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The Point of the Draft Picks

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by Dantés, Apr 24, 2020.

  1. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I'm going to suggest a thought at to what Gutekunst is doing in this draft, and people can decide for themselves if they think I'm right. But right up front, this isn't a defense, it's a stab at an explanation. You could agree with what I think here and still think that this was a bad approach.

    Gute is collecting the pieces that LaFleur wants/needs to run his offense

    Greg Cosell was on with Ross Tucker today talking about the first round. He said that he believes Jordan Love to be an ideal fit (stylistically-- obviously we don't know yet if he will be good) for LaFleur's offense. He suggested that perhaps LaFleur was asking for an heir apparent who would do a more faithful job to run the offense as it was called, rather than ad lib or go off-script. I think that's a good guess at the motivation, as well as just the realities that Rodgers turns 37 this year and they must really like Love.

    Before coming to Green Bay, LaFleur's offense really started to click in Tennessee when they got Derrick Henry rolling in the running game. The presence of a hulking, one cut runner with breakaway speed provided the foundation for the heavy play action offense that he wants to run. In terms of style, size, and athleticism, A.J. Dillon is as close to Henry as you will find anywhere. I am not saying he's as good-- I don't know that. But he is a shockingly close facsimile, who we can guess he wants to use in the same way.

    One of LaFleur's "cousins" in his coaching family tree is Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan uses a fullback far more than normal in today's NFL. One of the ways he's so effective with it is by employing a guy, Kyle Juszczyk, who is a legitimate threat as a receiver, but who can also block the run. This allows him to run or pass effectively out of the same personnel, without subbing out and telegraphing run/pass to the defense. LaFleur tried to turn Vitale into that guy last year and it didn't work. He wasn't that good of a blocker and he didn't excel in his opportunities to win in the passing game. Josiah Deguara profiles to that role.

    So again, I'm not telling anyone this is a great draft, a terrible draft, one they should be excited for, or one they should quit the Packers over. But it went off script early and has stayed that way and I think I know why they've made the decisions that they've made.
     
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  2. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I understand your points and I believe it is a pretty bad draft.
     
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  3. speakhands

    speakhands Cheesehead

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    It's gotten to the point that, unless you delude yourself into believing that Gutekunst is a secret genius who not only bucks conventional football wisdom but knows more than basically everyone in evaluating prospect talent, this is a monumentally bad first three picks.

    We have:

    Round 1: A project quarterback who went to a small school and, despite running plays with single reads most of the time, still telegraphed his throws, was late on deliveries, and was constantly intercepted. Okay, fine. Maybe he can be groomed into a GOAT. I've personally never seen that sort of turnaround for a QB prospect with flaws that are that glaring, but...oh, well. He was projected as an upside third rounder generally. Available at this pick were the likes Patrick Queen, Tee Higgins, and Denzel Mims.

    Round 2: A backup running back with great size/speed but very little in the way of vision, elusiveness, or pass catching ability. He was projected as a Day 3 pick. Available at this point was Josh Jones, Logan Wilson, and Zack Baum.

    Round 3: A relatively unathletic and undersized TE/H-back hybrid. This one is the straw that breaks the camel's back. Not only was he a consensus Day 3 (AT BEST) prospect: he has very little upside. He's not big, he's not fast, and he hasn't shown the ability to catch in traffic. He's, at best, a rich man's Danny Vitale. This pick reminds me of Richard Rodgers, but at least two areas of need had been addressed when we took Richard Rodgers. Available here was Malik Harrison and Matt Peart.



    Ultimately, I think having yet another shockingly stupid draft should put to rest the absurd deference to GM's by virtue of them being GM's. The best all-around draft class of my lifetime was the 2000 class (Franks, Clifton, Tauscher, KGB, Diggs) by the much-maligned Mike Sherman. He wasn't above criticism despite that class (and getting Javon Walker, Najeh Davenport, and Aaron Kampmann two years later), but he frankly didn't get much because he didn't make cutesy dumb picks.
     
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  4. lambeaulambo

    lambeaulambo Cheesehead

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    Is it possible for all three picks to be successful? Absolutely. Does the GM and Head Coach have a vision? I think so.
     
