The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Poppa San]

Do we really need another sign or not Aaron Jones thread?

 

[Dantés]

The fact that it didn't work out doesn't change the fact that it was the right move for their respective teams to resign them. Now I'm not sure what happened with johnson but clearly gurley got injured. What your doing is results based thinking and that's not the way you should think about gambling decisions. And nfl free agency is a lot like gambling to me. Do you keep making the right moves whether you get unlucky or not because you're gonna get unlucky certainly but if you continue making the right moves in the long run you'll come out ahead

If you're playing poker and you go all in preflop with pocket aces over the top of a raiser and you get called by pocket deuces and he hits the 2 and wins. That doesn't mean you made the wrong move going all in with your aces...

Yep, I totally agree that using anecdotal evidence isn't the smartest way to do things.

But I would counter that when the anecdotes start piling up, they may be pointing to something underlying that's deserving of more attention.

Let's set the most recent contracts aside, as we haven't had time to see how they will/won't pay off. So that would be McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Cook, Henry, and Mixon. They've all signed deals that are just in their infancy and can't really be assessed yet.

Prior to this latest batch, here were the big deals handed out to running backs:

• Lev Bell: 4 years, 52.5M, 27M gtd
• David Johnson: 3 years, 39M, 32M gtd
• Todd Gurley: 4 years, 57.5M, 45M gtd
• Devonta Freeman: 5 years, 45.2M, 22M gtd
• Jerick McKinnon: 4 years, 30M, 18M gtd
• Lamar Miller: 4 years, 26M, 14M gtd
• Mark Ingram: 2 years, 15M, 6.5M gtd
• Lesean McCoy: 5 years, 40M, 18.2M gtd
• Doug Martin: 5 years, 35.75M, 15M gtd
• Chris Ivory: 5 years, 32M, 10M gtd
• DeMarco Murray: 5 years, 40M, 21M gtd

And we could go on (if we signed up for Spotrac premium, ).

How many of those teams ended up happy with the deal they made, or would go back and do it again? If we are being objective about it, I would say the honest answer is just one-- Mark Ingram. And that in large part because the deal he signed was relatively modest.

So if one example is "results-based thinking," then what do we do with multiplied examples?

I would argue that the trend here is telling us a few things.

1. Running backs often slow down on their second contracts.
2. Running backs often get hurt on their second contracts, which exacerbates #1.
3. Because they tend to slow down, big contracts often wind up being bad deals for the team.

Now I have made the case, and I think it's a solid one, that Jones could buck the trend because his workload has not been excessive. But I also made that case when I was hoping he could be had for something in the neighborhood of Ekeler money. Given that the market has been set and he will cost nearly twice what I hoped, AND the cap drops next year, I think the risk of paying a running back, as illustrated above, looms quite a bit larger.

 

[Dantés]

Do we really need another sign or not Aaron Jones thread?

I felt like it made sense, since I made that other thread before all the stuff happened with the cap and RB contracts.

However, I could see merging the content and replacing the old poll with the new one.

 

[GleefulGary]

I felt like it made sense, since I made that other thread before all the stuff happened with the cap and RB contracts.

However, I could see merging the content and replacing the old poll with the new one.

This is too reasonable, and I don’t know what to do.

In the future, please act like a jerk to make my decisions easier. Thanks.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Nobody is changing their minds on this. Some think running backs aren't worth sizable deals while others do. Jones is obviously a top-5 running back. No amount of stats is making that more or less apparent.

Side note - strange that some who think the Dillon pick was a good pick don't think that good running backs should be paid. If good running backs shouldn't be paid, then isn't spending a 2nd round pick on a guy who will be with the team for only 3 years also a waste? If he's any good then he won't be worth re-signing, while if he's not that good, then it was a waste to draft him. Not meant to be anti-Dillon, just pointing out the inconsistency of some fans' arguments.

 

[Dantés]

Nobody is changing their minds on this. Some think running backs aren't worth sizable deals while others do. Jones is obviously a top-5 running back. No amount of stats is making that more or less apparent.

