Predictive 2023 For Draft Class

[tynimiller]

Alright many asked when I was gonna find time to share my thoughts and predictions on the 2023 class for their rookie seasons...especially since the first time I tried this I did way better than I ever thought possible (so lower expectations, no way I repeat that one you can check out HERE).

That said here we go:

#13 - Lukas Van Ness
Okay, so I'm torn on Lukas as there are multiple reasons it is very hard to gauge where and how he ends up getting snaps. With his size, there may be some snaps reduced inside he otherwise wouldn't see...there is the Gary injury and when he comes back and also when is he 100%....there is also just the fact a rookie edge can and does typically struggle. That said I'm going to assume Gary is back week 1 given his recent PUP removal. I'm also going to predict that at least at first Hollins and Enagbare at worst see similar snaps or more (Hollins especially) early on then Baby Hercules. All that said his talent and just massive upside leads me to think like DeVonte Wyatt, things worse case start clicking that final 1/3 of the season or so. I'll predict that he outdoes Rashan Gary's rookie year in sacks (he had 2) because Gary was behind a stacked and clear edge room (Smith, Smith, Fackrell)....I'll predict 4.5 Sacks / 25 Tackles and a couple starts even sprinkled in there. Sad thing is from a predictive standpoint LVN could see far less snaps if say Hollins just clicks like he has shown he may...or increase heavy with Gary ailing or even a Preston Smith issue (either play or health). I'll also say that QB hits or pressures will be impressive out of him his rookie campaign and show what might be next in 2024 for LVN and this front.

#42 - Luke Musgrave
I've got to remember this young man is a likely starting rookie, a TE, and will have a "first year" QB at the helm. Alone any of those three things are massive limiting factors, altogether you'd have to ignore logic to not be concerned. All that said though I do strongly feel Musgrave is going to put forth a rookie TE campaign which has been VERY rare in GB.....and I believe that if Musgrave is healthy in all but say 2 games at most, he will break Bubba Franks' rookie TE campaign (which is the best rookie TE campaign in my lifetime if memory serves in GB). Frank's saw 55 Targets / 34 receptions / 363 yards / 1 TD.....I believe Musgrave goes for 60 Targets / 45 Receptions / 500 yards / 4 TDs...I will also predict that his blocking will surprise folks and bet PFF grade of over 55 or so happens. Not great but a solid mark for a rookie and well above typical Tonyan type level.

#50 - Jayden Reed
Jayden is electric for sure, extremely shifty in getting open and with the ball in his hands he can eat up space in a hurry....BUT he is clearly #3 or #4 on the depth chart, is a rookie as well....BUT I foresee easily him producing and replacing Cobb on this team production wise OR close - I'll go slightly under at say 40 Targets / 33 Receptions / 330 yards / 2 TDs...I think him and Toure get similar targets, just a matter of who produces more or who is hot that may see slightly more.

#78 - Tucker Kraft
He isn't going to enter the year as the clear and above TE2, yes Deguara is our HBack/TE type but he for sure gets more snaps initially than Tucker IMO and I suspect unless preseason shows he is ready that Tyler Davis steals snaps too from Kraft. However, Kraft I strongly think will finish the year easily as the one getting the second most inline TE snaps and with that will come some target shares. I predict 24 Targets / 17 Receptions / 200 Yards / 2 TDs

#116 - Colby Wooden
Wooden to me might surprise some folks, but it will take time. In his rookie campaign he will be there for rotational breathers and perhaps to deliver some interior pressure. IF we hadn't lost Reed / Lowry both I'd say Wooden gets chances similar to either Slaton or Wyatt of last year...but with two losses and just rookies drafted to fill that room I think Wooden gets a touch earlier chances to see snaps perhaps. With that not saying he is better, but I think he produces more stats than Wyatt's rookie year. I'll go 2 sacks / 20 tackles...he makes a big play or two in a BIG game though that folks absolutely will circle as "THAT is why Gute liked hiim"...coming from SEC, he understands big moments.

