Week 12 Showdown: Packers at 49ers - potential home field advantage implications.

[XPack]

We might blitz a few times but if our front four is getting home consistently, it plays to our advantage.

Without Dee Ford the likelihood of that are less.

 

[OldSchool101]

How effective you are able to block the front four will decide the game. We blitz the least out of any defense in the league. We did it more against Seattle and AZ because again, mobile QBs give us problems. Especially with defending the run and RPOs so we blitz to disrupt timing. We might blitz a few times but if our front four is getting home consistently, it plays to our advantage. That's when our defense is in their wheelhouse. If you look at how our defense fared against more traditional offenses, we let our front four 'hunt' and the rest of the D just feeds off their disruption.

I like that “hunt” analogy.
One thing I will say is that while GB hasn’t been the “best” in pass protection, we’ve been in the top 1/2 so we’re not bad either. Our strength is our OT duo of Bulaga and Bak. When bringing their A game they have the potential to perform as good as duo in the league. So that’s going to be a key focus this week.

But one factor teams that brings GB success this season and most teams thus far didn’t fully account for is a pair of very capable RBs in both the run/pass this season.

The 49ers Offenses have had the luxury of their D keeping opposing Offenses from scoring much if at all, thus utilizing their run game. If GB gets out and scores a few times quickly early in the game, it will force 49ers to play a brand of football they are not accustomed to playing this season. When Russell found a rhythm a few weeks ago, 49ers did everything possible to hang, but they were forced to abandon their strength. The run

 

[757Niner]

You seem to be of the opinion that AR12 is a traditional pocket passer. He runs about as often as he is sacked. When he slides up or out is when he shines. He makes killer passes even more often while he is buying time.

You're confusing player traits with scheme. I'm well aware of how A-Rod maneuvers in the pocket. We've played you all a ton over these last five years. He is one of the best of manipulating the pocket, climbing up or sidestepping the rush and delivering timely dimes down the field. And if the defenders turn their backs, he can move the chains with his legs.

But your offense is basically Kyle Shananhan's. Your scheme isn't geared to put us in those some quandaries at the mesh point like Kingsbury and Roman's. You don't run out of the same 4 wide spread looks. And if you do, we're not as concern with the QB keepers because A-Rod isn't out-running a LB or S who happens to have a bad run fit or takes a bad angle. There's levels to this. And there isn't the same kind of urgency with those RPOs with non-running QBs.

And A-Rod is no Murray nor Wilson in terms of escapability. He can make you pay if you go Cover 1 or dial up a blitz and don't account for him. But he isn't a running QB, which is very different. You definitely have to stay in your rush lines and confine him but he isn't slithering out of would be sacks like a Murray or a Wilson. Not in that way.

Wilson was the talk of the league before he played us and is a definitive MVP candidate. And though he had a couple of key plays where he did his little magician act, he had his worst game of the year against us in terms of comp %, QBR, 3rd down efficiency, ints and passes defensed.

Rodgers presents whole new set of problems from the pocket. He's going to shred the back end if the big trees we have upfront don't consistently get push and dont allow him to step up and climb, while locating targets downfield. And our backend has to be able to hang in coverage and keep a eye on receivers when he scrambles. And we definitely have to mix up coverages. Can't just drop back in a Cover 3 or Cover 2 shell and think A-Rod isn't going to feast. We have to 'sell' looks, then morph into something else, post snap. If we have to blitz to get to him, its over for us...

 

[OldSchool101]

You're confusing player traits with scheme. I'm well aware of how A-Rod maneuvers in the pocket. We've played you all a ton over these last five years. He is one of the best of manipulating the pocket, climbing up or sidestepping the rush and delivering timely dimes down the field. And if the defenders turn their backs, he can move the chains with his legs.

But your offense is basically Kyle Shananhan's. Your scheme isn't geared to put us in those some quandaries at the mesh point like Kingsbury and Roman's. You don't run out of the same 4 wide spread looks. And if you do, we're not as concern with the QB keepers because A-Rod isn't out-running a LB or S who happens to have a bad run fit or takes a bad angle. There's levels to this. And there isn't the same kind of urgency with those RPOs with non-running QBs.

