The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[tynimiller]

Yes I believe. If they are a trying to be this run first team letting jones go imo would be dumb I get the salary cap but jones has proved himself. Bahk and jones should be 1.a and 1.b priority to be resigned. Linsley is gone I think and if it came down to jones or king king should be well on his way... but they should have resigned jones way before cuz I don’t wanna think this but he is more than likely gone this year and it sucks

Incorrect, we also have Patrick Taylor out of Memphis who signed a 3 year deal.

 

[hasamikun]

Yes I believe. If they are a trying to be this run first team letting jones go imo would be dumb I get the salary cap but jones has proved himself. Bahk and jones should be 1.a and 1.b priority to be resigned. Linsley is gone I think and if it came down to jones or king king should be well on his way... but they should have resigned jones way before cuz I don’t wanna think this but he is more than likely gone this year and it sucks

I have been on the "Linsley will be the odd man put" train for a long time but he is playing out of his mind at the moment and is a big part of the OL playing on an elite level like it does.
Teams all around the league replaced(willingly or not) their high paid RBs with way cheaper options and it mostly works. Having an overall elite OL helps alot with this. Long story short I have changed my mind on Linsley. They should resign him and try their best with a rookie RB with a similar skill set to Aaron Jones. I love the man but he will be way too expensive after this season and Packers cant really afford this. I think them keeping Williams on a cheap deal + Dillon + another rookie will be the most likely outcome for the RB room.

 

[tynimiller]

The more often than not strategy to succeed at RB is draft or sign a guy entering a contract year like Jamaal Williams - you don't have to overpay, likely short term commitment of 2-3 years.

This is one logic which makes a lot of sense and would justify those saying while they don't prefer a RB room without Jones, they realize Jamaal resigned, retain Dillon, Taylor and draft someone is a very plausible way to remain deadly.

 

[Dantés]

The more often than not strategy to succeed at RB is draft or sign a guy entering a contract year like Jamaal Williams - you don't have to overpay, likely short term commitment of 2-3 years.

This is one logic which makes a lot of sense and would justify those saying while they don't prefer a RB room without Jones, they realize Jamaal resigned, retain Dillon, Taylor and draft someone is a very plausible way to remain deadly.

If you kept Williams, you'd have a guy who is reliable in the passing game, especially in pass pro, which is critical. If you drafted someone in the 2nd or 3rd, or even 4th round with some quickness and explosive ability, you could complement what Dillon offers as a hammer.

 

[tynimiller]

If you kept Williams, you'd have a guy who is reliable in the passing game, especially in pass pro, which is critical. If you drafted someone in the 2nd or 3rd, or even 4th round with some quickness and explosive ability, you could complement what Dillon offers as a hammer.

Honestly, Day 3 pick up could be the way to go...always could have Patrick Taylor illustrate what I love about him and was ecstatic when we picked him up undrafted...or sign Ervin perhaps to a two year deal or so.

 

[Dantés]

Honestly, Day 3 pick up could be the way to go...always could have Patrick Taylor illustrate what I love about him and was ecstatic when we picked him up undrafted...or sign Ervin perhaps to a two year deal or so.

Forgot about Ervin. I'm sure they could bring him back on a fairly modest deal. For me, that would depend on how well he does the rest of the way as a punt returner.

 

[GleefulGary]

They really haven’t been using Ervin as a RB though. He gets to carry on the occasion jet sweep, but that’s about it.

 

[Snoops]

They really haven’t been using Ervin as a RB though. He gets to carry on the occasion jet sweep, but that’s about it.

Yes he is there to confuse the defense and run around they have to account for him cuz the moment they don’t rodgers hits him. And when he does take it he can make plays he is useful especially how cheap he is plus a reliable returner

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well you're right in that his price has gone up significantly from what they could have gotten him to sign for prior to the season. But I hope you're wrong about the last part.

It would have been expensive to re-sign Jones this offseason as well.

If they are a trying to be this run first team letting jones go imo would be dumb I get the salary cap but jones has proved himself.

I'm sorry but you don't understand the salary cap if you advocate for signing players who have proved themselves no matter what.

Having an overall elite OL helps alot with this. Long story short I have changed my mind on Linsley. They should resign him and try their best with a rookie RB with a similar skill set to Aaron Jones.

