Overall Graft Grades, PF "experts"

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

I don't buy it. Providing a guy is getting enough snaps to learn and ply his trade, you have a pretty good idea of his trajectory by the end of year 2. If he's stuck on the bench behind some stud that's another matter. Even so, the third year jump is not very common.

The fact of the matter is a team can't afford to wait for guys to break out in year 4 even if on rare occasions it happens. Then he's in his contract year, following which you have to pay him, with his value proposition plummetings, or he signs elsewhere.

When looking at any previous 4 drafts you have to see a large cluster of good-to-great players across those years to make this thing work.

This is expecially true of teams with QBs on mega-contracts, worse if there is also a second player on a mega-contract. Then there's little margin for error with poor or late developing draft picks.

[/QUOTE]


I agree with you on Jenkins Summers and Savage. We'll know by the end of next year. With the rest of the draft class, I'm not so sure.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Then the reason anyone should be posting to this thread is...?

Especially since it seems to want to know how our "graft" grade

All kidding aside, nothing wrong with grading the picks, but as most of us know, that is a forever sliding scale up, down and sideways. People putting too much emphasis on grades right now and either thinking the sky is falling or we are locked into a Super Bowl aren't looking at the history of just where these things go.

I know I am stating the obvious, but for a few, I felt the need to say it, before they take that final step off the cliff.

 

[Pugger]

I don’t rank the teams in the draft like all the pro analysts that give the average team a B+etc.. I think many teams have internal concerns just like us. I think we were in the C/C+ range until day 3 and we brought that back into a low B grade range. That’s better than 20 teams or so but worse than 11. I’m grading based on position fits and player grades vs where they were drafted overall. We also had the advantage along with just 3 other teams of working with two 1st rounders. That’s a huge advantage.

We missed at not picking a true OT and at least one WR in a deep WR class. There was several really solid prospects going into round 4-5 but we shot our load with Savage. “Little Missile” better be the Safety version of Alexander or we overspent. I hope I’m wrong though.
We just about missed at RB, but we got lucky when we passed on Dexter at 151 and he went all the way around the board and then some. That was a gift on a silver platter and him being there ear shot of #200 was ridiculous. Before that we were C+

B-

Was this a deep WR class? I never got that impression but what do I know?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Was this a deep WR class? I never got that impression but what do I know?

I don't think it was "deep" in the sense of sure things, but deep in the sense of a large number of guys that could be really good, average or bust. Thus, the reason why there was a big run on WR's in the 2nd Round.

 

[AmishMafia]

You can't grade most classes for 3-4 years.

Soooooo, if you personally dont know if these players will work out or not, while the hell do you have 450 posts over the last 3 months discussing the merits of these same players?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Soooooo, if you personally dont know if these players will work out or not, while the hell do you have 450 posts over the last 3 months discussing the merits of these same players?

I suppose because it’s fun to speculate, with the operative word being “speculate”. Most fans do it, but in the end, it’s largely for amusement.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Disappointed:

• The 12th pick. I actually have always been impressed by Gary, so I'm not complaining about the choice. But I was bummed that all of my top choices were gone, and they literally went in order from picks 8-11.
• This was a pretty strong tackle class, and the Packers didn't come away with one. A Kaleb McGary or Max Scharping might have solved the RT issue a year in advance.
• Losing the extra picks. If Savage was their #1 safety by a good margin, I'm fine with the moves. But if was a bummer to see them miss out on extra lotto tickets.

Excited:

• Rashan Gary is a total freakshow, and not just at the combine. As a consolation prize, he's pretty exciting. He and Za'Darius can play inside/outside interchangeably.
• I was pretty skeptical of Lane Taylor in this offense, and was concerned that he might hold the running game back while remaining a liability in protection. Elgton Jenkins really alleviates those concerns.
• Value-- other than Dexter Williams, I didn't watch the later round picks. But from what I've read, Keke, Hollman, and Williams are all more talented than their draft slots.

