Week 12 Showdown: Packers at 49ers - potential home field advantage implications.

[OldSchool101]

Arizona hung around Twice on the 49ers. AZ was in both games well into waning minutes of the 4th quarter. GB is plain and simply a better team than AZ on the average day.
Various teams match up differently and GB and 49ers both still have weaknesses. But GB should conceivably be as difficult an opponent as any team the 49ers have faced thus far, even in SF.

Looking at both of our schedules, the 49ers should conceivably lose 2-3 of their final 6 games. If GB upsets them next Sunday this game would have huge implications in securing home field.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

They'd need help against both the 49ers and Saints in that scenario

That's true but not impossible to happen.

I mean they "could" still catch the 49ers if they lose but theyd effectively have to be 3 games better then them the final 5 games to both catch and pass them.... Its fair to say if the Packers want to get the 1 seed this is pretty much a must win

Well, taking a look at their schedule (@BAL, @NO, vs ATL, vs LAR, @SEA) the Niners could definitely lose three of their remaining games after playing the Packers.

The only thing that scares me a little and maybe I'll get push back and someone will ease my mind a bit. This offense, as we saw with Adams being hurt for 4 games, turned out to be really dynamic. Rodgers got everyone involved. When he was out, no one got 10 targets a game and ball was spread around and aside from the Philly game...he had some of the best performances without him on the field. I KNOW, we had a whole thread about not even having a #2 WR and I am not in any way saying the Packers are better WITHOUT Adams. But does the extra feeding to Adams have a possible negative impact on the offense do you think?

Obviously I trust Adams to make a play over Rodgers tossing a few prayers and Lazard answering said prayer. Just a thought, don't shoot.

I'm absolutely fine with Rodgers targeting Adams as long as he doesn't force the ball to him with others being more likely to make a play.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Definitely going to be a tough game against the 9'ers, but I am encouraged by this stat:

Here are the rankings of offenses faced by the 49ers this season ... guess which game they lost?

22nd
30th
28th
24th
21st
29th
19th
15th
4th
15th

 

[Pugger]

Arizona hung around Twice on the 49ers. AZ was in both games well into waning minutes of the 4th quarter. GB is plain and simply a better team than AZ on the average day.
Various teams match up differently and GB and 49ers both still have weaknesses. But GB should conceivably be as difficult an opponent as any team the 49ers have faced thus far, even in SF.

Looking at both of our schedules, the 49ers should conceivably lose 2-3 of their final 6 games. If GB upsets them next Sunday this game would have huge implications in securing home field.

Yes, we are a better team than AZ but these are divisional games and often in these types of games you can throw out records.

 

[Pugger]

Definitely going to be a tough game against the 9'ers, but I am encouraged by this stat:

Here are the rankings of offenses faced by the 49ers this season ... guess which game they lost?

22nd
30th
28th
24th
21st
29th
19th
15th
4th
15th

What is our offensive ranking?

 

[Poppa San]

What is our offensive ranking?

These people have us at 17 for yardage

 

[5x49er]

Definitely going to be a tough game against the 9'ers, but I am encouraged by this stat:

Here are the rankings of offenses faced by the 49ers this season ... guess which game they lost?

22nd
30th
28th
24th
21st
29th
19th
15th
4th
15th

No Kittles, No Sanders still had the game won

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What is our offensive ranking?

Depends on what site you look at. I have seen anywhere from 9th to 14th.

https://www.lineups.com/nfl/teams/team-rankings

These people have us at 17 for yardage

Total offensive yards only tells you a small part of the story, as far as rankings.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Besides Raven Green and Lane Taylor still being on IR and probably lost for the season, when was the last time a Packer team made it to week 12 this healthy?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Stanley]

Definitely going to be a tough game against the 9'ers, but I am encouraged by this stat:

Here are the rankings of offenses faced by the 49ers this season ... guess which game they lost?

22nd
30th
28th
24th
21st
29th
19th
15th
4th
15th

Go back and check the drive results by the Seahawks. Two TD's scored were off of horrible turnovers deep in 49ers territory.

It literally took 100+ yards of flat out dropped passes and a missed FG by a rookie kicker picked up off the streets that week to lose that game.

Your offense isnt a problem for the 49ers. The 49ers turning the ball over is your best shot at victory.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Go back and check the drive results by the Seahawks. Two TD's scored were off of horrible turnovers deep in 49ers territory.

It literally took 100+ yards of flat out dropped passes and a missed FG by a rookie kicker picked up off the streets that week to lose that game.

Your offense isnt a problem for the 49ers. The 49ers turning the ball over is your best shot at victory.

Not sure what you are getting at? I think my point is that the 49'ers have only faced one decent offense this year, that of the Seahawks. During that time, the teams that they have beaten aren't all that impressive either.

