MLF decision making process

[adambr2]

Wanted to point this out:

Yesterday, with 11 minutes left in the game, down 7 with Bryce Young on the other sideline and a top defense on our side, we faced 4th and 8 from the 13 with a choice to either cut it to a 4 point game or go for it. As you know, we went for it and failed spectacularly.

In the NFC Championship game against the Bucs, with 2:37 left in the game, down 8 with Tom Brady on the other sideline and a shaky defense on our side, we faced 4th and goal from the 8 with a choice to either cut it to a 5 point lead or go for it. As you know, we cut it to 5 and never got the ball back.

Can one of the MLF apologists please reconcile these decisions for me, and his in-game decision making process in general? Can you explain to me that he uses analytics and logic in his decisions, rather than just flying by the seat of his pants and making whatever emotional decision he feels like doing in the moment?

 

[gopkrs]

Sorry, can't be too logical about this. I thought we did the right thing back then because we would have needed the 2 point play. I don't remember how we got down there but I do remember not having much confidence in our offense right then. I think we made the wrong decision yesterday because it was a low scoring game and I didn't have a lot of confidence in the offense to score a TD

 

[adambr2]

Sorry, can't be too logical about this. I thought we did the right thing back then because we would have needed the 2 point play. I don't remember how we got down there but I do remember not having much confidence in our offense right then. I think we made the wrong decision yesterday because it was a low scoring game and I didn't have a lot of confidence in the offense to score a TD

I mean I wasn’t very confident either but it’s 2 plays. (The 4th and 8 and the 2 pt conversion).

If you weren’t confident about that happening I can’t imagine that you were very confident about not only getting the ball back from Tom Brady but also driving down and scoring a touchdown, all with 2 minutes left.

 

[milani]

Wanted to point this out:

Yesterday, with 11 minutes left in the game, down 7 with Bryce Young on the other sideline and a top defense on our side, we faced 4th and 8 from the 13 with a choice to either cut it to a 4 point game or go for it. As you know, we went for it and failed spectacularly.

In the NFC Championship game against the Bucs, with 2:37 left in the game, down 8 with Tom Brady on the other sideline and a shaky defense on our side, we faced 4th and goal from the 8 with a choice to either cut it to a 5 point lead or go for it. As you know, we cut it to 5 and never got the ball back.

Can one of the MLF apologists please reconcile these decisions for me, and his in-game decision making process in general? Can you explain to me that he uses analytics and logic in his decisions, rather than just flying by the seat of his pants and making whatever emotional decision he feels like doing in the moment?

Good question. I think the best coaches have more of a formula for those situations e.g. Belichick, Andy Reid. They weigh the strength of the offense vs. the strength of the defense, the down and distance, home field or not, and the ability of your D when the opponent gets the ball back. And they have a picture of that going into the game as well as a modified version due to the progress of the game.
In MLF's case he appears to be very spur of the moment. E.G. as you said there was still plenty of time left and, although our defense was vulnerable to the run game, the Panthers only had scored 13 points at the time. Not exactly an offensive powerhouse. 13-9 is better than 13-6.
Another part of this is that we went from 3rd and 4 to 4th and 8. That 4 yards changes the playbook and the percentage of success.
The other factor to surmise is that we had already sputtered in the red zone up until then. It was not like the last three games in which everything Love threw up was gold. This was a defensive battle. Not a track meet.
Lastly, MLF had to realize he did not have his best on the field. Kraft was out. Golden was out. Banks was out. Not sure if Jacobs was in. And Watson had just been checked out in the tent.
Now if MLF cannot factor that into making a decision he will never be a great coach.
My wife gave a humorous explanation. She said MLF had lost faith in McManus that he could even make the 30 yard FG.

 

[Pugger]

That inane decision to go for it in that situation was one of the dumbest things I've ever seen a football HC make. I could understand if there was only 2 or 3 minutes left but there was at least 9+ minutes left! You kick the FG there even if Tom Brady is waiting on the other sideline.

 

[milani]

I mean I wasn’t very confident either but it’s 2 plays. (The 4th and 8 and the 2 pt conversion).

If you weren’t confident about that happening I can’t imagine that you were very confident about not only getting the ball back from Tom Brady but also driving down and scoring a touchdown, all with 2 minutes left.

