Packers at Giants Pregame Thread

[OldSchool101]

Well it’s been 2 tough losses. The Eagles wouldn’t have felt so bad had we beat Carolina. It is what it is. We’ll need a reset game and regardless of our track record as of late this game becomes important to regain some respect.

One thing that’s been overshadowed by our Losses. In these last couple of games we’ve been in transition. We’ve had some extremely tough player losses that would really impact any team. While I’m not solely blaming our losses on injuries, I do think it factored that during our last 2 weeks we’ve had an unusual proportion of Offensive injuries and what happened? The Offense did in game substitutions and struggled a bit.

However the Defense has steadily been returning players (Wooden, Wyatt etc) and what happened? They allowed 26 points across the last pair of games. Thats 3 TD’s across 8 quarters of play. 1 of the 3 TD’s allowed coming off a INT at the GB38.
Our D is quietly #7 in scoring and #5 in yards per. There’s really 1 game where the D allowed more than 25 points. In that Dallas game 2 points were scored off a Safety and a TD from a goal to Go turnover. Without drastic failures by our Offense we’re talking 31 points and 3 came from an FG at the end of OT. Could’ve easily been 28pts in regulation without Teams or Offense fouling things up. We’re even seeing some intensity on that side. Our D is taking things personal and not being shy about it.
Another uptick is 4 takeaways in 4 weeks. If that trend continues we can keep games low scoring for our struggling Offense and Teams.

We’ve overshadowed a pair of brilliant Defensive performance with ugly Offensive play. An announcement today from the Brass was that “Matt LaFleur will resume playcalling duties”. We’ve finally admitted there’s a problem in bass backwards way. The microscope is on Matt and this Offense.

 

[OldSchool101]

When the offense struggles sometimes a shake up is needed. Until we get Luke more involved I feel our RB group can be more productive. Get some 2 RBack sets and send 1 out for a Pass in short yardage. All 3 RB’s have shown ability in the passing game. Matter of fact the more they see the ball in the passing game, the better we’ve played overall. Take the short high probability 3-5 yard passes where you can draw interference and give our RBs more than just 300lb unblocked men to run through. YAC

As far as Receivers. While we’re currently without our best 2 producers from 2024, not all hope is lost. Romeo is on pace to match 2024 Reed. Reed should be back in about a month. Watson is Back and he was VERY close to a big play against the Eagles that would’ve changed the game dynamic imo. I listened to the game but after watching it, If he catches that ball GB scores there and its a TD on that drive. Too many drops last week.

Hopefully Golden missing time last week was more precaution and we’ll see him practice this week. Getting some sets with Golden and Watson opposite with Wicks underneath will hold the Safties pretty steady. If not expect to get punished in a few longer throws. GB has traveled better once they got young. It’s the first thing I noticed when Rodgers left. I think they come to play this week.

 

[milani]

Well it’s been 2 tough losses. The Eagles wouldn’t have felt so bad had we beat Carolina. It is what it is. We’ll need a reset game and regardless of our track record as of late this game becomes important to regain some respect.

One thing that’s been overshadowed by our Losses. In these last couple of games we’ve been in transition. We’ve had some extremely tough player losses that would really impact any team. While I’m not solely blaming our losses on injuries, I do think it factored that during our last 2 weeks we’ve had an unusual proportion of Offensive injuries and what happened? The Offense did in game substitutions and struggled a bit.

However the Defense has steadily been returning players (Wooden, Wyatt etc) and what happened? They allowed 26 points across the last pair of games. Thats 3 TD’s across 8 quarters of play. 1 of the 3 TD’s allowed coming off a INT at the GB38.
Our D is quietly #7 in scoring and #5 in yards per. There’s really 1 game where the D allowed more than 25 points. In that Dallas game 2 points were scored off a Safety and a TD from a goal to Go turnover. Without drastic failures by our Offense we’re talking 31 points and 3 came from an FG at the end of OT. Could’ve easily been 28pts in regulation without Teams or Offense fouling things up. We’re even seeing some intensity on that side. Our D is taking things personal and not being shy about it.
Another uptick is 4 takeaways in 4 weeks. If that trend continues we can keep games low scoring for our struggling Offense and Teams.

