Tyni's February Mock Draft

tynimiller

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Alright, life has been hectic and I do get a feel this draft cycle I'm going to have far less time spent on prospects than I have the last couple year BUT I am still a draft process nerd through and through and spend WAY WAY too much time watching film, reading about players and tapping into my contacts from the days I was trying hard to get into that world. As a few folks here have attacked me for "just throwing a ton of darts" many have noticed I post far less mock drafts as a chance to discuss prospects but will likely do about four between now and the draft. I'll also, unlike many of the ones that have came at me, post again where my top 100 and hopefully even top 150 washes out at - this way it isn't ever hindsight which builds my case for future complaining or disagreement like so many do. I encourage anyone to do the same - I'll post that 2026 Top 100 Prospect List likely the week or so before the draft, add yours - it is a lot of fun to look back and see how you did grading out guys.

Okay, as always I like to outline a scenario I see as likely as to set a baseline for what Gute and Co know going into the draft.

Let's assume these things do hapen: Jenkins released/cut, Banks cut/released and Rashan Gary restructured to some degree.

I'll pause and touch on Gary, purely put Gary didn't live up to expectations last year - cannot be denied. He also however, helped handle a storm we didn't of course see or want coming when Parsons went down. Gary continued to play solid however it is clear that juice he had prior to that injury in our rearview mirror is gone. Parsons injury and likely departure of Enagbare both I think save Gary from a likely cut or Preston Smith type departure trade. Now, while the possibility of trading him isn't completely out the window I am thinking we restructure him to some degree and 2026 is his final year here unless a dramatic pay cut is agreed to forward or his play ressurects itself.

Predict these things happen: Wyatt and Kraft extensions happen prior to or in house they know they're going to happen...UFAs we resign Rhyan (roughly $20M/3Yr deal), FitzPatrick, Niemann and RFAs Cox and Kinnard for sure. Others likely might but I predict sadly Doubs, Rasheed Walker, Quay and Enagbare all leave. ERFAs Bo Melton, Kamal Hadden, Donovan Jennings and Lecitus Smith all would be retained - with Jennings again being a guy the staff is saying shows promise.

FA signings are too tough to hone in on specific guys but I could see us leave our size typicals we tend to follow in the draft and consider Flott from the Giants...or a similar type guy at CB and then a veteran DL that is on the back end of their career that can provide stability but also not squelch any young growth either too much. In truth though I don't like the CB UFAs, I'd hold serve there till after draft and focus on an iDL that is towards the end of their career that has one or two good years left to add.


Okay, that all said let's enter the draft - and I'll remind folks, for convenience yes I use an "engine" typically but I avoid guys that I struggle to think realistically will be there. As an example Christen Miller is still showing up in some engines at 52...I think that is absolutely absurd. I stick to my rankings mostly, but the consensus board historically has seemed to be one of the more "right than wrong" types as well.

2.52 - Lee Hunter and Christen are gone or I'd quickly write that down and not hesitate (and FTR they should be gone). The four highest guys left on my board in positions of "need or would help most" are Chris Johnson CB, Jake Golday LB, Max Iheanachor RT and Joshua Josephs EDGE. But the highest guy on my board is actually Jadarian Price RB. Price is awesome, big fan, big but fast back and it is TOUGH to not nab him being an Irish fan, but I just don't see it as best use and value positionally at all. Also based on board availability I get calls from the Bears (likely eyeing one of the DL or LB on board given their needs), Dolphins/Hafley call trying to push their first year hard...in the end the board is not loading the way I like persay for a value here and I see immense value sliding the 5 spots back from Chicago and reloading an additional pick in a limited pick year for us - we trade 2.52 and 2027 R7 to Chicago and receive back 2.57 | 4.129 | 2027 R5 Just see more value in having 2.57 and 4.129 making the team better than any of the players listed would/should.