Side note - strange that some who think the Dillon pick was a good pick don't think that good running backs should be paid. If good running backs shouldn't be paid, then isn't spending a 2nd round pick on a guy who will be with the team for only 3 years also a waste? If he's any good then he won't be worth re-signing, while if he's not that good, then it was a waste to draft him. Not meant to be anti-Dillon, just pointing out the inconsistency of some fans' arguments.

That’s an odd comment given that the first poll was 70/30 and this one is now 50/50. And I made this thread because I... changed my mind.

 

[swhitset]

That’s an odd comment given that the first poll was 70/30 and this one is now 50/50. And I made this thread because I... changed my mind.

Agreed it’s pretty obvious that as circumstances change, some minds can and have been changed. Obviously there are a few people that will stubbornly stick with their views no matter what as well.

 

[longtimefan]

Do we really need another sign or not Aaron Jones thread?

Why not..it happens with other threads too. Its anarchy eyes tells ya

 

[Sunshinepacker]

That’s an odd comment given that the first poll was 70/30 and this one is now 50/50. And I made this thread because I... changed my mind.

Man, this is the Internet, if people start complaining about hyperbole my entire basis of reality is going to be destroyed.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I didn't say anyone was saying he wasn't a blue chip player...I said you don't let blue chip players leave and when you do it can change everything.

Packers blue chip players
Rodgers
Bakh
Adams
Z. Smith
Alexander
Jones
Jenkins

Any additions or arguments? To me that's all they have for blue chip players, 7 which isn't bad but you wanna add to that # not deplete it

You're forgetting about Clark for the second time over the last 24 hours.

 

[Dantés]

Man, this is the Internet, if people start complaining about hyperbole my entire basis of reality is going to be destroyed.

I get hyperbole and I’m not trying to be super literal, but a lot of people seem to have changed their minds about this.

 

[El Guapo]

...and their opinions will continue to change over the course of the season. How Jones plays, how Bakhtiari plays, injuries, how their backups play, how the salary cap sets up, how other RBs get paid, and how other players' contracts on the team get restructured will all affect posters' opinions on this issue.

 

[Snoops]

Only running back we have on contract next year is Dillon right?
I don’t think they will be able to keep jones and Williams. But they should have resigned jones in the off season cuz the longer the season goes on without a deal makes me think they won’t.

 

[Dantés]

...and their opinions will continue to change over the course of the season. How Jones plays, how Bakhtiari plays, injuries, how their backups play, how the salary cap sets up, how other RBs get paid, and how other players' contracts on the team get restructured will all affect posters' opinions on this issue.

Yeah, other things may happen to influence opinions, but none of them will be nearly as impactful as a shrinking salary cap and the RB market salary being reset.

 

[thequick12]

Yep, I totally agree that using anecdotal evidence isn't the smartest way to do things.

But I would counter that when the anecdotes start piling up, they may be pointing to something underlying that's deserving of more attention.

Let's set the most recent contracts aside, as we haven't had time to see how they will/won't pay off. So that would be McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Cook, Henry, and Mixon. They've all signed deals that are just in their infancy and can't really be assessed yet.

Prior to this latest batch, here were the big deals handed out to running backs:

• Lev Bell: 4 years, 52.5M, 27M gtd
• David Johnson: 3 years, 39M, 32M gtd
• Todd Gurley: 4 years, 57.5M, 45M gtd
• Devonta Freeman: 5 years, 45.2M, 22M gtd
• Jerick McKinnon: 4 years, 30M, 18M gtd
• Lamar Miller: 4 years, 26M, 14M gtd
• Mark Ingram: 2 years, 15M, 6.5M gtd
• Lesean McCoy: 5 years, 40M, 18.2M gtd
• Doug Martin: 5 years, 35.75M, 15M gtd
• Chris Ivory: 5 years, 32M, 10M gtd
• DeMarco Murray: 5 years, 40M, 21M gtd

And we could go on (if we signed up for Spotrac premium, ).

How many of those teams ended up happy with the deal they made, or would go back and do it again? If we are being objective about it, I would say the honest answer is just one-- Mark Ingram. And that in large part because the deal he signed was relatively modest.

So if one example is "results-based thinking," then what do we do with multiplied examples?

I would argue that the trend here is telling us a few things.

