MLF decision making process

[adambr2]

I'm beginning to have my doubts as well.

You don’t have to be bad to get fired. That’s the quickest way. The other way is winning nothing for a long enough period of time.

MLF is in his 7th season. How many current NFL coaches have been in their positions for 10+ years with no Super Bowl appearances?

His days are numbered if we don’t win. You don’t go all-in for Micah Parsons to be stuck in the middle of the NFC again. Especially with a new guy running the show.

 

[gopkrs]

Well this season is not over. imho. But I do think LaPew has to start changing up his offensive game plan or it will be.

 

[OldSchool101]

I disagree with this. I think Rhyan looked better than Jenkins. Not saying he played perfect, because he did not, but at least he got his head up before shotgun snaps—something the Jenkins was horrible at.

I didn’t go snap by snap so take this with a grain of salt. However Rhyan was absolutely beaten in that 4th n 1. His guy was a yard into the backfield before Rhyan set his feet.

That said. I actually agree that Elgton was nit a good fit Center. I know it seems logical you can just move around but he didn’t grade well and took some really necessary flags that you can’t have at Center. Outside chance is he grows into that but doubtful.

Let me just offer. I really appreciate Elgton and what he did for the team. He highly likely played his last game for us. I don’t ever want to see him at Center though I actually believe Monk could perform similar at a fraction of the $$$.

Imo Elgton going to Center was 1 of the biggest errors of 2025. In hindsight. Leave Elgton at LG. We created 2 problems trying to fix one problem. Probably should’ve just resigned Myers on a cheap $2m 1yr deal and have Monk or another option have a compete at Starter. Worst case you got Myers cheap backup $$ who can come in if you go 4-5 games with any issues at Center. Would’ve saved like $20Mil yearly, which is near in line Davante Adams income

 

[mradtke66]

I didn’t go snap by snap so take this with a grain of salt. However Rhyan was absolutely beaten in that 4th n 1. His guy was a yard into the backfield before Rhyan set his feet.

I put more blame on Morgan for that one. Secondary fault could be assigned to Tom for not doubling long enough. I really think the mistake was having Muskgrave 1:1 with the end (number 50.). Watch the replay here. Rhyan took his man to the left and absolutely buried him. TBF, I expect him to. Pretty sure his man was the MIKE.

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That said. I actually agree that Elgton was nit a good fit Center.

I think he could have been had we moved him earlier in his career.

Let me just offer. I really appreciate Elgton and what he did for the team. He highly likely played his last game for us. I don’t ever want to see him at Center though I actually believe Monk could perform similar at a fraction of the $$$.

I too am hopeful that Monk might be close to as-good, but until we see him do it, it's just hope.

Imo Elgton going to Center was 1 of the biggest errors of 2025. In hindsight. Leave Elgton at LG.

I am coming around to the idea that Jenkins got old and moving him to center was an attempt to extract value from the last "real" year in his contract.

EDIT: I've watched it like 10 more times. Ryhan's man was the backside DT and he buried him. Tom took the playside linebacker. The play failed with Muskgrave's (lack of) block on 50.

 

[Magooch]

I am coming around to the idea that Jenkins got old and moving him to center was an attempt to extract value from the last "real" year in his contract.

This is absolutely where I land. Maybe it's a chicken-vs-egg type of thing. I have seen some suggest (Not necessarily saying this is what you were trying to say @OldSchool101 ) that Jenkins started to decline once we moved him to center. I see it the other way around...Jenkins had already begun to decline and we were basically attempting to slow the slide.

Seems like his pass pro can still be decent at times but he is basically useless in the run game. Last year even at guard he was something like PFF's 70th ranked G in run blocking

 

[OldSchool101]

I too am hopeful that Monk might be close to as-good, but until we see him do it, it's just hope.

Listen. The team preaches about next man up. The ideal to have no drop off from a starter to the next guy up. Monk is an experienced Center after playing 5 seasons in College at mostly Center and some Guard.

The only concern for me regarding Monk is his injury status. He should be a primary candidate. Rhyan just is not all that good. He’s Royce Newman 2.0 imo.

 

[mradtke66]

Listen. The team preaches about next man up. The ideal to have no drop off from a starter to the next guy up. Monk is an experienced Center after playing 5 seasons in College at mostly Center and some Guard.