We’ve overshadowed a pair of brilliant Defensive performance with ugly Offensive play. An announcement today from the Brass was that “Matt LaFleur will resume playcalling duties”. We’ve finally admitted there’s a problem in bass backwards way. The microscope is on Matt and this Offense.

We may have to play vanilla for a while. Losing Kraft and Jenkins sets us back and the receivers have to try and take whatever they can find. Try to focus on 1st downs. And if we must kick FGs..Make them.

 

[tynimiller]

Losing Kraft and now Jenkins and Banks playing like dog ****, the last thing we need to do is try running the ball a ton. Our passing game needs to set up the run...Luke sucks at run blocking as the game wears on...so it's tough for MLF to keep defense guessing with Luke as much. Air it out...

 

[milani]

Losing Kraft and now Jenkins and Banks playing like dog ****, the last thing we need to do is try running the ball a ton. Our passing game needs to set up the run...Luke sucks at run blocking as the game wears on...so it's tough for MLF to keep defense guessing with Luke as much. Air it out...

I kind of a agree. Surprisingly, we did not get called for a slew of holding penalties on the OL Monday. But the Giants are 31st in run defense. They have at least one good pass rusher. The Giants will key on the run. If we get them on their heels through the air Jacobs could bust a couple.

 

[Magooch]

The Giants have the 22nd-ranked defense in terms of passing EPA/play and 32nd in rush defense by the same measure.

I fear LaFleur will look at this (well, kind of. I am not entirely convinced as of yet that our staff is actually looking much at advanced analytics at all, lol) and think "Looks like a great opportunity to open up the run game," but 22nd is not a good passing defense either. With our current personnel, despite the Giants having an awful run defense, I think going super run-heavy is going to be the wrong approach... I know we always want to be a "run to establish the pass" type of team but this situation IMO is one that *screams* "pass to establish the run". We shall see though...

 

[OldSchool101]

Losing Kraft and now Jenkins and Banks playing like dog ****, the last thing we need to do is try running the ball a ton. Our passing game needs to set up the run...Luke sucks at run blocking as the game wears on...so it's tough for MLF to keep defense guessing with Luke as much. Air it out...

I totally agree. Our mix should be
60-40 to 65-35 Pass. Last season we were 52% Run for obvious reasons.

I will offer that when Defenses are fresh? I’d pass it earlier, but take quick 1-2 read stuff. Don’t get caught holding the ball too long. Run just enough to keep them honest.
Let the D wear down a little, then in the 2nd Quarter and 4th Quarters you can run a little more. I’ve noticed our success opens when Defenses are tired. Keep Josh under 15 Runs until later in the game.

Now this is NOT some ultimatum proclamatum! Be pliable on play calling. If in those limited Runs Jacobs just happens to be at 5.0 per? Level the Mix a little to 55-45 etc. Don’t keep running into a brick wall though. Mix in more RB passes and I’m talking they block and leak out for 3-5 yards.

 

[OldSchool101]

Regarding our Defense. Now granted we have not faced the most explosive Offenses yet. Due to we’ve only played 9 games we need to factor “per game” “per snap” etc. it’s a more accurate depiction of where our D stands. It seems like our Offense often puts our Defense in compromising situations, yet we’re 7th allowed in scoring. We have longed for that type Defense for decades.

The Packers are #2, tied with Seattle and Houston at 4.6 yards per olay allowed. On either side of us are the #1 ranked Denver Broncos 4.3 yards allowed and the 5th ranked Cleveland Browns at 4.7 yards per play. Only 6 Defenses post a yards per play <= 4.9 yards. That just speaks to how stingy GB has been. Our other phases have not helped. Between Turnovers on our side of the field or even a Safety allowed by Teams that gets added to “points allowed” we’ve not played complimentary ball and it’s hurt our Defense.