• Buccaneers (3-7)
• Bengals (0-10)
• Steelers (5-5)
• Browns (4-6)
• Rams (6-4)
• Redskins (1-9)
• Panthers (5-5)
• Cardinals (3-7)
• Cardinals (3-7)

Record of Teams 49'ers have beat: 30-60

Record of Teams Packers have beat: 41-39

 

[greengold]

These people have us at 17 for yardage

Have to figure there has got to be consideration of a completely new offensive scheme having been implemented during the off season. It takes at least 6 games for a team to develop a comfort level under those circumstances. Those first 6 games must weigh into that standing.

Also, there are differing sources of into. Football Outsiders has GB listed at #6 overall in Offensive Efficiency, #5 in Pass Off. and #3 in Rush Off... FWIW, SEA is ranked #6 overall by FO.

 

[greengold]

Besides Raven Green and Lane Taylor still being on IR and probably lost for the season, when was the last time a Packer team made it to week 12 this healthy?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Honestly, I cannot ever recall a healthier Packers team this late into the season.

 

[OldSchool101]

Have to figure there has got to be consideration of a completely new offensive scheme having been implemented during the off season. It takes at least 6 games for a team to develop a comfort level under those circumstances. Those first 6 games must weigh into that standing.

Also, there are differing sources of into. Football Outsiders has GB listed at #6 overall in Offensive Efficiency, #5 in Pass Off. and #3 in Rush Off... FWIW, SEA is ranked #6 overall by FO.

I haven’t looked this week, but last week we were something like #11 scoring O #12 scoring D. Tynimiller was the leading the regular season projection thread at 12-4 final record and 12th/12th. That should conceivably be spot on as far as our pace. Although we should conceivably improve a few ranking spots now that we’re becoming acclimated. I believe the magic number for playoff success is around 15-17 combined ranking. (E.g. 8th/9th). That’s very attainable.

Not to discount your 6 game preparation concept for a new system, but my guess would be 8-12 weeks before we’re firing on all cylinders Offensively. Not to mention with a new ST system/Coach it’s going to take until the playoffs minimum just to get into a respectable (middle of the league) type rhythm.

I don’t think we’ve had our best game yet on either O and D combined. If we can
1. simply mitigate the rushing D gashing into a respectable range in comparison the the league.
2. if our Offense can clean up the near last place penalty rankings
3. if our ST unit can get some rhythm and simply get into the middle league tier performance wise.
We could beat NE, SF, Baltimore.. you name it. Much will depend on the emphasis and resources thrown at our issues. As of now we’re still a bit sloppy, but that also means greater than average room for improvement.

 

[hasamikun]

I am just scared that the next Bosa will wreck our OLine this season. Nick seems to be even slightly better than Joey and look what he did with our OL.
The things that killed this team were the ridiculous amount of penalties by the OL and the horrendous tackling by the defense. The penalties killed so many drives and its mindboggling why the OL suddenly is so damn unfocused. I dont mind a holding call or two in a game, they are humans after all, but all these false start penalties are stupid.
If the tackling is better, the defense should perform way better than the past games. They missed many sacks because of bad technique and that killed the defense. Otherwise the defense did a solid job and would have done an incredible job when the tackling was somewhat decent.

The 9ers are definitly beatable. This is a huge game, the players should be fired up and the team is incredibly healthy for this stage of the season. It will be a close one but they will win and therefore play themselves to the Pole position for 1st seed in the NFC.

 

[adambr2]

Ultimately, I don't think the 49ers are going to even win their division, which will render HFA talk moot as it relates to them.

 

[757Niner]

Arizona hung around Twice on the 49ers. AZ was in both games well into waning minutes of the 4th quarter. GB is plain and simply a better team than AZ on the average day.
Various teams match up differently and GB and 49ers both still have weaknesses. But GB should conceivably be as difficult an opponent as any team the 49ers have faced thus far, even in SF.

Looking at both of our schedules, the 49ers should conceivably lose 2-3 of their final 6 games. If GB upsets them next Sunday this game would have huge implications in securing home field.

We're a good defense but there a certain teams/schemes that we don't match up well against.

Defensively, our strength is our D-Line. Creating pressure up the middle and having guys like Ford and Bosa clean up, off the edge.

So what kind of offenses would be able to exploit that? Teams that spread you out and attack you, along the hashes with quick passing out of RPO's and running out of spread concepts. Arizona, Seattle, Baltimore, Houston....even Dallas to a certain degree. Those are teams that we will have a hard time containing because it negates our strength as a unit. Traditional offenses with traditional pocket passers are less of a worry for me personally. Not saying we can't lose those games but our defense is set-up to make their lives miserable, offensively.

Outside of Kwon and maybe Warner, we're not a particular fast nor quick, sideline to sideline type of defense. So our ability to defend those types of offenses is not in our wheelhouse. So I wouldn't put too much stock in our troubles with AZ. They're just not a good match-up for us schematically. Just like I think the Ravens are going to run all over us in 2 weeks. We're just not built to handle those college spread type of teams with mobile QBs.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...n-opposing-quarterbacks-but-not-kyler-murray/

But it will be a tough game either way. Our defense is hurting. Ford is out a couple of weeks so we're missing one of our key edge guys, as well as Blair being out for the year so we're not as formidable on the edge as we once were.