And A-Rod is no Murray nor Wilson in terms of escapability. He can make you pay if you go Cover 1 or dial up a blitz and don't account for him. But he isn't a running QB, which is very different. You definitely have to stay in your rush lines and confine him but he isn't slithering out of would be sacks like a Murray or a Wilson. Not in that way.

Wilson was the talk of the league before he played us and is a definitive MVP candidate. And though he had a couple of key plays where he did his little magician act, he had his worst game of the year against us in terms of comp %, QBR, 3rd down efficiency, ints and passes defensed.

Rodgers presents whole new set of problems from the pocket. He's going to shred the back end if the big trees we have upfront don't consistently get push and dont allow him to step up and climb, while locating targets downfield. And our backend has to be able to hang in coverage and keep a eye on receivers when he scrambles. And we definitely have to mix up coverages. Can just drop back in a Cover 3 and think A-Rod isn't going to feast. We have to 'sell' looks, then morph into something else, post snap.

Sounds like you at least recognize this. But I’ll say this again. Something overlooked in Aaron’s game. Several seasons ago, #12 was on pace to finish top 5 QBs in history of the NFL in rushing yards.
Even with all his injuries..
Last year he finished #12 out of all QBs, this year he’s currently at #9. While not flashy, He’s deceptively good. It’s just about the time of the game that Defenses play the pass, he punishes you for a 1st down. Most of these go under the radar, but they are a primary ingredient in an award recipe of success. What’s nice is it’s subtle enough to go under the radar and Defenses don’t account for it.

It’s the very attitude that you insinuated above (and common mistake) that allows his success. He’s not a Deshaun Watson or Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick and he will last longer because of it. When the game is on the line, particularly playoffs, he’ll ramp it.

 

[757Niner]

I like that “hunt” analogy.
One thing I will say is that while GB hasn’t been the “best” in pass protection, we’ve been in the top 1/2 so we’re not bad either. Our strength is our OT duo of Bulaga and Bak. When bringing their A game they have the potential to perform as good as duo in the league. So that’s going to be a key focus this week.

But one factor teams that brings GB success this season and most teams thus far didn’t fully account for is a pair of very capable RBs in both the run/pass this season.

The 49ers Offenses have had the luxury of their D keeping opposing Offenses from scoring much of at all, thus utilizing their run game. If GB gets out and scores a few times quickly early in the game, it will force 49ers to play a brand of football they are not accustomed to playing this season. When Russell found a rhythm a few weeks ago, 49ers did everything possible to hang, but they were forced to abandon their strength. The run

True, but honestly we haven't run the ball effectively for weeks now. Defenses just realized they're much better off stacking the box and selling out to stop the run, putting the ball in Jimmy G's hands and forcing us to pass, even on 1st down.

I mean, that's how I would play us. Take out the Carolina game and our run offense has been very poor since we've played the Rams. Losing Staley and McG, our starting tackles as well as not having Juice for 4 weeks was what most fans hung the meager production on. But McG and Juice have returned and we're still struggling. We ran for 79 yards totally last Sunday....that's abysmal. Especially for a Shanahan offense. Kyle has always maintained his run game is geared to run the ball, even if they stack the box. Well it needs to get in gear because we haven't been good running the ball for awhile now.

So the offense right now, is in the hands of Jimmy. And those hands have been turnover prone all year. He's definitely going to give you a int...or two. He's been doing it all year. I don't even get mad or surprised anymore....it is what it is. We just hope he makes enough good throws to even it out and not put us in the negative.

 

[OldSchool101]

True, but honestly we haven't run the ball effectively for weeks now. Defenses just realized they're much better off stacking the box and selling out to stop the run, putting the ball in Jimmy G's hands and forcing us to pass, even on 1st down.

I mean, that's how I would play us. Take out the Carolina game and our run offense has been very poor since we've played the Rams. Losing Staley and McG, our starting tackles as well as not having Juice for 4 weeks was what most fans hung the meager production on. But McG and Juice have returned and we're still struggling. We ran for 79 yards totally last Sunday....that's abysmal. Especially for a Shanahan offense. Kyle has always maintained his run game is geared to run the ball, even if they stack the box. Well it needs to get in gear because we haven't been good running the ball for awhile now.