As to your first point, I share your frustration. I was almost certain Hockenson or Bush would be there at 12. Alas, not to be. Gary was the best of the rest in my opinion, so somewhat of a consolation prize. As for Savage, I didn’t even have him on my list, and didn’t think Gluten would opt for a S in rd 1, much less trade up for one, given the weak class. Well, here’s hoping these guys make a real impact next year. Time is not on out side.

 

[gbgary]

It's definitely possible that Savage wouldn't have been there at #30 but there's no way of knowing it for a fact.

so you're questioning gute, his source(s), and info? ooookaaay.

 

[AmishMafia]

I suppose because it’s fun to speculate, with the operative word being “speculate”. Most fans do it, but in the end, it’s largely for amusement.

The point is, he has an opinion up till the draft and suddenly, he has no idea or opinion if they are any good.

He passionately argued with me 10+ posts on why he thinks Rashan Gary was a good pick. Now 2 days later, he has no opinion. Makes no sense to me.

 

[GleefulGary]

Soooooo, if you personally dont know if these players will work out or not, while the hell do you have 450 posts over the last 3 months discussing the merits of these same players?

Because I can guess! And it's fun. I didn't say we can't/shouldn't discuss it, just that it takes a couple years to really see how things go.

So much of it is team fit. A really good player could go to a team that doesn't use him right. Take Parris Campbell for example. Frank ***** will know how to utilize his talents really well. Mike McCarthy, on the other hand, would not. The player hasn't changed, it's just the utilization of the player. I think that's the biggest reason to me that it takes a couple years to fully analyze, and these guys obviously aren't all finished products right now.

 

[GleefulGary]

The point is, he has an opinion up till the draft and suddenly, he has no idea or opinion if they are any good.

He passionately argued with me 10+ posts on why he thinks Rashan Gary was a good pick. Now 2 days later, he has no opinion. Makes no sense to me.

I probably didn't explain that very well, especially with such a short sentence. You're...taking a lot of liberty with it though.

We can, and should discuss, because it's fun. We can, and should, have opinions. We shouldn't act like our opinions are facts, and I try not to do that. What I meant is that we can have an idea of what a class is like, and can discuss it, but for the most part, we won't have full answers for at least a couple years.

Fwiw, I'm just ok with the Gary pick. The guys I wanted were picked before, unfortunately. He's certainly not one of my favorite players, at all. It was a fine pick given the players available.

 

[swhitset]

Especially since it seems to want to know how our "graft" grade

All kidding aside, nothing wrong with grading the picks, but as most of us know, that is a forever sliding scale up, down and sideways. People putting too much emphasis on grades right now and either thinking the sky is falling or we are locked into a Super Bowl aren't looking at the history of just where these things go.

I know I am stating the obvious, but for a few, I felt the need to say it, before they take that final step off the cliff.

You are kinder than I ... I have to suppress my urge to push them off.

 

[AmishMafia]

Amish Grade: B+ We got some great players who all seem to be good value at their picks. Only one trade, Gute was aggressive in the 1st. I expected to get more offensive help, hopefully our defense will be much improved.

Rashan Gary - I hope it works out, but when production doesnt match capabilities, something is wrong. Supporters provide lots of excuses, but it still is a big red flag. My home office is in Detroit, and I know lots of Michigan and Lions fans. I got texts from one who was very happy we picked Gary. I think we should have traded back and grabbed an OT, or that could have been our Savage pick. I like the pick more than when it happened, but it still gets a C from me. Just hate taking a player with so much risk that high.

Savage - love the player. I mocked him late 2nd for us. I am going to trust Gutes belief that he would not make it to 30. I wonder, though, if Gute knew the safeties that ended up being available in the 2nd and 3rd round, if he would have done it differently. I'm thinking not. Which makes me appreciate Gute a bit for being aggressive to get a particular player who's skillset is fairly unique and just may be a pivitol player to make the system work. A

Elgton Jenkins - I really like this player. He is an outstanding athlete who can get to the 2nd level. He is good at run blocking and may instantly be our 3rd best run blocker behind Linsley and Spriggs. All three block very well in space and can get to the 2nd level. I thought we should go a G/T type and we got a C/G type. I think Taylor needs to be replaced. He played poorly last season but may have been injury related. A