#149 - Sean Clifford
Locks in the QB2 role, sees limited action but in it I'll say ends the year with something like 24 Atts / 15 Completions / 155 yards / 1 INT / 1 TD

#159 - Dontayvion Wicks
I expect he makes the roster and slowly begins to show signs of perhaps being our next Lazard type possession guy. Won't see the field a ton, but I feel more than say Toure did last year...and with Watson and Doubs both missing time rookie year who knows. I'll say Wicks puts up around 20 Targets / 12 receptions / 147 yards / 1 TD

#179 - Karl Brooks
With Slaton's play clicking and growing, Wyatt as well...and Wooden being the better rookie in camp I like to think Brooks and his hybrid body type is going to get a slow transition to the NFL but will slowly produce some solid snaps and leave us all wondering what he may be in 2024 (ala TJ Slaton rookie type campaign)...I'll predict .5 sacks but he will toss in a PD or a FF or FR type play and perhaps a TFL or two.

#207 - Anders Carlson
I'm torn here....but in the end I believe through growing pains and a willingness to let growth happen Bissacia is given this year to work with his guy. He barely hangs onto his job, but is still here when the season ends...he may get a week or two off to struggles or maybe a "injury claim/bug" but his leg strength is TOO BIG for us to ignore and hope a solid offseason and 2024 is where it all comes together. I'll say he delivers a year similar to Cade York's in CLE last year... hits on around 77% of his kicks with his worst percent coming from 40-49 range but hits some massive 50+ ones, chip shots and XPAs he hits around 95% of.

#232 - Carrington Valentine
This is the first possible PS, but as I said when we drafted him he IS a 53 roster man. I predict he makes it, serves as quite the reserve and ST type. Not going to predict injuries or such so won't predict stats as I don't think he sees many defensive snaps, but he makes the team, makes some ST plays and never relinquishes his 53 spot.

#235 - Lew Nichols
PS squad stash.

#242 - Anthony Johnson
PS with two gameday elevations...BUT if Owens, Ford, Leavitt or Moore struggle or fail he will quickly elevate.

#256 - Grant Dubose
PS stash, but eventually let go.

 

[tynimiller]

I will say the most interesting question about this rookie class that is flying under the radar is the usage of Wooden and Brooks and just how each if either or both click and produce.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

I think the opportunities will be there for Musgrave and I do see the potential for a good season. I don't know that. Much about him. How is his catching?

I can see Reed catching on really quickly and being an asset right away.

I'm hopeful that Anderson will not struggle as much as you predict. But I won't really get a feel for how he might do until the game this Friday.

Great write-up.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You forgot to include Tucker Kraft. Hoping the knee injury he sustained on Saturday isn't serious, initial reports say that it wasn't.

I think Kraft has a typical TE rookie season, as the #2 behind Musgrave. Now if Musgrave gets injured, Kraft will get a lot more action. I can't figure out if Gute drafted both Musgrave and Kraft to hedge his bet on finding 1 above average TE or his hope is to have these 2 guys playing quite a bit together. I'll choose the latter and say that by next year, we see both playing quite a few snaps at the same time.

 

[tynimiller]

You forgot to include Tucker Kraft.

I think Kraft has a typical TE rookie season, as the #2 behind Musgrave. Now if Musgrave gets injured, Kraft will get a lot more action. I can't figure out if Gute drafted both Musgrave and Kraft to hedge his bet on finding 1 above average TE or his hope is to have these 2 guys playing quite a bit together. I'll choose the latter and say that by next year, we see both playing quite a few snaps at the same time.

Oh crap, I have it written down and failed to include. Amending quick as I have it saved.

 

[tynimiller]

For reference in the TE room...we've had in that high 80s to near 100 targets for the TE room in past years. I suspect we eclipse 100...and my predictions for the room rookies are Musgrave (60) and Kraft (24)....that leaves in my opinion about 20-30 for Deguara/Davis combo. Which is quite reasonable given trends...I could see my Musgrave targets being touch high and elevating Josiah to hit 25 for sure actually....and think if I did my predictions again I'd drop Musgrave to at least 55.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

For reference in the TE room...we've had in that high 80s to near 100 targets for the TE room in past years. I suspect we eclipse 100...and my predictions for the room rookies are Musgrave (60) and Kraft (24)....that leaves in my opinion about 20-30 for Deguara/Davis combo. Which is quite reasonable given trends...I could see my Musgrave targets being touch high and elevating Josiah to hit 25 for sure actually....and think if I did my predictions again I'd drop Musgrave to at least 55.

Agree on the TE targets being higher this season than in the past. I believe Jordan is going to be relying on his TE's quite a bit more than #12 did.

 

[tynimiller]

Agree on the TE targets being higher this season than in the past. I believe Jordan is going to be relying on his TE's quite a bit more than #12 did.