Kittle will probably be a gametime decision as will Sanders and I doubt Brieda plays so we're hurting offensively as well. But hopefully we can get those guys back before the playoffs. I think with our defense, we can go into any environment and be able to win so I'm not as adamant about home field advantage as most of our fanbase. I just rather us be relatively healthy heading into the post-season. That is my only concern.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Ultimately, I don't think the 49ers are going to even win their division, which will render HFA talk moot as it relates to them.

Will be an interesting final 6 weeks with most of the contending teams in the NFC playing each other. I would say if we can win this game, we would be the favorite to finish with the best record in the NFC. Lose it and the Saints might be in control.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

We're a good defense but there a certain teams/schemes that we don't match up well against.

Defensively, our strength is our D-Line. Creating pressure up the middle and having guys like Ford and Bosa clean up, off the edge.

So what kind of offenses would be able to exploit that? Teams that spread you out and attack you, along the hashes with quick passing out of RPO's and running out of spread concepts. Arizona, Seattle, Baltimore, Houston....even Dallas to a certain degree. Those are teams that we will have a hard time containing because it negates our strength as a unit. Traditional offenses with traditional pocket passers are less of a worry for me personally. Not saying we can't lose those games but our defense is set-up to make their lives miserable, offensively.

Outside of Kwon and maybe Warner, we're not a particular fast nor quick, sideline to sideline type of defense. So our ability to defend those types of offenses is not in our wheelhouse. So I wouldn't put too much stock in our troubles with AZ. They're just not a good match-up for us schematically. Just like I think the Ravens are going to run all over us in 2 weeks. We're just not built to handle those college spread type of teams.

But it will be a tough game either way. Our defense is hurting. Ford is out a couple of weeks so we're missing one of our key edge guys, as well as Blair being out for the year so we're not as formidable on the edge as we once were.

Kittle will probably be a gametime decision as will Sanders and I doubt Brieda plays so we're hurting offensively as well. But hopefully we can get those guys back before the playoffs. I think with our defense, we can go into any environment and be able to win so I'm not as adamant about home field advantage as most of our fanbase. I just rather us be relatively healthy heading into the post-season. That is my only concern.

Thank you, your post has been forwarded to Coach LeFleur

 

[XPack]

Dee Ford looks likely to miss couple of game. Tough break for them and good news for us.

 

[Poppa San]

We're a good defense but there a certain teams/schemes that we don't match up well against.

So how good are your LBers in coverage? Expect the Packers RBs to line up as WRs or in the slot. If they are covered by DBs they'll motion in and run. If covered by LBers, they'll run WR type routes. The KC game was the blueprint for that.

 

[Mondio]

So how good are your LBers in coverage? Expect the Packers RBs to line up as WRs or in the slot. If they are covered by DBs they'll motion in and run. If covered by LBers, they'll run WR type routes. The KC game was the blueprint for that.

I don't know how good theirs are, but I know our's aren't very good LOL

I think Campbell will only help more as he gets back into better playing shape. 2 ways, he's good at that role and it allows Amos and Savage to start doing what they were signed and drafted to do in the first place. But that middle layer for us on defense is still the weak link.

I expect to see more of Jones AND Williams on the field at the same time this week though.

 

[757Niner]

So how good are your LBers in coverage? Expect the Packers RBs to line up as WRs or in the slot. If they are covered by DBs they'll motion in and run. If covered by LBers, they'll run WR type routes. The KC game was the blueprint for that.

Our LBs are fine in coverage. Kwon's injury really hurt our team speed, sideline to sideline. Greenlaw has filled in admirably and for a rookie, his future looks incredibly bright.

We did a nice job corraling CMC for the Panthers. He broke one long run and had a couple of catches for first downs but other than that, he was pretty much neutralized.

I'm not as worried about Jones out of the backfield as much as I am the screen game. Being that the Wide 9 is intended for guys to get upfield, timely screens can really screw us. We just have to read our keys and understand situational football.

How effective you are able to block the front four will decide the game. We blitz the least out of any defense in the league. We did it more against Seattle and AZ because again, mobile QBs give us problems. Especially with defending the run and RPOs so we blitz to disrupt timing. We might blitz a few times but if our front four is getting home consistently, it plays to our advantage. That's when our defense is in their wheelhouse. If you look at how our defense fared against more traditional offenses, we let our front four 'hunt' and the rest of the D just feeds off their disruption.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think George Kittle and his availability is going to be a key piece to this game. Kittle is the kind of TE that seems to give the Packer Defense fits. If he can't play on Sunday, a big boost for the Packer D. Out of all the TE's the Packer Defense has had to face this season, Kittle IMO would be THE best.

Ertz: 65 yds
Waller: 126 yds
Henry: 84 yds
Kelce: 63 yds
Olson: 98 yds

 

[Poppa San]

If you look at how our defense fared against more traditional offenses, we let our front four 'hunt' and the rest of the D just feeds off their disruption.

You seem to be of the opinion that AR12 is a traditional pocket passer. He runs about as often as he is sacked. When he slides up or out is when he shines. He makes killer passes even more often while he is buying time.