The Point of the Draft Picks

[Heyjoe4]

According to Gutekunst, the issue was whether a rookie WR would be of much help now, not whether they were worth the pick. It's often commented upon in these pages, given how obvious it is, that rookie WRs, no matter where they are drafted, often don't contribute much in their first year. First year breakouts are the exception.

Of course a developmental back-up QB, who may in fact be #3 on the depth chart to start out, doesn't do much for now either. It might be worth observing that with another Adams injury, having that rookie WR, however much he's still getting his feet wet, might provide something toward winning whereas if Boyle or Love have to take the reins you can pretty much write off the season.

This had nothing to do with the now, that should be obvious.

Gutekunst said the WRs he would have considered at that first round slot were off the board. That would have been Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson and/or Aiyuk, who were off the board between #12 and #25, in the vicinity of where they were expected to go, some a little lower, some a little higher.

And yet, the day before the draft it was reported that Gutekunst was making calls looking for a trade up in the first round, a report that turned out to be accurate. Which is more plausible? Working on a contingency if a WR of choice happened to fall? Or was it love for Love? GM mind-sets do not involve flipping coins.

There were no vitual interviews with those receivers, only Mimms. There was with Love, and Gutekunst stated after the fact there was more than one. He's been talking about drafting a QB for the last couple of years, the implication being it would not be a late rounder. He wanted to set up on-sites with a couple of Day 1 - 2 QB prospects in 2019, one accepted and the other declined. He's been on the hunt for that upper round talent for two years.

Maybe, just maybe, if one of these receivers was graded highest and potentially an immediate contributor, and inexplicably dropped, then maybe he takes him. I believe, and the evidence suggests, Gutekunst was predisposed to taking a QB, and not just a QB, but this QB, and the pre-draft contingent trades were predicated on that.

Yeah I think Gluten came into the draft pretty hell-bent on getting Love. Was that the right call? Could he have waited until #30? Who knows.

I hope Love progresses fast enough to start the season as the #2 backup. If Gluten is right about Love, and MLF can work his QB magic with Love, that’s not a stretch. So best case is we finally get a back up that can keep us at .500 if #12 gets hurt. Worst case, Love doesn’t advance in camp, becomes the #3 backup, and we have to carry 3 QBs because Love would never clear waivers to the PS.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yeah I think Gluten came into the draft pretty hell-bent on getting Love. Was that the right call? Could he have waited until #30? Who knows.

I believe it will prove to be the wrong call regardless of the draft position. And I'm the guy who keeps reminding everybody that you can't just live for today. You have to keep an eye on the following year's cap and free agency status to not go down a blind alley. This pick skipped right over 2021 to 2023.

Even then, what are you likely to get with 3 more seasons in the rear view mirror? It just as plausible to believe that Love ends up being Blake Bortles, the Zierlein comparable to take one example, as anything better. We're not talking about a spotless prospect like an Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow inexplicably falling in your lap.

 

[HardRightEdge]

What's my positivity per message posted rating?

As regards this draft, pretty high I'd say.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I believe it will prove to be the wrong call regardless of the draft position. And I'm the guy who keeps reminding everybody that you can't just live for today. You have to keep an eye on the following year's cap and free agency status to not go down a blind alley. This pick skipped right over 2021 to 2023.

Even then, what are you likely to get with 3 more seasons in the rear view mirror? It just as plausible to believe that Love ends up being Blake Bortles, the Zierlein comparable to take one example, as anything better. We're not talking about a spotless prospect like an Andrew Luck or Joe Burrow inexplicably falling in your lap.

Yeah and why if Love pans out? By the time his rookie contract is up, it will cost a fortune to keep him. Bad pick at the wrong time.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yeah and why if Love pans out? By the time his rookie contract is up, it will cost a fortune to keep him. Bad pick at the wrong time.