The only concern for me regarding Monk is his injury status. He should be a primary candidate. Rhyan just is not all that good. He’s Royce Newman 2.0 imo.

I disagree with the sentiment that Rhyan isn't good enough. He isn't perfect, but the man has that nasty and can move people at the point of attack. I would rather he be playing ahead of Morgan at RG, but with the injury to Jenkins, that ship has sailed.

The comparison is not apple to apples, but just look at the failed 4th down play. Rhyan's man: on his back w/ Rhyan on top of him. Morgans man: disrupted the play, made Jacobs change his line, might have gotten a hand in the tackle.

 

[Magooch]

Here's one thing I'm curious if anyone has any insight on (And it's not really so much a "decision-making" thing probably, but this thread basically just seems to have turned into a discussion on Matt's coaching overall lol)

For a long time now we have heard how Matt's system is so adept at getting guys schemed open. And that has been somewhat true. Let's go back to Love's first year as a starter.

Non-RB pass catchers with at least 100 rec yards.

2023:
Reed 64 rec for 793 yards
Doubs 59 rec for 674 yards
Wicks 39 rec for 581 yards
Watson 28 rec for 422 yards
Kraft 31 rec for 355 yards
Musgrave 34 rec for 352 yards
Melton 16 rec for 218 yards
Heath 15 rec for 125 yards

2024:
Reed 55 rec for 857 yards
Kraft 50 rec for 707 yards
Watson 29 rec for 620 yards
Doubs 46 rec for 601 yards
Wicks 39 rec for 415 yards

And now this year, so far:

Kraft 32 rec for 489 yards
Doubs 35 rec for 446 yards
Golden 23 rec for 262 yards
Watson 8 rec for 188 yards
Wicks 17 rec for 172 yards
Musgrave 12 rec for 111 yards
Heath 6 rec for 86 yards

I guess the numbers are not THAT stark but more than other years - despite having many of the same core guys, and when healthy/available...with 1st rd Golden added to the mix too, it feels a lot more top-heavy. Like it's Kraft, Doubs, and then a lot of question marks. I dunno, I guess I just I felt like in years past we were able to spread the ball around a lot more. Are guys "getting open" just as much and Love isn't seeing them or not having time to hit them? Are defenses adjusting and we're not seeing as many open passcatchers for us in general?

 

[gopkrs]

Here's one thing I'm curious if anyone has any insight on (And it's not really so much a "decision-making" thing probably, but this thread basically just seems to have turned into a discussion on Matt's coaching overall lol)

For a long time now we have heard how Matt's system is so adept at getting guys schemed open. And that has been somewhat true. Let's go back to Love's first year as a starter.

Non-RB pass catchers with at least 100 rec yards.

2023:
Reed 64 rec for 793 yards
Doubs 59 rec for 674 yards
Wicks 39 rec for 581 yards
Watson 28 rec for 422 yards
Kraft 31 rec for 355 yards
Musgrave 34 rec for 352 yards
Melton 16 rec for 218 yards
Heath 15 rec for 125 yards

2024:
Reed 55 rec for 857 yards
Kraft 50 rec for 707 yards
Watson 29 rec for 620 yards
Doubs 46 rec for 601 yards
Wicks 39 rec for 415 yards

And now this year, so far:

Kraft 32 rec for 489 yards
Doubs 35 rec for 446 yards
Golden 23 rec for 262 yards
Watson 8 rec for 188 yards
Wicks 17 rec for 172 yards
Musgrave 12 rec for 111 yards
Heath 6 rec for 86 yards

I guess the numbers are not THAT stark but more than other years - despite having many of the same core guys, and when healthy/available...with 1st rd Golden added to the mix too, it feels a lot more top-heavy. Like it's Kraft, Doubs, and then a lot of question marks. I dunno, I guess I just I felt like in years past we were able to spread the ball around a lot more. Are guys "getting open" just as much and Love isn't seeing them or not having time to hit them? Are defenses adjusting and we're not seeing as many open passcatchers for us in general?

I think everything you are guessing plus not designing new routes or making them too complicated. Also there have been too many disfuctional passes in the flat both to receivers and nowhere to go checkdowns. Though finally against the eagles we did less of that and the one really open at the end of the game...well. imho we will win when we are able to start throwing 10 to 15 yards in the middle. And that will open up the outs.