2.57 - Golday goes to Chicago as kind of expected and Chris Johnson is gone as well. Still there is Joshua Josephs as well as Max Iheanachor but other high on my board are Kamari Ramsey S (too redundant with Williams and Bullard and Hobbs), Domonique Orange is the highest DL on my board but is currently at 71 overall, D'Angelo Ponds is there too...which for the record Ponds is an incredible ball hawk and receiver mirror, however there is size outliers and then there is SIZE outliers...Ponds is for sure that and in truth may have some of the best ball skills and coverage ability just in being there, issue is literally the QB can put it higher than he can reach it and for some of the bigger receivers we aren't even talking about having to jump crazy high for it to do this...to me Ponds may be the craziest risky physical outlier we have in this draft and some past (Forbes rail thin frame comes to mind as one from the past). I've seen many I trust say his true measurements are closer to 5'8" and only 29 inch arms.

Too risky...so I choose to write down my highest rated guy at a position of need, but one I didn't see us likely grabbing with our first pick - edge. Derrick Moore EDGE out of Michigan is the pick. Moore has been productive for years in the Big Ten and held down the last three for Michigan being one of their best defenders on that side of the ball. 22.5 TFLs over those three years, 19 sacks over that time and a crazy knack for PDs providing 7. He has a pass rush win rate of 19.8% which is phenemonal but sets a great edge and has proven to be solid against the run. Moore makes the future of Gary a lock that 2026 is his last, and likely causes some buzz with some that Gary might still be moved during the draft or before deadline (which he might). Few measurements... 6035 | 254 lbs | 34.25 arms and 9.25 hands (senior bowl measurements)

3.84 - Armed with that extra fourth Gute likely started eyeing potential trades arond 74 or so if the prospect is right - and I did actually attempt on one. I tried to target Darrell Jackson Jr DL from FSU by trading up with the Colts (3.78) and the Falcons (3.79) but they wanted too much and we watch Jackson Jr go to Baltimore with the 80th pick. This is also an example of a moment where a GM likely goes "****, if I'd have known" - Dani Dennis-Sutton a guy that in my opinion has ZERO reasons to be there at this pick and I assumed wouldn't have been would have changed my pick 57 entirely knowing. Value for Dennis-Sutton here is tremendous and I'd be lying if I didn't think about picking him, trading Gary for any Day3 pick I can get clean and be done...but I don't feel that is proper roster management so fight the thought.

Blake Miller the tackle out of clemson is my highest ranked OL there and he has shown the versatility to play both sides and his frame could really likely be trained anywhere inside too (meaning guards) - Blake however at least according to consensus board is a guy I'm very low on so we will predict he isn't an option (they have him at 39). That puts Brian Parker T BYU, Sam Hecht C if we want OL...but I go with a guy that I love, a guy that is sitting higher than this picks rank and is at the top of my overall board at the time as well. Julian Neal CB Arkansas is a guy I'm very high on and have been for a LONG time. A Fresno State guy his first four years that showed out in 2024 and then bet on himself going to a much harder conference in the SEC - and that bet paid off. Upped his PDs, matched his INTs, nearly doubled his tackles and if you weigh PFF grades shot his grade up nearly 10 points to a 79.5 overall. Better in zone but solid enough in man but is more than a willing tackler, I say he is a safety in a Cornerbacks body when it comes to tackling. Senior bowl measurements were at 6015 | 202lbs | 33.125 arms and 9.375

Some will argue selection him specifically over Will Lee. Lee is terrible it seems in reading and attacking when in zone calls on film, he is much better told to ignore everything except his man - with man coverages not something teams deploy a ton of, I like the much fuller and proven thing in zone calls over man. Another guy some will argue over Neal is Malik Muhammad out of Texas, I like Malik but currently he sits about 14 overall spots behind Neal, but is the next CB behind him on my positional board. Neal is at worst an upgrade corner over either of our current outside options IMO.

4.105 - A guy I'm massively high on sees Day 3 when I don't think he should...but to be there still as we tick into the 100s is too much to take and we call the Giants up and it takes more than I'd like but price of trading up. We send 4.120 | 4.129 | 7.257 to them in exchange for 4.105 and 6.192. The reason...oh a guy that I just think might be this year's Tucker Kraft type player - grit, strength, YAC, blocking and lunch pale mentality type TE to pair with Kraft for years to come. Is it a bonus type addition, yes...could it be DEADLY yes. Sam Roush TE out of Stanford simply is that guy. 6055 | 259lbs | 31 inch arms | 9.75 hands I expet will run nicely, shows a knack for understanding roles and responsibilities 100%. 117 catches over three years, but TERRIBLE/ABYSMAL quarterback play...the best TE blocker IMO in this draft. Just isn't the crazy high freak athlete like Sadiq. Kraft is being extended, Musgrave will either ride out his 2026 final contract year with us or this pick could even see us move him for a 7th or something (I'd keep him around for 2026). Roush should have ran so fast from Stanford but he didn't go the portal route, and that loyalty to me is a sign of a solid character guy I want paired with Kraft...enter our version of the Bash Brothers.

