Official Packers @ Miami studs and duds

[Forget Favre]

Interesting article on odds of making 3rd downs in the NCAA: http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...n-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble. The guy used 3rd down instead of 4th by assuming the goal of a first down remains the same in both. If the numbers hold true in the NFL, the success rate of 4th and 6 would be 38%--making the field goal decision the right one by taking a sure 3 points instead of a 62% chance of getting 0.

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Maybe I'm not fully understanding it but my knee jerk reaction from looking at the graph is: Well, duuuuh! Thank you Captain Obvious!

 

[Carl]

you do realize there are defenders on both sides of the ball right?

oh how very condescending. if you can't admit the rather obvious point that knowing whether an offense will run or pass would give the defense an advantage then you just like to argue.

I'm not going to try to break this down any further. We can disagree.

 

[Carl]

oh I think they put up a lot more points than 27 if they had some variation. let's not forget that Miami ranks 22nd in the league in points per game.

Okay. Variation such as? Examples of when the offense was predictable?

 

[Forget Favre]

Just me or did the Faux announcers seem excited for the Packers for anyone else?
Besides the usual praise for Rodgers they would announce who the running back was just about every time.
I don't recall announcers ever doing that before or not as much and I don't think they did it for Miami even once.

 

[Oski]

Okay. Variation such as? Examples of when the offense was predictable?

sweet jesus. I think I made it pretty clear. running the majority of first and second downs in the first 3 quarters.

 

[Carl]

sweet jesus. I think I made it pretty clear. running the majority of first and second downs in the first 3 quarters.

Really? Here's what I posted earlier in this same thread:

"Where does the run, run perception keep coming from? And how it is automatically bad just by doing it?

Happened two weeks and someone pointed out they went run, run, pass on only 9/22 series.

I don't remember much of that today, so I looked through the play by play to confirm. Here are the number of times they started a series with run, run:

1st quarter: 3
2nd quarter: 2
3rd quarter: 1
4th quarter: 0
Total: 6/29 (Excluded the kneel to end the half and entire last drive as doing as doing run, run was not on option then.)

And out of those 6, they picked up the first down on 4 of those series. In other words, in only 2/27 series did they do run, run and it didn't work out for them."

If you don't believe that, go to ESPN.com yourself and look as the play by play. I'll admit, I could have slightly mis-counted, but nowhere near to the point where it would approach the majority.

 

[Carl]

sweet jesus. I think I made it pretty clear. running the majority of first and second downs in the first 3 quarters.

If you want only the first three quarters, it's 6/23 series doing run, run, with 4 of those 6 working.

 

[Oski]

If you want only the first three quarters, it's 6/23 series doing run, run, with 4 of those 6 working.

I count 65% of the first downs as runs. All either up the middle or off the right or left tackle. you were saying?

 

[Carl]

I count 65% of the first downs as runs. All either up the middle or off the right or left tackle. you were saying?

You just said, " I think I made it pretty clear. running the majority of first and second downs in the first 3 quarters " and now you're changing it to just first down...

 

[Oski]

You just said, " I think I made it pretty clear. running the majority of first and second downs in the first 3 quarters " and now you're changing it to just first down...

maybe you have unlimited time to research, but I do not.

 

[Carl]

maybe you have unlimited time to research, but I do not.

It took about 5 minutes to scroll down the play by play and count.

But either way, your statement that the offense was predictable by running too much on first and second down is very incorrect.

 

[Oski]

It took about 5 minutes to scroll down the play by play and count.

But either way, your statement that the offense was predictable by running too much on first and second down is very incorrect.

65% on first down isn't predictable?

 

[Carl]

65% on first down isn't predictable?

Again, you said "I think I made it pretty clear. running the majority of first and second downs in the first 3 quarters."

We were discussing FIRST AND SECOND DOWN, not just first down because that's what you brought up. I brought up facts that showed your statement was false and concluded with, "Your statement that the offense was predictable by running too much on FIRST AND SECOND DOWN is very incorrect.

All I did was debunk those two downs as run, run and made no mention of running just on first down.

 

[Oski]

Again, you said "I think I made it pretty clear. running the majority of first and second downs in the first 3 quarters."

We were discussing FIRST AND SECOND DOWN, not just first down because that's what you brought up. I brought up facts that showed your statement was false and concluded with, "Your statement that the offense was predictable by running too much on FIRST AND SECOND DOWN is very incorrect.