 

[mradtke66]

I guess the numbers are not THAT stark but more than other years - despite having many of the same core guys, and when healthy/available...with 1st rd Golden added to the mix too, it feels a lot more top-heavy. Like it's Kraft, Doubs, and then a lot of question marks. I dunno, I guess I just I felt like in years past we were able to spread the ball around a lot more. Are guys "getting open" just as much and Love isn't seeing them or not having time to hit them? Are defenses adjusting and we're not seeing as many open passcatchers for us in general?

I'm not sure what point your trying to make exactly. 2023 and 2024 are whole seasons, 2025 is (slightly more than) a half season. If you double the 2025 numbers (which would be 1 game inflated) the numbers look very reasonable? (and obviously, Kraft being out makes this impossible)

2023:
Reed 64 rec for 793 yards
Doubs 59 rec for 674 yards
Wicks 39 rec for 581 yards

Watson 28 rec for 422 yards
Kraft 31 rec for 355 yards
Musgrave 34 rec for 352 yards

Melton 16 rec for 218 yards
Heath 15 rec for 125 yards

2025 (Projected)
Kraft 64 rec for 978 yards
Doubs 70 rec for 892 yards
Golden 46 rec for 524 yards

Watson 16 rec for 376 yards
Wicks 34 rec for 344 yards
Musgrave 24 rec for 222 yards

Heath 12 rec for 172 yards

That looks remarkably similar...

 

[Magooch]

Yeah, fair enough. Like I said, kind of mostly a "feel" thing. Just visually at least it seems like we've been a little more top-heavy between Doubs and Kraft and that in the last few years we've had more random guys "step up" on a given week to make up for production if the #1 or #2 guy wasn't quite there. Totally anecdotal in saying that, however

I don't have time to do the math at the moment but I would be curious to see how it shakes out as a percentage of target shares and relative to total passing attempts. Like...even if the rec (adj. per game) numbers are relatively level, how's the spread of targets look? Are we spreading around targets just as much as in years' past? Maybe something to explore on another day. Just thinking out loud at this point

 

[mradtke66]

Yeah, fair enough. Like I said, kind of mostly a "feel" thing. Just visually at least it seems like we've been a little more top-heavy between Doubs and Kraft and that in the last few years we've had more random guys "step up" on a given week to make up for production if the #1 or #2 guy wasn't quite there. Totally anecdotal in saying that, however

I don't have time to do the math at the moment but I would be curious to see how it shakes out as a percentage of target shares and relative to total passing attempts. Like...even if the rec (adj. per game) numbers are relatively level, how's the spread of targets look? Are we spreading around targets just as much as in years' past? Maybe something to explore on another day. Just thinking out loud at this point

That's a harder question to answer.

Doubs and Kraft entered the season as the obvious 1 and 2. Reed got hurt early, Golden is a rookie. Watson only just came back. I'd expect the targets to be out of whack. For example, Watson is projected (with very dumb math) to have 16 receptions, but he's only played 3 games. With 8 games remaining, if he matches his season low (2 catches per game) he'll end up with 16 more receptions, let alone total. If he averages his high (4) his ends up with 32 more/40 total. If he maintains his low yards per game (45) he'll end up with almost 550 years on the season.

 

[milani]

You don’t have to be bad to get fired. That’s the quickest way. The other way is winning nothing for a long enough period of time.

MLF is in his 7th season. How many current NFL coaches have been in their positions for 10+ years with no Super Bowl appearances?

His days are numbered if we don’t win. You don’t go all-in for Micah Parsons to be stuck in the middle of the NFC again. Especially with a new guy running the show.

The Steelers are content with Tomlin after all these years. The lost trophy they got was 2009 I believe.

 

[milani]

That's a harder question to answer.

Doubs and Kraft entered the season as the obvious 1 and 2. Reed got hurt early, Golden is a rookie. Watson only just came back. I'd expect the targets to be out of whack. For example, Watson is projected (with very dumb math) to have 16 receptions, but he's only played 3 games. With 8 games remaining, if he matches his season low (2 catches per game) he'll end up with 16 more receptions, let alone total. If he averages his high (4) his ends up with 32 more/40 total. If he maintains his low yards per game (45) he'll end up with almost 550 years on the season.

