The Incoming Offseason...Will Be An Emotional Roller Coaster...

milani

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No doubt, when the Packers get thrashed, the resultng injury load not only wrecks the current season, it wrecks the next season. The losses against Carolina and Denver were franchise altering *** kickings

They've wiped out two seasons. With that, you could make an argument that the MLF and Gute can't build and coach teams that can compete for a championship. Too fragile and too many holes in the roster.

Some might say that's too negative. The injury epidemic isn't over, however. After Kraft went down, I predicted more key players were going down with season ending injuries. There are three more games this season for more injuries to devastate the franchise.

If the Packers want to believe that all injuries are random then they won't be a serious contender.
The 49ers are one team over the last decade who were bitten by star injuries to the max and it cost them several seasons. But they seem to keep competing and finding ways to win. 2025 is no different for them and they are in the hunt.
 

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Sorry, ligament injuries or guts getting rolled up on ARE totally random… there’s nothing the franchise can do to prevent them. Tell me how you suggest preventing Parson’s or Krafts ACLs …
Some injuries may be random, but certainly not all. Parsons had a non-contact injury. Is that completely random or is there something in the training regimin that predisposes players to non-contact injury?

If I were Gute, I'd hire some experts to compare the Packers injury mess with teams that stay healthier than average over let's say 4-6 year time scales. Long enough to build a successful roster.

If Gute just whistles in the dark and pretends that all Injuries are unavoidable, then he needs to be replaced by somebody that will turn over every stone to construct a strategy to minimize injuries.
 

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The 49ers are one team over the last decade who were bitten by star injuries to the max and it cost them several seasons. But they seem to keep competing and finding ways to win. 2025 is no different for them and they are in the hunt.
The Niners and the Lions come to mind. They haven't hoisted many Super Bowl trophies since they've been bitten by the injury bug. Their rosters are very good and can withstand some attrition but ultimately no team can hoist the trophy once you lose too much talent.

It also depends on who gets hurt. Sometimes, there's a promising younger player ready to take over. That's rare, but it certainly happens. Look no further than Favre for that example.

That said, I give the Packers and Niners very little chance of winning it all. In fact, I think the Packers may now not make the playoffs. The defense without Parsons and Wyatt is a sieve. A 10-6-1 season or even a 9-7-1 season are now very good possibilities. That would open the windows for the Lions to jump the Packers for the 7th seed.
 

milani

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Some injuries may be random, but certainly not all. Parsons had a non-contact injury. Is that completely random or is there something in the training regimin that predisposes players to non-contact injury?

If I were Gute, I'd hire some experts to compare the Packers injury mess with teams that stay healthier than average over let's say 4-6 year time scales. Long enough to build a successful roster.

If Gute just whistles in the dark and pretends that all Injuries are unavoidable, then he needs to be replaced by somebody that will turn over every stone to construct a strategy to minimize injuries.
Yes, there are teams over the last 30 years who seemed to check the box when it comes to many seasons of large numbers of injuries. The 3 that come to mind are Detroit, Arizona, and SF. We can now add GB to the list.
 

milani

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The Niners and the Lions come to mind. They haven't hoisted many Super Bowl trophies since they've been bitten by the injury bug. Their rosters are very good and can withstand some attrition but ultimately no team can hoist the trophy once you lose too much talent.

It also depends on who gets hurt. Sometimes, there's a promising younger player ready to take over. That's rare, but it certainly happens. Look no further than Favre for that example.

That said, I give the Packers and Niners very little chance of winning it all. In fact, I think the Packers may now not make the playoffs. The defense without Parsons and Wyatt is a sieve. A 10-6-1 season or even a 9-7-1 season are now very good possibilities. That would open the windows for the Lions to jump the Packers for the 7th seed.
The reason I threw the Cardinals in there is that they were getting wiped out even in the Buddy Ryan days. The year that Arians had them in the driver's seat they had to go into the playoffs with a 3rd string QB. No chance.
 

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I have to think that if there were any one clear-cut training and/or medical regimen that a team could utilize to minimize non-contact injuries, every team in the league (actually, every team in EVERY sports league, lol) would be writing blank checks to get that sort of training/conditioning program installed for their team(s). Obviously injuries are very frustrating (and all the more so when it is to a key player) but I think there's far too much variance to pinpoint any one particular culprit.

In terms of days/games missed (and points-share) I suspect that given a sufficient sample size you would likely find that the healthiest and most-injured teams are likely not all that far apart from each other, honestly.

For instance, in terms of value-lost (contract value of injured players over length of injury), the Packers have been one of the "healthiest" teams in the league this year (24th in terms of value-lost). Going back a few years:

In 2020 we were 27th
In 2021 we were 23rd
In 2022 we were 29th
In 2023 we were 30th
And last year we were 32nd.

In other words, over the last 5-6 years we have been considerably "healthier" than league average. Basically, if you consider our salary cap allocation, we are having FAR less of that cap tied up in players who are injured and missing time than the rest of the league. Now admittedly 1.) this has not yet been updated for the Parsons injury; and 2.) It doesn't really account for players who are playing "above" their contract (i.e. Kraft counts for a miniscule hit in this sense but we would all agree he is more important than his contract would currently dictate), but it does suggest that in general we either 1.) have not had many key players on large contracts missing much time historically and/or 2.) have generally done at least an adequate job of spreading around our cap allocation so that one injury doesn't have an outsized impact.