So the offense right now, is in the hands of Jimmy. And those hands have been turnover prone all year. He's definitely going to give you a int...or two. He's been doing it all year. I don't even get mad or surprised anymore....it is what it is. We just hope he makes enough good throws to even it out and not put us in the negative.

It’s going to be the usual stuff, +-TO ratio, field position and winning the LOS in the trenches that decides this one. Obviously the individual matchups.

But most importantly it’s going to give a good display of who’s ascending and who’s not or possibly just a slug fest with 2 capable teams.
It’s one of the more exciting contests this year. Should be fun watching 2 top NFC teams duke it out. I would not want to have the 49ers schedule going forward. Lol

 

[757Niner]

It’s going to be the usual stuff, +-TO ratio, field position and winning the LOS in the trenches that decides this one. Obviously the individual matchups.

But most importantly it’s going to give a good display of who’s ascending and who’s not or possibly just a slug fest with 2 capable teams.
It’s one of the more exciting contests this year. Should be fun watching 2 top NFC teams duke it out. I would not want to have the 49ers schedule going forward. Lol

YES!

I'm eager to see our defense against a living legend. It will be a test we haven't faced this year, to date. Arguably the best pocket passer in the game is coming to town and will be a HUGE limus test for defense, especially the secondary.

I want to see how Jimmy and the offense responds. He'll be facing a QB that will definitely take advantage of any extra possessions he gives him so I want to see if he's up to the challenge and takes care of the ball.

I want to see how our 'D fairs against a Top 3 QB. Will they be discplined on the backend and sound enough to hold up in coverage? Can the defensive front cause enough havoc and make Rodgers a little antsy from the pocket?

Absolutely believe it will be a great game and just hope both squads come out injury-free, as we close out the rest of the year.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Absolutely believe it will be a great game and just hope both squads come out injury-free, as we close out the rest of the year.

Took the words out of my mouth there. Even though I'm obviously cheering on my guys, it's good to see the ... How shall I say it ... Playoff rivalry if you will revived. Just a lot of history centered around the playoffs vs these two teams

Favre vs Young in the 90s

Holmgren vs his old boss Seifert, and later Mariucci

Then later McCarthy vs Harbaugh, Rodgers vs Kaep

Now a new chapter with LaFleur vs his old buddy Shannahan and Rodgers vs Garropolo

I think there's a good chance these two teams could be playing each other in big playoff games again over the next few years. You guys got a great team there and looking forward to the matchup.

 

[RRyder]

I think George Kittle and his availability is going to be a key piece to this game. Kittle is the kind of TE that seems to give the Packer Defense fits. If he can't play on Sunday, a big boost for the Packer D. Out of all the TE's the Packer Defense has had to face this season, Kittle IMO would be THE best.

Ertz: 65 yds
Waller: 126 yds
Henry: 84 yds
Kelce: 63 yds
Olson: 98 yds

I'm more then willing to give Kittle the nod for 2nd best TE in the league but the best is Kelce and I dont consider it particularly close

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm more then willing to give Kittle the nod for 2nd best TE in the league but the best is Kelce and I dont consider it particularly close

That might be the case, but not when Moore is the QB. Had Mahomes played the night we played the Chiefs, Kelce's numbers would have been much higher and the Packers might not have won that game.

My main point was the fact that TE's have killed the Packers all season and Kittle is a top 5 TE. As a Packer fan, I will breath a sigh of relief if he can't suit up on Sunday night.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Beatable yes, but our offense really needs to stop making things more difficult on themselves the way they do sometimes.

Considering all the flack the defense takes, bend but don't break can give us a shot. But it's still on the offense to make opponents pay when they only kick FGs.

All NFL defenses are bend but don't break at best. The rules make true shut down defense nearly impossible to do on a consistent basis now.

 

[AmishMafia]

This will be our toughest game of the year.

SF has an impressive defensive front that will give our OL difficulties. Need to work on quicker plays. Slants and play action. Draws and screens and anything to slow down the pass rush. Delay handoffs up the middle. If Jones can get past the first defender, he could do well.

This will be the biggest test of our OL which is scary base on our recent poor performances.

On defense we will do better if Kittle is out. He could have a huge game in our porous middle.

