The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Firethorn1001]

I don't know why Miami would be willing to trade for Jones. It sounds like they might already be willing to pay him top dollar. If I were them I would just wait for The Pack to release him. What am I missing?

If the Packers franchise tag Jones, then effectively he is with the Packers for the 2021 season. Miami could then just make a trade so then the rights to Jones transfer to them and they aren't bidding against an open market.

In the last few years - Clowney (2 players and a 3rd), Dee Ford (2nd), Frank Clark (1st, 3rd, 2nd for Clark/3) and Ngakoue (traded for a 2/5) have been tag and trades.

Seems like for Jones, I'd think the minimum desire would be a 3rd in 2021 (which would net the probable compensatory pick one year early). Maybe a trade up from 29 to 18 in the 1st and a low end pick.

 

[gopkrs]

If the Packers franchise tag Jones, then effectively he is with the Packers for the 2021 season. Miami could then just make a trade so then the rights to Jones transfer to them and they aren't bidding against an open market.

In the last few years - Clowney (2 players and a 3rd), Dee Ford (2nd), Frank Clark (1st, 3rd, 2nd for Clark/3) and Ngakoue (traded for a 2/5) have been tag and trades.

Seems like for Jones, I'd think the minimum desire would be a 3rd in 2021 (which would net the probable compensatory pick one year early). Maybe a trade up from 29 to 18 in the 1st and a low end pick.

That would be good. And I suppose all or most of those were signed to longer contracts before the season started.

 

[Firethorn1001]

That would be good. And I suppose all or most of those were signed to longer contracts before the season started.

Don't think Ngakoue was. I think he was traded again mid season and is now a FA. The others were extended upon trade I believe.

 

[tynimiller]

If the Packers franchise tag Jones, then effectively he is with the Packers for the 2021 season. Miami could then just make a trade so then the rights to Jones transfer to them and they aren't bidding against an open market.

In the last few years - Clowney (2 players and a 3rd), Dee Ford (2nd), Frank Clark (1st, 3rd, 2nd for Clark/3) and Ngakoue (traded for a 2/5) have been tag and trades.

Seems like for Jones, I'd think the minimum desire would be a 3rd in 2021 (which would net the probable compensatory pick one year early). Maybe a trade up from 29 to 18 in the 1st and a low end pick.

Yeah negotiations for Jones if just a straight trade would need to be a 3rd IMO or equivalent package as that is what we'd get most likely in comp next season's draft.

Now if the Dolphins would tell Gute we will do our #114 in the 4th PLUS swap our 1st rounders with you (18 for our 29) that'd be slick and instantly makes the liklihood of a top CB more in the realm of possibility or a WR like Bateman or Marshall that isn't making it to 29 most likely...or perhaps it puts us in the game for a higher end Tackle.

BUT I don't see that happening. They'd be more inclined to do one of their 2nds and a later rounder before swapping that high IMO. They have 4 picks in the top 50...that is some serious draft equity to do whatever they want.

 

[thequick12]

Yeah negotiations for Jones if just a straight trade would need to be a 3rd IMO or equivalent package as that is what we'd get most likely in comp next season's draft.

Now if the Dolphins would tell Gute we will do our #114 in the 4th PLUS swap our 1st rounders with you (18 for our 29) that'd be slick and instantly makes the liklihood of a top CB more in the realm of possibility or a WR like Bateman or Marshall that isn't making it to 29 most likely...or perhaps it puts us in the game for a higher end Tackle.

BUT I don't see that happening. They'd be more inclined to do one of their 2nds and a later rounder before swapping that high IMO. They have 4 picks in the top 50...that is some serious draft equity to do whatever they want.

I was surprised but supposedly Packers only gonna be in line for a 4th round compensatory for Jones. That was assuming he signed for 4 years 46 million. Forget who did the projection but it seems they are pretty good at it. As far as the compensatorys go. They also had the packers in line for a 4th for linsley but not recieving it because they also had the Packers signing will Fuller for 5 years 87 million. Which to me is way too much for fuller...

 

[tynimiller]

I was surprised but supposedly Packers only gonna be in line for a 4th round compensatory for Jones. That was assuming he signed for 4 years 46 million. Forget who did the projection but it seems they are pretty good at it. As far as the compensatorys go. They also had the packers in line for a 4th for linsley but not recieving it because they also had the Packers signing will Fuller for 5 years 87 million. Which to me is way too much for fuller...

AND.....I don't trust this source now.

 

[Firethorn1001]

it because they also had the Packers signing will Fuller for 5 years 87 million. Which to me is way too much for fuller...

No.. no. Just all sorts of no.

WR money of that nature is going to be earmarked for Adams. They aren't going to carry Rodgers, Bak, Adams, Fuller, Clark, Smith at 60% of their cap and with Alexander's contract coming up fast.

 

[Firethorn1001]

BUT I don't see that happening. They'd be more inclined to do one of their 2nds and a later rounder before swapping that high IMO. They have 4 picks in the top 50...that is some serious draft equity to do whatever they want.

If trading Jones netted them a 2 and something, I'd be happy. Granted, I like Jones, but I just don't see him back at the expected cost.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't consider the Packers franchise tagging Jones to trade him at a later point to be a smart idea by any means.