Well, there is that Garoppolo scenario where he has to play in relief sometime in the next three seasons and plays well and wins games, with winning being the most critical statistic, while Rodgers keeps trucking along. Then you have a decision to make. If you keep Love and ditch Rodgers, it's just one big contract out and a new one in. Of course you hope those few wins were not just a momentary triumph of the uncluttered mind.

A preponderance of first round QBs fail. NFL benches are littered with them, the ones that are not selling insurance that is. It doesn't take much looking around to see how many true franchise QBs there actually are, and most of those guys are getting pretty old, which just goes to show how infrequently they come along. They're awfully rare, and that's not saying anything anybody doesn't already know.

 

[HardRightEdge]

...and MLF can work his QB magic with Love...

What magic is that exactly?

 

[757Niner]

According to Gutekunst, the issue was whether a rookie WR would be of much help now, not whether they were worth the pick. It's often commented upon in these pages, given how obvious it is, that rookie WRs, no matter where they are drafted, often don't contribute much in their first year. First year breakouts are the exception.

I find much fault with this line of thinking. History has shown us that rookie WRs can and will contribute right away. Hell, look no further than last year's draft class. Off the top of my head...

AJ Brown
Terry Maclurin
DK Metcalf
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Dionate Johnson

All of those rookies made immediate impacts. Three of those rookies were defacto WR1 on playoff teams if you look at their numbers the last month of the regular season and playoffs. Maclaurin and Slayton get absolutely no love because they played on bad teams. And who knows how good Johnson would have been had he not been playing with 2nd and 3rd string QBs for most of the season.

Point is, there are plenty of examples throughout draft history of first year WRs having a impact on their team's success. So that excuse simply isn't good enough.

If Gute liked Love more than any other WR on his board at the time that's fine...

BUT we should all know by now that BPA available is a huge myth. NO TEAM simply drafts according to the best talent on the board. We'd have a bunch of interior O-Lineman and LBs going late in the first and early in the second every draft.

Some positions are coveted more than others and some teams emphasize talent differently. One GM might put a less talanted skill position player over a more talented player at a non-skill position. EVERY team skews their board to align with team needs....and don't let them tell you different.

But this fallacy that you don't draft a WR high because they rarely contribute immediately just doesn't hold water. Like I said, if Gute felt Love was the best prospect on his board and he wanted to make sure he got him, that's on him. He'll have to live and die with that eval. But justifying it with this whole 'rookie WR production theory' just makes him look like his scrambling, trying to justify ignoring what appeared to be a decent size hole in your roster.

 

[tynimiller]

I find much fault with this line of thinking. History has shown us that rookie WRs can and will contribute right away. Hell, look no further than last year's draft class. Off the top of my head...

AJ Brown
Terry Maclurin
DK Metcalf
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Dionate Johnson

All of those rookies made immediate impacts. Three of those rookies were defacto WR1 on playoff teams if you look at their numbers the last month of the regular season and playoffs. Maclaurin and Slayton get absolutely no love because they played on bad teams. And who knows how good Johnson would have been had he not been playing with 2nd and 3rd string QBs for most of the season.

Point is, there are plenty of examples throughout draft history of first year WRs having a impact on their team's success. So that excuse simply isn't good enough.

If Gute liked Love more than any other WR on his board at the time that's fine...

BUT we should all know by now that BPA available is a huge myth. NO TEAM simply drafts according to the best talent on the board. We'd have a bunch of interior O-Lineman and LBs going late in the first and early in the second every draft.

Some positions are coveted more than others and some teams emphasize talent differently. One GM might put a less talanted skill position player over a more talented player at a non-skill position. EVERY team skews their board to align with team needs....and don't let them tell you different.

But this fallacy that you don't draft a WR high because they rarely contribute immediately just doesn't hold water. Like I said, if Gute felt Love was the best prospect on his board and he wanted to make sure he got him, that's on him. He'll have to live and die with that eval. But justifying it with this whole 'rookie WR production theory' just makes him look like his scrambling, trying to justify ignoring what appeared to be a decent size hole in your roster.