That is true. I also think that in the Buc game MLF believed that the chances of hitting the end zone on 4th and 10 against that defense were very slim. Like hitting a brick wall smothering our receivers and no Bahktiari to protect Rodgers. MLF also thought that since we picked Brady 3 times we may be able to do it again and get the ball back. We failed.
Yesterday was similar but still different. We have a better D than we had 4-5 years ago and we were facing a young unproven QB coming off an ankle injury rather than a HOFER in Brady.
The only way we make that 4th and 8 would be with an interference or illegal contact penalty.
Ironic, but against Dallas and Arizona we were faced with 4th down do or die plays. Love converted in both of those but being farther up field provided more room for our receivers. And on both of those plays Kraft and Golden were on the field. Not yesterday.

 

[milani]

I mean I wasn’t very confident either but it’s 2 plays. (The 4th and 8 and the 2 pt conversion).

If you weren’t confident about that happening I can’t imagine that you were very confident about not only getting the ball back from Tom Brady but also driving down and scoring a touchdown, all with 2 minutes left.

That is true. I also think that in the Buc game MLF believed that the chances of hitting the end zone on 4th and 10 against that defense were very slim. Like hitting a brick wall smothering our receivers and no Bahktiari to protect Rodgers. MLF also thought that since we picked Brady 3 times we may be able to do it again and get the ball back. We failed.
Yesterday was similar but still different. We have a better D than we had 4-5 years ago and we were facing a young unproven QB coming off an ankle injury rather than a HOFER in Brady.
The only way we make that 4th and 8 would be with an interference or illegal contact penalty.
Ironic, but against Dallas and Arizona we were faced with 4th down do or die plays. Love converted in both of those but being farther up field provided more room for our receivers. And on both of those plays Kraft and Golden were on the field. Not yesterday.

 

[shockerx]

What gets me is you have to score twice to win! You need a field goal at some point for the win. Take it. Was he playing for a tie with 11 minuites left.

 

[milani]

What gets me is you have to score twice to win! You need a field goal at some point for the win. Take it. Was he playing for a tie with 11 minuites left.

He was playing for stupidity.

 

[tynimiller]

Wanted to point this out:

Yesterday, with 11 minutes left in the game, down 7 with Bryce Young on the other sideline and a top defense on our side, we faced 4th and 8 from the 13 with a choice to either cut it to a 4 point game or go for it. As you know, we went for it and failed spectacularly.

In the NFC Championship game against the Bucs, with 2:37 left in the game, down 8 with Tom Brady on the other sideline and a shaky defense on our side, we faced 4th and goal from the 8 with a choice to either cut it to a 5 point lead or go for it. As you know, we cut it to 5 and never got the ball back.

Can one of the MLF apologists please reconcile these decisions for me, and his in-game decision making process in general? Can you explain to me that he uses analytics and logic in his decisions, rather than just flying by the seat of his pants and making whatever emotional decision he feels like doing in the moment?

Easy, but you won't like it.

Folks RAKED him over the coals for kicking it in the Buccs game.
Folks RAKE him over the coals for not kicking it yesterday.

Some of those folks understand the nuance of football while others simply put will ALWAYS be pissed regardless of what MLF decides ever so long as it doesn't work out.

Even the reasonable minded folks seem to agree yesterday was just crazy weird not taking the points at that point.

 

[weeds]

Easy, but you won't like it.

Folks RAKED him over the coals for kicking it in the Buccs game.
Folks RAKE him over the coals for not kicking it yesterday.

Some of those folks understand the nuance of football while others simply put will ALWAYS be pissed regardless of what MLF decides ever so long as it doesn't work out.

Even the reasonable minded folks seem to agree yesterday was just crazy weird not taking the points at that point.

I'm always a "take points" guy. Probably has something to do with me not growing on Maaden's video game. Still, I'm not over the offense, in two losses, against two bad offenses not being able to put up 20 flippin' points. Know what? The sun came up this morning.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm always a "take points" guy. Probably has something to do with me not growing on Maaden's video game. Still, I'm not over the offense, in two losses, against two bad offenses not being able to put up 20 flippin' points. Know what? The sun came up this morning.

I also am almost always conservative and take points too.