Packers 20 - 49ers 17

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The things that killed this team were the ridiculous amount of penalties by the OL and the horrendous tackling by the defense. The penalties killed so many drives and its mindboggling why the OL suddenly is so damn unfocused. I dont mind a holding call or two in a game, they are humans after all, but all these false start penalties are stupid.

The Packers offensive line struggled to protect Rodgers even while not committing penalties against the Chargers as well. They need to step up their game to win against the Niners.

All NFL defenses are bend but don't break at best. The rules make true shut down defense nearly impossible to do on a consistent basis now.

There are several defenses (including the Niners) capable of not allowing as many yards as the Packers though.

 

[PackAttack12]

Rodgers in his Wednesday presser (slightly paraphrasing):

“The way I look at it, we’re going to have to win there (San Francisco) once before the end of the season, we may as well do it this Sunday”

Inject this into my veins. Melike borderline cocky AR.

 

[gbgary]

Rodgers in his Wednesday presser (slightly paraphrasing):

“The way I look at it, we’re going to have to win there (San Francisco) once before the end of the season, we may as well do it this Sunday”

Inject this into my veins. Melike borderline cocky AR.

i'd rather he have said "we’re going to have to win there (San Francisco) once before the end of the season, we might as well win game two." (nfc championship game)

this weeks game scares me.

 

[PackAttack12]

i'd rather he have said "we’re going to have to win there (San Francisco) once before the end of the season, we might as well win game two." (nfc championship game)

this weeks game scares me.

He was implying that if we win Sunday, game 2 will be at Lambeau.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

i'd rather he have said "we’re going to have to win there (San Francisco) once before the end of the season, we might as well win game two." (nfc championship game)

this weeks game scares me.

That comes as a huge surprise that you would have liked Rodgers to say something different.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Gotta love this old clip! Obviously a very true statement over time, let's hope it holds doubly true on Sunday night!

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[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

this weeks game scares me.

Why let it scare you, just say their going to loose to the 49'ers.

I wrote that GB was going to loose early in this post and I was called a troll.

Just putting in writing my gut feeling about this game.

Let's talk after Sunday evening so I can say: "I told you so."

 

[HardRightEdge]

Statistical Matchups

3rd. Down Conversions

Packers offense: 37%, (trending up to 44% over the last 3 weeeks despite)
49er defense: 30%, (trending weaker to 36% over the last 3 weeks)

49er's offense: 47%, 4th. ranked (on trend at 51% over the last 3)
Packer's defense: 41%, 19th. ranked (on trend over the last 3 weeks to 47%)

Both performance to date and recent trends indicate SF will do a better job controlling the ball and metriculating field before taking turnovers into account.

4th. Down Conversions

Packer offense: 0-3 (the only team to not convert a 4th. down this season while making the fewest attempts)
49er defense: 2-13

49er offense: 4-8
Packer defense: 4-8

It's difficult to reckon whether a game will turn on these plays given their infrequecy (Packers one per game, 49ers two per game) and without situational breakdowns (like opponent desperation tries), a failure to execute amounts to a turnover. Such failure is a forfeiture of punting field position or foregoing the opportunity for a FG. The averages indicate 1.5 such plays with SF having demonstrable superiority. I would equate that to the equivalent of somewhere around a half to a full turnover differential per game advantage to SF.

Chunk Plays

I'm adding this only because of a note this week from PFF courtesy of their free emai sign-up. PFF stated that Rodgers is their top rated QB on throws of 10 or more air yards. Since I don't watch ever frickin' QB in every game I'll take that at face value for the sake of argument.

Previously, I did a breakdown of Packer 3rd. down performace by distance in the thread entitled conveniently "Third Down Performance". Packer 3rd. down performance from 11+ yards is dismal...10%. From 1-3 yards it is also poor at 48%. When you get to 4-6 yards (61%) and 7-10 yards (40%) the numbers are outstanding which include 3rd. down no-play penalties to boot.

This picture presents an odd conclusion: Rodgers has been superior throwing for chunks on 1st. and 2nd. down and/or those mid-rage 3rd. down throws with 4-10 yards to go.

I don't know how to quantify this into one particular match-up. But it does seem to go some ways in explaining how this Packer team has managed to get to the red zone despite being so late so often getting out of the huddle.