5.158 - A dream world Pat Coogan C is still there, but while some engines and even some rankers out there say he will possibly be there I personally think that is a lie. He is going to interview VERY well and when people put on the film, they're going to see a guy for years now (ND before IU) he is a starting level center in the NFL most likely. So that has me look to a DT that I think with his NT experience can and should be able to help us in a big way against the run, rookie coming in tasked with really focusing on that responsbility in early downs will limit his scope of view somewhat and likely push that entire room even...

Cole Brevard out of Texas by way of Purdue is a guy in 2024 while he was at Purdue caught my eye with how excellent he was against the run (5.5 TFLs as a NT is awesome) and he still had the gas to push pockets and create pressures. Had these sent to me but not confirmed - he comes in at 6026 | 346lbs | 33 inch arms and 9.675 hands. He has aewsome length, a mass that can wiggle and anchor, I love him for that TJ Slaton type role we lost couple years ago. He would lesson Wyatt's reps just a bit at times and likely let us focus on Wyatt's best strength which is moving that pocket and wrecking plans behind the line of scrimmage.

6.192 - The pick the Giants gave us in our trade up for Sam Roush leads to us seeing the first OL prospect help incoming. Logan Jones is my guy I was hoping at this stage would slide out of the fifth to us but doesn't. I lean into a guy to potentialy push Rhyan out of the gate and Monk off the team IMO and that is a center who started for A&M for two seasons before transferring to Kansas and continuing to do the same there in the Big12. Bryce Foster is the pick and center is his position.

He is a very strong center who is one of the most seasoned in the 2026 draft, and a guy I fully expect will generate some starts at some point in his NFL career. The question is if he can grow into that quickly or not...remember the Jake Hanson kid from Oregon I liked that just didn't pan out - I see much more promise out of Foster, he's just older prospect than Hanson was and is a pure center where Hanson was seen as that interior swing guy.

6.200 - First double up of a position happens here and it is one of my favorite guys I've outlined for Day3 target over on the Prospect thread (HERE) Ephesians Prysock CB is a 6'2' 194lb corner that has incriedble length (33+ inch arms) and plays the ball extremely well in the air. Very comfortable again in run responsibilities and at times looked like a small LB attacking ball carriers, but has the footwork and skills to cover a WR one on one. He isn't a blazer, and will need refinement but this cat has proven himself against a lot of guys and the Senior Bowl audition he showed out. Keep an eye on Prysock, IF he sees the 6th round that team is potentially finding that diamond Day3 pick IMO.

7.236 - As much as I'd love to say Cole Payton or Luke Altmyer fell to us to potentailly grab a rough but solid backup QB of the future...it doesn't play out. So instead I consider RB who the likes of a Kaelon Black might be there or Dean Connors (a Day3 RB favorite of my own)...but instead I look to feed that LB room some as it is shaping up to be a room likely a big ? after we let Quay leave and asking Cooper/McDuffie/Hopper/Johnson essentially to be the answer...Wesley Bissainthe is the name we all hear called and most of us will recognize it as the LB for the Hurricaines who is very hot or cold but who came through with some massive big play his senior year for the Hurricanes in 2025. Known for his coverage skills and sideline to sideline range he will need to show progression in his ability to play within the role or scheme of the call and excel and controlling his assignments and playing the run a touch better. He is a sure thing likely at ST given his athletic profile and experience.