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  5. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    Seriously? None of these guys are remotely “unathletic”. Josiah himself was .06 sec off the 2nd fastest time by a TE at this combine. He also put up 25 reps which was #1 and scored was ranked between #1 to #6 or better on 5/6 events he tested in

    As far as QBs. Love was absolutely NOT a consensus 3rd round grade. Several sports analysts had him going to GB at #30 overall. Several more thought he might go second half of the 1st day and another even had him as high as #6 overall (which was a reach). Without getting into Anomalies he would be gone inside the top #50 on many boards. In the QB class of possible pre-day 3 choices.. he’s the 2nd most athletic, behind only Herbert.

    AJ Dillon ran a fast 4.53-40 yard at the combine and incredible 41” vertical. Dillon is 247 pounds and jumped within 1” of Henry Ruggs III! He rushed for 3 consecutive 1000+ seasons against stacked boxes. When they knew he was running the opposition still couldn’t stop him. He was 1” shy of Isaiah Simmons 11 foot in the long jump!!! He wouldn't be a backup if we didn’t have a RB who scored 19TDs last season. GB now has one of the best 1-2 punches in the league at RB. I can’t wait to see the first 200 pound CB or 235lb LB get absolutely steamrolled in short yardage and knowing he’s coming but not realizing AJ makes Eddie Lacey look slow and light. He’s a punisher and
    finisher.

    You can argue all you want they weren’t sure needs as position picks, but trying to make them seem lesser athletes?. The combine doesn’t grade you on “small school status”, it’s a measurement against your peers from each conference and you could say in favor of the best programs.

     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
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  6. hasamikun

    hasamikun Cheesehead

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    Important to add that everyone involved is certain that Dillon is a good pass catcher. While he didnt caught many passes during his time at BC, it seems like he had a really strong performance at the combine showcasing his catch abilities.

    I really like this pick tbh. Packers now have 3 good RBs with different skill sets. That combined with Deguara as a H-back, the offense will be very variable with the new personnel. This is LaFleurs offense now and while the draft hasnt been(andwont be) flashy, it will set the groundwork for the offense in the next years.
     
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  7. RRyder

    RRyder Cheesehead

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    I liked the Love pick and can understand the Dillon pick. Not nearly the guy I would've went with even if RB was the choice to go but ok I get it. A Jones is set to make big money and thats best avoided.

    But I will forever condem drafting what is effectively a "FB that can catch" in the 3rd round. Like are you ******* kidding me?
     
  8. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    I think Dantes is spot on

    People forget Love may have gone Top 15 if he came out last year.

    The Dillon pick is great. A Stephen Jackson or Derrick Henry type of player

    A FB/H back in the 3rd round is obviously a reach but can anyone argue the "value"

    Of guys like:
    John Kuhn
    William Henderson

    And their impact on past Packers teams???

    That said, I still wouldn't have picked them with a 3rd. A 4th or 5th sure
     
  9. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    The point of these draft picks is to plan for a future that we shouldn't be planning for (yet). You know when Gute became GM i thought 'here finally is a man who is interested in getting the Packers over the hump, who is not afraid to go all in and do what it takes to get Arod one more SB.' And then this? In a historically great WR class we are waiting till round 5 (or later) to draft one? I am stunned.

    And honestly, I have been an advocate of drafting a complimentary 'bruizing' piece to Jones for ages. The Falcons and Saints have been recent evidence that having a strong one two punch can do miracles for your QB and overall offense. But drafting one in the second is a luxury we can't afford, especially after we used our first and fourth rounder to draft a backup QB.

    Same old stubborn Packers, completely neglecting (or at this point, denying) the weaknesses on our roster.
     
  10. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Even if any of that is true Gutekunst committed a cardinal sin for a general manager no matter what.

    Either it was a colossal mistake to extend Rodgers (what's the point if there's no desire to tailor the offense to his strengths) or it was a terrible decision to hire MLF as head coach.

    In addition it seems like he forgot that the Packers were within one game of making it to the Super Bowl by not selecting any prospect to improve their chances for next year.