I was for a WR in the draft. I understand rookies can and do make a difference some years...but let's be honest every year you have a mere handful of rookie WRs that truly make a sizable impact -some years as little as 2 or 3 and other years we flirt with a dozen.

Let's not lie to ourselves that those few listed make it a hard and fast rule. As much as I wanted Pittman, or even Mims or Claypool there is nothing which guaranteed they would be able to come in and in year one be out #2.

 

[757Niner]

I was for a WR in the draft. I understand rookies can and do make a difference some years...but let's be honest every year you have a mere handful of rookie WRs that truly make a sizable impact -some years as little as 2 or 3 and other years we flirt with a dozen.

Let's not lie to ourselves that those few listed make it a hard and fast rule. As much as I wanted Pittman, or even Mims or Claypool there is nothing which guaranteed they would be able to come in and in year one be out #2.

Oh, by no means am I saying drafting a rookie WR would have guaranteed immediate production from said draft pick. Never deal in absolutes when it comes to the draft.

BUT that's exactly why you CAN'T say you won't draft a WR either. Because you can't say for fact that a rookie WR won't be as impactful based on history.

In a worst case a scenario, any WR you would have drafted@30 is going affect the outcome of games in 2020 more than your 2nd string rookie QB, who will rarely if at all, see the field.

But I get it. Love is looked at as a bridge to the future, at the most important position in football. So there's a different lens we have to view it.

I'm simply saying that dealing in absolutes doesn't work for rationalizing moves during the draft. There are always outliners....for AND against.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Oh, by no means am I saying drafting a rookie WR would have guaranteed immediate production from said draft pick. Never deal in absolutes when it comes to the draft.

BUT that's exactly why you CAN'T say you won't draft a WR either. Because you can't say for fact that a rookie WR won't be as impactful based on history.

In a worst case a scenario, any WR you would have drafted@30 is going affect the outcome of games in 2020 more than your 2nd string rookie QB, who will rarely if at all, see the field.

But I get it. Love is looked at as a bridge to the future, at the most important position in football. So there's a different lens we have to view it.

I'm simply saying that dealing in absolutes doesn't work for rationalizing moves during the draft. There are always outliners....for AND against.

Both you and Ty make excellent and really complimentary arguments. I agree with both of you.

Personally I wanted Tee Higgins at #30. That’s arguable. What I don’t think is arguable is that the majority of contributors here would have been elated with a WR at #30 (Higgins was selected with the first pick in the 2d round, for what that’s worth), or ILB Queen.

I think the reality is what 75 implies - that come hell or high water Gluten wanted Love in rd 1, NOT a WR (or other position of need like ILB or OT).

As is always the case, history will be the judge of this draft. And in closing, I reinforce 75’s point about BPA. No team picks BPA unless it coincides with need. In other words, need almost always trumps BPA. Just my opinion.

At any rate you have both made excellent and thought provoking points, so thanks!

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Who is giving up on Rodgers for the next 2 or 3 years? The Packers made a hefty commitment to him via a contract. This is a business and the Packers are taking their first swing at finding his eventual replacement. If Love works out, great, if he doesn't, they take another swing in a few years. Too many people are making this about Aaron Rodgers. I love #12, but if #10 beats him out, that would be awesome!

What I find ironic are people saying Love isn't any good and in the same breath say "its too early to replace Rodgers". So I have to ask 2 questions. First, how do you know Love isn't any good? Second, if you are right and he isn't any good, how will he replace Rodgers?

People need to look at the history of the NFL draft and realize that no matter who the Packers selected at #30 or #26, there are no guarantees, whether its a QB or a DB you are drafting.

The Packers just used a first round pick on a guy that is absolutely not going to help Rodgers in the slightest. They then drafted a RB in a round that shouldn't see RBs drafted (personal opinion and historical trend), and then drafted their version of Kyle Juszcyk in the third round for some reason; keeping in mind that Kyle's BEST season saw him him catch 30 passes for 324 yards, so I'm not sure why everyone thinks he's super valuable.