I think many would agree our strength is upfront. We are tied at #4 in per Run at 3.8 per (Patriots, Raiders). We are tied at #2 in Net Yards per attempt Passing (5.1 per). Only the #1 Denver Broncos are better (4.9 per). Total yards allowed per game are #5. So even though we think we give up lots of long drives? it’s not consistent with factual data. Since our Dallas game in Week 3? we’ve allowed an impressive 18.4 points per contest. In our last 3 contests we’ve allowed 17.0 points per. So the Defense is trending perfectly.

What this all comes back to is playing complimentary football. Our strength is forcing quick plays. Almost every team we’ve played fully understands they better not get caught holding the ball against the Packers Defense. So what’s the 1 thing the Offense can do to help opponents hold the ball longer? Exactly. Get an early lead. The bigger the lead. The faster the lead. The more opponents will be forced to drop back for 10+ yard throws. That feeds EXACTLY into our strength. So far the Sacks aren’t coming because opponents won’t let them, they thrive on 1-2 look reads. Ball comes quickly. That and a heavy mix of Running.

The Packers can no longer afford to average 8.44 yards in the first Half. When we start fast? It feeds into our D strength. Quit the vanilla Runs all over the first half and open up the throttle. I’d go long on play #1 and I’m not joking. Line up Watson and Golden in opposite Boundaries and go 12 personnel with Kinnard eligible and Fitz opposite or go empty backfield. Send Musgrave on a medium crosser and double go route Golden and Watson. Take a couple long shots early on. Rely on our D to hold and pound them through the Air like they’ve never seen this year.

 

[Magooch]

I was thinking about this yesterday too, specifically regarding our pass defense. I know for myself and many others there were some big concerns regarding our DBs, or more specifically the CB group. And granted it does seem like one (or more) of them are good for getting burnt at least a time or two per game, but overall the result has still been pretty positive.

But we are also pretty middle-of-the-pack when it comes to overall "scoring prevention" i.e. the number of opponent drives that are ending in some sort of a score. When you consider the number of points we are allowing (which are quite low) but that roughly 40% of opponent drives end in some sort of score, that suggests to me that even if we aren't allowing "long" drives (in terms of total yardage accumulated) we are allowing "long" drives in terms of the time the opponent is allowed to control the ball. As it were...we are top-10 in YARDS allowed per drive on defense, but we are second worst in the league in terms of TIME allowed per drive on defense. Only the Saints are allowing more time per defensive drive.

BUT, I do think that also speaks to (a lack of) complimentary football, at least to some extent. We are not generating takeaways and our special teams are poor, and our offense has been struggling. I'm not sure exactly what the term for it is or how to best verbalize it... but it's like, sometimes a defense can look "worse" when an offense is driving down the field quickly and scoring or getting into "shootouts" because it simply results in the defense being on the field more frequently and/or the opponent is playing more fast paced because they need to keep up. Or, similarly, sometimes a defense looks bad because their offense fails so quickly it forces them right back out there. Their numbers suffer as a result.

For us ironically right now it feels like we have the opposite going on in a weird way. We're not really getting into shootouts and our opponent doesn't feel like they need to play fast-paced to try and match our pace; in fact I think they would prefer to slow things down on us. And it's not like our offense is so wholly ineffective that it's just a constant string of quick 3-and-outs; the offense is able to put together decent enough drives but not finishing them. So as a result, we're producing these (relatively) long drives without scoring, and then our opponent can turn around and match with a similarly long (time-wise) drive that does often end in a score, and we just can't "keep up" offensively. And our defense - while generally playing well overall - is still very much a bend-but-don't-break philosophy and it doesn't really generate many turnovers at all, so we're not flipping the ball or field back quickly. It's like a weird anti-shootout lol.

 

[OldSchool101]

I was thinking about this yesterday too, specifically regarding our pass defense. I know for myself and many others there were some big concerns regarding our DBs, or more specifically the CB group. And granted it does seem like one (or more) of them are good for getting burnt at least a time or two per game, but overall the result has still been pretty positive.