Similarly, there are a few analytics outfits who have attempted to basically create a "WAR" (wins above replacement) metric for the expected points value of a given player. It's more or less another take on EPA. Take this example. In terms of "total points" lost, we are again one of the healthier teams in the league, coming in 12th in points-lost.

Finally, I haven't seen any updated data, but in the past injury data hasn't really shown a terribly strong correlation between player-days missed and overall team success. In terms of total player-opportunity, you have roughly ~750-800 instances in given season (~48 active players, 16-17 game season). Between 2010 and 2020, the "most-injured" teams had only ~2.5% more player-games lost than the “least-injured” teams. The Packers were pretty much right on average. And in terms of overall success the single greatest factor was by far QB play. Teams with elite QB play were able to have success despite suffering more injuries; teams without elite QB play had less success even with healthier rosters around them.
 

milani

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I have to think that if there were any one clear-cut training and/or medical regimen that a team could utilize to minimize non-contact injuries, every team in the league (actually, every team in EVERY sports league, lol) would be writing blank checks to get that sort of training/conditioning program installed for their team(s). Obviously injuries are very frustrating (and all the more so when it is to a key player) but I think there's far too much variance to pinpoint any one particular culprit.

In terms of days/games missed (and points-share) I suspect that given a sufficient sample size you would likely find that the healthiest and most-injured teams are likely not all that far apart from each other, honestly.

For instance, in terms of value-lost (contract value of injured players over length of injury), the Packers have been one of the "healthiest" teams in the league this year (24th in terms of value-lost). Going back a few years:

In 2020 we were 27th
In 2021 we were 23rd
In 2022 we were 29th
In 2023 we were 30th
And last year we were 32nd.

In other words, over the last 5-6 years we have been considerably "healthier" than league average. Basically, if you consider our salary cap allocation, we are having FAR less of that cap tied up in players who are injured and missing time than the rest of the league. Now admittedly 1.) this has not yet been updated for the Parsons injury; and 2.) It doesn't really account for players who are playing "above" their contract (i.e. Kraft counts for a miniscule hit in this sense but we would all agree he is more important than his contract would currently dictate), but it does suggest that in general we either 1.) have not had many key players on large contracts missing much time historically and/or 2.) have generally done at least an adequate job of spreading around our cap allocation so that one injury doesn't have an outsized impact.

Similarly, there are a few analytics outfits who have attempted to basically create a "WAR" (wins above replacement) metric for the expected points value of a given player. It's more or less another take on EPA. Take this example. In terms of "total points" lost, we are again one of the healthier teams in the league, coming in 12th in points-lost.

Finally, I haven't seen any updated data, but in the past injury data hasn't really shown a terribly strong correlation between player-days missed and overall team success. In terms of total player-opportunity, you have roughly ~750-800 instances in given season (~48 active players, 16-17 game season). Between 2010 and 2020, the "most-injured" teams had only ~2.5% more player-games lost than the “least-injured” teams. The Packers were pretty much right on average. And in terms of overall success the single greatest factor was by far QB play. Teams with elite QB play were able to have success despite suffering more injuries; teams without elite QB play had less success even with healthier rosters around them.
Another way to observe is number of games missed by starters. The Packers consistently have the longest weekly injury list among teams, if not, right up there. Another point to consider is that we have had the youngest roster for 3 years running. Youth should hold up better than age. But we are not seeing it. The league does not have many Brett Favres or Jimmy Taylors any longer.
 

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It took Robert Tonyan 10 months to come back from a similar non-contact ACL tear. Watson also took 10 months. Other players have taken a little longer like Jenkins.

If Parsons is at the low end of the rehab spectrum, he might be back by week 7 or 8 next season. In general, the bigger guys take longer to get back. For Jenkins, he never really regained his pre injury dominance.

Parsons is bigger than Watson and Tonyan but much lighter than Jenkins. If he gets back by November, will he be the same player? If a players size is the most important variable, then he may suffer a drop off but one that's not as big as Jenkins.

Hard to know. Jordy Nelson certainly lost quickness and speed from his non-contact ACL tear. He was still a good possession receiver in 2016 but was never the deep
threat he once was.
 

milani

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It took Robert Tonyan 10 months to come back from a similar non-contact ACL tear. Watson also took 10 months. Other players have taken a little longer like Jenkins.

If Parsons is at the low end of the rehab spectrum, he might be back by week 7 or 8 next season. In general, the bigger guys take longer to get back. For Jenkins, he never really regained his pre injury dominance.

Parsons is bigger than Watson and Tonyan but much lighter than Jenkins. If he gets back by November, will he be the same player? If a players size is the most important variable, then he may suffer a drop off but one that's not as big as Jenkins.

Hard to know. Jordy Nelson certainly lost quickness and speed from his non-contact ACL tear. He was still a good possession receiver in 2016 but was never the deep
threat he once was.
Back in the first playoff game in 1996 MLB George Koonce tore his ACL against the 49ers. He, of course, missed the NFC Title game and the SB. He missed the first 12 games the next season. He was adequate but not quite as good laterally in his last few years.
Some injuries may be random, but certainly not all. Parsons had a non-contact injury. Is that completely random or is there something in the training regimin that predisposes players to non-contact injury?

If I were Gute, I'd hire some experts to compare the Packers injury mess with teams that stay healthier than average over let's say 4-6 year time scales. Long enough to build a successful roster.

If Gute just whistles in the dark and pretends that all Injuries are unavoidable, then he needs to be replaced by somebody that will turn over every stone to construct a strategy to minimize injuries.
 

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