The Point of the Draft Picks

[tynimiller]

The draft class was considered to be especially deep and talented at wide receiver this year, therefore I'm quite sure it should have been possible to select one capable of having an immediate impact at the end of the first round. Especially considering that prospect could have entered the season #2 on the Packers depth chart.

You make a craft of strawmanning quotes from others and assuming their intentions of a post. Nothing you said in response to my quote contradicts what I stated. At #30 (or the spot we traded to) there was what I would personally call an above average shot at a walk in and be WR3 if not more by seasons' end.

 

[PikeBadger]

The draft class was considered to be especially deep and talented at wide receiver this year, therefore I'm quite sure it should have been possible to select one capable of having an immediate impact at the end of the first round.


It's mind-boggling that Rodgers is criticized for only throwing to receivers that know their assignments. Once again, he had no issue targeting Lazard 52 times over the past 11 games last season because he trusted him.

according to Gutekunst he didn’t think there was any WR’s left that would be able to make an immediate impact.

I didn’t criticize Rodgers, it is just the way he does things.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Haven't ignored it at all, it is what it is. How have the Bears taken advantage of the #2 pick in the 2017 draft rookie contract? How long do the really good QB's stay on their Rookie deals? Mahommes has played 3 and could be signing a deal worth $50M/year.

The Bears made a terrible decision to select Trubisky in the first place. While quarterbacks only play on their rookie deals for a maximum of four years teams have the opportunity to spend the cap space on other positions to upgrade the roster over that period. Worked out pretty well for the Chiefs and Mahomes last season.

Finally, you may have viewed it as a golden opportunity lost, to select Love, but is there actually a possibility that it turns out to be a golden opportunity won?

It's true that there's a possibility the Packers struck gold by selecting Love. It's unlikely in my opinion though.

This is incorrect. While the benefit wouldn't be full in 2022, the Packers can still recoup 22M in cap space, which is nothing to sneeze at, and they would still be able to get Love at a discount in 2024 on a 5th year option.

The Packers would still have $20 million of cap space allocated to the quarterback position in 2022 by moving on from Rodgers and have Love starting. The fifth year option for quarterbacks selected outside of the top 10 was over $15 million this year, that would hardly qualify as a bargain to retain Love for that cap hit in 2024.

Why do I get the feeling that some people think that finding Rodgers replacement only involves the following:

Outwit all the other teams by finding that QB that few thought would be great and thus passed over him in the draft.

It seems like Gutekunst is trying to do exactly that by selecting Love in this year's draft.

At #30 (or the spot we traded to) there was what I would personally call an above average shot at a walk in and be WR3 if not more by seasons' end.

Well, if that's true you agree it was a mistake to select a backup quarterback instead???

according to Gutekunst he didn’t think there was any WR’s left that would be able to make an immediate impact.

I consider that quote to be completely off base.

I didn’t criticize Rodgers, it is just the way he does things.

It's the way every other quarterback does things as well. Brady even mentioned it after signing with the Buccaneers.

 

[Dantés]

The Packers would still have $20 million of cap space allocated to the quarterback position in 2022 by moving on from Rodgers and have Love starting. The fifth year option for quarterbacks selected outside of the top 10 was over $15 million this year, that would hardly qualify as a bargain to retain Love for that cap hit in 2024.

Are you aware of what the going rate is for a good starter at QB?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It seems like Gutekunst is trying to do exactly that by selecting Love in this year's draft.

Right but you forgot about #1's , #3 and #6 in my list. I don't think Gute is expecting Love to take over in 2021. I also doubt Gute is fooling himself into thinking with 100% assurance that Love will be the next FHOF QB in Green Bay, but he saw what he felt was a decent chance at it and decided to make the move. (which were my other points).

Why do I get the feeling that some people think that finding Rodgers replacement only involves the following:

1. Know the exact year that Rodgers will be done.
2. Use one and only one pick exactly one year before that known date of Rodgers retirement.
3. Said pick will be ready to go his second year in the NFL.
4. No matter where that pick is in the draft, make sure you only select the next FHOF Packer QB.
5. Outwit all the other teams by finding that QB that few thought would be great and thus passed over him in the draft.
6. Until such time, use all other resources on the rest of the team, since Rodgers replacement will be an instant plug and play guy like we have seen the last 25+ years in Green Bay.