But we are also pretty middle-of-the-pack when it comes to overall "scoring prevention" i.e. the number of opponent drives that are ending in some sort of a score. When you consider the number of points we are allowing (which are quite low) but that roughly 40% of opponent drives end in some sort of score, that suggests to me that even if we aren't allowing "long" drives (in terms of total yardage accumulated) we are allowing "long" drives in terms of the time the opponent is allowed to control the ball. As it were...we are top-10 in YARDS allowed per drive on defense, but we are second worst in the league in terms of TIME allowed per drive on defense. Only the Saints are allowing more time per defensive drive.

BUT, I do think that also speaks to (a lack of) complimentary football, at least to some extent. We are not generating takeaways and our special teams are poor, and our offense has been struggling. I'm not sure exactly what the term for it is or how to best verbalize it... but it's like, sometimes a defense can look "worse" when an offense is driving down the field quickly and scoring or getting into "shootouts" because it simply results in the defense being on the field more frequently and/or the opponent is playing more fast paced because they need to keep up. Or, similarly, sometimes a defense looks bad because their offense fails so quickly it forces them right back out there. Their numbers suffer as a result.

For us ironically right now it feels like we have the opposite going on in a weird way. We're not really getting into shootouts and our opponent doesn't feel like they need to play fast-paced to try and match our pace; in fact I think they would prefer to slow things down on us. And it's not like our offense is so wholly ineffective that it's just a constant string of quick 3-and-outs; the offense is able to put together decent enough drives but not finishing them. So as a result, we're producing these (relatively) long drives without scoring, and then our opponent can turn around and match with a similarly long (time-wise) drive that does often end in a score, and we just can't "keep up" offensively. And our defense - while generally playing well overall - is still very much a bend-but-don't-break philosophy and it doesn't really generate many turnovers at all, so we're not flipping the ball or field back quickly. It's like a weird anti-shootout lol.

The Giants run the ball moderately well at 123 yards per game. They aren’t Carolina at #4 Running the ball though NY would like nothing more than to slow this Game down with a nice 150 yards per game performance Run performance and keep it low scoring and nip us at the end as we self implode. That’s really been the recipe for teams. They know our Teams are below average so they can 50/50 win a closer game.

The antidote to our strength is still getting a lead. Just like Weeks 1-2 17pts, 14pts at halftime and we just throttled teams because they played catch up. They go vertical but anything past 10 yards and Micah is in your face. So opponents are Dnk n dunk and that even went for Philly.

To counter if you get into a 13-3 lead you begin to force teams to mix in more medium to longer passing attempts as it slows the clock down if incomplete or offers a 19 yard gainer. Which = a 4 minute points drive. The issue with that is it feeds into the Packers strength on Defense. We get disruptive and force an error on those longer plays. A Sack. An errant throw. Etc. Imo it’s imperative to not make this all about Jacobs running if he’s at 10 carries for 3.6 per. Limit the Rushes to about 20-25. We should be throwing it 35-40 times here. Mix in a couple to Watson like quick 30+ over the top where he’s in stride and it’s either him or nobody. Use his length and put it up high and long.

 

[DoURant]

Jaxson Dart is in Concussion protocol, so Jameis Winston will be the Giants starting QB on Sunday.

 

[milani]

The Giants have the 22nd-ranked defense in terms of passing EPA/play and 32nd in rush defense by the same measure.

I fear LaFleur will look at this (well, kind of. I am not entirely convinced as of yet that our staff is actually looking much at advanced analytics at all, lol) and think "Looks like a great opportunity to open up the run game," but 22nd is not a good passing defense either. With our current personnel, despite the Giants having an awful run defense, I think going super run-heavy is going to be the wrong approach... I know we always want to be a "run to establish the pass" type of team but this situation IMO is one that *screams* "pass to establish the run". We shall see though...