7.254 Keyshawn James-Newby EDGE
This is one of my favorite raw late Day3 or prioirty UDFA guys. This dude has fought and clawed up the ranks for a variety of reasons to now be catching consideration in the NFL draft. Just a few years ago he was playing college ball at Montana Tech...played his freshman year and put up 4 sacks and 31 tackles...sophomore year led the Frontier Conference with nine sacks and got the eye of Idaho, not a big program but bigger. Goes to Idaho and in 11 games puts up 38 tackles, 7 TFLs and 5 sacks according to their website...2024 season in Idaho was named first team All Big Sky and a FCS All American just tore up the whole conference to 10 sacks on 33 pressures. Enters portal and gets a shot with New Mexico State...again not a BIG program but bigger. All he does is put up 55 total pressures, 10 sacks and earned a 93 pass rush grade (PFF) a 93.3 true pass set pass rush grade (PFF) a 24.1 pass rush win rate (insane) and a 71.5 run defense grade.

The question isn't if there is something there, it's just what and how much more is there...is this merely the next step in his continued proving he belongs...or is he finally in too big of a body of water...


In summary the draft sees us add:

Derrick Moore Edge out of Michigan
Julian Neal CB out of Arkansas by way of Fresno State
Sam Roush TE out of Stanford
Cole Brevard iDL out of Texas by way of Purdue and Penn State
Bryce Foster C out of Kansas State by way of Texas A&M
Ephesians Prysock CB out of Washington by way of Arizona
Wesley Bissainteh LB out of Miami
Keyshawn James-Newby out of New Mexico St by way of Idaho and Montana Tech
 
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Heyjoe4

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SOrry this isn't ready, can be deleted or as I build it out over lunch hour I'll paste it in here. was meant to be a working thread and instead of keeping it working I posted it prematurely.
Looking forward to it, along with any summary comments you have about the draft as a whole and where there is strength or weakness at the position group levels.
 

AmishMafia

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Thanks for the work on this, the write-ups are interesting. I hope we dont wait till day 3 for IDL. It's a loaded draft for day 2 picks there and we should be able to get a talented run stuffer on day 2. I think the same can be said for the LB position. It remains to be seen how the addition of Gannon will affect our needs. He may see a big gap in necessary skills by our LBs not named Cooper for what he wants them to do.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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Thanks for the work on this, the write-ups are interesting. I hope we dont wait till day 3 for IDL. It's a loaded draft for day 2 picks there and we should be able to get a talented run stuffer on day 2. I think the same can be said for the LB position. It remains to be seen how the addition of Gannon will affect our needs. He may see a big gap in necessary skills by our LBs not named Cooper for what he wants them to do.
I as well would love adding a iDL sooner - and Golday is a dynamite LB that if you hear us pick him with our first pick folks should be very happy.

Primarily the thought was operating under the assumption we have a DL vet of some kind coming in, BUT we also have to remember we aren't losing anyone in the interior - now in the same breath we have to remember they were underwhelming as a whole last year. Can Nazir progress...can Wooden and Brooks be less a roller coaster and more a consistency...Wyatt stay healthy...honestly if all that happens is Wyatt stays healthy this group can hold serve, but progression is needed for sure. If Lee Hunter or Christen Miller is there I don't hesitate....shoot I'd even with more film and interview prospect bump Jackson or Corleone could be guys to consider at 52 as both are likely gone by our next pick - but Corleone is shorter than the length typical to see success despite being one of the best run stuffers in college...Jackson is a guy I really love and think could immediately bolster our front but just not quite there and I considered a mild reach. I don't like forcing picks positionally...and it honestly ate me up trading away two top 150s for Roush essentially...but if you get even Tucker Kraft light version, that is haymaker for this offense now and into the future of his rookie contract.

You brought up LB, another Day 3 guy I really like to keep eye on is Boettcher from Oregon. If you want a Day 2 crush my guy is 1,000% Jacob Rodriguez...I think might be the safest pick in the draft after you get past the first round.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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Thanks for the work on this, the write-ups are interesting. I hope we dont wait till day 3 for IDL. It's a loaded draft for day 2 picks there and we should be able to get a talented run stuffer on day 2. I think the same can be said for the LB position. It remains to be seen how the addition of Gannon will affect our needs. He may see a big gap in necessary skills by our LBs not named Cooper for what he wants them to do.

Oh to expound..."loaded" could mean a slew of things. I don't necessarily like it as much as many others BUT a big part of that is because I personally believe in the first 50 picks we see 5 go for sure, if not before the 40th pick. Woods / Banks / McDonald / Hunter and Miller all should be gone and if any of them is there for us there are VERY few guys I would write down in that scenario.