It has been musical chairs with our receivers. 2 in one week, 2 out. Love does not know who he will have anymore.

 

[adambr2]

The Steelers are content with Tomlin after all these years. The lost trophy they got was 2009 I believe.

Yep. But that said, he did win one, and got to another one.

Sean McDermott is probably the most comparable to MLF in the category of “been around awhile, hasn’t won anything.”

 

[adambr2]

I think a lot of people are equating expectations this year with the last two years.

A 7 seed and playoff win in 2023 was outstanding.

A 7 seed and first round exit in 2024 wasn’t great, but it was forgivable.

In 2025, we’re beyond this. You don’t spend two 1st round picks and 184 million on Micah Parsons and get to act like status quo is okay. You do it because you believe you’re one piece away from a Super Bowl team.

 

[OldSchool101]

Here's one thing I'm curious if anyone has any insight on (And it's not really so much a "decision-making" thing probably, but this thread basically just seems to have turned into a discussion on Matt's coaching overall lol)

For a long time now we have heard how Matt's system is so adept at getting guys schemed open. And that has been somewhat true. Let's go back to Love's first year as a starter.

Non-RB pass catchers with at least 100 rec yards.

2023:
Reed 64 rec for 793 yards
Doubs 59 rec for 674 yards
Wicks 39 rec for 581 yards
Watson 28 rec for 422 yards
Kraft 31 rec for 355 yards
Musgrave 34 rec for 352 yards
Melton 16 rec for 218 yards
Heath 15 rec for 125 yards

2024:
Reed 55 rec for 857 yards
Kraft 50 rec for 707 yards
Watson 29 rec for 620 yards
Doubs 46 rec for 601 yards
Wicks 39 rec for 415 yards

And now this year, so far:

Kraft 32 rec for 489 yards
Doubs 35 rec for 446 yards
Golden 23 rec for 262 yards
Watson 8 rec for 188 yards
Wicks 17 rec for 172 yards
Musgrave 12 rec for 111 yards
Heath 6 rec for 86 yards

I guess the numbers are not THAT stark but more than other years - despite having many of the same core guys, and when healthy/available...with 1st rd Golden added to the mix too, it feels a lot more top-heavy. Like it's Kraft, Doubs, and then a lot of question marks. I dunno, I guess I just I felt like in years past we were able to spread the ball around a lot more. Are guys "getting open" just as much and Love isn't seeing them or not having time to hit them? Are defenses adjusting and we're not seeing as many open passcatchers for us in general?

Yes that’s a good question.
Although Keep in mind though we’ve only played 9 games so it looks a larger margin than it is. This goes to an early point I mentioned. Kraft and Reed are arguably our 2 best Receiving targets. Both will miss about 2/3 of the season.

However it appears Reed might be back as early as early December
(3-5 weeks is a reasonable guess). So one benefit is we likely have one of our better 2 producers coming back next month. Secondly, Doubs has stepped up nicely in others absence. His production actually matches Reed from last year on a per game basis!
Thirdly, we’ve barely seen Watson yet in 2025. While someone in here argued he saw normal snaps last week, that doesn’t imply he’s full throttle yet either.

I’ll just say that it’s more likely now that Kraft is gone that several others get an influx in targets over the coming weeks. My guess is we’ll see less TE snaps overall and Watson, Wicks and Golden will see the biggest share increase of targets. Musgrave will get dabbled in more as the season progresses.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

I believe when it was 3rd and 3, the plan was they were in 4 down territory and going for the TD. After not scoring a TD in the Red Zone all day, he wanted to show confidence in the offense, and what better way to do that, than go for the TD. The wind, the fumble, the missed FG, and the fact that drives were at a premium all game, all contributed to why. I was all for the 4 down territory on 3rd and 3, and I'm sure 90% of you all were too... The problem all started with the 3rd down call. We were running the ball well on that drive, so why didn't we run the ball on 3rd down, vs running that bubble screen to Wilson, that lost 5 yards on 3rd down? After that play was blown up, and it went to 4th and 8, the plan should have been blown up too, and the FG should have been kicked... instead MLF pulled out his inner Dan Campbell and stayed with his decision made on 3rd and 3, regardless of the outcome. Going for it on 4th and 3 or less is a whole lot different than 4th and 8... it made you one dimensional, there was no threat to defend the run.

