TD passes

[Deleted member 6794]

If a QB had one game 20/40 145 yards, 5 TD's 3 Int., would that be a great performance because he had 5 TD's ?
I don't think that it would be a high QB rating.

This has been a point that I have wondered about for a long time. It came to mind again in the Chiefs game when they hyped Rogers 5 TD's. Taking nothing away from Rodgers of course !

Only looking at a single number like TD passes doesn't provide a meaningful evaluation of a QB's performance. You have to include completion percentage, passing yards and interceptions as well as the overall performance by the offense.

 

[HardRightEdge]

What is the best way to measure a QB's success ? QB Rating ?

If you had to settle on one single stat, which is certainly not necessary, QB Rating is as good as anything else.

ESPN's QBR ventures into the realm of advanced analytics, with black box formulations that attempt to address the question you posed in your original post in this thread, as described in the following link which, quite frankly, I did not read in it's entirety:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating

As you can see, it is an involved endeavor that attempts to account for the point value of a particular play and the QB's contribution to that play. I'm skeptical of such stats, given (1) the high level of subjectivity, (2) historical analysis of the point value associated with a play when the game is constantly evolving and (3) they're not showing me their black box spreadsheet. I might have other concerns if I studied and ruminated on the thing in its entirety.

Interestingly, in the final analysis, QBR ends up being fairly closely correlated to QB Rating. Does it really matter whether Rodgers is 3rd. in QBR by a narrow margin...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

...or 1st. in QB Rating by a wider margin?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating

I observed during camp that clips of Rodgers showed quicker footwork and release, if that was even possible. I think we're seeing that now. His command of the field is at a pinnacle (or at least his pinnacle so far). When factoring in the intangibles, to my eye the QB Rating better reflects what he's done on the field in these first 3 games...about as good as you're ever going to see.

 

[Pack-12]

TDs aren't necessarily overrated but yards are sometimes underrated I think because of the "only points matter" type of mentality. Over a large sample yeah yards don't really matter much but if you are talking about a single play or drive or whatever a receiver who took a 60 yard pass to the 1 yard line is just as or more responsible for those points for the team as a (for example) TE to went uncovered and caught an easy 1 yard TD on the next play. As with all things context is key but automatically dismissing something because "scoreboard" is just kind of lazy and dumb IMO.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If a QB had one game 20/40 145 yards, 5 TD's 3 Int., would that be a great performance because he had 5 TD's ?
I don't think that it would be a high QB rating.

This has been a point that I have wondered about for a long time. It came to mind again in the Chiefs game when they hyped Rogers 5 TD's. Taking nothing away from Rodgers of course !

Maybe this helps:

Plug in your numbers into the calculators in either of these links...

http://www.primecomputing.com/
http://football.stassen.com/pass-eff/

and you'll get a 67.2 QB Rating.

It's a fairly simple formula that takes into account only 4 stats:

Completion percentage
Yards per attmept
TDs as a percentage of passes thrown
INTs as a a percentage of passes thrown

The 5 TDs could not overcome the dismal numbers in the other 3 factors.

Or consider the following:

If you subtract a TD and 45 yards (swapping out a 5 yd. TD for a 50 yard non-TD in your original example), the passer rating goes down marginally to 65.6.

This is consistent with my view of the importance of TDs and the value of the QB Rating formula.

 

[Vrill]

TD/INT ratio is the best thing to look at for QB's. You see a lot of QB's throw for 35 TD's but also 20 INT's.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

TD/INT ratio is the best thing to look at for QB's. You see a lot of QB's throw for 35 TD's but also 20 INT's.

That's a good one to look at. Rodgers leads all QBs in a landslide on that one with a career ratio of 4.14 as of now with Brady being second at 2.80. Peyton is in third with 2.26.

 

[HardRightEdge]

TD/INT ratio is the best thing to look at for QB's. You see a lot of QB's throw for 35 TD's but also 20 INT's.

It's better to look at the TD% of passes and INT% of passes together, accounting for 2 of the 4 factors in QB rating.

Otherwise, a QB who throws 20 TDs and 2 INTs on 500 throws would have has the same TD-to-INT ratio as one who throws for 40 TDs and 4 INTs with the same number of throws. Which would you prefer? I'd take the latter. The QB rating reflects this.

Example:

500 passes / 300 completions / 3800 yards / 20 TDs / 2 INTs = 95.4 QB Rating

500 passes / 300 completions / 3800 yards / 40 TDs / 4 INTs = 107.1 QB Rating

Further, the QB rating also accounts for things that happen when the throw is neither a TD nor an INT...yards per pass and completion percentage...productivity and efficiency.

The QB Rating is, I suppose, old and boring. But it holds up. The only other viable statistical alternatives are advanced analytics that involve subjectivity on the part of the play grader or mystery algorithms that attempt to adjust for game/score/down/distance situations. In either case, you surrender to expert opinion while having no basis to evaluate it...and that is a black box.

 

[AFan77]

Are TD passes an over rated statistic ? I would think a 50 yard non TD pass is much more impressive than a 5 yard TD pass.

My niners rank 11th on redzone attempts per game, and 32nd in points per game (a lowly 15).

All stats need context, but I'll agree with some of the other members here, I have no problem with placing a statistical emphasis on scoring. Some Qb's get into the congested redzone and simply can't function.

 

[Sky King]

Even in fantasy football the 5 yd. TD would count for more than the 50 yard pass completion (with no TD) by .5 points. At least it does in the FFL that I participate in with my son and his whipper-snapper friends.

BTW, I'm all alone in 1st place -- teaching the young know-it-all crowd a lesson or two about knowledge, wisdom and guile.