A Brief Assessment of "First Third" 25/26 Season

[Magooch]

Just wanted to take a quick look at some of the numbers as we now sit approximately 1/3rd of the way through the season.

I don't know how you all are feeling right now... the general sentiment I am getting from many users here and fans I see elsewhere is perhaps what I would describe as cautiously optimistic? I think many are a bit disappointed that performances in Weeks 3-7 largely haven't matched the performances we saw in Weeks 1-2, but still most will admit this is a pretty solid football team and there's not really many teams that are currently looking to be head-and-shoulders above the rest at the moment.

Now personally one thing I have felt in the last few weeks is that it seems to my eye like our offense has looked kind of disjointed and feels like it is underperforming or perhaps leaving a lot on the table. Do the numbers agree with the eye-test there? I wanted to take a quick glance.

First let's look at the positives on offense.
- We are currently 4th in total offensive EPA per play, 2nd in dropback EPA/play and 6th in rushing EPA/play
- We are 4th in scoring percentage, and 30th in turnover percentage (drives ending in a score vs drives ending in a turnover)
- We are 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage, 7th in 4th down conversion percentage, and 5th in red zone scoring percentage
- We are 6th in points per drive, and 4th in net yards per passing attempt
- Overall, we are 7th in points scored per game, and 13th in total points scored

But, on the less-positive side...
- We are 21st in total offensive yards, 21st in passing yards, and 20th in rushing yards
- We are dead last in number of total offensive drives, 28th in total offensive plays ran, and 19th in first downs gained

And somewhat in the middle:
- we are pretty much right in the middle of the pack with regards to penalties against our offense
- our average starting position and length of drive is also pretty much right in the middle

Now how about Special Teams, on the positive side:
- We are a top-10 unit in terms of kick return yards. I would note however here that given the new kickoff rules there is really very little discrepancy from top to bottom in this regard.

But on the negative side...
- We are dead-last in punt return yards, and in turn this has contributed to dragging us down to 30th in "all purpose yards" (All offensive production + KR + PR + INT/fumble return yards... more on that last bit momentarily)

The defense is also certainly doing some things right, too:
- 3rd-least amount of yards allowed, along with 3rd-least yards allowed per play, and overall 5th-least points allowed
- 7th in total offensive plays faced, 7th-best in first downs given up, and 9th in defensive penalty yards.
- Rush defense has been a pleasant surprise IMO - we are #1 in total rushing yards allowed, and 4th in rush yards allowed per attempt. We are also giving up the least amount of first downs by rushes, 6th least rushing TDs, and overall 11th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Pass defense has had some strong points, as well - 2nd lowest net yards per pass attempt allowed, and overall 8th-lowest total passing yards allowed. We are giving up the 8th-least YAC, 11th least air yards allowed on completions, and have the 4th-lowest defensive Depth of target given up
- We are 5th-least on blitz frequency (%) and 8th-lowest total number of blitzes, but still are generating in the top-10 for pressures, QB knockdowns, and QB hits on those blitzes.

But, there is also certainly some room for improvement on the defense...
- Our opposing passer rating allowed is not great - right in the middle at 16th.
- Our dropback EPA allowed is 15th - again, pretty average.
- We are not really generating many big plays on defense. For instance, we are 23rd in passes defensed, 28th in turnover percentage (drives ending in turnover), 29th in total takeaways, 19th in tackles for loss, and 26th in opponent ANY/A. We are inside the top 10 (9th) on total sacks, but 18th on sack percentage.
- Overall, this has contributed to a unit that ranks 16th in total defensive EPA


So, a few possible takeaways:
- Overall, our offense is ELITE when it comes to efficiency - among the best of the best. It is largely limited by low volume/opportunity. There are a few possible factors to consider - perhaps the foremost that comes to mind for me is our very low turnover numbers. Our defense just isn't generating extra opportunities for our offense to work with. On top of that, our starting field position has been pretty average and our defense is allowing "average" opponent drives (not super long, but not forcing change of possession quickly either). Overall, this is still measurably a top-5 offensive unit which is arguably just being limited by touches.

