MLF decision making process

[milani]

Hey @Magooch not trying to pick at you agree with most of what you said but this one’s a little shaky.

I think we’d easily be in the bottom 10 out of 32 teams as far as teams getting to redraft our 3 guys against others. None are a WR1 or TE1 imo. At best I’d put Doubs, Wicks and Watson clumped together between an average level WR2 and good WR3 options. Luke has never surpassed average TE2.

We’re really dealing with most teams WR2. WR3 and TE2

The only part we have lacked in recent years is a wide receiver with wing span. Watson comes the closest.

 

[mradtke66]

Pretty much nails it, IMO.

Why is Matt Lafleur the only man in Packerland who does not seem to understand that?

My comment was not meant to be playcalling commentary, but players. Everything gets better with better players.

We fix the run game First by having better run blocking linemen, tight ends, and fullbacks. All the good linemen are on rosters, we lost our best blocking TE to IR, and we don't have a fullback at all.

We punish their coverage choices by having more, better pass catchers. Same tight end problem as above, Golden and Reed are out, and Doubs had to leave the Eagles game due to injury.

There are things that MLF can do to try and work around these, but the first and second counters are missing. We're getting to the point where we have to do something a little more drastic to manufacture solutions. Not saying that we can't do this, but they have their own trade offs. In no particular order:

1. We can bring in an extra lineman to manufacture a run game. I'd like this, but it isn't an every down solution as it takes a man out of pass patterns. And we just lost Jenkins, possibly for the season. Do we have enough linemen to do this well?

2. We can do more rollouts/bootlegs, and again I would like that, but they cut the field in half. That whole "don't throw across the field" thing? You just prematurely increased what "across the field" means.

3. We could go looking for a player that presents as a typical fullback, but I don't know how much of the offense is installed to use one. You can fix that, but if we don't have a lot of practice time with those plays, you have to spend more time getting comfortable with them so something else might suffer. I also don't know if there are any fullbacks out there to be had.

This is not meant to be doom and gloom. These things or something like these things have to be explored. I expect we'll find something to give us a spark. Maybe the shuffling that is going to happen due to Jenkins' injury gives us a more effective line.

 

[Magooch]

As it relates to “decision making process”

- don’t trust your kicker to attempt a 57 yard field goal
- don’t trust your kicker to attempt a 59 yard field goal
- don’t play the guy who has the longest FG in franchise history at 61 yards
- have your kicker attempt a 64 yard field goal and see that his practice attempt with his preferred K ball comes up short
- send him back out to try it again anyways
- lose by 3

Someone walk me through the decision making here.

Some of you may have missed it but posted elsewhere - some folks who were at the game observed McManus in warmup and his max range pre-game was 57 yards. When he tried to push for more distance it'd hook left. Pretty much exactly how it played out last night.

This, in addition it being reported that McManus said this week was the first time he felt "semi healthy" since getting injured a while back.

Much like the 4th-and-8 decision last week, this is another situation where I'd love to see if we have anyone looking at the analytics or if it's just vibes.

A. What is the percent chance that we score off of some sort of Hail Mary or last-ditch non-kicking play?

B. What is the percent chance that McManus - whose record FG is 61 yards, back in 2022 - who has been hurt for the last month - who couldn't hit from beyond 57 yards in warmup - who wasn't trusted to hit from 57 or 59 in game - who attempted from 64 yards and was short - was going to coax an extra 3 yards from his lifetime long and an extra 7 yards from his longest of the day out of his "semi-healthy" legs?

I mean I get that a Hail Mary in that situation is basically a 0.1% chance type of play but I doubt asking McManus to do that was much better odds lol

 

[Magooch]

Hey @Magooch not trying to pick at you agree with most of what you said but this one’s a little shaky.

I think we’d easily be in the bottom 10 out of 32 teams as far as teams getting to redraft our 3 guys against others. None are a WR1 or TE1 imo. At best I’d put Doubs, Wicks and Watson clumped together between an average level WR2 and good WR3 options. Luke has never surpassed average TE2.