That leaves the likes of guys like Corleone (atypically short in height and reach), Orange, Jackson as the only surefire Day2 guys left....and I think the tier drop is sginificant after Hunter and Miller to these three.

After them you have Gill-Howard (Injury stole 2025 mostly from him but massive potential), Keenan, Halton, Regis...

The issue GB has is we need that biggun, not just another 290-305 type build, we need that front plug. Which is one reason Brevard fits beautifully if we don't pick someone sooner. He is on many NT lists top 5 if not top 3 for guys pictured as that being their role.
 

Heyjoe4

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Updated. Apologies for the confusion initially.
Thanks for the work you put into this, including commentary. Certainly predicting the draft entails some luck, but mostly preparedness by the GM and his staff.
 

Capitol 8805

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Nice mock draft and commentary. I truly appreciate the time, research, and effort that goes into this.
 

Heyjoe4

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Oh to expound..."loaded" could mean a slew of things. I don't necessarily like it as much as many others BUT a big part of that is because I personally believe in the first 50 picks we see 5 go for sure, if not before the 40th pick. Woods / Banks / McDonald / Hunter and Miller all should be gone and if any of them is there for us there are VERY few guys I would write down in that scenario.

That leaves the likes of guys like Corleone (atypically short in height and reach), Orange, Jackson as the only surefire Day2 guys left....and I think the tier drop is sginificant after Hunter and Miller to these three.

After them you have Gill-Howard (Injury stole 2025 mostly from him but massive potential), Keenan, Halton, Regis...

The issue GB has is we need that biggun, not just another 290-305 type build, we need that front plug. Which is one reason Brevard fits beautifully if we don't pick someone sooner. He is on many NT lists top 5 if not top 3 for guys pictured as that being their role.
Brevard sounds like he may be an answer to the need for a wide-bodied run stopper. Gluten will need to consider FA for CBs, DL, maybe OL again but I doubt that he uses FA on the OL.

It would be nice if he could do with the CB group what he did to the Safeties a few years ago - signed McKinney and drafted Williams and Bullard (Bullard is techically the slot corner, but has the size to play S.).
 
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tynimiller

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Brevard sounds like he may be an answer to the need for a wide-bodied run stopper. Gluten will need to consider FA for CBs, DL, maybe OL again but I doubt that he uses FA on the OL.

It would be nice if he could do with the CB group what he did to the Safeties a few years ago - signed McKinney and drafted Williams and Bullard (Bullard is techically the slot corner, but has the size to play S.).

I think that could play out...but at least I don't have a ton of UFAs that I love the idea of....but the cost of anyone could make it of value and me a supporter. I'll try posting some UFA outside CBs for folks to be familiar with or @Dantés could cuz he breaks that down really well.
 
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tynimiller

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Nice mock draft and commentary. I truly appreciate the time, research, and effort that goes into this.

I have a problem...truly. The time I spend on draft prospects really should mean I am getting paid by a staff somewhere LOL

Admittance is the first step to recovery right @Pokerbrat2000
 
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tynimiller

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One thing I think you have to sit back and reflect on a draft is the good, the bad and how to respond:

Good - The offense is losing Doubs, but in this draft you play to MLF's preference of 12 personnel by adding a TE that will allow Kraft to not always have to be the one when needed to stay home and you open up very deadly TE heavy playbook that you simply couldn't deploy with Musgrave. This draft also strengthens an edge that is seeing Enagbare leave and Gary decline and a Parsons not present for awhile. It also adds some CB play that could at minimum push Valentine and Nixon to play better and they weren't terrible, but dangit if they just seem blah.

Bad - In the set up I stated we added someone...and depending who that is this isn't actually that bad, but it sure would have been nice if we added a touch higher prospect along the interior defense...we also are looking to Hopper or the rookie to be that third LB with Quay gone and McDuffie and Cooper the main two....that could backfire.

How to respond - Looking for bargains in veteran UFAs at DL still and LB in my opinion....offensively a swing iOL would be beneficial as well.
 
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Good stuff @tyni. I personally like the ideas. It’s given me some ideas with a few of these players as far as looking at them closer. Thanks.

I would add that in this draft in particular it was a wise move grabbing a pair of CB’s. It’s a position of need, both starters are in m contract years and it’s one of the 2 thickest position groups. The consensus clumps at CB seems to overlap our natural picks which helps.