- We have an elite run defense, both in terms of total raw aggregate numbers and on a per-play basis

- Our pass defense isn't allowing many big splash plays...but they're also not creating big splash plays for themselves, either. Overall we play pretty tight/disciplined football, and have mostly kept folks in front of us - limited big plays and YAC - but I think you could also make a case that right now our CB situation is requiring us to play a bit more conservative than we might prefer.

- Overall, the defense is doing a great job at generating pressure, especially when you consider blitz usage/percentage. We are doing well with generating pressures/hits/knockdowns/hurries with a relatively low number/percentage of blitzes.

- BUT, at the same time... you have to hope those underlying numbers lead to improved production soon. We've been so-so in total sacks and TFLs, but pressures/hurries/hits/knockdowns are all there. You have to think at some point that consistent pressure is going to start to bear more fruit.

At the end of the day, I guess my feeling is that...there's a strong foundation in place. Ultimately, we have 4 wins, one loss, and one tie (Which, to me kind of felt like a loss, but...to each their own). Overall, we are playing good football, and by every objective measure are one of the best teams in the league right now.
At the same time, it also feels like we have a lot of untapped potential. On both sides of the ball, I think it is fair to say we have been somewhat "methodical" and limited in big splash plays. You could argue that we are a few plays away from being 6-0, but you could also argue that we are a couple of plays away from 3-3, for example. But if/when some of those underlying numbers start turning into more real-world production - sacks, takeaways, winning the field position battles...there is a lot of promise there.

That was a little more wordy/long-winded than I intended (what else is new?). What are your thoughts on the way things are shaping up thus far?

 

[El Guapo]

Great assessment. I think that it confirms how we all feel - they are playing well enough to win but in general have the talent to be better.

I hope that the offense ticks up with the eventual returns of Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.

Ultimately, we have 4 wins, one loss, and one tie (Which, to me kind of felt like a loss, but...to each their own).

With the Packers owning the best record in the NFC, that tie is operating more like a win these days. You're right of course, that it didn't feel right at the time.

 

[shockerx]

where do we stand in total pentilized yards, and total time of possesion? I think we our getting less oppertunities on offense due those two factors, plus the crappy turnover numbers.

 

[mradtke66]

But, on the less-positive side...
- We are 21st in total offensive yards, 21st in passing yards, and 20th in rushing yards
- We are dead last in number of total offensive drives, 28th in total offensive plays ran, and 19th in first downs gained

Number of offensive drives isn't really an offensive stat. That implies that we aren't getting the ball as much. Either we have longer, grinding drives, the defense isn't forcing turnovers/punts, or some combination of both.

The others are counting stats. Looking at efficiency, we are 32nd in drives, but better than 32nd in those categories. That would make them a positive, though how much would require math. Is there a quick resource for yards per drive?

 

[Half Empty]

where do we stand in total pentilized yards, and total time of possesion? I think we our getting less oppertunities on offense due those two factors, plus the crappy turnover numbers.

The Pack is 19th in penalty yards, but second to the Bears for teams that have only played 6 games. Stats

17th in TOP. Stats

 

[Pugger]

where do we stand in total pentilized yards, and total time of possesion? I think we our getting less oppertunities on offense due those two factors, plus the crappy turnover numbers.

I think stupid penalties on offense is what is keeping this team from fulfilling its potential. Motion penalties and holding are putting us behind the chains and makes everything so much more difficult.

 

[El Guapo]

Always good to remember that we are still the youngest team. It's not an excuse, but something to remember about why we seem to have more penalties.

 

[Half Empty]

Always good to remember that we are still the youngest team. It's not an excuse, but something to remember about why we seem to have more penalties.

Looks like you're implying they don't have more penalties? Given the stats, I don't follow.

 

[OldSchool101]

Always good to remember that we are still the youngest team. It's not an excuse, but something to remember about why we seem to have more penalties.

I believe it’s also part of the reason some teams click after 4 games but the Packers need 8 games. Youth has its advantages also but it’s rare that youth clicks in game 3.