Jace Sternberger TE - big surprise to me. Packers seem to value athleticism very highly and Jace is not that. He is a very effective receiver, with great hands and knows how to run a route and g,et open. I expect him to be good. Low ceiling, high floor type. B

Kingsly Keke DE - Another guy who does not meet the athletic metrics that i thought were in place, so I don't know much about him. The reviews I read were all very interesting and unique takes. All I can say is I'm excited about him more than any of the other day 3 guys because he sounds like a very unique talent that with a creative DC, opposing teams are going to have a tough time. A

Ka'Dar Hollman CB - Didn't know anything about this guy. Very good athlete with a lot of raw talent. Went to a prep school for 2 years and then transfered to Toledo and was a walk-on for the football team. He is aggressive and tough, so maybe he can make the practice squad. He is a late bloomer and is a very hard worker, so maybe he makes it. I really like thee picks of raw but hard working great athletes. Perfect 6th round pick who if you hit, you have a star. B

Dexter Williams RB - 4th highest RB RAS athletes this year. I expected him to be drafted much sooner. Some off field stuff, which I didn't know about till after the pick. But this is a great pick. He is a very good player who is a smart runner with patience and great vision. If the character issues crop up, we are only out a 6th. If he has his siht together, we have a guy who is close to Aaron Jones, but much more durable. A

Ty Summers ILB - Elite athlete. RAS is 9.9 (10 is perfect). Had him in my draft contest, but deleted him to make way for a Kicker, whom I was sure the Pack was going to take. He can do it all physically, but just doesn't seem to have much in the way of instincts. Again, he gets coached up and becomes effective, we have an amazing player with only a 7th round cost. A





Work in progress

 

[gbgary]

i'm sure gary's a good player. you don't get this far if you're not. what kills me is if he's picked at twenty-something he's a great pick, but at 12 he a bust. insane! can the Packers make him a better player? will he do what it takes to get better? will his shoulder hold him back? has he topped out? time will tell. i'm thinking he'll be good. someone with that skill set succeeds more than not.

 

[AmishMafia]

i'm sure gary's a good player. you don't get this far if you're not. what kills me is if he's picked at twenty-something he's a great pick, but at 12 he a bust. insane! can the Packers make him a better player? will he do what it takes to get better? will his shoulder hold him back? has he topped out? time will tell. i'm thinking he'll be good. someone with that skill set succeeds more than not.

High draft picks bust every year. Not sure why you think it strange to take draft position into account. At 20 he would be a fine pick. Why? You are gambling with less chips - expending less draft capital on a player that has a higher likelihood than most to bust. #12 is the highest pick we have had in some time. It worked out horribly that the players I really wanted all were gone. Next up for me was probably Jawaan Taylor, which makes me look bad. But apparently there was a medical that dropped him considerably.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don’t think anyone knows if Savage is there at #30. Clearly Gluten thought not. But his stock was apparently rising, he produced in college, and he’s lights-out fast. A nice complement to Amos, allows Jones to play in the box where he’s most effective, and let’s give Gluten some credit for addressing the weakest unit on D. Savage may prove to be a more impactful pick than Gary. We’ll see.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Because I can guess! And it's fun. I didn't say we can't/shouldn't discuss it, just that it takes a couple years to really see how things go.

So much of it is team fit. A really good player could go to a team that doesn't use him right. Take Parris Campbell for example. Frank ***** will know how to utilize his talents really well. Mike McCarthy, on the other hand, would not. The player hasn't changed, it's just the utilization of the player. I think that's the biggest reason to me that it takes a couple years to fully analyze, and these guys obviously aren't all finished products right now.

Newsflash!!! Mike McCarthy is not here anymore so that speculation is irrelevant.

So I will counter that speculation by saying Matt LaFleur would know how to utilize his talents.

 

[Dantés]

Newsflash!!! Mike McCarthy is not here anymore so that speculation is irrelevant.

So I will counter that speculation by saying Matt LaFleur would know how to utilize his talents.

Newsflash!!! It's called an example. It's to help people like you understand abstract concepts !!!!!!1

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Newsflash!!! It's called an example. It's to help people like you understand abstract concepts !!!!!!1

Oh I understood perfectly what he was saying, and it's irrelevant because Mike McCarthy would not be utilizing him if we had drafted him. It would be Matt LaFleur.


