The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Deleted member 6794]

They can afford to pay jones 10 million per year...releasing preston smith after the season would net them 8 million in additional cap space in 2021. Releasing kirksey and Wagner gets them an additional 10.5 million. Add dean lowry to the list and you have an additional 21.8 million in cap space...that's enough to resign aaron jones for 10 million per and bakh for 20 million per. Jones with a cap hit of 6.8 million and bakh a 15 million cap hit in 2021. And that still saves the 2020 roll over which is 8 million. There are other players who could and likely will be released as well, like devin Funchess 1.2 million for example

Im a bit confused about how you do your math, if you really think the Packers can't afford to pay jones 10 million per. The true statement is that you believe they shouldn't which is fine but to say it's not possible is just plain incorrect...

It's obvious that you're confused about the Packers cap situation. Once again, the team would already be $8 million over the cap if they filled out the bottom of the roster solely with rookies making the league minimum.

Of course that's not a realistic assumption with the team having to sign their draft picks as well as at least some of their cheap players.

Therefore creating $21.8 million of cap space by releasing players doesn't result in the Packers having that much cap space available.

 

[thequick12]

It's obvious that you're confused about the Packers cap situation. Once again, the team would already be $8 million over the cap if they filled out the bottom of the roster solely with rookies making the league minimum.

Therefore creating $21.8 million of cap space by releasing players doesn't result in the Packers having that much cap space available.

Well if I'm confused so is sprottrac...

According to them the Packers are set to rollover about 5.7 million from 2020. Add that to 175 you have 180.7. They have about 178 million dedicated for their top 51 players. That leaves them 2.7 million under the cap add the 21.8 m to that they are 24.5 m under the cap. It's projected they have to pay their draft class 2.176 million well just call it 2.3 m. And another 3 million for practice squad and player 52 and 53.

So that still leaves them 19.2 million under the cap with bakh, jones, tonyan, and sullivan to sign. That's a 4 players released for 4 player resigned so you'd be at 53.

I agree 19.2 million in cap space wouldn't be enough to sign those 4. Tonyan rfa 2nd 3.3 million, sullivan erfa 1 million. That leaves 14.9 m in cap space for bakh and jones, not quite enough but not that short.

Release Devin Funchess save 1.2 million, Oren Burks save 1 million.

Now you have 17.1 million. For bakh, jones and 2 league minimum salary guys...and we haven't even talked about restructuring Rodgers yet...

So please explain to me what exactly am I so obviously confused about?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well if I'm confused so is sprottrac...

According to them the Packers are set to rollover about 5.7 million from 2020. Add that to 175 you have 180.7. They have about 178 million dedicated for their top 51 players. That leaves them 2.7 million under the cap add the 21.8 m to that they are 24.5 m under the cap. It's projected they have to pay their draft class 2.176 million well just call it 2.3 m. And another 3 million for practice squad and player 52 and 53.

So please explain to me what exactly am I so obviously confused about?

You ignored that the Packers currently have only 36 players under contract for the 2021 season.

 

[thequick12]

You ignored that the Packers currently have only 36 players under contract for the 2021 season.

Ah I see. So that's 15 players. And you said previously that they could restructure Rodgers and gain 16 million. So I guess that covers that. And say 7 of those guys cost only 500k and 8 cost 1 m per. You'd gain another 4.5 million in cap space.

And they would have 17.1 million or whatever it was for jones and bakh and 52 and 53. Let's say 500k each for those guys. That's still 16.1 million. Now add the 4.5 m gained from Rodgers restructure. Thats 20.6 million.

If jones was getting 10 m per you wouldn't have to backload him that bad to make his cap hit 6 m in first year. A 4 year 40 m contract with 20 million signing bonus and 1 million base in first year made put his cap hit at 6 m in 2021. Then if evenly distributed over remaining 3 years cap hit would be about 11m per year. But you could play with that distribution if you wanted.

Leaves you 14.6 m under cap with just bakh left to sign. You'd have to backload him a bunch but it's possible even at his 20 million per price.