Yeah, the Packers have begun to move on from Rodgers. I get why some fans prefer to believe every fairy tale the front office tells, but actions speak much louder than words.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Packers just used a first round pick on a guy that is absolutely not going to help Rodgers in the slightest. They then drafted a RB in a round that shouldn't see RBs drafted (personal opinion and historical trend), and then drafted their version of Kyle Juszcyk in the third round for some reason; keeping in mind that Kyle's BEST season saw him him catch 30 passes for 324 yards, so I'm not sure why everyone thinks he's super valuable.

Yeah, the Packers have begun to move on from Rodgers. I get why some fans prefer to believe every fairy tale the front office tells, but actions speak much louder than words.

Yeah we aren’t going to know if Love was a good pick or not for a while, like 2-3 years. For me, the bigger point is that it seems Gluten came into this draft bound and determined to get Love. Sorry Gluten but I wanted a WR (Tee Higgins was available and taken seven picks later so they could have had him at #30 and kept the 4th rounder) or an ILB (Queen was available at #26).

So this draft, with the exception of Dillon, is a mystery to me. Kind of like the rest of us I imagine.

And that schedule! Whew looks pretty tough to me. Count me as sick of playing the Niners.

I did like the Dillon pick though. He provides depth behind Jones, he’s strong, he’s fast - and IF he produces, as he should, it’s good insurance against Jones demanding $15 mil/year in 2021.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Yeah we aren’t going to know if Love was a good pick or not for a while, like 2-3 years. For me, the bigger point is that it seems Gluten came into this draft bound and determined to get Love. Sorry Gluten but I wanted a WR (Tee Higgins was available and taken seven picks later 0 so they could have had him at #30 and kept the 4th rounder) or an ILB (Queen was available at #26).

So this draft, with the exception of Dillon, is a mystery to me. Kind of like the rest of us.

The reasoning behind the "why" is the mystery. The actual draft isn't a mystery, they want an offense like the Titans ran last year. They drafted bigger, less athletic olinemen that are potentially better at mauling guys in the run game than the current group the Packers have, who are more athletic, less rough, and better pass blockers and they wanted a giant, ground'n'pound RB. The real mystery is why they want an offense that was designed to protect a developing QB when they have a very good, veteran QB.

 

[PikeBadger]

I find much fault with this line of thinking. History has shown us that rookie WRs can and will contribute right away. Hell, look no further than last year's draft class. Off the top of my head...

AJ Brown
Terry Maclurin
DK Metcalf
Deebo Samuel
Darius Slayton
Dionate Johnson

All of those rookies made immediate impacts. Three of those rookies were defacto WR1 on playoff teams if you look at their numbers the last month of the regular season and playoffs. Maclaurin and Slayton get absolutely no love because they played on bad teams. And who knows how good Johnson would have been had he not been playing with 2nd and 3rd string QBs for most of the season.

Point is, there are plenty of examples throughout draft history of first year WRs having a impact on their team's success. So that excuse simply isn't good enough.

If Gute liked Love more than any other WR on his board at the time that's fine...

BUT we should all know by now that BPA available is a huge myth. NO TEAM simply drafts according to the best talent on the board. We'd have a bunch of interior O-Lineman and LBs going late in the first and early in the second every draft.

Some positions are coveted more than others and some teams emphasize talent differently. One GM might put a less talanted skill position player over a more talented player at a non-skill position. EVERY team skews their board to align with team needs....and don't let them tell you different.

But this fallacy that you don't draft a WR high because they rarely contribute immediately just doesn't hold water. Like I said, if Gute felt Love was the best prospect on his board and he wanted to make sure he got him, that's on him. He'll have to live and die with that eval. But justifying it with this whole 'rookie WR production theory' just makes him look like his scrambling, trying to justify ignoring what appeared to be a decent size hole in your roster.