If forced I'd place the over/under for targets around 110 which it was 2018 the last time TE room saw over 100 targets (Jimmy Graham and Lance Kendricks saw majority)

 

[Mondio]

I don't think it has anything to do with how much 12 wanted to rely on TE's but rather the quality of TE we've had on the field much of the time for the past few years.

These 2 guys are rookies, but on paper have more potential than anything we've trotted out there in 5 years at least it seems. They may not light the world on fire right away, but they certainly are going to deserve more looks than our recent rosters have.

 

[gopkrs]

I don't think it has anything to do with how much 12 wanted to rely on TE's but rather the quality of TE we've had on the field much of the time for the past few years.

These 2 guys are rookies, but on paper have more potential than anything we've trotted out there in 5 years at least it seems. They may not light the world on fire right away, but they certainly are going to deserve more looks than our recent rosters have.

It seemed to me that Rodgers stayed away from Deguara. I hope he has more catches this year. His drop rate is very good.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think the opportunities will be there for Musgrave and I do see the potential for a good season. I don't know that. Much about him. How is his catching?

I can see Reed catching on really quickly and being an asset right away.

I'm hopeful that Anderson will not struggle as much as you predict. But I won't really get a feel for how he might do until the game this Friday.

Great write-up.

My best guess (and it’s only a guess) is that our TE Rookies as a sum will see far more usage than any singular drafted TE in a Packers typical season. I say that because part of the response to an over-aggressive Defense is dumping off to a big target at athletic TE who can either outmuscle many Slot Defenders or Run by many LB’s.

While it’s 100% true that TE is a complex position that typically takes several years to grip, I also fully expect Matt will recognize the inexperience and reel their playbook in to fit the mold of a young TE group. Normally we ramp up TE usage more gradual and thus by default their production is minimized year 1. We don’t have that luxury and we’ll lean on Musgrave like a year 2-3 TE and we’ll use Kraft more as a blocker if as if he’s been here 6+ months.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My best guess (and it’s only a guess) is that our TE Rookies as a sum will see far more usage than any singular drafted TE in a typical season. I say that because part of the response to an over-aggressive Defense is dumping off to a big target at athletic TE who can either outmuscle many Slot Defenders or Run by many LB’s

Agreed and I also factored into it, that besides maybe Jimmy Graham, who wasn't all that great with the Packers, the Packers now seem to possibly have two legit receiving TE's on the roster, albeit Rookies.

 

[Mondio]

It seemed to me that Rodgers stayed away from Deguara. I hope he has more catches this year. His drop rate is very good.

I think he did too. I have a feeling he was in the dog house a lot for things we never get to see. Regardless he's not really the type of TE an NFL offense needs and this team needs 2 of them because we had none.

 

[tynimiller]

Some may be surprised by the college stats of our TEs...

College stats:

Tucker Kraft: 32 games - 99 receptions - 1,211 yards....37.8 yards per game and 12.23 yards per catch.
Luke Musgrave: 20 games - 47 receptions - 633 yards.....31.65 yards per game and 13.46 yards per catch.
Josiah Deguara: 35 games - 92 receptions - 1,117 yards....31.91 yards per game and 12.14 yards per catch.
Tyler Davis: 33 games - 64 receptions - 648 yards.....19.63 yards per game and 10.12 yards per catch.

 

[gopkrs]

Agreed and I also factored into it, that besides maybe Jimmy Graham, who wasn't all that great with the Packers, the Packers now seem to possibly have two legit receiving TE's on the roster, albeit Rookies.

I agree but there can be room on the team to use him. Especially with our TEs going into patterns or looking for the open space as opposed to just being a safety valve.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Some may be surprised by the college stats of our TEs...

College stats:

Tucker Kraft: 32 games - 99 receptions - 1,211 yards....37.8 yards per game and 12.23 yards per catch.
Luke Musgrave: 20 games - 47 receptions - 633 yards.....31.65 yards per game and 13.46 yards per catch.
Josiah Deguara: 35 games - 92 receptions - 1,117 yards....31.91 yards per game and 12.14 yards per catch.
Tyler Davis: 33 games - 64 receptions - 648 yards.....19.63 yards per game and 10.12 yards per catch.

Not all that surprising and a lot of it depends on many variables. How a college team uses a TE, opponents, their QB, type of offense run, when they became a starter, injuries, etc.