Also, if you are concerned that the Packers can no longer take advantage of having a QB on a rookie contract, read how that actually can start to happen in less than a year.

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay...e-could-come-sooner-than-you-think-147055106/

 

[PackAttack12]

I said less than some and more than others. Deficient at TE and the WR's beyond Adams were not inspiring. But Adams, Jones, and the offensive line were all plus pieces within the offense. If you're trying to say that the Packers were one of the least talented offenses in the NFC, then I would challenge you to back that up, because it's asinine.

Looking back at the draft, I totally believe it. Given what the offense needed/needs at WR-- a YAC threat-- it makes sense. Reagor was gone at #21, the 49ers traded up for Aiyuk. 7 more receivers went before #62. After Mims at #59, there was a 20 pick stretch where no one took a WR. After Duvernay went at pick #92, no one took a WR until pick #128, more than a full round.

You say that it would have been better to reach for a WR rather than take Love, but you and everyone else will change your tune if Love hits.

Simply a question. Apologies if this has been addressed, I got behind on this thread. Are you insinuating that if Reagor and/or Aiyuk was available, that Gutekunst wouldn't have traded up for Love? In other words, do you think he would have preferred Reagor or Aiyuk, or would he had preferred Love? To me, he was fixated on Love, regardless of how the WR board fell.

Perhaps in a few years it'll prove to be a slam dunk. But I'm a firm believer that he still would have traded up to nab Love. So Gute's claim of there was no one there to justify the pick, in my opinion, is misleading because I don't think he ever had the intention of upgrading WR in round 1.

A separate question. Do you feel as if he would have selected Either of the 7 WR's that went in round 2 over Dillon assuming a couple of them were left on the board at 62? I'm not so sure of that either.

I think that, stylistically, he and LaFleur did what they set out to do. Which is fine if that's what they believe was best for the Packers. But I'm just not buying into the narrative that Gute didn't pick a WR simply because the board fell unexpectedly. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Dantés]

Simply a question. Apologies if this has been addressed, I got behind on this thread. Are you insinuating that if Reagor and/or Aiyuk was available, that Gutekunst wouldn't have traded up for Love? In other words, do you think he would have preferred Reagor or Aiyuk, or would he had preferred Love? To me, he was fixated on Love, regardless of how the WR board fell.

Perhaps in a few years it'll prove to be a slam dunk. But I'm a firm believer that he still would have traded up to nab Love. So Gute's claim of there was no one there to justify the pick, in my opinion, is misleading because I don't think he ever had the intention of upgrading WR in round 1.

A separate question. Do you feel as if he would have selected Either of the 7 WR's that went in round 2 over Dillon assuming a couple of them were left on the board at 62? I'm not so sure of that either.

I think that, stylistically, he and LaFleur did what they set out to do. Which is fine if that's what they believe was best for the Packers. But I'm just not buying into the narrative that Gute didn't pick a WR simply because the board fell unexpectedly. Just my 2 cents.

There are conflicting rumors out there.

Some say that before the Niners traded up, Aiyuk and Love were the only players left that they felt good about in the first round, and that SF going up and getting Aiyuk triggered Gutekunst to make his move for Love.

Others say that Love was their top target regardless, and that that he was the goal of all the trade up scenarios they had worked.

Me? I have no clue. Either seems plausible.

As to Dillon, Gutekunst said after the draft that there were two WR's that he was trying to move up for, but he couldn't get a deal done without giving up a pick (one would assume, a good pick) in the 2021 draft, which he wasn't willing to do. So unless he's just bold-faced lying, then yes there were WR's in the 2nd round that would have been taken over Dillon.

Had a WR been the pick in the 2nd, then I assume RB would have still be addressed elsewhere.

 

[PackAttack12]

There are conflicting rumors out there.

Some say that before the Niners traded up, Aiyuk and Love were the only players left that they felt good about in the first round, and that SF going up and getting Aiyuk triggered Gutekunst to make his move for Love.