1. Running backs often slow down on their second contracts.
2. Running backs often get hurt on their second contracts, which exacerbates #1.
3. Because they tend to slow down, big contracts often wind up being bad deals for the team.

Now I have made the case, and I think it's a solid one, that Jones could buck the trend because his workload has not been excessive. But I also made that case when I was hoping he could be had for something in the neighborhood of Ekeler money. Given that the market has been set and he will cost nearly twice what I hoped, AND the cap drops next year, I think the risk of paying a running back, as illustrated above, looms quite a bit larger.

My one question after reading that would be. How many of those guys do you personally believe are on the same level as jones when they signed?
To me it's only Gurley for sure and maybe Johnson. I believe both had injuries after signing. And I would have said bell if he hadn't sat out a year before signing that deal but with the year off I wouldn't put him on the jones level...

So while I agree that if there's a pattern perhaps you should take heed, I don't agree that those guys are comps to Aaron jones and thus I don't think most of those teams were making the "right play"when they signed them to big money deals.

I believe you should only sign blue chip players to top of market deals, regardless of position. Now you pointed out the guys that I believe are comps to jones have just recently signed contracts. Kamara and mccaffery. Even cook and elliot are a lot closer to jones and maybe I wouldn't say they as good of comps to jones as the first 2 but they are on the same level. As is Henry, who is unquestionably a blue chip player. Mixon to me is the tier below

And to be honest I never thought even when you first posted this, that eckler was a comp to jones or that jones would sign a contract in the neighborhood of eckler. I get where you were coming from eckler is kind of a poor man's aaron jones, but it was clearly very wishful thinking... it's just the eye test tells you jones is on a whole nother level. Just as it does with mccaffrey and kamara

 

[Dantés]

Only running back we have on contract next year is Dillon right?
I don’t think they will be able to keep jones and Williams. But they should have resigned jones in the off season cuz the longer the season goes on without a deal makes me think they won’t.

If they don't have the financial wherewithal to keep Jones, they could still potentially keep Williams or some other veteran on a cheaper contract.

2 years, 5M for Jamaal Williams, Tevin Coleman, or Mike Davis would be a lot more manageable on the cap than 4 years, 50M for Aaron Jones.

 

[thequick12]

Only running back we have on contract next year is Dillon right?
I don’t think they will be able to keep jones and Williams. But they should have resigned jones in the off season cuz the longer the season goes on without a deal makes me think they won’t.

Well you're right in that his price has gone up significantly from what they could have gotten him to sign for prior to the season. But I hope you're wrong about the last part.
I just can't see them allowing him to leave at worst why would they not just franchise tag him?

 

[Dantés]

My one question after reading that would be. How many of those guys do you personally believe are on the same level as jones when they signed?
To me it's only Gurley for sure and maybe Johnson. I believe both had injuries after signing. And I would have said bell if he hadn't sat out a year before signing that deal but with the year off I wouldn't put him on the jones level...

So while I agree that if there's a pattern perhaps you should take heed, I don't agree that those guys are comps to Aaron jones and thus I don't think most of those teams were making the "right play"when they signed them to big money deals.

I believe you should only sign blue chip players to top of market deals, regardless of position. Now you pointed out the guys that I believe are comps to jones have just recently signed contracts. Kamara and mccaffery. Even cook and elliot are a lot closer to jones and maybe I wouldn't say they as good of comps to jones as the first 2 but they are on the same level. As is Henry, who is unquestionably a blue chip player. Mixon to me is the tier below

And to be honest I never thought even when you first posted this, that eckler was a comp to jones or that jones would sign a contract in the neighborhood of eckler. I get where you were coming from eckler is kind of a poor man's aaron jones, but it was clearly very wishful thinking... it's just the eye test tells you jones is on a whole nother level. Just as it does with mccaffrey and kamara

I would say Bell, Gurley, and Johnson.

But to a certain extent, that question is irrelevant. Because the contracts were commensurate with the level of player. For example, Devonta Freeman was a tier down from those guys, but he also got a contract that was a tier down in price. Gurley's average salary against the cap in the year he signed (2018) was 8.1%. Freeman's was 4.9%.