Not every team has Aaron Rodgers as QB though, who only throws to receivers that are where he expects them to be regardless of what round they were drafted in. That trust relationship as proven to take a while in the past.
Thompson has to live with his evaluation of Rodgers as well. We had a roster with holes at that time as well that needed addressing. Rodgers wasn’t ready to be a starting QB his first two years in the league as well.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The reasoning behind the "why" is the mystery. The actual draft isn't a mystery, they want an offense like the Titans ran last year. They drafted bigger, less athletic olinemen that are potentially better at mauling guys in the run game than the current group the Packers have, who are more athletic, less rough, and better pass blockers and they wanted a giant, ground'n'pound RB. The real mystery is why they want an offense that was designed to protect a developing QB when they have a very good, veteran QB.

Good points. Well, if they want an offense that’s run-heavy (actually there’s no “if), they have the ammunition. They can use RPO and jet sweep off that, and that should make Rodgers’ job easier. I expect to see more short-range passes over the LBs and in front of the safeties. Sounds a lot like Bill Walsh’s West-Coast offense. So maybe this works.

But the Love pick, IMO, was wasted, a wasted opportunity to get an ILB or WR in rd 1 (they still could have picked Dillon at #62). Time will tell if this works, but it’s very dependent on a lot more production from all WRs, not just Adams and Lazard.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah, the Packers have begun to move on from Rodgers. I get why some fans prefer to believe every fairy tale the front office tells, but actions speak much louder than words.

I was strictly talking about Love and not the rest of the draft. I don't view Love as "giving up on Rodgers", I viewed it as potentially selecting his eventual predecessor. While we all want to think #12 can play for another 5 or more years, I am not so sure the Packers believe that. At some point in time, the smart team finds his replacement and I think Love was possibly the first attempt and hopefully the only attempt to do so. If he works out and is a future star, I am fine with seeing Rodgers career end in GB a year or 2 early, its Business.

 

[gopkrs]

I agreed Pokerbrat, but I wish you would not have put in that last sentence. Just want to watch it play out.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I was strictly talking about Love and not the rest of the draft. I don't view Love as "giving up on Rodgers", I viewed selecting his eventual predecessor. While we all want to think #12 can play for another 5 or more years, I am not so sure the Packers believe that. At some point in time, the smart team finds his replacement and I think Love was possibly the first attempt and hopefully the only attempt to do so. If he works out and is a future star, I am fine with seeing Rodgers career end in GB a year or 2 early, its Business.[/QUO

What magic is that exactly?

Specifically, his work with the Falcon’s Ryan during his MVP year, and other years he worked with Ryan. He is a good QB coach. Maybe “magic” was too strong a word.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I was strictly talking about Love and not the rest of the draft. I don't view Love as "giving up on Rodgers", I viewed it as potentially selecting his eventual predecessor. While we all want to think #12 can play for another 5 or more years, I am not so sure the Packers believe that. At some point in time, the smart team finds his replacement and I think Love was possibly the first attempt and hopefully the only attempt to do so. If he works out and is a future star, I am fine with seeing Rodgers career end in GB a year or 2 early, its Business.

Agreed. The Love acquisition doesn’t signal giving up on Rodgers, far from it. In the best light, the pick was to build for the future. That’s a decision Gluten gets to make. It will work, or it won’t.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I was strictly talking about Love and not the rest of the draft. I don't view Love as "giving up on Rodgers", I viewed it as potentially selecting his eventual predecessor. While we all want to think #12 can play for another 5 or more years, I am not so sure the Packers believe that. At some point in time, the smart team finds his replacement and I think Love was possibly the first attempt and hopefully the only attempt to do so. If he works out and is a future star, I am fine with seeing Rodgers career end in GB a year or 2 early, its Business.

First round draft picks are the most powerful tool GMs have to improve a team. Using one on a guy that will ever help Rodgers is kind of moving on.