We’re really dealing with most teams WR2. WR3 and TE2

I’d put Reed as a low end WR1 to High end WR2 type. Kraft was a high end TE1 but it’s futile to discuss that now.

We’re going to need a slight uptick from Musgrave. We saw that last 2 weeks. There’s some hope there.

We’re going to need 1 of Wicks or Golden to elevate.

IMO the turning point might be can Reed return to form? If he picks up where he left off? We’re back to more league normal at WR room.

Doubs is fine
Watson should be ok. I know he’s playing snaps but it takes a minute to ramp up when he’s missed lots of preparation and playing time.

Yeah, I hear ya. Historically I have not rated many of these guys as highly as others have either. I don't think any of them are really a "proper" WR1 at the moment. I was just saying that...there are some teams out there with pretty poor passcatching groups too. It's not like we'd be just as well off with practice squad WRs as we would be with the combination of Watson/Doubs/Musgrave. They're not gonna be world-beaters but they're all decent enough.

BUT in whatever case that's really secondary to the bigger picture point I was trying to get at... it's just that even with those guys as our first options, 20 points in 2 games is still what I'd call a drastic underperformance. That's the bigger issue to me

 

[Pkrjones]

On a separate note. IF and it’s a big IF Reed gets back healthy like Watson did. Plus we can stay ahead of .500 in the meantime. I could see where his presence pushes the pecking order at Receiver down some.

Let’s face it. This is not intended to be shade at Melton. Yet when he’s our 3rd or 4th best receiving option? we’re just in trouble. The guys been playing CB all year. It’s VERY difficult to wear multiple position hats. It’s asking too much of Bo and stretching him too thin to ask him anything past maybe fielding some kicks.

Melton should be game active as a CB & ST'er, ONLY. He's not even a marginally serviceable WR, & the fact that the coaching staff couldn't see that is embarrassing.
Also, Havrisik is still on the roster, so why on earth wasn't HE our kicker the last 2 games while McManus got-right?!? If you don't trust your kicker to try a 57+ yarder in an extremely close game (McManus) why keep you franchise-record, perfect kicker (Havrisik) on the bench?!!!!?

 

[adambr2]

Some of you may have missed it but posted elsewhere - some folks who were at the game observed McManus in warmup and his max range pre-game was 57 yards. When he tried to push for more distance it'd hook left. Pretty much exactly how it played out last night.

This, in addition it being reported that McManus said this week was the first time he felt "semi healthy" since getting injured a while back.

Much like the 4th-and-8 decision last week, this is another situation where I'd love to see if we have anyone looking at the analytics or if it's just vibes.

A. What is the percent chance that we score off of some sort of Hail Mary or last-ditch non-kicking play?

B. What is the percent chance that McManus - whose record FG is 61 yards, back in 2022 - who has been hurt for the last month - who couldn't hit from beyond 57 yards in warmup - who wasn't trusted to hit from 57 or 59 in game - who attempted from 64 yards and was short - was going to coax an extra 3 yards from his lifetime long and an extra 7 yards from his longest of the day out of his "semi-healthy" legs?

I mean I get that a Hail Mary in that situation is basically a 0.1% chance type of play but I doubt asking McManus to do that was much better odds lol

You could make the argument that our management of the kicker position alone has cost us up to THREE wins.

Do I think Havrisik hits from 64 last night? Probably not. Do I think he at least has a more legitimate chance? Yes. Do I think that they send him out there earlier in the game from 57 instead of punting? Absolutely.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My point would be that everyone on that list, save for Watson and Doubs, are not starter-grade players. Wicks and Heath are getting serious playing time because Golden and Reed are hurt.

Watson has only been targeted 4 times per game since he's come back. 0 drops, though he could have made a better play on the ball last night where he decided to be a defender. 23 yards per catch and a 66.67% catch rate is absurd. They might have to force the offense through him. Either he picks apart defenses or everyone else gets more favorable coverage as a result.