I think that gives you the best chance to win with Rodgers in 2021, 2022 and possibly 2023

Edit:

I made a mistake here I forgot to add the 7 draft picks to players under contract. That takes it from 36 to 43. So only 8 players short of 51. Pay half minimum of 500k or whatever close to that it is that's 2 million. Pay half vet minimum 1 million that's 4 million. 6 million total. So of the Rodgers restructure 16 million you have 10 million not 4.5m for bakh. So you'd have 20.1 million in cap for bakh and in season moves...it works

 

[thequick12]

Bakitiari just signed 4 years 105.5 million extension. 30 million signing bonus...and it begins...

 

[Jerellh528]

Jones must’ve found out last night because he looked like the wind was out of his sails today. Outperformed by Williams.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Ah I see. So that's 15 players. And you said previously that they could restructure Rodgers and gain 16 million. So I guess that covers that. And say 7 of those guys cost only 500k and 8 cost 1 m per. You'd gain another 4.5 million in cap space.

The league minimum for a rookie is set a $660K for next season. If the Packers convert Rodgers' workout bonus for next season into a signing bonus as well they could even save $17.6 million of cap space by restructuring his contract.

I made a mistake here I forgot to add the 7 draft picks to players under contract. That takes it from 36 to 43.

According to estimates by Over The Cap the Packers draft class will result in a total cap hit of just under $8.4 million though.

 

[thequick12]

Actually its useing history as examples.

Also you don't get to use "Well they got hurt" as an excuse considering the short shelf life and high injury risk the position presents is a chief argument AGAINST paying him big money. (not to mention Jones himself isn't a beacon of health and durability)

For years its been pretty much known that paying top shelf RBs is a bad idea that rarely works out well for the team handing out the contract. And yet fans of each team with a top shelf RB talk themselves into reasons why their guy is different. This is whats happening here

Things change man and not every running back is the same.

Take yesterday it seemed jones didn't do much. But who broke off a 20 yard run when the team needed it most just prior to adams game winning td. And he still finished with just shy of 100 yards from scrimmage.

Anyways with Bakh now signed, jones becomes the Packers priority. And since in 2021 bakh can count just north of 11 million against the cap, our plan is taking shape nicely. You can now see how there's room to sign jones to a 10 m per year deal...just stay tuned and watch.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Anyways with Bakh now signed, jones becomes the Packers priority. And since in 2021 bakh can count just north of 11 million against the cap, our plan is taking shape nicely. You can now see how there's room to sign jones to a 10 m per year deal...just stay tuned and watch.

The Packers could still re-sign Jones as well but would have to make additional moves aside of the ones necessary to fit Bakhtiari's deal under the cap to make it work.

I'm concerned that while the team would be able to retain two of their elite players the talent level at other positions would regress too much for it to make sense.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers could still re-sign Jones as well but would have to make additional moves aside of the ones necessary to fit Bakhtiari's deal under the cap to make it work.

I'm concerned that while the team would be able to retain two of their elite players the talent level at other positions would regress too much for it to make sense.

Yup to do those moves I would bet solid money it means losing or cutting the following or all but maybe one of the following:

Linsley
Lowry
Turner
King
J Williams
Preston Smith
Kirksey
Amos
Wagner


Probably forgetting others

We are at only 37 players under 2021 contracts now if memory serves....and some of these would be cuts. Folks better get used to lot of UDFAs and POOR free agent signings to be our depth nearly everywhere IF we sign Jones.

 

[Dantés]

Yup to do those moves I would bet solid money it means losing or cutting the following or all but maybe one of the following:

Linsley
Lowry
Turner
King
J Williams
Preston Smith
Kirksey
Amos
Wagner


Probably forgetting others

We are at only 37 players under 2021 contracts now if memory serves....and some of these would be cuts. Folks better get used to lot of UDFAs and POOR free agent signings to be our depth nearly everywhere IF we sign Jones.

It would probably make better cap sense to keep Williams and let Jones walk.

 

[thequick12]

The Packers could still re-sign Jones as well but would have to make additional moves aside of the ones necessary to fit Bakhtiari's deal under the cap to make it work.

I'm concerned that while the team would be able to retain two of their elite players the talent level at other positions would regress too much for it to make sense.

I understand your concerns there man but I don't think the overall talent is gonna drop that much in 2021 with Bakh and hopefully jones in the fold.