And I understand that it's business. I just think not maximizing the current window is not the best strategy and I don't think Love is a generational talent that only comes around in every 5+ drafts.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Maybe they like Love because they can actually mould him to throw to the middle of the field for once?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I was for a WR in the draft. I understand rookies can and do make a difference some years...but let's be honest every year you have a mere handful of rookie WRs that truly make a sizable impact -some years as little as 2 or 3 and other years we flirt with a dozen.

The draft class was considered to be especially deep and talented at wide receiver this year, therefore I'm quite sure it should have been possible to select one capable of having an immediate impact at the end of the first round. Especially considering that prospect could have entered the season #2 on the Packers depth chart.

In other words, need almost always trumps BPA.

I prefer to use the term best value available with positions of need definitely factoring into a decision.

Not every team has Aaron Rodgers as QB though, who only throws to receivers that are where he expects them to be regardless of what round they were drafted in. That trust relationship as proven to take a while in the past.

It's mind-boggling that Rodgers is criticized for only throwing to receivers that know their assignments. Once again, he had no issue targeting Lazard 52 times over the past 11 games last season because he trusted him.

Thompson has to live with his evaluation of Rodgers as well. We had a roster with holes at that time as well that needed addressing. Rodgers wasn’t ready to be a starting QB his first two years in the league as well.

First of all Rodgers was considered to be a possible #1 overall pick that dropped for whatever reason. In addition teams didn't have a huge advantage of having a quarterback still on his rookie deal back then.

Unfortunately that's not true with Love this time around though.

At some point in time, the smart team finds his replacement and I think Love was possibly the first attempt and hopefully the only attempt to do so. If he works out and is a future star, I am fine with seeing Rodgers career end in GB a year or 2 early, its Business.

You continue to ignore that by selecting Love at this point the Packers won't be able to take advantage of having a starting quarterback on his rookie deal aside of a single year in 2023. If he doesn't work out they missed a golden opportunity to surround Rodgers with more talent with his championship window closing fast.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You continue to ignore that by selecting Love at this point the Packers won't be able to take advantage of having a starting quarterback on his rookie deal aside of a single year in 2023. If he doesn't work out they missed a golden opportunity to surround Rodgers with more talent with his championship window closing fast.

Haven't ignored it at all, it is what it is. How have the Bears taken advantage of the #2 pick in the 2017 draft rookie contract? How long do the really good QB's stay on their Rookie deals? Mahommes has played 3 and could be signing a deal worth $50M/year.

I get that your optimistic scenario is one like we have seen a few teams have, Super Bowl Team with a QB on a rookie contract. However, for all those other teams that are struggling with a young QB, picked high in the draft, they will continue to hope that at some point they have a great QB, on a rookie deal or not.

Finally, you may have viewed it as a golden opportunity lost, to select Love, but is there actually a possibility that it turns out to be a golden opportunity won?

 

[Dantés]

You continue to ignore that by selecting Love at this point the Packers won't be able to take advantage of having a starting quarterback on his rookie deal aside of a single year in 2023. If he doesn't work out they missed a golden opportunity to surround Rodgers with more talent with his championship window closing fast.

This is incorrect. While the benefit wouldn't be full in 2022, the Packers can still recoup 22M in cap space, which is nothing to sneeze at, and they would still be able to get Love at a discount in 2024 on a 5th year option.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Why do I get the feeling that some people think that finding Rodgers replacement only involves the following:

1. Know the exact year that Rodgers will be done.
2. Use one and only one pick exactly one year before that known date of Rodgers retirement.
3. Said pick will be ready to go his second year in the NFL.
4. No matter where that pick is in the draft, make sure you only select the next FHOF Packer QB.
5. Outwit all the other teams by finding that QB that few thought would be great and thus passed over him in the draft.
6. Until such time, use all other resources on the rest of the team, since Rodgers replacement will be an instant plug and play guy like we have seen the last 25+ years in Green Bay.