Others say that Love was their top target regardless, and that that he was the goal of all the trade up scenarios they had worked.

Me? I have no clue. Either seems plausible.

As to Dillon, Gutekunst said after the draft that there were two WR's that he was trying to move up for, but he couldn't get a deal done without giving up a pick (one would assume, a good pick) in the 2021 draft, which he wasn't willing to do. So unless he's just bold-faced lying, then yes there were WR's in the 2nd round that would have been taken over Dillon.

Had a WR been the pick in the 2nd, then I assume RB would have still be addressed elsewhere.

I just have a hard time believing that Aiyuk would have been the preferred choice if he would have fell. I don't believe that Gute prioritized WR very much in the first due to how enamored he was with Love. He would have preferred a 1st and a 4th for Love as opposed to standing pat and taking Aiyuk at 30. Of course, that's just my opinion and yours is a bit unclear.

In relation to Dillon, Gute mentioned more than once how shocked he was that Dillon was there at 62. Which leads me to believe that he was graded very comparatively to the WR's taken ahead of him.

Gute had a good opportunity to trade out of 30, pick up one of the 7 WR's he claimed to be targeting, while also picking up another asset. And still took Dillon at 62. And even if he couldn't take Dillon at 62, he would have had more ammo to move up in the 2nd again.

When Gute made the move for Love, he knew full well how limited he would be in the rest of the draft as far as his ability to be aggressive. And I'm sorry, but I'm just not buying this narrative that he valued the WR position in light of the moves he decided to make.

And finally...these are the things that we supposedly know. We know that the Packers liked some 1st round receivers. We know that the Packers liked Aiyuk. And we know that Gute mentioned he tried to trade up in the 2nd round to grab a receiver. All of these things are supposedly true, yet still and all at the conclusion of the draft, Gute says "we're very comfortable with our WR room".

I find it incredibly difficult to read all of that without it sounding wildly contradictory.

 

[Dantés]

I just have a hard time believing that Aiyuk would have been the preferred choice if he would have fell. I don't believe that Gute prioritized WR very much in the first due to how enamored he was with Love. He would have preferred a 1st and a 4th for Love as opposed to standing pat and taking Aiyuk at 30. Of course, that's just my opinion and yours is a bit unclear.

In relation to Dillon, Gute mentioned more than once how shocked he was that Dillon was there at 62. Which leads me to believe that he was graded very comparatively to the WR's taken ahead of him.

Gute had a good opportunity to trade out of 30, pick up one of the 7 WR's he claimed to be targeting, while also picking up another asset. And still took Dillon at 62. And even if he couldn't take Dillon at 62, he would have had more ammo to move up in the 2nd again.

When Gute made the move for Love, he knew full well how limited he would be in the rest of the draft as far as his ability to be aggressive. And I'm sorry, but I'm just not buying this narrative that he valued the WR position in light of the moves he decided to make.

And finally...these are the things that we supposedly know. We know that the Packers liked some 1st round receivers. We know that the Packers liked Aiyuk. And we know that Gute mentioned he tried to trade up in the 2nd round to grab a receiver. All of these things are supposedly true, yet still and all at the conclusion of the draft, Gute says "we're very comfortable with our WR room".

I find it incredibly difficult to read all of that without it sounding wildly contradictory.

One thing that might make a difference is that I don't consider any comment from any GM, before or after a draft, as being all that informative. I'm not saying they're always lying, but there's also no reason to believe that they're giving you their honest opinion.

I'm not asking you to buy anything. My point is just that all we can really do is build a narrative based on guess work. And there's more than one scenario that's plausible.

 

[PackAttack12]

So unless he's just bold-faced lying, then yes there were WR's in the 2nd round that would have been taken over Dillon.

I'm not saying they're always lying, but there's also no reason to believe that they're giving you their honest opinion.

just giving you a hard time. You're more level minded than most. We're just going to have to wait and see what all else is in the cards for the Packers.

I'll forgive Gute if he can add another veteran capable of producing before the season starts.

 

[Dantés]

just giving you a hard time. You're more level minded than most. We're just going to have to wait and see what all else is in the cards for the Packers.