When you have a backup CB, that switched from playing WR, on the field, in critical downs, that is a problem. No offense to Melton,

Melton should be game active as a CB & ST'er, ONLY. He's not even a marginally serviceable WR, & the fact that the coaching staff couldn't see that is embarrassing.
Also, Havrisik is still on the roster, so why on earth wasn't HE our kicker the last 2 games while McManus got-right?!? If you don't trust your kicker to try a 57+ yarder in an extremely close game (McManus) why keep you franchise-record, perfect kicker (Havrisik) on the bench?!!!!?

Our minds were melded on this one. No shade on Melton, because its impressive that he can play 2 positions, on the opposite sides of the ball. However, as we saw last night, his WR play may have declined even further. So what is the point of putting him out there? I doubt he takes a ton of reps with the offense. He also hasn't developed into a worthwhile CB, so again, just a depth piece? Sure, it is cool to have a 2 way player, but not all that cool when said player doesn't at least excel at 1 position.

 

[Sanguine camper]

My comment was not meant to be playcalling commentary, but players. Everything gets better with better players.

We fix the run game First by having better run blocking linemen, tight ends, and fullbacks. All the good linemen are on rosters, we lost our best blocking TE to IR, and we don't have a fullback at all.

We punish their coverage choices by having more, better pass catchers. Same tight end problem as above, Golden and Reed are out, and Doubs had to leave the Eagles game due to injury.

There are things that MLF can do to try and work around these, but the first and second counters are missing. We're getting to the point where we have to do something a little more drastic to manufacture solutions. Not saying that we can't do this, but they have their own trade offs. In no particular order:

1. We can bring in an extra lineman to manufacture a run game. I'd like this, but it isn't an every down solution as it takes a man out of pass patterns. And we just lost Jenkins, possibly for the season. Do we have enough linemen to do this well?

2. We can do more rollouts/bootlegs, and again I would like that, but they cut the field in half. That whole "don't throw across the field" thing? You just prematurely increased what "across the field" means.

3. We could go looking for a player that presents as a typical fullback, but I don't know how much of the offense is installed to use one. You can fix that, but if we don't have a lot of practice time with those plays, you have to spend more time getting comfortable with them so something else might suffer. I also don't know if there are any fullbacks out there to be had.

This is not meant to be doom and gloom. These things or something like these things have to be explored. I expect we'll find something to give us a spark. Maybe the shuffling that is going to happen due to Jenkins' injury gives us a more effective line.

The Packers don't have a backup center. I don't think there's anybody else who's ever played a down at center at the NFL level. Losing Jenkins is a lot like losing Kraft. No replacements! Can't see how sticking just a guy ar center does anything but make them a much worse team.

Let's face it, the team is unraveling. Combination of the usual injury epidemic and bad coaching.

 

[gopkrs]

Anyone know when Belton returns and the tackle we traded a late pick for but seemed to do well? I wish we had a line coach that could put all the pieces together. We do have some pieces. At least I hope we do.

 

[mradtke66]

The Packers don't have a backup center. I don't think there's anybody else who's ever played a down at center at the NFL level. Losing Jenkins is a lot like losing Kraft. No replacements! Can't see how sticking just a guy ar center does anything but make them a much worse team.

Let's face it, the team is unraveling. Combination of the usual injury epidemic and bad coaching.

Honestly, I think Rhyan can do the job better. There is a bit of hope and prayer in there, but Jenkins has not looked good this year. I’d say he and Morgan have been our weakest links.

I’m not going to cheer an injury, but we come out of this better.

 

[gopkrs]

Honestly, I think Rhyan can do the job better. There is a bit of hope and prayer in there, but Jenkins has not looked good this year. I’d say he and Morgan have been our weakest links.

I’m not going to cheer an injury, but we come out of this better.

What to do about Morgan?

 

[mradtke66]

What to do about Morgan?

I’d like to make him the swing tackle, but with Rhyan the presumed starter and center, we lost the obvious play.

And now we’re coming into a short week with a new center. I’d rather not swap two players at the same time.

 

[gopkrs]

I’d like to make him the swing tackle, but with Rhyan the presumed starter and center, we lost the obvious play.

And now we’re coming into a short week with a new center. I’d rather not swap two players at the same time.