 

[Magooch]

The trouble is that there’s no consistency out of Matt. Even setting aside the differing situations it’s perfectly reasonable to criticize both decisions (kick or not) because neither one is following any semblance of a consistent plan or approach. Every game there’s moments like these that crop up and it pretty much feels like they’re decided by a coin flip or whatever the “vibes” feel like.

There are situations where it calls for playing it safe taking the points, situations where it calls for being aggressive and going for it, situations where the analytics tells you one way or the other… but you can’t just flip flop back and forth between aggressive and conservative with no rhyme or reason. Just have some consistency, it seems like he ends up outsmarting ourselves more than the opponent lol

 

[adambr2]

Easy, but you won't like it.

Folks RAKED him over the coals for kicking it in the Buccs game.
Folks RAKE him over the coals for not kicking it yesterday.

Some of those folks understand the nuance of football while others simply put will ALWAYS be pissed regardless of what MLF decides ever so long as it doesn't work out.

Even the reasonable minded folks seem to agree yesterday was just crazy weird not taking the points at that point.

The point I was trying to make is that there just doesn’t seem to be any reason or consistency in the thought process. It seems to be purely based off of emotion and gut feeling in the moment.

 

[tynimiller]

The point I was trying to make is that there just doesn’t seem to be any reason or consistency in the thought process. It seems to be purely based off of emotion and gut feeling in the moment.

And many have belittled MLF for never taking risks.....and now when he does he is getting belittled....it is exactly as I stated LOL

 

[Firethorn1001]

Generally he has been pretty aggressive this year going for it vs several years ago. So, going for it this year doesn't surprise me. I'm more miffed at the call before that that had a loss on the playing putting them at 3rd and 8.

Bucs game was 3 timeouts left. You tie the game with 2 1/2 minutes left you are now giving the ball to Brady and telling him he needs to score to win vs 3 time outs in your pocket knowing they will probably run a couple times to for you to spend time outs then it comes down to can I stop Brady once on third down. Almost worked until Kevin King entered the chat and got a holding call. At least that seems like the thought process. Might not agree with it, but at least I can have somewhat of a logical conclusion to it.

 

[Guacamole]

MLF needs to turn over play calling to the water girl....4th and 8, never forget

 

[adambr2]

And many have belittled MLF for never taking risks.....and now when he does he is getting belittled....it is exactly as I stated LOL

You’re not even trying to have an intelligent debate about it. You’re just laughing and throwing out generalizations that are just blanket statements and don’t really apply to what I’m talking about.

It’s not as simple as “MLF will get criticized no matter what he does”. Well yes, same goes for any coach in any sport at any level. That doesn’t mean that the process that he arrives by those decisions can’t be questioned.

I think most reasonable fans understand that just because something didn’t work, that doesn’t necessarily mean the decision was “bad” and just because something worked doesn’t mean the decision was “good”.

I am not necessarily looking to base my critique of the HC based on whether or not a decision worked. Obviously, results do matter, but the process is the most important thing. I’m a fairly analytical person and I’ll like to think that our HC has a deeper process involved in his in-game decision makes other than following his heart in the moment. I lean aggressive but it’s all situation dependent. I like to play the percentages no matter whether aggressive or conservative.

So while you may be right that some fans will crucify MLF no matter what he does, I am not speaking for them. I am asking about something I feel is pretty reasonable to question — is there more going into Matt’s in game decisions besides just “gut”?

 

[Magooch]

I think most reasonable fans understand that just because something didn’t work, that doesn’t necessarily mean the decision was “bad” and just because something worked doesn’t mean the decision was “good”.

Obviously, results do matter, but the process is the most important thing. I’m a fairly analytical person and I’ll like to think that our HC has a deeper process involved in his in-game decision makes other than following his heart in the moment. I lean aggressive but it’s all situation dependent. I like to play the percentages no matter whether aggressive or conservative.

So while you may be right that some fans will crucify MLF no matter what he does, I am not speaking for them. I am asking about something I feel is pretty reasonable to question — is there more going into Matt’s in game decisions besides just “gut”?

That's kind of what I'm getting at.

I haven't looked at (and don't even have access to) the advanced analytics on these decisions so this is purely hypothetical.

But if you have a scenario where analytics say "75% in favor of going for it" and you play it safe...and then another situation where the analytics say "75% in favor of FG attempt" and you go for it...Then yes, it is perfectly right, reasonable, and consistent to criticize both of these scenarios.