I'll forgive Gute if he can add another veteran capable of producing before the season starts.

Lol.

I guess I believe him when he says he was trying to move up in the 2nd because it makes sense to me. But I won't ask you to believe me on that .

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One thing that might make a difference is that I don't consider any comment from any GM, before or after a draft, as being all that informative. I'm not saying they're always lying, but there's also no reason to believe that they're giving you their honest opinion.

I'm not asking you to buy anything. My point is just that all we can really do is build a narrative based on guess work. And there's more than one scenario that's plausible.

Totally agree. Are people really expecting Gute to say "Yeah, we didn't like Love at all, thought he was at best a 2nd or 3rd round grade, but you know, we felt ******** up the pick would at least be worth messing with Rodgers head".

Not to mention a GM isn't going to say "Not sure why we picked this guy, when we could have had THAT guy". Not exactly making much of a statement about the guy you picked or showing much confidence in your own ability to make the right decisions.

Finally, had we not picked Love and in 5 years he is well on his way to Canton for the New England Patriots, I can imagine the dialogue. "Gute was an absolute idiot for not picking Love, instead he picked a WR that barely played in the NFL". I don't need to say the type of fan that would be making those comments.

 

[Dantés]

Totally agree. Are people really expecting Gute to say "Yeah, we didn't like Love at all, thought he was at best a 2nd or 3rd round grade, but you know, we felt ******** up the pick would at least be worth messing with Rodgers head".

Not to mention a GM isn't going to say "Not sure why we picked this guy, when we could have had THAT guy". Not exactly making much of a statement about the guy you picked or the for your ability to make the right decisions.

Finally, had we not picked Love and in 5 years he is well on his way to Canton for the New England Patriots, I can imagine the dialogue. "Gute was an absolute idiot for not picking Love, instead he picked a WR that barely played in the NFL". I don't need to say the type of fan that would be making those comments.

And he really isn't going to say "We liked Dillon but wish someone else had been there" or "man, we sure don't like our wide receivers." That's just not done.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I think we will move on from Rodgers at the end of the year - eat the cap hit with a trade and let Love run the show. The rest of his contract will be a bargain if he pans out. My suspicion is that the front office is either done with Rodgers or they have conceded that our roster has too many holes to compete and are looking several years ahead.

 

[OldSchool101]

Only speaking for myself of course I think there are some people who speak in absolutes: "It was a horrendous pick" or "It was a great pick". Which if that is a reactionary statement and obviously an opinion, no harm really. Most of us recognize those as opinions in the early stage, but some try to back them up as cold hard facts and fail to recognize that no matter what side of the opinion you are on, with some things, you actually do have to wait a few years to be "right or wrong".

Funny. I swear I heard my wife say something like that in the in the Wee hours last night. I thought she might be dreaming until moments later, she seemingly pointed at me and hollered “WRONG!”

 

[Mondio]

I think we will move on from Rodgers at the end of the year - eat the cap hit with a trade and let Love run the show. The rest of his contract will be a bargain if he pans out. My suspicion is that the front office is either done with Rodgers or they have conceded that our roster has too many holes to compete and are looking several years ahead.

How do arrive at this conclusion? I mean Gute isn't new to the Packers, he's not new to Rodgers. Murphy isn't new to the Packers, he isn't new to Rodgers. they BOTH decided to commit to 30 million a year to our Quarterback knowing full well what he was as a man, a player, a leader, and whatever pain in the *** he might be. They knew well before hand.

They did it anyway. 80+ million paid up front. THEN after a year of a new coach and new system etc they didn't de-commit from him, they guaranteed 15 million MORE than they did initially which would make any premature severing of the ties hurt even more than it would have.

So why, after all that time and a year with the new coach and system would they do that? Just changed their minds? Couple that with the FA signings, the positionings with contracts etc, I hardly see how they're "done" with this QB and roster.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Are you aware of what the going rate is for a good starter at QB?

Well, Mahomes counted less than $4.5 million towards the cap last season.

While good quarterbacks make more than $15 million a season you can be sure that Love wouldn't be excited to play on the fifth year option in 2024 if he ends up being a decent starter.