The larger point is that, regardless of how good they were to begin with, the vast majority of running backs have regressed while on second contracts, and thus ended up being bad investments. Blue chip backs were not immune to this trend. Jones might end up being immune. I could see it. But that risk is very real.

I would counter your argument that you pay blue chip players, regardless of position with this: you sign players that are going to benefit your team in terms of value. And value has to be determined both by cost and benefit. So the question would be whether Jones will benefit the Packers more than he costs. But what has complicated things is the shrinking cap and rising market price. Jones' projected cost has gone from 8-10M to 12-15M, while at the same time the Packers have less room to work with. So in addition to the actual cost, the opportunity cost has grown. Signing Jones could well mean not signing someone else at a more important position.

So I see giving him, say, 4/50/25 as being a cost that will likely outweigh the benefit.

 

[Dantés]

Well you're right in that his price has gone up significantly from what they could have gotten him to sign for prior to the season. But I hope you're wrong about the last part.
I just can't see them allowing him to leave at worst why would they not just franchise tag him?

I'm not saying that could never work, but what would make it hard is that all 12M (or whatever it ends up being) would have to be fit in the 2021 cap, which is going to be dropping by 25M.

 

[thequick12]

If they don't have the financial wherewithal to keep Jones, they could still potentially keep Williams or some other veteran on a cheaper contract.

2 years, 5M for Jamaal Williams, Tevin Coleman, or Mike Davis would be a lot more manageable on the cap than 4 years, 50M for Aaron Jones.

That is a good perspective definitely way more manageable but remember when aaron jones had 1 carry I think against the Texans and it was a 20 yard td to win the game...jamal williams, tevin coleman, Mike davis etc doesn't make that play...

 

[Dantés]

That is a good perspective definitely way more manageable but remember when aaron jones had 1 carry I think against the Texans and it was a 20 yard td to win the game...jamal williams, tevin coleman, Mike davis etc doesn't make that play...

Yeah, if they signed a veteran like that, I would still expect them to draft someone.

 

[sschind]

The fact that it didn't work out doesn't change the fact that it was the right move for their respective teams to resign them. Now I'm not sure what happened with johnson but clearly gurley got injured. What your doing is results based thinking and that's not the way you should think about gambling decisions. And nfl free agency is a lot like gambling to me. Do you keep making the right moves whether you get unlucky or not because you're gonna get unlucky certainly but if you continue making the right moves in the long run you'll come out ahead

That’s an odd comment given that the first poll was 70/30 and this one is now 50/50. And I made this thread because I... changed my mind.

A 3 million dollar difference in annual salary could be the reason some people changed their minds. The first poll was around 7 million if I am not mistaken. This one is for 11. I was all over the 7 million and I would still come down on the side of resigning him at 11 although I'd be a bit more leery of it.

I wonder how many of these mega deals (say 15 million a year or more) are going to turn out well for the team in the long run regardless of the position. Top WRs are making bank and how many of them are instrumental in helping their teams win the SB.

 

[jon]

Only running back we have on contract next year is Dillon right?

Really?
When I voted to keep Jones, I didn't know this. Now I want to vote to keep him again.

 

[Snoops]

Really?
When I voted to keep Jones, I didn't know this. Now I want to vote to keep him again.

Yes I believe. If they are a trying to be this run first team letting jones go imo would be dumb I get the salary cap but jones has proved himself. Bahk and jones should be 1.a and 1.b priority to be resigned. Linsley is gone I think and if it came down to jones or king king should be well on his way... but they should have resigned jones way before cuz I don’t wanna think this but he is more than likely gone this year and it sucks

 

[tynimiller]

I didn't say anyone was saying he wasn't a blue chip player...I said you don't let blue chip players leave and when you do it can change everything.

Packers blue chip players
Rodgers
Bakh
Adams
Z. Smith
Alexander
Jones
Jenkins

Any additions or arguments? To me that's all they have for blue chip players, 7 which isn't bad but you wanna add to that # not deplete it

Sorry was MIA for a bit...Sorry but you forgot quite possibly someone that to the position overall in the league could be argued is higher in that regard than any player we have save maybe Bahk.

Kenny Clark is a BEAST and you spell blue for him with a capital B.