The positive from this? If you can find a way to stay over .500 while you trip over yourselves. The idea being you hit stride as you’re 6-2-1 etc. then knockoff a contenders along the way and suddenly you’re 8-3-1 area and in full stride and more concerned with holding division opponents underneath you. Always easier to do battle top of the hill.

 

[Magooch]

Number of offensive drives isn't really an offensive stat. That implies that we aren't getting the ball as much. Either we have longer, grinding drives, the defense isn't forcing turnovers/punts, or some combination of both.

Yeah, you're right about that. I didn't mean it so much as a negative "against" the offense in the sense that they are causing it, but rather that it's a factor negatively impacting the offense all the same. The short of it is that our offense is being held back simply by volume.

When it comes to drive length we are currently 10th on average offensive drive time, 3m2s. Leaders are KC at 3m29s and at the bottom is Tennessee at 2m27s - league average is 2m53s.

The others are counting stats. Looking at efficiency, we are 32nd in drives, but better than 32nd in those categories. That would make them a positive, though how much would require math. Is there a quick resource for yards per drive?

So in terms of yards gained on a given offensive drive, we are currently 9th at 33.8 net yards per drive. The leaders are the Colts at 41.2, and last are the Titans at 21.4, to give you an idea for the spread. League average is 31.1 net yards per drive so slightly ahead of the average.

With regards of yards "to go" we are pretty much right in the middle - 18th with an average starting position of our own 30.1 yard line. There is not a ton of variation here though. Bears have had the best average starting field position at their own 34.4 yard line while Eagles are last, starting at their own 27.5 - here the league average is the 30.3 yard line.

In other words, what I would conclude from that is:
- Our starting field position is pretty average
- Our length of drive (distance) is pretty average
- Our length of drive (time/possession) is pretty average
When you consider all that against how excellent our "efficiency" numbers are, it seems to confirm to me that our offense is really just limited by the number of opportunities it gets. Our time of possession overall is pretty average, we don't force many turnovers, and - I'm just noticing - our defense is allowing the 4th-longest average length of drive against us (opponent drive time). While we are doing well to limit points and big plays against us, we aren't exactly hurrying other offenses off the field and aren't generating many extra opportunities.

 

[milani]

Always good to remember that we are still the youngest team. It's not an excuse, but something to remember about why we seem to have more penalties.

And in crunch time youth can go in all directions. So far this season in the games that were still up for grabs going into the 4th quarter we are 1-1-1. We choked in one, survived in another, and triumphed in the last one.

 

[OldSchool101]

The Packers Offense is 4th (54.4%) in Time of Possession % in the First Half. (10.3 pts per)

GB is 27th (46.03%) in Time of Possession % in the Second Half and 3rd (15.3 pts) in 2nd Half points.

The Packers Offense is:
#18 Points scored in 1st Qtr (4.0 pts)
#18 Points scored in 2nd Qtr (6.5 pts)
#21 Points scored in 3rd Qtr (4.0 pts)
#1 Points scored in 4th Qtr (11.3 pts)

The leagues 2 lowest scoring Quarters are 1st/3rd Qtrs. Likely before Defenses tire a little and before Timeouts and Sidelines extend drives

One area of improvement would be to start that 1st Half a little faster in points. GB ranks 20th (10.3 pts) across the 1st Half. This might explain some of my pulse fluctuations and heart Arrhythmia during games

The Top 10 Fast 1st Half Starters are:
Indianapolis 18.1 points in 1st Half
Dallas 18.1 pts
Chicago 15.0
New England 15.0
Detroit 14.7
Seattle 14.7
Philly 14.7
KC 13.3
Pitt 13.3
Arizona 12.4

Last season the GB Offense was ranked tied at 9th in 1st Half points scored (12.9 per). The 2024 1st Half Fast start leaders were:
Detroit 18.0
Baltimore 14.9
Washington 14.7
Tampa Bay 14.6
Buffalo 14.5
Philly 13.6
Atlanta 13.4
Cincinnati 13.4
LA (Chargers) 12.9
Green Bay 12.9

 

[Voyageur]

Just wanted to take a quick look at some of the numbers as we now sit approximately 1/3rd of the way through the season.

