impact on the game - but that's hardly news. The CB group wasn't expected to be dominant, but it seems they've been downright bad. And that's hard to take considering the pressure the DL, DE, and LB groups are putting on QBs. I wonder if Hafley is better off playing press rather than zone, and disrupting routes at the LOS. Zone certainly didn't work with Trey McBride of the Cards.

Parsons is right - this defense should be able to hold every opponent to 20 points or less. Those games should be won.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm definitely concerned about this game. Both teams have lots of exposed flaws, ripe for the opposing team to exploit. The Packers have been pretty good at winning the ugly games so far. Another view is to say that they have generally played to the opponents' levels. We aren't whooping on anyone lately but as said above, we have the ability to do it.

I picked Pittsburgh to win the game, but I really hope that we get our rushing game in high gear and steamroll the Steelers.

Yeah EG - if the running game can get some consistent 5-8 yard carries on first down, the Packers will win. And the Steelers are certainly not the hardest team on the schedule. Yeah it's in Pittsburgh, a hard place to win. But winning in these places is what champions do.

And the DL and LBs should certainly be able to get in Rodgers face. He is not nearly as elusive as he once was, so I expect a few sacks. But Rodgers is playing really well this year. Even so, Love is playing better IMO.

GB 27, Pitt 17

 

[El Guapo]

I don’t think folks realize how well Tom and Walker have done against some of the absolute elite rushers in this league.

Now for sure Watt is getting home minimum once and likely three or four pressures are guaranteed…same as parsons but I think it could be surprising

I don't think that there are many Zach Tom doubters, if any. Walker has been a bit of different story this year. I've always been a fan of what this kid has done for the Packers, but he's just not doing it as well. Maybe we will find out at the end of the season that he was battling some kind of injury, but who knows.

Like you said, there are a handful of elite edge rushers out there who will find a way to the QB and Watt is one of them. Tom will need help regardless to minimize the damage.

 

[milani]

I don’t think folks realize how well Tom and Walker have done against some of the absolute elite rushers in this league.

Now for sure Watt is getting home minimum once and likely three or four pressures are guaranteed…same as parsons but I think it could be surprising

EG. Aiden Hutchinson WK 1.

 

[El Guapo]

EG. Aiden Hutchinson WK 1.

We also played Miles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson. Once we play Watt, the Packers will have endured most of the top edge rushers in the NFL (Hutchinson, Garrett, Hendrickson, Watt). The only other two that I would throw into that mix would be Maxx Crosby and the injured Nick Bosa.

The Packers offense has survived the best that the league has to offer. It should only get easier down the stretch. Hutchinson is the only one that I expect to see again on Thanksgiving and possibly in the playoffs.

 

[Pugger]

Even a healthy Tom would be in for a heck of a fight against Watt, so expect that no matter what there will be TEs and RBs chipping him at the beginning of their routes.

I'm still pissed at TT for taking King with TJ still on the board.

 

[Snoops]

I think Rodgers will absolutely shred us or he is going to throw 2 picks trying so hard to beat us. I don’t think it will be a happy medium we either punish them or they punish us. I think we need to blitz the absolute crap out of him.. he takes sacks but this game is going to be wild I don’t think it will be close lopsided one way or the other

 

[Snoops]

I'm still pissed at TT for taking King with TJ still on the board.

He thought he was going to be there when he traded down and looked smart getting a extra pick.. still hurts to this day

 

[Snoops]

Thanks for this comparison - interesting stuff. I think the play of the Packers' CBs will have an outsized impact on the game - but that's hardly news. The CB group wasn't expected to be dominant, but it seems they've been downright bad. And that's hard to take considering the pressure the DL, DE, and LB groups are putting on QBs. I wonder if Hafley is better off playing press rather than zone, and disrupting routes at the LOS. Zone certainly didn't work with Trey McBride of the Cards.

Parsons is right - this defense should be able to hold every opponent to 20 points or less. Those games should be won.

If you watched the bengals Steelers game he dumped it off so much to TEs they have Dk at wr and no one after that scares me we have great coverage lbs to match up against their TEs I think as long as offense is going we will be just dandy.
I think this is the biggest game of Rodgers career besides superbowl he wants to win so bad and I think he will try way to hard We need to get a lead and punish him. It’s so weird cuz Rodgers is my favorite player of all time. I won’t be angry if we lose even if it’s bittersweet Rodgers can make history

 

[milani]

We also played Miles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson. Once we play Watt, the Packers will have endured most of the top edge rushers in the NFL (Hutchinson, Garrett, Hendrickson, Watt). The only other two that I would throw into that mix would be Maxx Crosby and the injured Nick Bosa.

The Packers offense has survived the best that the league has to offer. It should only get easier down the stretch. Hutchinson is the only one that I expect to see again on Thanksgiving and possibly in the playoffs.

There are some tough defenses on the schedule with some no name players that can surprise us. The Bears have forced a ton of turnovers unlike us. Carolina has played solid defense. The Vikings lost Sunday but did hold Barkley in check.