Exactly how to play it. A lot of the Giants horrific numbers were in that early stretch while Wilson led that offense. They took the Boys to OT like us but lost. And then they actually get beat by the Saints. It can be a hard team to read. They split with the Eagles. If the Packers are going to regain confidence they need to manhandle someone like the Lions have done to several opponents this year. We tend to be nice guys.

 

[OldSchool101]

Jaxson Dart is in Concussion protocol, so Jameis Winston will be the Giants starting QB on Sunday.

Thanks for the heads up @DoURant Winston has been in the league for 10 seasons. Interestingly enough he’s never eclipsed 65% Receptions per target in a season (64.6% high). Last 2024 season he finished exactly at his career average 61.1% receptions, which is moderately low. His decision making has always been suspect. He has a 3:2 TD:INT ratio career. Last 2024 season was one of his worst statistical years. While he had a respectable 2,121 yards Passing across 7 contests, he threw for 13 TD’s to 12 INT and a 2-5 record. His 7.2 per attempt was just under his 7.6 per career average.

Jameis is a Bigger QB at 6’4” X 231lb, but more average to minimal run threat.
His 4.0 per Run is actually respectable. However he’s the opposite of a big play using his legs. His career high across 323 rushing attempts is just 26 yards. In his Rookie season he posted 6 Rushing TD’s. Since then he’s never had more than 1 Rushing TD in a season.

As I scanned his career, 1 other QB immediately came to mind. A near perfect comparable is Jacoby Brissett. Jacoby is slightly better with decision making in protecting the ball and slightly more of a threat Running in a Goal to go scenario. Jameis will push the ball downfield more often, but he’s bordering on Reckless doing so.

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[Schultz]

The Giants run the ball moderately well at 123 yards per game. They aren’t Carolina at #4 Running the ball though NY would like nothing more than to slow this Game down with a nice 150 yards per game performance Run performance and keep it low scoring and nip us at the end as we self implode. That’s really been the recipe for teams. They know our Teams are below average so they can 50/50 win a closer game.

The antidote to our strength is still getting a lead. Just like Weeks 1-2 17pts, 14pts at halftime and we just throttled teams because they played catch up. They go vertical but anything past 10 yards and Micah is in your face. So opponents are Dnk n dunk and that even went for Philly.

To counter if you get into a 13-3 lead you begin to force teams to mix in more medium to longer passing attempts as it slows the clock down if incomplete or offers a 19 yard gainer. Which = a 4 minute points drive. The issue with that is it feeds into the Packers strength on Defense. We get disruptive and force an error on those longer plays. A Sack. An errant throw. Etc. Imo it’s imperative to not make this all about Jacobs running if he’s at 10 carries for 3.6 per. Limit the Rushes to about 20-25. We should be throwing it 35-40 times here. Mix in a couple to Watson like quick 30+ over the top where he’s in stride and it’s either him or nobody. Use his length and put it up high and long.

Without Skatteboo and Dart if the Giants get 100 yards rushing I consider that a big L for the D.

 

[OldSchool101]

Without Skatteboo and Dart if the Giants get 100 yards rushing I consider that a big L for the D.

Very good point.

PS when you said “Big L” all I could think of was our Poster Big L who’s always talking about food! during the live game threads!

 

[Pugger]

When the offense struggles sometimes a shake up is needed. Until we get Luke more involved I feel our RB group can be more productive. Get some 2 RBack sets and send 1 out for a Pass in short yardage. All 3 RB’s have shown ability in the passing game. Matter of fact the more they see the ball in the passing game, the better we’ve played overall. Take the short high probability 3-5 yard passes where you can draw interference and give our RBs more than just 300lb unblocked men to run through. YAC

As far as Receivers. While we’re currently without our best 2 producers from 2024, not all hope is lost. Romeo is on pace to match 2024 Reed. Reed should be back in about a month. Watson is Back and he was VERY close to a big play against the Eagles that would’ve changed the game dynamic imo. I listened to the game but after watching it, If he catches that ball GB scores there andthere its a TD on that drive. Too many drops last week.