One other area that might be tempting is WR, but not until day 3. It’s a surplus crop of WR’s through the middle rounds and very good chance we’ll see solid mid round prospect (similar to how Doubs was) slipping into that #175 overall neighborhood. My hope is that we do 1 small trade back several spots if our guy isn’t there at #52 (similar to where we traded back for Reed) Gaining a later RD5 to early RD6 option.
 

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I think that could play out...but at least I don't have a ton of UFAs that I love the idea of....but the cost of anyone could make it of value and me a supporter. I'll try posting some UFA outside CBs for folks to be familiar with or @Dantés could cuz he breaks that down really well.
I just recall how truly bad the Safety group (Amos, Savage) was before the arrival of McKinney and the drafting of Williams and Bullard. I find it easier at times to be critical of personnel moves that flop - but Gluten did an amazing job re-imagining the S group. More often than not, his instincts in FA have been spot on.

Fingers crossed he can work that magic with the CBs.

And yeah, if you and Dantes have some UFA CBs for consideration that would be great. Thanks to both of you.
 

Heyjoe4

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One thing I think you have to sit back and reflect on a draft is the good, the bad and how to respond:

Good - The offense is losing Doubs, but in this draft you play to MLF's preference of 12 personnel by adding a TE that will allow Kraft to not always have to be the one when needed to stay home and you open up very deadly TE heavy playbook that you simply couldn't deploy with Musgrave. This draft also strengthens an edge that is seeing Enagbare leave and Gary decline and a Parsons not present for awhile. It also adds some CB play that could at minimum push Valentine and Nixon to play better and they weren't terrible, but dangit if they just seem blah.

Bad - In the set up I stated we added someone...and depending who that is this isn't actually that bad, but it sure would have been nice if we added a touch higher prospect along the interior defense...we also are looking to Hopper or the rookie to be that third LB with Quay gone and McDuffie and Cooper the main two....that could backfire.

How to respond - Looking for bargains in veteran UFAs at DL still and LB in my opinion....offensively a swing iOL would be beneficial as well.
This is an interesting suggestion on a TE heavy playbook that isn't possible with Musgrave. Musgrave is a solid receiving threat, but not much more. His blocking is weak, and his YAC almost non-existent. So I see the need to beef up TE this offseason - and as you note - it would help ease some of the defensive pressure Kraft would face. It also works well for the WRs.

There have been some comments lamenting the likely loss of Gary. IMO Gary was never an impact player at Edge (he was certainly above average) and he seems to be declining. It's best to part ways sooner than later with guys at that point. With a healthy Parsons back and continued improvement from Cooper and McDuffie, the D is not gonna miss Gary, Walker, and Engabare as much. I also see more use of S Williams on blitz and even running downs.

There has also been some talk about getting Kenny Clark back. I don't know how he fared in Dallas last season. He's getting near the end of his career. If he has even one more year of above average play, bring him back.
 
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tynimiller

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This is an interesting suggestion on a TE heavy playbook that isn't possible with Musgrave. Musgrave is a solid receiving threat, but not much more. His blocking is weak, and his YAC almost non-existent. So I see the need to beef up TE this offseason - and as you note - it would help ease some of the defensive pressure Kraft would face. It also works well for the WRs.

There have been some comments lamenting the likely loss of Gary. IMO Gary was never an impact player at Edge (he was certainly above average) and he seems to be declining. It's best to part ways sooner than later with guys at that point. With a healthy Parsons back and continued improvement from Cooper and McDuffie, the D is not gonna miss Gary, Walker, and Engabare as much. I also see more use of S Williams on blitz and even running downs.

There has also been some talk about getting Kenny Clark back. I don't know how he fared in Dallas last season. He's getting near the end of his career. If he has even one more year of above average play, bring him back.