All I did was debunk those two downs as run, run and made no mention of running just on first down.

So I remembered incorrectly about running it on both first and second down the majority of times. Happy?

Can we now talk about the fact that running it almost exclusively on first down might potentially hamper the offense? or are you going to give me some garbage how running it off the left tackle is completely different to the defense than running it up the middle?

 

[Carl]

So I remembered incorrectly about running it on both first and second down the majority of times. Happy?

Can we now talk about the fact that running it almost exclusively on first down might potentially hamper the offense? or are you going to give me some garbage how running it off the left tackle is completely different to the defense than running it up the middle?

Remembered incorrectly and ignored me pointing it out two more times before finally acknowledging it the third time..

First of all, 65% is nowhere near almost exclusively. Secondly, there was a 3rd quarter drive in which the Packers ran on 5/6 first downs and they scored a TD on that drive. Third, they had separate first down runs of 5 yards, 9, 10, 11, and 12. In no way did those runs hamper the offense. Therefore, if the offense was hampered by running on first down too much, it was minimal, especially considering they scored a solid 27.

 

[Oski]

Remembered incorrectly and ignored me pointing it out two more times before finally acknowledging it the third time..

First of all, 65% is nowhere near almost exclusively. Secondly, there was a 3rd quarter drive in which the Packers ran on 5/6 first downs and they scored a TD on that drive. Third, they had separate first down runs of 5 yards, 9, 10, 11, and 12. In no way did those runs hamper the offense. Therefore, if the offense was hampered by running on first down too much, it was minimal, especially considering they scored a solid 27.

are you always this pissy?

So it works on one drive and that makes it ok? what about all the stalled drives in the first half? once again, Miami gives up an average 0f 25 points a game. 27 points isn't solid, it's average.

 

[PackwillBEback]

Studs:
C. Hayward
H. Clinton-Dix
A. Rodgers
T.J. Lang
D. Adams
A. Quarless


Duds:
B. Jones
Rest of the O-line
E. Lacy
M. M.

 

[Carl]

are you always this pissy?

So it works on one drive and that makes it ok? what about all the stalled drives in the first half? once again, Miami gives up an average 0f 25 points a game. 27 points isn't solid, it's average.

I just annoyed when I have to repeat myself.

I also pointed out successful first down runs. Didn't just mention the one drive.

Right now, the Packers are 8th in the leagues with 26.8 points per game. Twenty-seven even would put them still at 8, which is significantly better than average.

It's hard to argue against the results.

 

[Oski]

I just annoyed when I have to repeat myself.

I also pointed out successful first down runs. Didn't just mention the one drive.

Right now, the Packers are 8th in the leagues with 26.8 points per game. Twenty-seven even would put them still at 8, which is significantly better than average.

It's hard to argue against the results.

and yesterday they played a bad D and scored right in line with their average scoring. what does that tell you about the gameplan?

 

[Carl]

and yesterday they played a bad D and scored right in line with their average scoring. what does that tell you about the gameplan?

It shows whatever they did was slightly better than what the other teams did.

 

[Oski]

It shows whatever they did was slightly better than what the other teams did.

the mighty offenses of the bills, raiders, and chiefs?

 

[PFanCan]

Thanks PFanCan. I will try and post more.

Funny thing is that I actually agree with what you wrote in the quote box.

Just don't hack my original post, or I get a little upset...

 

[red4tribe]

I shouldn't have forgotten Micah Hyde as a stud, had a couple of nice punt returns including one that gave us good field position on that last drive.

 

[Carl]

the mighty offenses of the bills, raiders, and chiefs?

Leave out Tom Brady and the Patriots on purpose?

Anyway, the bottom line is the that offense scored enough points to win. Could they have scored more? Probably, but also could have put up less.

They won the game. There's no need to be nitpicky and dig for issues.

 

[Oski]

Leave out Tom Brady and the Patriots on purpose?

Anyway, the bottom line is the that offense scored enough points to win. Could they have scored more? Probably, but also could have put up less.

They won the game. There's no need to be nitpicky and dig for issues.

Only because I figured you might still think they were good. Which they aren't.

Winning is great, but that doesn't mean he isn't too conservative. Any coach with Rodgers is going to win most of his games.