I would say that if the Packers can get 30-75 yards a game out of a TE, that could be a success. Throw in a few catches, 1st downs or TD's for your second TE and that's a bonus. After that, you obviously have to look at how good of a blocker each is, as well as 1st downs and TD's. I know I will take flack from some for saying this, but I do think Rodgers went long ball too often on 3rd/4th down, not relying on quick hitters to a TE. Now that might have been due to lack of trust or quality, but I hope Love can establish his TE's as guys who can pick-up those short yards for 1st downs or TD's.

 

[tynimiller]

Not all that surprising and a lot of it depends on many variables. How a college team uses a TE, opponents, their QB, type of offense run, when they became a starter, injuries, etc.

I would say that if the Packers can get 30-75 yards a game out of a TE, that could be a success. Throw in a few catches, 1st downs or TD's for your second TE and that's a bonus. After that, you obviously have to look at how good of a blocker each is, as well as 1st downs and TD's. I know I will take flack from some for saying this, but I do think Rodgers went long ball too often on 3rd/4th down, not relying on quick hitters to a TE. Now that might have been due to lack of trust or quality, but I hope Love can establish his TE's as guys who can pick-up those short yards for 1st downs or TD's.

Oh for sure don't disagree, I just think many forget how experienced of a catcher Deguara was in college and when needed to produce even in GB has produced.

 

[Voyageur]

As a matter of record, I see Deguara as being more of an H-back. That goes back to the old Bill Walsh days. Tom Rathman played the position perfectly. They may get the rare pass thrown to them, and in Walsh's case, an odd run, maybe once in a game, but their main purpose was to pick up guys who beat the rush because they knew there would someone who would breach containment. It's an additional blocker, to help give the QB time to allow more intricate patterns by the receivers, and to help them gain more depth for the long throws.

 

[tynimiller]

As a matter of record, I see Deguara as being more of an H-back. That goes back to the old Bill Walsh days. Tom Rathman played the position perfectly. They may get the rare pass thrown to them, and in Walsh's case, an odd run, maybe once in a game, but their main purpose was to pick up guys who beat the rush because they knew there would someone who would breach containment. It's an additional blocker, to help give the QB time to allow more intricate patterns by the receivers, and to help them gain more depth for the long throws.

Correct Josiah is absolutely an H-Back type TE. A role he's played his whole time here.

 

[gopkrs]

imho Deguara can still be more effective in the passing game than Rathman was if not as good a blocker.

 

[tynimiller]

imho Deguara can still be more effective in the passing game than Rathman was if not as good a blocker.

Deguara honestly I could foresee producing receiving yards better than Kyle Juszczyk who has never had a season with more than 325 yards...only three over 300.

 

[Voyageur]

imho Deguara can still be more effective in the passing game than Rathman was if not as good a blocker.

Any help Deguara can give in the passing game, as a receiver, is a bonus. The real value he serves is in blocking. Rathman was the ultimate blocking back. He kept both Montana and Young from taking a licking. He did actually get some carries, and passes thrown in his direction, but it's often ignored, because he was so darned good on the blocks.

He was one of those players that John Madden referred to as "the ultimate example of a football player." When you reached that level of praise, you know you've made it to the top.

 

[OldSchool101]

Agreed and I also factored into it, that besides maybe Jimmy Graham, who wasn't all that great with the Packers, the Packers now seem to possibly have two legit receiving TE's on the roster, albeit Rookies.

I think that’s exactly our secret hope. That being some semblance of young Jimmy Graham who just dominated the league very early on. Athletically they are similar, Graham might’ve been a little more physical and a little more attitude than Musgrave. Obviously Love isn’t Brees, but if we can get 75%+ of a Jimmy Graham type production we’re in for a treat.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think that’s exactly our secret hope. That being some semblance of young Jimmy Graham who just dominated the league very early on. Athletically they are similar, Graham might’ve been a little more physical and a little more attitude than Musgrave. Obviously Love isn’t Brees, but if we can get 75%+ of a Jimmy Graham type production we’re in for a treat.

I don't know about others, but I am tired of our defense getting shredded by opposing TE's. So for a change, I would love to see the Packers TE's start doing the shredding.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

Agree on the TE targets being higher this season than in the past. I believe Jordan is going to be relying on his TE's quite a bit more than #12 did.

So, you see Davis as making the 53?