Strongly disagree on Gary never being an impact player....that dude was a BEAST in 2021, 2022 and honestly 2023 to a degree. 2024 was abysmal for him in comparison to past and 2025 was a growth of his issues which is primarily centered around his body isn't allowing him to win in a number of ways like it used to, his quickness and speed burst is gone. Crazy thing is he is still a very good edge...I mean 60 total pressures in a season is no slouch, but he just isn't matching his pay right now. I mean Enagbare saw 521 snaps in 2025 and created only 25 pressures - 1 per 20+ snaps. Gary created a pressure every 11+
 

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I think pressures given are not all the same. They are probably all counted as 1 but some actually affect the throw and then a lot of times the rusher is just getting close but the QB was already throwing anyway and wasn't really affected. I kind of think Gary had a bunch of those latter ones. jmo
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I think pressures given are not all the same. They are probably all counted as 1 but some actually affect the throw and then a lot of times the rusher is just getting close but the QB was already throwing anyway and wasn't really affected. I kind of think Gary had a bunch of those latter ones. jmo

So the easiest way to track it with as little subjectivity as possible is pressures fall into three categories; sack, hit, hurry. Gary historical percentages fall like this:

One of these is Gary the other Parsons (bottom). Now keep in mind Parsons is widely considered one of the best in the league, and arguably ever in his young career....

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Gary actually operates relatively similar to Parsons, just doesn't create as high of a pressure per snap rate:
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So a sack is a pressure. I would think they are two separate things. Hurry would obviously be the most subjective. With no distinction between actually affecting the throw/route or not. Just from watching, I would say Gary gets a bunch of hurries w/o actually affecting the throw.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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So a sack is a pressure. I would think they are two separate things. Hurry would obviously be the most subjective. With no distinction between actually affecting the throw/route or not. Just from watching, I would say Gary gets a bunch of hurries w/o actually affecting the throw.

PFF wouldn't apply a hurry unless had the qb held onto the ball impact was immenent. I've watched enough All22 film to know and then compared to Pressure numbers it really seems to never be awarded just for beating your man or getting in the area maybe...it is a case of the QB throws it or hit/sack is going to happen.
 
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tynimiller

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Just FTR I don't know what the normal or league average is from say the top 100 pressure guys as far as breakdown of sacks, hits, hurries....it would be an interesting thing to maybe pull the data and write formula for....maybe sometime.
 

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My guess is some players benefit statwise from the way hurries are given. Probably helps around contract time even if it doesn't actually help during a game. But that's the GMs job figuring that out. My belief is you can have an accurate feeling about that w/o relying on pff
 
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tynimiller

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My guess is some players benefit statwise from the way hurries are given. Probably helps around contract time even if it doesn't actually help during a game. But that's the GMs job figuring that out. My belief is you can have an accurate feeling about that w/o relying on pff

LOL It isn't just PFF, any stat analytical place tracks it, most are fairly consistent - and most inhouse organizations track it as well, I have heard many do go deeper and judge a pressure as impactful or nonimpactful. A nonimpactful pressure would be one where it seems the QB doesn't even see a guy coming due to being behind them...or it maybe he sees him but his feet and throwing motion doesn't appear impacted in any way shape or form on the play...but if it appears rushed or they prepared for contact after the throw, that shows they were impacted by the pressure as they knew not only presence but impact was going to occur after throw.

None of this is arguing Gary is amazing for anyone reading this either. I do think when you watch the tape and film and even dig into the analytics, he's not nearly as bad as many envision but everyone is right that he is underperforming his contract figure though without a doubt.
 
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None of this is arguing Gary is amazing for anyone reading this either. I do think when you watch the tape and film and even dig into the analytics, he's not nearly as bad as many envision but everyone is right that he is underperforming his contract figure though without a doubt.
Yes. That’s where I’m at on Gary. For myself if he was $18-20Mil annual I’m on board. It’s more I just don’t think he’s living up to $24mil+ value.

Meaning if I could scrape that pure $24mil average and invest it elsewhere I’d do it. Obviously it does not work that way though. Also it’s always about who’s going to replace him. A rotation of Cox Jr and Oliver or Sorrell might be risky. Although on a 1/2 season sample Cox Jr was basically playing Rashan level before his injury.

The decision isn’t mine to make but I think reasonable middle ground is a contract that would keep Gary intact for 2yrs, while trimming his $$ impact around $5mil annual. A 3yr restructure with a contract out in year 3.
3X$58.5mil 50% guaranteed. Maybe throw him yearly incentive of $250K for reaching 10 Sacks and $250K for each one thereafter. Extend it through playoffs.
 
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