In the same way...
If you're playing the Bucs and the "analytics" or "odds" say to go for the TD rather than the FG, but you choose to be conservative and take the points...
And you're playing the Panthers and the analytics tell you to attempt the FG and take the "safer" points, but you choose to be aggressive and go for it...

BOTH of these are decisions that can (and should) be criticized, or at bare minimum subject to heavy scrutiny. It's not as simple as "He gets flack if he goes for it and he gets flack if he doesn't" or a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I can't speak for everyone either, but I have a hunch that if Matt went into a game and just had a consistently "safe/conservative" gameplan or a consistently "risky/aggressive" gameplan and stuck to it, that'd probably be more palatable for many. Right now it feels like he flip-flops between playing it conservative vs aggressive with very little rhyme or reason or consideration of game context(s)

Yesterday, for instance... I can't reconcile hearing folks saying that "our defense did enough to win that game" when apparently Matt didn't want to trust our defense enough to risk giving the Panthers the ball back with a lead and nearly 10 minutes on the clock.

 

[tynimiller]

You’re not even trying to have an intelligent debate about it. You’re just laughing and throwing out generalizations that are just blanket statements and don’t really apply to what I’m talking about.

It’s not as simple as “MLF will get criticized no matter what he does”. Well yes, same goes for any coach in any sport at any level. That doesn’t mean that the process that he arrives by those decisions can’t be questioned.

I think most reasonable fans understand that just because something didn’t work, that doesn’t necessarily mean the decision was “bad” and just because something worked doesn’t mean the decision was “good”.

I am not necessarily looking to base my critique of the HC based on whether or not a decision worked. Obviously, results do matter, but the process is the most important thing. I’m a fairly analytical person and I’ll like to think that our HC has a deeper process involved in his in-game decision makes other than following his heart in the moment. I lean aggressive but it’s all situation dependent. I like to play the percentages no matter whether aggressive or conservative.

So while you may be right that some fans will crucify MLF no matter what he does, I am not speaking for them. I am asking about something I feel is pretty reasonable to question — is there more going into Matt’s in game decisions besides just “gut”?

It really truly is that simple. I've sat deeply in the realms of this forum, numerous others and social media pages....MLF absolutely will be criticized regardless what he does if it fails, it will be treated as if he has the brain cells of a toddler and should be fired. One week he's too timid or conservative and should have kicked it, next week absolutely dumb for being aggressive.

Yes, if we push the people who use hindsight to attack - most have a tendency to lean either take the points or risk it for the biscuit. I'm VERY much the take points whenever possible. MLF almost always is conservative in nature, but Love is pushing him constantly - shoot the one week we were going to kick, Love dejected look at MLF literally made him 180...MLF is changing IMO, now does that mean he is changing for the better - eh that will be subjective.

 

[adambr2]

It really truly is that simple. I've sat deeply in the realms of this forum, numerous others and social media pages....MLF absolutely will be criticized regardless what he does if it fails, it will be treated as if he has the brain cells of a toddler and should be fired. One week he's too timid or conservative and should have kicked it, next week absolutely dumb for being aggressive.

Yes, if we push the people who use hindsight to attack - most have a tendency to lean either take the points or risk it for the biscuit. I'm VERY much the take points whenever possible. MLF almost always is conservative in nature, but Love is pushing him constantly - shoot the one week we were going to kick, Love dejected look at MLF literally made him 180...MLF is changing IMO, now does that mean he is changing for the better - eh that will be subjective.

Again, I’m not really asking him to be aggressive or conservative.

I’m just asking him to be analytical and use logic and reasoning to make decisions and not blind gut feeling.

You’re lumping everyone who questions MLF into the “criticizing him no matter what” group.

I’m not enough of a simpleton to believe that just because the result from a play was bad, the call was bad.

If anyone can show me logic from any play, including the 4th and 8 yesterday, suggesting that the win probability increased because of the decision, even if the result was bad, I’m happy to support that decision.

 

[tynimiller]

Again, I’m not really asking him to be aggressive or conservative.

I’m just asking him to be analytical and use logic and reasoning to make decisions and not blind gut feeling.

You’re lumping everyone who questions MLF into the “criticizing him no matter what” group.

