Official Packers @ Miami studs and duds

[Deleted member 6794]

Interesting article on odds of making 3rd downs in the NCAA: http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...n-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble. The guy used 3rd down instead of 4th by assuming the goal of a first down remains the same in both. If the numbers hold true in the NFL, the success rate of 4th and 6 would be 38%--making the field goal decision the right one by taking a sure 3 points instead of a 62% chance of getting 0.

The success rate on 4th and 6 in the NFL over the last ten years is at 34.1%.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Can we now talk about the fact that running it almost exclusively on first down might potentially hamper the offense? or are you going to give me some garbage how running it off the left tackle is completely different to the defense than running it up the middle?

The Packers have passed the ball on 50.3% of the first downs this season. So you´re incorrect about them running it almost exclusively on first down as well.

 

[JBlood]

The success rate on 4th and 6 in the NFL over the last ten years is at 34.1%.

Thanks. That pretty much agrees with the 4th down calculator of .32 probability of success.

 

[PackerDNA]

The success rate on 4th and 6 in the NFL over the last ten years is at 34.1%.

Actually, at first glance I'm surprised it's that high.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Actually, at first glance I'm surprised it's that high.

Source: Pro Football Reference's play index

 

[longtimefan]

Source: Pro Football Reference's play index

Can you supply the link?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Can you supply the link?

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...esult=&margin_min=&margin_max=&order_by=yards

 

[TJV]

This is a link to "Eye in the Sky" from Packer Update. Of course I don't agree with everything he posts, but the guy who does these reviews, Dusty Evely, provides some good insights IMO. http://packerupdate.net/?p=36843

 

[NOMOFO]

I'm not gonna lie... sometimes I scream at the TV "why the he## are we running the ball. We have the best QB in football!!!"

.... but we continue to win AND here we are going into another game where the opposition knows they need to honor the run because we're going to do it. THAT is a big plus obviously and pays benefits in the pass game. Our play action would not be nearly as good without it. Stating the obvious I realize but apparently it's not so obvious to some.

 

[PackerDNA]

I'm not gonna lie... sometimes I scream at the TV "why the he## are we running the ball. We have the best QB in football!!!"

.... but we continue to win AND here we are going into another game where the opposition knows they need to honor the run because we're going to do it. THAT is a big plus obviously and pays benefits in the pass game. Our play action would not be nearly as good without it. Stating the obvious I realize but apparently it's not so obvious to some.

True enough. And even though the team hasn't been very effective running the ball this season, unlike in years past the threat of running is legit, so it must be honored.