I actually believe that's how it went through MLF's mind, too.

 

[OldSchool101]

Conclusion: I think the natural progression is that when 1 player falls another rises. When Reed went down, those players that rose were Kraft and Doubs. Doubs is on pace to match Reeds 2024 number. Now I’m going to take a slightly different approach. Rather than blaming injuries I’m going to do my best to remain positive and offer a solution.

Now Kraft went down, so who’s the player(s) Queue? who has earned more focus to date? I’d order them Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and believe it or not? Luke Musgrave. We have to overlook Luke some in the blocking arena as he acclimates, but in limited time since Kraft exited Luke looks pretty solid (average) at TE in the passing game and I’ll take average right now.

IMO Matt needs to make some subtle changes in down n distance. First and foremost don’t get desperate with low probability plays at the cusp of entering solid FG range (opponent 33-38 yard line area). If it’s 3rd and 10 or 3rd n 15 it’s ok to go conservative and get 2-4 yards there and make it a 47-53 yard FG try. ESPECIALLY in the first Half if it gives us the lead!! Or if it keeps us inside 1 score when behind. Don’t get jumpy in a 0-0 or 6-13 game like we’ve done. Make it 9-13 and go into Halftime. Make it 3-0 and play keep away and don’t let Philly see the ball until QTR3. Playing the clock and adding 3pts was critical this week and I said it both before and during the game. Scoring points swings momentum, especially in a scoreless game it’s super important to be the first to score.

What did we lose by in both games?? 3pts. Coincidence? No. WE chose to go risky instead of expecting were the better team in Qtrs3-4. The Packers are one of worst 1st Half teams in scoring in the NFL. Get that monkey off our back next week.

 

[Magooch]

I heard Mina Kimes talking about it the other day and I think she put it well - said that Matt often seems to be "playing for third down" in the way he's approaching 1st/2nd down playcalling.

It's funny because I have heard Matt himself explicitly say things like "Scared money don't make money" and "All gas, no brakes". But it seems like lately we have been playing with a lot of "scared money" and it's closer to "all brakes, no gas"....

I've said before too that I think sometimes Matt tends to call plays for a team that he WANTS to have, not the team he actually has. Prior to Kraft's injury, this often felt like he wanted to be a ground-dominant run-first team but IMO we just don't have the line for that. Post-Kraft injury, there's still that in the mix but also this feeling like he's thinking he's still got Kraft out there. Kraft was by FAR our best player at producing YAC. In the first half vs Philly, when passing on 1st or 2nd down, Love's average depth of target was 1.5 yards. Not a typo - one point five yards past the line of scrimmage. And maybe that works if you have a guy like Kraft who can consistently get you more after the catch, but when he's gone, what are we doing?

 

[OldSchool101]

I heard Mina Kimes talking about it the other day and I think she put it well - said that Matt often seems to be "playing for third down" in the way he's approaching 1st/2nd down playcalling.

It's funny because I have heard Matt himself explicitly say things like "Scared money don't make money" and "All gas, no brakes". But it seems like lately we have been playing with a lot of "scared money" and it's closer to "all brakes, no gas"....

I've said before too that I think sometimes Matt tends to call plays for a team that he WANTS to have, not the team he actually has. Prior to Kraft's injury, this often felt like he wanted to be a ground-dominant run-first team but IMO we just don't have the line for that. Post-Kraft injury, there's still that in the mix but also this feeling like he's thinking he's still got Kraft out there. Kraft was by FAR our best player at producing YAC. In the first half vs Philly, when passing on 1st or 2nd down, Love's average depth of target was 1.5 yards. Not a typo - one point five yards past the line of scrimmage. And maybe that works if you have a guy like Kraft who can consistently get you more after the catch, but when he's gone, what are we doing?

This.