    On top of that, both Dillon and Deguara most likely would have been available today.
     
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  11. Patriotplayer90

    Patriotplayer90 Cheesehead

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    The franchise has no idea what they're doing. Trade all valuable assets who want to win and be the mediocre franchise you want to be.
     
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  12. Sanguine camper

    Sanguine camper Cheesehead

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    I'm not sold that the Shanahan Rams are the blueprint for success. They made a nice run to the Super Bowl and then scored 3 points. Last year d coordinators adjusted to their offense and they finished out of the playoffs. When you have one of the best qb's of all time, why not get him some talent instead of going to a run heavy sceme that minimizes the flaws of a mediocre qb?
     
  13. Sanguine camper

    Sanguine camper Cheesehead

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    Either Gute really is another stupid Cleveland Brown's GM, or he thinks this roster sucks, and has no chance to contend and is rebuilding. This draft appears to be the latter where they are ignoring Rodgers talents and building a run heavy offense for the future. Unfortunately, the o line is better at pass blocking.
     
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  14. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    Come on, trust me, I understand THIS draft not lining up with fans expectations at all but stuff like this drives me nuts. Outside of Jimmy Graham being paid too much for only decent numbers He's had a decent and a very good draft and absolutely nailed 3 top flight Free agent players that absolutely fit their production and their contract. If you think he has no idea what he's doing, you're a fool.

    I get that draft picks are leaving people scratching their heads, that happens when reality doesn't match up with your expectations, but is it because Gute has no idea what he's doing, or you don't have any idea what he's doing? There's a difference.
     
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  15. thisisnate

    thisisnate Cheesehead

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    Well, I mean Lafleur needs to still be our coach in 4 years if this is to make sense. It's harder to keep your job when you ignore current needs completely.
     
  16. Patriotplayer90

    Patriotplayer90 Cheesehead

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    Trust you? You've spewed this garbage for years, as have all misinformed Packers fans. Drafting 6th round talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds doesn't work. Being a terrible team in terms of drafting and acquiring talent in free agency doesn't work. Enjoy the 2 SBs and all of the wasted years with HOF QBs
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
  17. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    Gute nailed free agent talent acquisition but his drafting has not yielded much in the way of results. 2018 has yielded one starter so far and a receiver who figures in as a number 4. 2019 he picked up a promising safety a good young guard and the rest we are still waiting on. Oh and he picked up a backup OLB with the 12th pick, a workout warrior who wasn't that good in college.
     
  18. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    It's not just some random packer fan vs Gute here. It's 90% of the Packers fan base, of draft pundits and of sports analysts vs Gute. No one has a clue what Gute is doing here. That makes him either a genius or a fool if purely judged on this draft.
     
  19. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    90% of pundits and fans prove themselves to be idiots every year, year after year LOL. But they never have to live with their silly prognostications and probably have made a million and a half ofther silly decisions that actually have affected their lives by the time the next draft rolls around they have forgotten how wrong they were the year before.

    Mock after Mock completely blown up and wrong every single year. According to fans, Rodgers was a bad pick, Nick Collins? man was Ted crucified for that one. Not picking Shazor as safety from MI one year? man people were pissed when he was still istting there in the 3rd and they just knew he was a 1st round talent. I think he went undrafted actually and never did anything in the NFL. People didn't like Kenny Clark actually, that wasn't that long ago, I remember it. People were pissed Gute traded back and then he traded back up for Jaire. Most fans had no clue. But they remember they wanted Watt and not King so they think they're genius.

    I think it should be obvious they thought our offense was lacking certain players to really make it work. It wasn't the players YOU( general you) thought so we all think it was stupid.

    I happen to think that RB can make an offense go and use Jones to his strengths as a big play home run hitter. But i'm sorry, nobody still lines up to stop him. We start pounding a rock for 4-5 yards a pop even when they line up to stop it, play action and everything else is going to be opened up tremendously.

    We all wanted a WR, well a consistent bruising RB can shade safeties, make DB's move. Get linebackers moving a certain way hard, just by the action int eh backfield and we have the QB that see's all of that. This RB can influence this offense a lot more than people are giving him credit for.