The Packers shouldn't spend precious cap space on a center or a running back.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I get hyperbole and I’m not trying to be super literal, but a lot of people seem to have changed their minds about this.

Saying a guy is worth X dollars but not Y dollars, when Y dollars is what he's going to get, isn't really changing your mind. I'm not saying you haven't changed, but many posters appear to think that Jones is worth re-signing, but only if he takes a 30% paycut for the honor of continuing to work for his current employer.

 

[Dantés]

Saying a guy is worth X dollars but not Y dollars, when Y dollars is what he's going to get, isn't really changing your mind. I'm not saying you haven't changed, but many posters appear to think that Jones is worth re-signing, but only if he takes a 30% paycut for the honor of continuing to work for his current employer.

But learning that the market price for his services is going to be higher than expected, and learning that cap space will be about 35M lower in 2021 than what was projected, can obviously lead one to change one's mind about what the best course of action is regarding this player.

 

[scotscheese]

I'm obviously not the ideal person to talk about NFL contracts but could we offer something like this because of the low cap for 2021

2/3 yr offer, $10 mil signing bonus(pro rated over the 2/3 yrs)
year 1 Low salary $2mil?
years 2/3 higher salary 8-10mil
with possibility of restructure after year 1/2 to allow higher salary/cap hit

It might seem over simplified, but would that work with the expected lower cap.

obviously this assumes that Jones is willing to work this as well

 

[ARPackFan]

The Cap: Before the COVID-19 situation, the cap ceiling in 2021 was trending towards ~210M. It is now at 175M. Per spotrac, this leaves the Packers with ~5M in space in the offseason, as opposed to ~40M in space. This will mean a serious belt-tightening. While that will be true of other teams as well, many teams will have significantly more room than Green Bay.

The cap numbers from Spotrac & Overthecap are based upon the 36 active players for 2021. 15 more players for a 51 man roster adds another $9.9 million to the active cap. I know there will be other juggling of the roster but I think the cap space for all NFL teams will be a lot less than either of the mentioned sites show for 2021. The 2021 off season is going to very interesting and we may see an unprecedented movement of players between teams.

 

[PackerDNA]

I have a feeling maybe not as much movement among the top players as we're thinking right now. So right now you're looking at their current team not having much money, so you look elsewhere for more. Will it be that much more since other teams will also be hurting?
I'll be looking to see very creative contracts and shorter terms until the cap can go up and until the next TV deal. And maybe some top players biting the bullet to stay with their current teams.

 

[swhitset]

I'm obviously not the ideal person to talk about NFL contracts but could we offer something like this because of the low cap for 2021

2/3 yr offer, $10 mil signing bonus(pro rated over the 2/3 yrs)
year 1 Low salary $2mil?
years 2/3 higher salary 8-10mil
with possibility of restructure after year 1/2 to allow higher salary/cap hit

It might seem over simplified, but would that work with the expected lower cap.

obviously this assumes that Jones is willing to work this as well

That’s pretty much how most contracts are done.... without the “restructuring” language which I see very little chance of. The problem is that your numbers aren’t even close to high enough to fit the situation we have with Jones... which is why most are saying the Packers cannot/ should not afford him.

 

[gbgary]

they really can't afford to keep him. they might keep williams though...maybe. he'll be much cheaper (unless he really goes off during the remainder of the season). they've got 25+- million to shave off the roster if the cap ends up being 175m. whoever they keep, if they keep any, they'll have to set the deals up like clarks with the larger hits coming in 2022. based on rodgers' 180 turnaround he'll most likely be around another year so that 40 million-ish windfall in 2022 will be reduced to 17ish. this is the year folks. GO PACK!

 

[hasamikun]

The Packers shouldn't spend precious cap space on a center or a running back.

True, Packers drafted 3 iOL so I bet Linsley will still be out but I rather they pay him than a RB, Jones or not.

I still think keeping Williams, Dillon, Taylor and a rookie will be the way to go. But maybe, just maybe, Gutey is playing 4D chess and with Alvin Jones possibly landing with the Packers after his workout, Aaron would be down to accept a team friendlier deal than normal. He aleady stated that he would love to play with Alvin and have fun with him. Unrealisitic but I can dream.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So right now you're looking at their current team not having much money, so you look elsewhere for more. Will it be that much more since other teams will also be hurting?