Part of that is I don’t feel like we are strong in adapting to our circumstances. When you play a dominant front DL like Cleveland you run 31 times? Really? Pass for 25 attempts but Run 31? Why? To gain 2.5 per carry?? Is it possible after 15-20 attempts at 2 per carry you might realize to switch gears? Too often Matt gets asked about this (it happened one year with Aaron Jones not getting enough attempts) and he actually said “boy I didn’t realize that, it’s something we’ll look at”. Didn’t realize it? Nobody across the entire coaching staff or front office noticed we couldn’t run against Cleveland?? I don’t believe that. I think we are not pliable enough to bend into another direction. There should be a Plan A and Plan B and fans shouldn’t be noticing consistent failure patterns before our coaching staff! Btw when we started running the ball more a few years ago? We went on a steamroll into the Championship game. The fans were right!!

Get off the blinders on 1 game plan. Have an alternating that isn’t so predictable and it might involve throwing the ball 8 times in a row. Be allusive in your design. We talk about misdirection with motion. That’s fine and dandy but I’m seeing very little motion and even less misdirection. The only motion I’m seeing is up jumping offsides. The only misdirection I’m seeing is guys lining up incorrectly.

Then postgame Our only answer seems to be the only thing that’s consistent. “It’s my fault” good! I’m glad YOU took responsibility, now stop it and Get it fixed and start communicating to the players better. We shouldn’t have multiple players saying “we’re not communicating”. That’s week 1-5 type excuses. This isn’t week 3!

 

[Magooch]

Half joking but it reminds me of Coach Boone from Remember the Titans: "I run six plays, split veer. Like novocaine...Just give it time, it always works"

 

[Sanguine camper]

There is not a snowball chance in you know where that a guy as bad as you describe could even come close to the efficiency and ball protection he does...it's fair to not believe he is one of the best or top 10 or what not...but let's not act like he's a thinner version of Jamarcus Russel.

While Love does throw off his back foot, it isn't a consistent bad habit. He makes a lot of throws with better mechanics but sometimes regresses much like Favre did. Both Love and Favre have big arms so they sometimes made a great throw, even when mechanics were bad.

Love has played too good too often for the Packers offensive woes to be due to anything less than mostly bad play calling.

 

[Magooch]

I have to agree with that. We have seen enough out of Love to know that he HAS the quality... and even this year, which many might call a "regression," he's still extremely effective, efficient, and - yes - accurate when he's given opportunity.

But I do feel that play calling has let him down, AND more than that...there are little things that IMO fall on coaching as well. Since Love has taken over, we are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to pre-snap penalties. Situations like this past week on the 4th down call to Jacobs - Love HAS to be given the latitude there to change the play (There have been suggestions, allegedly according to Jacobs, that there simply wasn't another play or "can" call to go back to), and if he IS allowed to make those changes, coaching should be drilling into his head when, why, and how to do that.

I think of a guy like Josh Allen, who was seen as a huge physical talent but by all accounts was arguably worse than Love early on in his career, but with proper coaching he has developed into one of the best in the league.* I don't think Love needs fundamentally "reworked" or something, he doesn't need to reinvent himself, but there are just little things here or there where I feel like he's not quite being coached up in a way that is going to get his best out of him.

*Of course, ironically, his coach now is another guy who has been great in the regular season but faces at least a "warm" seat due to limited success in the postseason... lol

 

[milani]

I have to agree with that. We have seen enough out of Love to know that he HAS the quality... and even this year, which many might call a "regression," he's still extremely effective, efficient, and - yes - accurate when he's given opportunity.

But I do feel that play calling has let him down, AND more than that...there are little things that IMO fall on coaching as well. Since Love has taken over, we are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to pre-snap penalties. Situations like this past week on the 4th down call to Jacobs - Love HAS to be given the latitude there to change the play (There have been suggestions, allegedly according to Jacobs, that there simply wasn't another play or "can" call to go back to), and if he IS allowed to make those changes, coaching should be drilling into his head when, why, and how to do that.

I think of a guy like Josh Allen, who was seen as a huge physical talent but by all accounts was arguably worse than Love early on in his career, but with proper coaching he has developed into one of the best in the league.* I don't think Love needs fundamentally "reworked" or something, he doesn't need to reinvent himself, but there are just little things here or there where I feel like he's not quite being coached up in a way that is going to get his best out of him.

*Of course, ironically, his coach now is another guy who has been great in the regular season but faces at least a "warm" seat due to limited success in the postseason... lol

And unfortunately for the Bills it came in an era of Mahommes and co.