Because releasing the guys they have to release P. Smith, Lowry, Kirksey, Wagner isn't gonna hurt them that much as they have younger players with bigger potential ready to step into most of those roles, Gary, Keke, Martin. Even losing kevin king and corey linsley won't be terrible with Josh jackson looking better and more consistently available and ruyun jr looking like a fit as a future starter at guard.

They used even less 2021 cap on bakh than I outlined in my plan. I think that's gonna leave em more room than you think in the end. Even at 10 m per we can reasonably expect jones' 2021 cap number to be in the 6 million range. That's gonna leave a decent amount of meat on the 2021 bone. Plus you're gonna have at least a couple compensatory picks to go along with all of your own picks...maybe gute will hit on a wr, cb, ol, dl who knows

If the cap doesn't recover in 2022 is where you're gonna have a problem because davante will need a similar deal. The Packers are gambling, like I would, that the cap is gonna be right back were it would if been without this fiscal annomoly of a year

 

[Dantés]

I understand your concerns there man but I don't think the overall talent is gonna drop that much in 2021 with Bakh and hopefully jones in the fold.

Because releasing the guys they have to release P. Smith, Lowry, Kirksey, Wagner isn't gonna hurt them that much as they have younger players with bigger potential ready to step into most of those roles, Gary, Keke, Martin. Even losing kevin king and corey linsley won't be terrible with Josh jackson looking better and more consistently available and ruyun jr looking like a fit as a future starter at guard.

They used even less 2021 cap on bakh than I outlined in my plan. I think that's gonna leave em more room than you think in the end. Even at 10 m per we can reasonable expect jones' 2021 cap number to be in the 6 million range. That's gonna leave a decent amount of meat on the 2021 bone. Plus you're gonna have at least a couple compensatory picks to go along with all of your own picks...maybe gute will hit on a wr, cb, ol, dl who knows

If the cap doesn't recover in 2022 is where you're gonna have a problem because davante will need a similar deal. The Packers are gambling like I would that the cap is gonna be right back were it would if been without this fiscal annomoly of a year

Where it could hurt most is in terms of depth.

Right now, if Kirksey gets hurt then Martin plays a lot more and you're ok.

Next year, if Martin gets hurt then someone like Summers plays a lot more and you're not ok.

The rookie class will be critical to fill out that depth chart. The Packers should have 10 picks to work with.

 

[thequick12]

Yup to do those moves I would bet solid money it means losing or cutting the following or all but maybe one of the following:

Linsley
Lowry
Turner
King
J Williams
Preston Smith
Kirksey
Amos
Wagner


Probably forgetting others

We are at only 37 players under 2021 contracts now if memory serves....and some of these would be cuts. Folks better get used to lot of UDFAs and POOR free agent signings to be our depth nearly everywhere IF we sign Jones.

They definitely not cutting turner anymore, he only represents 3.5 m savings and he is the starting right tackle plus has shown he can play left tackle and guard.

And while it's possible since he's like 6 or more million in savings, I don't think they'll cut amos either. But yes everyone else on your list is gone for sure which I've been saying the whole time.

Maybe add Funchess and Burks 2.2 million total savings. Added to rest of you list (21.8m) minus amos and turner...24 million in savings against the cap for guys who have replacements that could be better in the roster

We are gonna sign jones and it'll be fine man

 

[Mondio]

I don't think Amos is going anywhere. Smith is working himself out of town. looks lazy, slow and disinterested half the plays he's out there. Does like to rush the passer though.

Turner won't be, Wagner probably if any young guys develop.

The only way someone like Burks is gone is if someone out plays him, he's not going to be cut to save cap space. at the very least he's a decent ST's guy and still on rookie contract. while he might get cut, it won't be so we have more money to work with, it will be because he didn't earn the roster spot. Guys like Preston might be because we're paying them to be better than they are.

 

[tynimiller]

They definitely not cutting turner anymore, he only represents 3.5 m savings and he is the starting right tackle plus has shown he can play left tackle and guard.

And while it's possible since he's like 6 or more million in savings, I don't think they'll cut amos either. But yes everyone else on your list is gone for sure which I've been saying the whole time.