Also, if you are concerned that the Packers can no longer take advantage of having a QB on a rookie contract, read how that actually can start to happen in less than a year.

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay...e-could-come-sooner-than-you-think-147055106/

You have to understand that the Packers can't take advantage of having a starting quarterback on a rookie deal if Rodgers would account for $30+ million in dead money counting against their cap.

My suspicion is that the front office is either done with Rodgers or they have conceded that our roster has too many holes to compete and are looking several years ahead.

That would be a stupid conclusion as the team was one win away from playing in the Super Bowl.

 

[Dantés]

Well, Mahomes counted less than $4.5 million towards the cap last season.

While good quarterbacks make more than $15 million a season you can be sure that Love wouldn't be excited to play on the fifth year option in 2024 if he ends up being a decent starter.

So... are you aware of what the going rate is for a quarterback?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You have to understand that the Packers can't take advantage of having a starting quarterback on a rookie deal if Rodgers would account for $30+ million in dead money counting against their cap.

If the Packers traded Rodgers at the end of this season, they take the dead cap hit of $31.556 M and are done with his contract forever. The total cap hit if you keep him would be $36.352 M. So that money you spend next year is a sunk cost no matter what team #12 is playing for. Trading him gets you some draft picks and clears his contract off the books in 2022 and beyond. You would then have what you crave, a "starting QB on a rookie deal" for 2 years and a 5th year option.

If trading Rodgers was Gutekunst's plan all along it didn't make any sense to first sign him to an extension with two years left on his deal in 2018 and on top of it restructuring his contract at the end of last season to add even more dead money to it in case he is traded.

This I agree on and I agreed on it at the time. Rodgers was coming of of 2 injury filled seasons and I would have preferred saving the money, while be 100% sure Rodgers was 100% back to form.

However, I think you are creating a straw man argument by saying "back in 2018 if trading him was Gutes intention all along......" I think its pretty obvious that the Packers had no intention of signing Rodgers and then changing their minds in less than 2 years on that. Things change though in 2 years time. You fire a head coach, maybe attitudes have changed, your new offense wants to depend less on the QB's arm, etc.

Gute still may have no intentions of trading Rodgers now, we could very well see 5+ more years of #12 in Green Bay. Much of that depends on Love. We are all just speculating on the decision. What is pretty clear to me though, Gute saw a QB available late in the first round, that he and the Packers were obviously very high on and felt that the value drafting Love exceeded the value of drafting anyone else available. Whether Love turns out to be the next starting QB in GB or not, he was viewed much like Rashan Gary was the year before, the best player available and a potential starter for years to come.

That's a gigantic IF in my opinion though.

Aren't most draft picks, especially outside the top 10, pretty big "IF's", especially QB's?

 

[GreenNGold_81]

How do arrive at this conclusion? I mean Gute isn't new to the Packers, he's not new to Rodgers. Murphy isn't new to the Packers, he isn't new to Rodgers. they BOTH decided to commit to 30 million a year to our Quarterback knowing full well what he was as a man, a player, a leader, and whatever pain in the *** he might be. They knew well before hand.

They did it anyway. 80+ million paid up front. THEN after a year of a new coach and new system etc they didn't de-commit from him, they guaranteed 15 million MORE than they did initially which would make any premature severing of the ties hurt even more than it would have.

So why, after all that time and a year with the new coach and system would they do that? Just changed their minds? Couple that with the FA signings, the positionings with contracts etc, I hardly see how they're "done" with this QB and roster.

We're left with trying to make sense of the Love draft pick. I'm throwing my opinion into the ring. Rodgers will only lose trade value as he gets older. At the time of his new contract it was an obvious move for the front office to re-commit to the future hall of famer. As if they wanted that headache of moving on without a suitable replacement on the roster. Now they do have a contingency plan with a league that knows that a rookie contract for a QB helps with the cap. Love sits to learn under Rodgers this year like Mahomes did under Smith. We trade Rodgers to an afc team (Pats, Vegas, Colts if Rivers retires, etc) and let Love take over. Again, why else does it make sense to take a QB in the first if we aren't moving on from Arod? There has to be something we don't know... Maybe Gute is just tired of him and knows that most of these HOF qbs linger for several more years past their prime and wants that (though brief) cap relief and he's in love with Love's upside.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The article below does a pretty good job of breaking down all of the options that the Packers have in regards to trading Rodgers. Obviously, that never happens if Love doesn't prove himself capable of being a starer in the NFL.