Tunovers

Packers giveaways: 7
49er. takeways: 22

49er. giveaways: 17
Packer takeaways: 16

These numbers along with the Packers net +4 advantage on the season gives the Packers about a 1/2 turnover advantage. That's more or less wiped out by the SF edge on 4th. down.

Garoppolo's been pretty loose with the ball, 10 INTs and 7 fumbles (how many of which were turnovers on the bounce of the ball I don't know). Then again, he had 4 INTs against AZ and still managed a win. So you've got an intangible winning factor, Garoppolo now 17-3 for his career as a starter, including finishing 5-0 with that 1-10 49er team in 2017, another example of an injured dog with a bite, the kind to watch out for going forward.

Red Zone TD Scoring

Packers offense: 69% on 35 trips
49er defense: 41% on 22 trips

49er offense: 50% on 40 trips
Packer defense: 49% on 33 trips

On a % basis the Packers get the edge. The 8-2 record is built on red zone performance on both sides of the ball. This is indicated by the Packers scoring only 4.5 points per game more than opponents on average. (As an aside, the fact that Seattle and New Orleans point differentials are narrower illustrates the lack of dominanance among these 8-2 teams.)

However, 49er dominance on 3rd. down is evidenced in the number of trips to the red zone; the get there more often and only New England has kept the opponent out of close scoring range more often.

I believe the 49er defense preventing such trips gives them the edge. It should be noted, however, that Garoppolo has turned the ball over in the red zone five times this season. The Packers might need one of those to flip the script.

20+ Yard TDs

Long range TD scoring in a particular game upends any red zone superiority.

The Packers offense has had 6 such plays.
The 49ers defense has allowed 6 such plays.

The 49er offense has had 11 such plays.
Packer opponents have allowed 7 such plays.

The 49ers offense gets an edge here. Not a big edge, but it is about one extra long TD every two games.

Conclusion

The betting public says 49ers -3 to -3.5, depending on which book you look at. The 49ers are accorded anywhere from zero to a 1/2 point advantage above the 3 points for home field. Anything can happen on any given Sunday (and in this case I hope it does), but the statistical balance of power goes to the 49ers for the win and covering the spread.

Perhaps that's because of this from Nick Wagoner at ESPN:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers

"49ers are going to have a lot of key players coming down to the wire this week when it comes to playing against Green Bay on Sunday night. TE George Kittle (knee, ankle), WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder), K Robbie Gould (quad), WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs), DE Dee Ford (hamstring), RB Matt Breida (ankle) and OT Joe Staley (finger) are all not expected to practice today, according to coach Kyle Shanahan."

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that because of the import of this game most of those guys will be playing. Let's hope Garoppolo gets loose with the ball; that's the best possible scenario to pull an upset.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Gotta love this old clip! Obviously a very true statement over time, let's hope it holds doubly true on Sunday night!

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Yeah, well, there's Jan. 12, 2013 and Jan 5, 2014. I think at this stage, at this age after all these seasons, and especially after the last two seasons, there's not much of that chip left on the shoulder.

 

[swhitset]

Why let it scare you, just say their going to loose to the 49'ers.

I wrote that GB was going to loose early in this post and I was called a troll.

Just putting in writing my gut feeling about this game.

Let's talk after Sunday evening so I can say: "I told you so."

And then you can be happy patting yourself on the back while those of us that are Packer fans will be disappointed. I’d still rather be in the latter group thank you very much.

 

[Mondio]

And then you can be happy patting yourself on the back while those of us that are Packer fans will be disappointed. I’d still rather be in the latter group thank you very much.

we do have a few who love it when we lose don't we. Seems odd

 

[OldSchool101]

Why let it scare you, just say their going to loose to the 49'ers.

I wrote that GB was going to loose early in this post and I was called a troll.

Just putting in writing my gut feeling about this game.

Let's talk after Sunday evening so I can say: "I told you so."

Predicting a win or loss is easy. You’ve got a 50/50 shot (maybe better considering SF has a better record and plays at home).
But will you have the same audacity, energy and enthusiasm about making sure everyone knows in the event you are wrong? Now that kind of integrity would impress me

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Great, as soon as I post something about the 7 49'er starters that didn't practice yesterday, I see this.

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