I guess you nean you would like to sit Morgan. I honestly don't know if he will be a decent tackle either. There are great pass rushers on both sides these days. Isn't there someone else to play guard? Belton maybe? When he is ready.

 

[mradtke66]

I guess you nean you would like to sit Morgan. I honestly don't know if he will be a decent tackle either. There are great pass rushers on both sides these days. Isn't there someone else to play guard? Belton maybe? When he is ready.

Nuance: I like Morgan in pass protection, I don’t like him run blocking. By moving him to tackle, the run blocking is different and he wouldn’t be dealing with 300+ DTs down after down.

My preference would have been Rhyan. He also makes mistakes, but I think he has the snot bubble mentality to thrive inside.

In the short, keep him where he is. We’re breaking in a new center. That is enough change. Medium term, maybe Belton would be better. It’s hard to say.

 

[Pkrjones]

The Packers don't have a backup center. I don't think there's anybody else who's ever played a down at center at the NFL level. Losing Jenkins is a lot like losing Kraft. No replacements! Can't see how sticking just a guy ar center does anything but make them a much worse team.

Let's face it, the team is unraveling. Combination of the usual injury epidemic and bad coaching.

Poor coaching decisions, as both Monk & D. Jennings were healthy inactives last night. Any chance of a few head-ectomies from arses with our coaching staff? Plenty of talent on this roster, but MLF/Stenavich are NOT putting this offense in a position to succeed.

 

[gopkrs]

Poor coaching decisions, as both Monk & D. Jennings were healthy inactives last night. Any chance of a few head-ectomies from arses with our coaching staff? Plenty of talent on this roster, but MLF/Stenavich are NOT putting this offense in a position to succeed.

So can Monk or Jennings be an answer at guard or center? Is Rhyan obviously better than these two? I'm still wondering about Belton though. I feel like they think they have to play Morgan because he's a 1st rounder. Which I absolutely hate that type of thinking.

 

[OldSchool101]

The only part we have lacked in recent years is a wide receiver with wing span. Watson comes the closest.

Yeah. This was really our first game less Kraft. That guy is such an amazing athlete. It’s like losing Travis Kelce. Then it didn’t help we lost our starting Center so it got pretty slow moving. That Eagles front 7 is pretty high end and you could see they immediately exploited Rhyan.

Even so I think losing Reed and Kraft still present the biggest challenge. We just fell hard from our graces to 15th in points scored. Now losing Kraft didn’t create all that, but he’s a big piece of the puzzle lost.

There’s an outside and not unrealistic chance that we get Golden back soon. He pushes Melton off the WR list. We’ll need a couple guys to elevate their games.

 

[Pkrjones]

So can Monk or Jennings be an answer at guard or center? Is Rhyan obviously better than these two?

If they're not better than Rhyan then those are more coaching mistakes. Extend Rhyan, teach him to play better, cut those 2 and better use their roster spots.

 

[mradtke66]

That Eagles front 7 is pretty high end and you could see they immediately exploited Rhyan.

I disagree with this. I think Rhyan looked better than Jenkins. Not saying he played perfect, because he did not, but at least he got his head up before shotgun snaps—something the Jenkins was horrible at.

 

[milani]

My comment was not meant to be playcalling commentary, but players. Everything gets better with better players.

We fix the run game First by having better run blocking linemen, tight ends, and fullbacks. All the good linemen are on rosters, we lost our best blocking TE to IR, and we don't have a fullback at all.

We punish their coverage choices by having more, better pass catchers. Same tight end problem as above, Golden and Reed are out, and Doubs had to leave the Eagles game due to injury.

There are things that MLF can do to try and work around these, but the first and second counters are missing. We're getting to the point where we have to do something a little more drastic to manufacture solutions. Not saying that we can't do this, but they have their own trade offs. In no particular order:

1. We can bring in an extra lineman to manufacture a run game. I'd like this, but it isn't an every down solution as it takes a man out of pass patterns. And we just lost Jenkins, possibly for the season. Do we have enough linemen to do this well?

2. We can do more rollouts/bootlegs, and again I would like that, but they cut the field in half. That whole "don't throw across the field" thing? You just prematurely increased what "across the field" means.