I'm not going to pretend to know the Packers plans, but that is why we are all here, to discuss our opinions. So in the case of Rodgers, my opinion is that by drafting Love, the Packers opened up more options for themselves at QB, than they had prior to the draft. Given how important the QB position is, along with Rodgers age and I am fine with that. Rodgers future in Green Bay is dependent a lot on Love and of course on Rodgers himself.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...pacts-and-deadlines-in-aaron-rodgers-contract

 

[Mondio]

We're left with trying to make sense of the Love draft pick. I'm throwing my opinion into the ring. Rodgers will only lose trade value as he gets older. At the time of his new contract it was an obvious move for the front office to re-commit to the future hall of famer. As if they wanted that headache of moving on without a suitable replacement on the roster. Now they do have a contingency plan with a league that knows that a rookie contract for a QB helps with the cap. Love sits to learn under Rodgers this year like Mahomes did under Smith. We trade Rodgers to an afc team (Pats, Vegas, Colts if Rivers retires, etc) and let Love take over. Again, why else does it make sense to take a QB in the first if we aren't moving on from Arod? There has to be something we don't know... Maybe Gute is just tired of him and knows that most of these HOF qbs linger for several more years past their prime and wants that (though brief) cap relief and he's in love with Love's upside.

so, a year after basically giving 100 million dollars guaranteed, you think they've decided they've had enough of Rodgers and want to move on? and a year removed from bringing in 4 high profile FA's with pretty big contracts and being 1 game away from playing in the Super bowl, they've decided this roster is one they should move away from starting now?

I happen to think it's much more likely they saw someone they thought would be really good, had an opportunity to get him and they did for no other reason than they think he's going to be really good at the most important position on the field. It does give them options in the future now looking 2,3 years down the road. Options for the many variables that will make it look like a good pick, or that wont' happen and it will look like a wasted pick and that's regardless of how good he is.

I don't think they picked a QB because they're sick of Rodgers. I don't think they would have picked any of the other QB's had they been available outside of Burrows. and Still, when Rodgers is pretty much 40, I think Love is going to be the same age then as Burrows is now.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I happen to think it's much more likely they saw someone they thought would be really good, had an opportunity to get him and they did for no other reason than they think he's going to be really good at the most important position on the field. It does give them options in the future now looking 2,3 years down the road.

This is basically what I believe as well. After reading more on how trading Rodgers next year is also quite possible and potentially beneficial, I would add that in as another option that the Packers have afforded themselves with Love.

Tim Boyle was obviously not viewed as a future starter and with Rodgers nearing the end of his career, the Packers definitely could benefit by having a contingency plan (Love) in place, earlier than many of us expected. The best case scenario, in 4 years Rodgers is still playing like a FHOF QB and wants to keep going and Love looks like the real deal. That will put the Packers in quite a dilemma, a good one.

 

[OldSchool101]

Once again myself and many in here probably would’ve waited 1-2 years at QB. But our hopes and aspirations are all just water under the bridge now.
Where we do benefit is in dramatically increasing our odds in a contingency situation all the while giving Love time to develop. While many 1st year starting QBs are pushed into starting duty day 1, Love has the luxury of learning the ropes in a Masters Class of QB schools.

In the meantime, does anyone think we will consider using Love selectively as a utility player, similar to how the Saints have supplemented Brees now that he’s in his twilight tears? I say that because Love is pretty athletic and he’s been effective scrambling.

I could see us using a more versatile athlete in Love under Center as a speed change up, it also corresponds with how we seem to be leaning drafting better run blockers, along with a 250lb. halfback. That would also appease a disgruntled fan base who hadn’t considered they may use him in certain packages, starting later this season. It’s not something we’re accustomed to in GB, but thats exactly the point.. neither is our opponent.

 

[GleefulGary]

Love isn't a running QB, he's just a mobile one. Similar to Rodgers when he was young.