    Oh, and one more add on, I don't think it's a secret what Gute is trying to do. it doesn't line up with what people wanted him to do, but It's obvious they're going to try and create an identity on offense, that's different from what we were expecting.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
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  20. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    You can name all the players you want that were successful and that were drafted earlier than people expected, and for each one I can counter a player that was considered to be a reach and also turned out to be one.

    Sure I get it, us petty fans and pundits will never understand the complexities and nuances that are needed to be a successful GM. And sure, it is not a given that prospects which are deemed first rounders will be actual stars. But there definitely is some truth to be found in the average of a multitude of pundit opinions (and fans copy these opinions), making the consensus higher ranked prospects in general safer. It's why the market beats out the individual investor, every time.

    Also, I am not arguing with you on Dillon. All though I find spending a 2nd rounder on a RB is a luxury we can't afford right now, I have been saying for the past 2 years that a good 1-2 punch at RB will probably do wonders for Arod/our offense. But the other 2 selections have simply been mindboggling, especially since we have so many other needs. A stagnant passing offense and leaking run defense come to mind. Or did Gute forget what happened vs the Niners twice this year?

    Therefore I come to the conclusion that this is the worst Packer draft I have seen in my years as a fan. I am hoping that Gute can prove me wrong on it, but as of right now I highly doubt it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
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  21. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    1. I'm going to need you to explain that.

    2. If (and please note that word-- I'm not saying this is a foregone conclusion) Dillon and Deguara allow LaFleur to more efficiently run the offense that he was hired to run, then they will have improved their chances. As I've said many times, the biggest issues on offense last year were not personnel related, but were a result of the scheme not being operated correctly.

    3. And based on what exactly? There were a number of backs that the media projected to go later that went on day 2. Forget about making it to #175, Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Darrynton Evans were both gone before the Packers even picked in the 3rd round. Nine running backs went on day 2. The league liked these guys more than the media's projections. The Patriots also traded up into the 3rd to take Dalton Keene, who was the most comparable player to Deguara and was projected to go in the same range. Did no one tell BB that these guys "most like would have been available today?"
     
  22. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    It's hilarious to me that you don't even know who coaches which team, but you're qualified to decide whether these picks or approach were good or not.
     
  23. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    It's all about Love. If he hits, it will have been a great draft almost regardless of everything else. If he flops, it will have been a terrible draft almost regardless of everything else.
     
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  24. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    Gutekunst essentially confirmed a great deal of your theory Dantés. Said that he was shocked Dillon was available at 62. Felt the value of the pick was strong based on the work they have put in. Alluded to having a 3 man attack running the football.

    Sees Deguara being moved all over the field to help strengthen MLFs ability to run the ball and play pass off of that. Again alluded to high grades internally.

    When pushed about receiver, said that the board didn’t fall that way. When asked if he considered moving up, he said there were things they explored, but a lot of scenarios involved dealing future picks (wonder why :rolleyes: )

    Didn’t seem very committal on them having much of an impact right away in 2020. Said you always have to weigh the needs of now vs the vision for the future.

    When asked if he has spoke with Rodgers, he said he had a conversation with him Friday night. That’s the extent of the detail. :roflmao:

    Said he feels great about the offensive help they were able to get in the first rounds and that they would potentially look into trying to address receiver tomorrow. So once again, shopping for receivers on the 70% off rack.

    I think Dillon and Deguara could in theory make the offense more well rounded, but still feel as if other areas should have been addressed first. And I’m still steamed about Love. That handicapped the Packers ability to add more for 2020.
     
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  25. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    How was Gute to know Rodgers level of play was going to drop off so quickly? Typically a QB of his level lasts another few years.
    AR was one of the best of all times. We can argue about the degree, but I r hink all fans realize Rodgers' play has been dropping the last few years.

    His draft so far is very Belichick like. Belichick is always looking for players that have a special trait. He will design even a few plays for a player to maximize that trait. All 3 of our picks have some very interesting traits.
    Man, as I was reading all the posts above I was composing a comprehensive post. Your post is almost identical with all the same points. Well done!
     
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