I don't know how you all are feeling right now... the general sentiment I am getting from many users here and fans I see elsewhere is perhaps what I would describe as cautiously optimistic? I think many are a bit disappointed that performances in Weeks 3-7 largely haven't matched the performances we saw in Weeks 1-2, but still most will admit this is a pretty solid football team and there's not really many teams that are currently looking to be head-and-shoulders above the rest at the moment.

Now personally one thing I have felt in the last few weeks is that it seems to my eye like our offense has looked kind of disjointed and feels like it is underperforming or perhaps leaving a lot on the table. Do the numbers agree with the eye-test there? I wanted to take a quick glance.

First let's look at the positives on offense.
- We are currently 4th in total offensive EPA per play, 2nd in dropback EPA/play and 6th in rushing EPA/play
- We are 4th in scoring percentage, and 30th in turnover percentage (drives ending in a score vs drives ending in a turnover)
- We are 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage, 7th in 4th down conversion percentage, and 5th in red zone scoring percentage
- We are 6th in points per drive, and 4th in net yards per passing attempt
- Overall, we are 7th in points scored per game, and 13th in total points scored

But, on the less-positive side...
- We are 21st in total offensive yards, 21st in passing yards, and 20th in rushing yards
- We are dead last in number of total offensive drives, 28th in total offensive plays ran, and 19th in first downs gained

And somewhat in the middle:
- we are pretty much right in the middle of the pack with regards to penalties against our offense
- our average starting position and length of drive is also pretty much right in the middle

Now how about Special Teams, on the positive side:
- We are a top-10 unit in terms of kick return yards. I would note however here that given the new kickoff rules there is really very little discrepancy from top to bottom in this regard.

But on the negative side...
- We are dead-last in punt return yards, and in turn this has contributed to dragging us down to 30th in "all purpose yards" (All offensive production + KR + PR + INT/fumble return yards... more on that last bit momentarily)

The defense is also certainly doing some things right, too:
- 3rd-least amount of yards allowed, along with 3rd-least yards allowed per play, and overall 5th-least points allowed
- 7th in total offensive plays faced, 7th-best in first downs given up, and 9th in defensive penalty yards.
- Rush defense has been a pleasant surprise IMO - we are #1 in total rushing yards allowed, and 4th in rush yards allowed per attempt. We are also giving up the least amount of first downs by rushes, 6th least rushing TDs, and overall 11th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Pass defense has had some strong points, as well - 2nd lowest net yards per pass attempt allowed, and overall 8th-lowest total passing yards allowed. We are giving up the 8th-least YAC, 11th least air yards allowed on completions, and have the 4th-lowest defensive Depth of target given up
- We are 5th-least on blitz frequency (%) and 8th-lowest total number of blitzes, but still are generating in the top-10 for pressures, QB knockdowns, and QB hits on those blitzes.

But, there is also certainly some room for improvement on the defense...
- Our opposing passer rating allowed is not great - right in the middle at 16th.
- Our dropback EPA allowed is 15th - again, pretty average.
- We are not really generating many big plays on defense. For instance, we are 23rd in passes defensed, 28th in turnover percentage (drives ending in turnover), 29th in total takeaways, 19th in tackles for loss, and 26th in opponent ANY/A. We are inside the top 10 (9th) on total sacks, but 18th on sack percentage.
- Overall, this has contributed to a unit that ranks 16th in total defensive EPA


So, a few possible takeaways:
- Overall, our offense is ELITE when it comes to efficiency - among the best of the best. It is largely limited by low volume/opportunity. There are a few possible factors to consider - perhaps the foremost that comes to mind for me is our very low turnover numbers. Our defense just isn't generating extra opportunities for our offense to work with. On top of that, our starting field position has been pretty average and our defense is allowing "average" opponent drives (not super long, but not forcing change of possession quickly either). Overall, this is still measurably a top-5 offensive unit which is arguably just being limited by touches.

- We have an elite run defense, both in terms of total raw aggregate numbers and on a per-play basis

- Our pass defense isn't allowing many big splash plays...but they're also not creating big splash plays for themselves, either. Overall we play pretty tight/disciplined football, and have mostly kept folks in front of us - limited big plays and YAC - but I think you could also make a case that right now our CB situation is requiring us to play a bit more conservative than we might prefer.