There will be several teams with way more cap space than the Packers next offseason.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Good job we haven`t let him go. As far as I could see, he was the only weapon we remotely had last night.

 

[thequick12]

Sorry was MIA for a bit...Sorry but you forgot quite possibly someone that to the position overall in the league could be argued is higher in that regard than any player we have save maybe Bahk.

Kenny Clark is a BEAST and you spell blue for him with a capital B.

Yep I did forget clark for sure. Although he needs to step it up in 2nd half of the year here

 

[thequick12]

It would have been expensive to re-sign Jones this offseason as well

The Packers shouldn't spend precious cap space on a center or a running back.

Yes it would have but less expensive...

And here's a longtime respected nfl scouts answer when asked about the theory paying running backs is dumb

“That thinking is of small minds and teams that struggle to win on a consistent basis,” the scout said in a text. “Yes, they get hurt like all players. Acquire three and let them run! If you’re lucky enough to hit a home run on one of three and he is a difference maker, pay the man!”

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And here's a longtime respected nfl scouts answer when asked about the theory paying running backs is dumb

“That thinking is of small minds and teams that struggle to win on a consistent basis,” the scout said in a text. “Yes, they get hurt like all players. Acquire three and let them run! If you’re lucky enough to hit a home run on one of three and he is a difference maker, pay the man!”

I'm sorry but the well respected NFL scout (whoever that was in this case) is wrong about it.

 

[thequick12]

I'm sorry but the well respected NFL scout (whoever that was in this case) is wrong about it.

That could be, but alvin kamara, dalvin cook, and derrick henry have unquestionably been worth the money thus far. They are far and away the best players on their teams... I'm thinking now that the Packers may be able to argue and win on the point that jones should take less than dalvin cook because of the season cook is having. If you can get him for 10 million per there's really no argument against that. I mean come on man, blake martinez gets paid 10 million per year...

And once again I don't think he is wrong because he didn't say you pay just any running back he said if you're lucky enough to get a special one, pay him

That's all I've been saying the whole time, if you don't keep the special players you've been lucky enough to aquire, you're not gonna win much.

A good example is the milwaukee bucks, if they don't keep Giannis will they ever get a player like him again? Highly, highly unlikely, so they better do all they can to keep him...

Who was the last truly star running back the Packers had and how long ago was it? I'd have to say Ahman Green and that was nearly 20 years ago. And before that I wouldn't even know you'd probably have to go back to the 60s or something. Point is players like this don't come around often. And with this being the last 3 and a half seasons of Rodgers Packers career, to quote kevin Greene, "it's time"

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That could be, but alvin kamara, dalvin cook, and derrick henry have unquestionably been worth the money thus far. They are far and away the best players on their teams... I'm thinking now that the Packers may be able to argue and win on the point that jones should take less than dalvin cook because of the season cook is having. If you can get him for 10 million per there's really no argument against that. I mean come on man, blake martinez gets paid 10 million per year...

The Packers don't have the cap space available next offseason to pay Jones $10 million per year. In addition they shouldn't pay that much money to a running back even if they could afford it.

As a side note, you need to wait a bit longer before making an educated guess on how the deals for Kamara, Henry and Cook will have worked out for the respective teams.

 

[thequick12]

[

The Packers don't have the cap space available next offseason to pay Jones $10 million per year. In addition they shouldn't pay that much money to a running back even if they could afford it.

.

They can afford to pay jones 10 million per year...releasing preston smith after the season would net them 8 million in additional cap space in 2021. Releasing kirksey and Wagner gets them an additional 10.5 million. Add dean lowry to the list and you have an additional 21.8 million in cap space...that's enough to resign aaron jones for 10 million per and bakh for 20 million per. Jones with a cap hit of 6.8 million and bakh a 15 million cap hit in 2021. And that still saves the 2020 roll over which is 8 million. There are other players who could and likely will be released as well, like devin Funchess 1.2 million for example

Im a bit confused about how you do your math, if you really think the Packers can't afford to pay jones 10 million per. The true statement is that you believe they shouldn't which is fine but to say it's not possible is just plain incorrect...