Hopefully Golden missing time last week was more precaution and we’ll see him practice this week. Getting some sets with Golden and Watson opposite with Wicks underneath will hold the Safties pretty steady. If not expect to get punished in a few longer throws. GB has traveled better once they got young. It’s the first thing I noticed when Rodgers left. I think they come to play this week.

Is Reed on the IR Designated to return list? I didn't see his name there the last time I looked...

 

[Fossie]

Anyone want/need tickets to this game? I’m a Giants season ticket holder and can’t make it… the Stadium will be cheese heads anyway so I’m offering to you guys since none of our fans want to go anymore. 2 tix section 135, row 19. Pretty good seats right behind Packer bench.

908-797-4573 if interested, looking for 300 each

 

[OldSchool101]

Is Reed on the IR Designated to return list? I didn't see his name there the last time I looked...

I would assume so.

The list might be the initial list that started the season. Reed getting injured a couple weeks later might’ve not been edited?

 

[rmontro]

I kind of a agree. Surprisingly, we did not get called for a slew of holding penalties on the OL Monday. But the Giants are 31st in run defense. They have at least one good pass rusher. The Giants will key on the run. If we get them on their heels through the air Jacobs could bust a couple.

I was watching a video, can't remember who it was, but he said that the Giants have a better DL than we do. I don't follow the Giants (and it's not like they're all over the TV anyway), so I don't know if there's truth to that or not. That was about the only advantage over us he gave them though, so maybe there's something to it.

 

[milani]

I was watching a video, can't remember who it was, but he said that the Giants have a better DL than we do. I don't follow the Giants (and it's not like they're all over the TV anyway), so I don't know if there's truth to that or not. That was about the only advantage over us he gave them though, so maybe there's something to it.

They have a decent pass rush when healthy. But their run defense this season is 31st. In that sense we are similar.

 

[rmontro]

They have a decent pass rush when healthy. But their run defense this season is 31st. In that sense we are similar.

We're sixth in rushing yards per game, so not really that similar. We have better linebackers though.

 

[milani]

We're sixth in rushing yards per game, so not really that similar. We have better linebackers though.

Similar in terms of pass rush. There is a reason they have only a couple of wins, however.

 

[OldSchool101]

The Giants DL are well below GB in nearly every statistical category. Now obviously you should factor the opposing Offenses they’ve faced also. But several key categories they are either #31 or #32, #26 etc. Meanwhile our GB worst category is like #17.

According to ESPN win rates NY is
#14,#27 in run stop and pass rush win rates. The most important category is Points allowed. #27. Great DL rarely show up bottom 25% in Overall picture.

The Packers are
#13,#9 win rates.
#7 points allowed.


The Giants are #32 in Rushing yards allowed. So anyone can say that but this far it’s not showing up in wins or categorical rankings or points. Thats all we have to go by.

 

[milani]

The Giants DL are well below GB in nearly every statistical category. Now obviously you should factor the opposing Offenses they’ve faced also. But several key categories they are either #31 or #32, #26 etc. Meanwhile our GB worst category is like #17.

According to ESPN win rates NY is
#14,#27 in run stop and pass rush win rates. The most important category is Points allowed. #27. Great DL rarely show up bottom 25% in Overall picture.

The Packers are
#13,#9 win rates.
#7 points allowed.


The Giants are #32 in Rushing yards allowed. So anyone can say that but this far it’s not showing up in wins or categorical rankings or points. Thats all we have to go by.

We have to do damage on the ground. What we also must factor is that our OL is not as good as it was on Opening Day. And on passing downs those 3 wreckers on their DL will get pressure and force holding penalties and sacks. On the other side we have to get them out of the running game and go after Winston who will gunslinger. He has nothing to lose. We must win the TO battle. It may not be a pretty game but it is certainly winnable if we play % football and focus on down and distance.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Heath not travelling due to coach's decision? So wonder what he did because that just pretty much means suspension.