I will say if MM was still the coach and we had gotten Campbell, I would be worried about him trying another Ty Montgomery type of experiment with him and ruining him in the process. That's something I'd have been adamantly against. But I'm pretty sure LaFleur would not do that.

 

[Dantés]

Oh I understood perfectly what he was saying, and it's irrelevant because Mike McCarthy would not be utilizing him if we had drafted him. It would be Matt LaFleur.


I will say if MM was still the coach and we had gotten Campbell, I would be worried about him trying another Ty Montgomery type of experiment with him and ruining him in the process. That's something I'd have been adamantly against. But I'm pretty sure LaFleur would not do that.

If you think an example clarifying a point is irrelevant then you don't understand anywhere close to perfectly.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don’t think anyone knows if Savage is there at #30. Clearly Gluten thought not. But his stock was apparently rising, he produced in college, and he’s lights-out fast. A nice complement to Amos, allows Jones to play in the box where he’s most effective, and let’s give Gluten some credit for addressing the weakest unit on D. Savage may prove to be a more impactful pick than Gary. We’ll see.

I actually watched Gary play in college. I liked him being a 1, I would've taken him at 30 no matter what. I'm not happy about him being taken at 12. I'm also not happy about moving up to 21 for a Safety from a POS big ten school. Sorry to all Maryland fans I offended with that comment, but being sorry doesn't make me wrong.

I agree with you. 12 was too high for Gary, just not enough production, in college no less. Savage looks like a better pick. Built giving up two 4th round picks was expensive. For everyone’s sake, I hope thee guys produce BIGLY come September.

 

[AmishMafia]

I probably didn't explain that very well, especially with such a short sentence. You're...taking a lot of liberty with it though.

We can, and should discuss, because it's fun. We can, and should, have opinions. We shouldn't act like our opinions are facts, and I try not to do that. What I meant is that we can have an idea of what a class is like, and can discuss it, but for the most part, we won't have full answers for at least a couple years.

Fwiw, I'm just ok with the Gary pick. The guys I were picked before, unfortunately. He's certainly not one of my favorite players, at all. It was a fine pick given the players available.

Of course we won't know for sure until it occurs. But whats the point of posting a draft grade of the draft 3 years ago? Nobody does it because everybody already knows. Do we need to be told by a draft analyst that Joey Bosa was a great pick or does everyone pretty much understand that?

I got into it about 10 years ago with a certain draft analyst on ESPN who's article titled 'Draft Grades' gave no draft grades but explained why you had to wait 3 years. My final post was 'if a stock broker had a stock analyst who told him 'some stocks go up and some go down, you never know. But, I can tell you which ones you should have bought 3 years ago. That's a pretty bad analyst.' My posting rights and posts were removed within an hour.

 

[OldSchool101]

I believe giving an F grade overall for this draft is just ludicrous. It’s an attempt to get a reaction crossed with an attempt to protect ones own internal pride (man made). That’s my Opinion.
It lowers expectations so much that there is no way to get hurt.
Keep in mind this is coming from a guy who wanted a mainly Offensive draft. Many of you know my stance on that and I should be screaming in CAPS!

But I’m happy Thank you Father

 

[OldSchool101]

Of course we won't know for sure until it occurs. But whats the point of posting a draft grade of the draft 3 years ago? Nobody does it because everybody already knows. Do we need to be told by a draft analyst that Joey Bosa was a great pick or does everyone pretty much understand that?

I got into it about 10 years ago with a certain draft analyst on ESPN who's article titled 'Draft Grades' gave no draft grades but explained why you had to wait 3 years. My final post was 'if a stock broker had a stock analyst who told him 'some stocks go up and some go down, you never know. But, I can tell you which ones you should have bought 3 years ago. That's a pretty bad analyst.' My posting rights and posts were removed within an hour.

Exactly. It’s taking the timid approach.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

If you think an example clarifying a point is irrelevant then you don't understand anywhere close to perfectly.

And there was no need to bring up that example because McCarthy is not here anymore.