I’m not enough of a simpleton to believe that just because the result from a play was bad, the call was bad.

If anyone can show me logic from any play, including the 4th and 8 yesterday, suggesting that the win probability increased because of the decision, even if the result was bad, I’m happy to support that decision.

No I even said push aside the idiots, as conservative as MLF has been over the years which is also where analytics often point towards, I really don't think he is a fly by gut feeling type guy. I've actually NEVER gotten that feeling from him, if anything I could see him deciding before the game about things like that and "sticking to it" lol

I've already said, the vast majority of folks even that have agreed with his decisions mostly are left scratching our heads on 4th and 8 yesterday.

Whose to say Love didn't argue to go again and MLF said okay, but now refuses to throw Love under the bus? That type of thing absolutely has happened before.

 

[adambr2]

No I even said push aside the idiots, as conservative as MLF has been over the years which is also where analytics often point towards, I really don't think he is a fly by gut feeling type guy. I've actually NEVER gotten that feeling from him, if anything I could see him deciding before the game about things like that and "sticking to it" lol

I've already said, the vast majority of folks even that have agreed with his decisions mostly are left scratching our heads on 4th and 8 yesterday.

Whose to say Love didn't argue to go again and MLF said okay, but now refuses to throw Love under the bus? That type of thing absolutely has happened before.

Well, it’s possible, and I could definitely see why he wouldn’t want to throw Jordan under the bus because he’d look awfully bad for whatever that was on 4th down.

Jordan Love should not be making our 4th down decisions, though. Input? Sure. Final say? No.

 

[milani]

The trouble is that there’s no consistency out of Matt. Even setting aside the differing situations it’s perfectly reasonable to criticize both decisions (kick or not) because neither one is following any semblance of a consistent plan or approach. Every game there’s moments like these that crop up and it pretty much feels like they’re decided by a coin flip or whatever the “vibes” feel like.

There are situations where it calls for playing it safe taking the points, situations where it calls for being aggressive and going for it, situations where the analytics tells you one way or the other… but you can’t just flip flop back and forth between aggressive and conservative with no rhyme or reason. Just have some consistency, it seems like he ends up outsmarting ourselves more than the opponent lol

As I have watched John Harbaugh over his career in Baltimore I see him as quite the opposite. He has it all measured and charted, game to game and season to season.

 

[OldSchool101]

Wanted to point this out:

Yesterday, with 11 minutes left in the game, down 7 with Bryce Young on the other sideline and a top defense on our side, we faced 4th and 8 from the 13 with a choice to either cut it to a 4 point game or go for it. As you know, we went for it and failed spectacularly.

In the NFC Championship game against the Bucs, with 2:37 left in the game, down 8 with Tom Brady on the other sideline and a shaky defense on our side, we faced 4th and goal from the 8 with a choice to either cut it to a 5 point lead or go for it. As you know, we cut it to 5 and never got the ball back.

Can one of the MLF apologists please reconcile these decisions for me, and his in-game decision making process in general? Can you explain to me that he uses analytics and logic in his decisions, rather than just flying by the seat of his pants and making whatever emotional decision he feels like doing in the moment?

I’d argue both scenarios were played bass ackwards. In my heart I remember in an interview Matt contemplating his NFC decision and regretting it. It’s almost like he thought this was his do over. However these were entirely different games. This one was very low scoring. Tampa was more average scoring. This one was played like it was our final drive. Matt is a brilliant Playcaller, but he’s below average at understanding risk regarding the gameclock. This is like the 5th time he’s done this, so there’s no more “I accidentally lost track of time” excuse.

Matt has had several sketchy examples where our D was playing good but he made a panic like decision. Granted he just converted a 4th n 4, but that was a no brainer based on field position and lost momentum. He got the points for that risk. Then he took his points and tripled down on risk. Just cash in your mini jackpot and walk away from the Poker table. Take the who wants to be a millionaire $128,000 there imo.
It’s a nice chunk of change and you can tell stories for years of how you spent it!

Truthfully I would NOT have went for it on a 4th n 5 at the Car10. Might’ve started itching in contemplation had it been 4th n Goal from the Car5??
At 4th and 8 at the Car13 it’s not even debatable unless it’s your last drive. It’s eerily similar to Tampa and nowhere similar to Tampa is why I brought that topic up yesterday.