- Overall, the defense is doing a great job at generating pressure, especially when you consider blitz usage/percentage. We are doing well with generating pressures/hits/knockdowns/hurries with a relatively low number/percentage of blitzes.

- BUT, at the same time... you have to hope those underlying numbers lead to improved production soon. We've been so-so in total sacks and TFLs, but pressures/hurries/hits/knockdowns are all there. You have to think at some point that consistent pressure is going to start to bear more fruit.

At the end of the day, I guess my feeling is that...there's a strong foundation in place. Ultimately, we have 4 wins, one loss, and one tie (Which, to me kind of felt like a loss, but...to each their own). Overall, we are playing good football, and by every objective measure are one of the best teams in the league right now.
At the same time, it also feels like we have a lot of untapped potential. On both sides of the ball, I think it is fair to say we have been somewhat "methodical" and limited in big splash plays. You could argue that we are a few plays away from being 6-0, but you could also argue that we are a couple of plays away from 3-3, for example. But if/when some of those underlying numbers start turning into more real-world production - sacks, takeaways, winning the field position battles...there is a lot of promise there.

That was a little more wordy/long-winded than I intended (what else is new?). What are your thoughts on the way things are shaping up thus far?

Thanks for the work-up. A lot of good things and areas in need of major improvement. If they can rectify the problems, this could be a real contender for the big game.

I find it amazing that we stand at 4-1-1 with the problems we have. It's a credit to their resilience on the field. I'm also going to add something that I think has had a major impact. Lukas Havrisik and the attitude he brings to the team. I'm going to hate seeing him leave Green Bay because he's shown he's a really devoted player and loves the team, city, and people of the area.

 

[OldSchool101]

I find it amazing that we stand at 4-1-1 with the problems we have. It's a credit to their resilience on the field. I'm also going to add something that I think has had a major impact. Lukas Havrisik and the attitude he brings to the team. I'm going to hate seeing him leave Green Bay because he's shown he's a really devoted player and loves the team, city, and people of the area.

Amen! He really gave us a Kick start

 

[badmamba12]

Just wanted to take a quick look at some of the numbers as we now sit approximately 1/3rd of the way through the season.

I don't know how you all are feeling right now... the general sentiment I am getting from many users here and fans I see elsewhere is perhaps what I would describe as cautiously optimistic? I think many are a bit disappointed that performances in Weeks 3-7 largely haven't matched the performances we saw in Weeks 1-2, but still most will admit this is a pretty solid football team and there's not really many teams that are currently looking to be head-and-shoulders above the rest at the moment.

Now personally one thing I have felt in the last few weeks is that it seems to my eye like our offense has looked kind of disjointed and feels like it is underperforming or perhaps leaving a lot on the table. Do the numbers agree with the eye-test there? I wanted to take a quick glance.

First let's look at the positives on offense.
- We are currently 4th in total offensive EPA per play, 2nd in dropback EPA/play and 6th in rushing EPA/play
- We are 4th in scoring percentage, and 30th in turnover percentage (drives ending in a score vs drives ending in a turnover)
- We are 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage, 7th in 4th down conversion percentage, and 5th in red zone scoring percentage
- We are 6th in points per drive, and 4th in net yards per passing attempt
- Overall, we are 7th in points scored per game, and 13th in total points scored

But, on the less-positive side...
- We are 21st in total offensive yards, 21st in passing yards, and 20th in rushing yards
- We are dead last in number of total offensive drives, 28th in total offensive plays ran, and 19th in first downs gained

And somewhat in the middle:
- we are pretty much right in the middle of the pack with regards to penalties against our offense
- our average starting position and length of drive is also pretty much right in the middle

Now how about Special Teams, on the positive side:
- We are a top-10 unit in terms of kick return yards. I would note however here that given the new kickoff rules there is really very little discrepancy from top to bottom in this regard.