Maybe add Funchess and Burks 2.2 million total savings. Added to rest of you list (21.8m) minus amos and turner...24 million in savings against the cap for guys who have replacements that could be better in the roster

We are gonna sign jones and it'll be fine man

Problem is we are already over the cap in 2021 WITHOUT even having 40 guys on contract....

 

[PackerDNA]

It would probably make better cap sense to keep Williams and let Jones walk.

It definitely would make better cap sense.
But as I had posted sometime earlier, Williams is nowhere near as dynamic as Jones.

 

[Dantés]

It definitely would make better cap sense.
But as I had posted sometime earlier, Williams is nowhere near as dynamic as Jones.

He's not nearly as good of an athlete, but he's not a big drop off in the passing game. And he is really good in pass pro.

 

[PikeBadger]

Yup to do those moves I would bet solid money it means losing or cutting the following or all but maybe one of the following:

Linsley
Lowry
Turner
King
J Williams
Preston Smith
Kirksey
Amos
Wagner


Probably forgetting others

We are at only 37 players under 2021 contracts now if memory serves....and some of these would be cuts. Folks better get used to lot of UDFAs and POOR free agent signings to be our depth nearly everywhere IF we sign Jones.

I also don’t see them cutting Turner. His value because of his versatility exceeds his salary imo. Lots can change though between now and the end of season. I think Preston Smith, Wagner and Lowry would be the first to go.

 

[PikeBadger]

It definitely would make better cap sense.
But as I had posted sometime earlier, Williams is nowhere near as dynamic as Jones.

Also depends on Dillon’s development. That could affect either Jones or Williams.

 

[PikeBadger]

I don't think Amos is going anywhere. Smith is working himself out of town. looks lazy, slow and disinterested half the plays he's out there. Does like to rush the passer though.

Turner won't be, Wagner probably if any young guys develop.

The only way someone like Burks is gone is if someone out plays him, he's not going to be cut to save cap space. at the very least he's a decent ST's guy and still on rookie contract. while he might get cut, it won't be so we have more money to work with, it will be because he didn't earn the roster spot. Guys like Preston might be because we're paying them to be better than they are.

I think Amos and Kirksey are likely safe until next summer’s camp. Staff will have a better idea by then if replacements are ready or not.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I understand your concerns there man but I don't think the overall talent is gonna drop that much in 2021 with Bakh and hopefully jones in the fold.

Because releasing the guys they have to release P. Smith, Lowry, Kirksey, Wagner isn't gonna hurt them that much as they have younger players with bigger potential ready to step into most of those roles, Gary, Keke, Martin. Even losing kevin king and corey linsley won't be terrible with Josh jackson looking better and more consistently available and ruyun jr looking like a fit as a future starter at guard.

You have to realize that all of the players you mentioned the Packers should release next offseason are currently playing a significant amount of snaps.

It's not an easy task to adequately replace all of them while not having any cap space to make a move.

If the cap doesn't recover in 2022 is where you're gonna have a problem because davante will need a similar deal. The Packers are gambling, like I would, that the cap is gonna be right back were it would if been without this fiscal annomoly of a year

Once again, the league and players assocition agreed to spread out the losses because of COVID-19 over the next four years. Therefore the cap definitely won't increase to what it would have been before the crisis in 2022 either.

I think Amos and Kirksey are likely safe until next summer’s camp. Staff will have a better idea by then if replacements are ready or not.

Unfortunately the Packers need to make several moves to get under the cap for the 2021 season.

 

[PikeBadger]

You have to realize that all of the players you mentioned the Packers should release next offseason are currently playing a significant amount of snaps.

It's not an easy task to adequately replace all of them while not having any cap space to make a move.



Once again, the league and players assocition agreed to spread out the losses because of COVID-19 over the next four years. Therefore the cap definitely won't increase to what it would have been before the crisis in 2022 either.



Unfortunately the Packers need to make several moves to get under the cap for the 2021 season.

It’s only unfortunate if you don’t have players ready to take on that role.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It’s only unfortunate if you don’t have players ready to take on that role.

True, but who do you feel comfortable about adequately replacing the players possibly being released this offseason?

 

[Mondio]

well it looks as AJones just may be moving on anyway. He doesn't need football anymore.

https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/e...ZMN2ohVe3vfhLX7wKT-yeK8M7FBd4Dzs3YjFN8473_DzA