3. We could go looking for a player that presents as a typical fullback, but I don't know how much of the offense is installed to use one. You can fix that, but if we don't have a lot of practice time with those plays, you have to spend more time getting comfortable with them so something else might suffer. I also don't know if there are any fullbacks out there to be had.

This is not meant to be doom and gloom. These things or something like these things have to be explored. I expect we'll find something to give us a spark. Maybe the shuffling that is going to happen due to Jenkins' injury gives us a more effective line.

FB has truly been a position abandoned by MLF. We had one for part of a year or two but he was not much of a prototype. Before MLF FB was a very critical component of Packer offenses.

 

[mradtke66]

FB has truly been a position abandoned by MLF. We had one for part of a year or two but he was not much of a prototype. Before MLF FB was a very critical component of Packer offenses.

This is not just the Packers. The league as a whole has left it behind. Just checked on sporttrac. There are only 13 fullbacks on an active roster. (I literally had to count them).

Even Kuhn was a part time player, based on snap count. Most teams just find a short tight end, call him an H Back and use him at FB for the 10 or so snaps per game you need one.

If you’re feeling nostalgic, Taylor would be a running back in the modern game, not a fullback. Hourning would either be a 3rd down back or WR gadget player.

 

[Snoops]

More and more I get the impression that LaFleur significantly underestimates how good Love is capable of being, or that he greatly overestimates his own self-perceived genius as an offensive wizard. Or some combination of both.

Love really isn’t that good since he has been in the league he constantly throws off his back foot. Doesn’t step up in the pocket good. And he throws balloon balls that Watson occasionally catches and tucker Kraft snags a few. He is not accurate. He is average. Lafleur holds his breath whenever he throws off his back foot and just throws it up. That’s why he calls the **** he calls because he doesn’t trust him… always why he doing ***** snd dunks it’s really simple to see he doesn’t let him loose because he doesn’t wanna lose games and he wants to run the ball constantly then open love on some easy play action. He wants to be like his buddy shanahan so bad. Who does it well with a sheety qb… so yes I blame lafleur for crappy play calling . But he wants to make it easy on love and be a dominant run team because his qb is average at best.

 

[milani]

This is not just the Packers. The league as a whole has left it behind. Just checked on sporttrac. There are only 13 fullbacks on an active roster. (I literally had to count them).

Even Kuhn was a part time player, based on snap count. Most teams just find a short tight end, call him an H Back and use him at FB for the 10 or so snaps per game you need one.

If you’re feeling nostalgic, Taylor would be a running back in the modern game, not a fullback. Hourning would either be a 3rd down back or WR gadget player.

The advantage of a Kuhn, or the Moose, or a Matt Suey was that they had versatility. The D did not necessarily anticipate a run to the feature back. It could be to the FB. It could be play action. The FB could block or roll to the flat for a pass or pull like a guard for the QB. The 49ers have continued to use one for decades under several coaches.

 

[tynimiller]

Love really isn’t that good since he has been in the league he constantly throws off his back foot. Doesn’t step up in the pocket good. And he throws balloon balls that Watson occasionally catches and tucker Kraft snags a few. He is not accurate. He is average. Lafleur holds his breath whenever he throws off his back foot and just throws it up. That’s why he calls the **** he calls because he doesn’t trust him… always why he doing ***** snd dunks it’s really simple to see he doesn’t let him loose because he doesn’t wanna lose games and he wants to run the ball constantly then open love on some easy play action. He wants to be like his buddy shanahan so bad. Who does it well with a sheety qb… so yes I blame lafleur for crappy play calling . But he wants to make it easy on love and be a dominant run team because his qb is average at best.

There is not a snowball chance in you know where that a guy as bad as you describe could even come close to the efficiency and ball protection he does...it's fair to not believe he is one of the best or top 10 or what not...but let's not act like he's a thinner version of Jamarcus Russel.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

Coaching purgatory.

Never going to be bad enough to get fired but I seriously doubt we'll ever get to where we want to go with him in charge.

I'm beginning to have my doubts as well.