But on the negative side...
- We are dead-last in punt return yards, and in turn this has contributed to dragging us down to 30th in "all purpose yards" (All offensive production + KR + PR + INT/fumble return yards... more on that last bit momentarily)

The defense is also certainly doing some things right, too:
- 3rd-least amount of yards allowed, along with 3rd-least yards allowed per play, and overall 5th-least points allowed
- 7th in total offensive plays faced, 7th-best in first downs given up, and 9th in defensive penalty yards.
- Rush defense has been a pleasant surprise IMO - we are #1 in total rushing yards allowed, and 4th in rush yards allowed per attempt. We are also giving up the least amount of first downs by rushes, 6th least rushing TDs, and overall 11th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Pass defense has had some strong points, as well - 2nd lowest net yards per pass attempt allowed, and overall 8th-lowest total passing yards allowed. We are giving up the 8th-least YAC, 11th least air yards allowed on completions, and have the 4th-lowest defensive Depth of target given up
- We are 5th-least on blitz frequency (%) and 8th-lowest total number of blitzes, but still are generating in the top-10 for pressures, QB knockdowns, and QB hits on those blitzes.

But, there is also certainly some room for improvement on the defense...
- Our opposing passer rating allowed is not great - right in the middle at 16th.
- Our dropback EPA allowed is 15th - again, pretty average.
- We are not really generating many big plays on defense. For instance, we are 23rd in passes defensed, 28th in turnover percentage (drives ending in turnover), 29th in total takeaways, 19th in tackles for loss, and 26th in opponent ANY/A. We are inside the top 10 (9th) on total sacks, but 18th on sack percentage.
- Overall, this has contributed to a unit that ranks 16th in total defensive EPA


So, a few possible takeaways:
- Overall, our offense is ELITE when it comes to efficiency - among the best of the best. It is largely limited by low volume/opportunity. There are a few possible factors to consider - perhaps the foremost that comes to mind for me is our very low turnover numbers. Our defense just isn't generating extra opportunities for our offense to work with. On top of that, our starting field position has been pretty average and our defense is allowing "average" opponent drives (not super long, but not forcing change of possession quickly either). Overall, this is still measurably a top-5 offensive unit which is arguably just being limited by touches.

- We have an elite run defense, both in terms of total raw aggregate numbers and on a per-play basis

- Our pass defense isn't allowing many big splash plays...but they're also not creating big splash plays for themselves, either. Overall we play pretty tight/disciplined football, and have mostly kept folks in front of us - limited big plays and YAC - but I think you could also make a case that right now our CB situation is requiring us to play a bit more conservative than we might prefer.

- Overall, the defense is doing a great job at generating pressure, especially when you consider blitz usage/percentage. We are doing well with generating pressures/hits/knockdowns/hurries with a relatively low number/percentage of blitzes.

- BUT, at the same time... you have to hope those underlying numbers lead to improved production soon. We've been so-so in total sacks and TFLs, but pressures/hurries/hits/knockdowns are all there. You have to think at some point that consistent pressure is going to start to bear more fruit.

At the end of the day, I guess my feeling is that...there's a strong foundation in place. Ultimately, we have 4 wins, one loss, and one tie (Which, to me kind of felt like a loss, but...to each their own). Overall, we are playing good football, and by every objective measure are one of the best teams in the league right now.
At the same time, it also feels like we have a lot of untapped potential. On both sides of the ball, I think it is fair to say we have been somewhat "methodical" and limited in big splash plays. You could argue that we are a few plays away from being 6-0, but you could also argue that we are a couple of plays away from 3-3, for example. But if/when some of those underlying numbers start turning into more real-world production - sacks, takeaways, winning the field position battles...there is a lot of promise there.

That was a little more wordy/long-winded than I intended (what else is new?). What are your thoughts on the way things are shaping up thus far?

Q is Hobbs playing this week?

 

[Poppa San]

And in crunch time youth can go in all directions. So far this season in the games that were still up for grabs going into the 4th quarter we are 1-1-1. We choked in one, survived in another, and triumphed in the last one.

I like the way this is trending!

 

[OldSchool101]

I like the way this is trending!

Yes we’re trending 1-1-2

Or

2-2-2!