First of all they would have to create at least $8 million of cap space to fit his contract under the cap at the start of the league year for a player they don't plan on holding on to.

In addition why would another team, knowing the Packers need the cap space saved by trading Jones, offer fair market value???

The smart thing to do is let him walk.

 

[Mondio]

The odds of a sign and trade are pretty dang small. first they have to create the space just to offer him the contract, then he has to actually sign the franchise tag tender too. Then there has to be a team wanting to trade draft picks and give him a big contract. Who wouldn't love to get a 2nd round pick for a player we're losing? I think the real play is he just moves on. I don't think there are any teams looking to trade high picks for the rights to sign him to a long term contract. and GB doesn't have enough room to sit with him on the books until they find someone if they plan on making any other acquisitions.

 

[Firethorn1001]

By that logic then sign and trades would never happen, which isn't the case.

 

[thequick12]

With Drew Rosenhous being his agent I see no way this doesn't end in a hold out, a long term deal, or a trade. But with the tag being so low, 8 million, I don't see anyway it wouldn't be prudent to tag him.

I think hold out is by far the least likely scenario.
With trade being the most likely. And an outside chance the Packers and Jones end up figuring something out.

I don't believe there's anyway Rosenhous would allow Jones to play on the franchise tag so I don't think there's anyway his cap charge will be 8 million.

Here's why a team would trade for him...

1. They don't know that we don't wanna keep him. Because I think we do, we just don't wanna pay 15 million per year

2. If they trade for him they know he's playing for them. If he hits the open market, a team like the dolphins or jets 2 teams that have been rumored, has to compete against a bunch of other teams for his services

Both the jets and dolphins are flush with picks from previous trades and cap space I believe. This could be the perfect time to maybe get a 2nd or 3rd rounder from one of these teams that wants to pay him 15 m per

In the end if by some strike of lighting chance Jones fired Rosenhous and played on the 8 million tag. That wouldn't be the end of the world for one more shot with this team

 

[Pugger]

IMO $8M isn't too steep for a RB of his abilities. I hope we can keep him.

 

[GleefulGary]

Could we maybe change the title?

Or merge with the other Aaron Jones thread? This has already been discussed.

 

[Poppa San]

Or merge with the other Aaron Jones thread? This has already been discussed.

Done. Also found another older thread to throw in with it. Retitled. [/moderating]

 

[Mondio]

By that logic then sign and trades would never happen, which isn't the case.

Not all sign and trades are created equal. I guess it starts with the fact I don't think Jones is worth 12 or 14 million dollars on any team. He's explosive and he's also limited. he's not the workhouse and every down back I think you need to be to get those dollars. Heck, I wouldn't give them to a RB anyway these days, but i digress.

I also don't think there is any way A. Jones signs a contract to play for 8 million dollars. Just because we tag him doesn't mean he signs it. Without a bunch of teams that really think he's worth that 12-14 mark plus draft picks to get him it's kind of pointless.

I see us tagging him and end up creating a situation where nobody is happy and we're not helped. I'd rather just let him go and replace him.

 

[swhitset]

Not all sign and trades are created equal. I guess it starts with the fact I don't think Jones is worth 12 or 14 million dollars on any team. He's explosive and he's also limited. he's not the workhouse and every down back I think you need to be to get those dollars. Heck, I wouldn't give them to a RB anyway these days, but i digress.

I also don't think there is any way A. Jones signs a contract to play for 8 million dollars. Just because we tag him doesn't mean he signs it. Without a bunch of teams that really think he's worth that 12-14 mark plus draft picks to get him it's kind of pointless.

I see us tagging him and end up creating a situation where nobody is happy and we're not helped. I'd rather just let him go and replace him.

I’m not advocating that we tag him... but remember if he chooses not to sign it... he is choosing to sit out the year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

By that logic then sign and trades would never happen, which isn't the case.

Most sign and trades don't happen with the team franchise tagging a player being in cap troubles entering the offseason. In addition none of the players you listed was a running back, the position has to be factored into evaluating those moves as well though.

Here's why a team would trade for him...

1. They don't know that we don't wanna keep him. Because I think we do, we just don't wanna pay 15 million per year

2. Both the jets and dolphins are flush with picks from previous trades and cap space I believe. This could be the perfect time to maybe get a 2nd or 3rd rounder from one of these teams that wants to pay him 15 m per

1. Even if the Packers tag Jones their moves this offseason will clearly indicate if they plan to keep or trade him.

2. I highly doubt either the Jets or Dolphins will be interested in giving up any of those draft picks to pay a running back $10+ million a season when they could use one of their selections on the position.

 

[Mondio]

I’m not advocating that we tag him... but remember if he chooses not to sign it... he is choosing to sit out the year.

I'd see it as more of forcing GB to do something. We'd have to cap 8 million or whatever it is, for nothing. and for a team already tight up against it to be faced with replacing that player with 8 million or so less, we'd do something. and I don't see many teams wanting to give up picks to sign a smallish RB to big money. I don't see AJ agreeing to sign for 8 million. I think the tag in this situation is just going to poison things more between both sides and poison has carry over we don't need. They've planned for his departure, just let it happen.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Sign and trades almost never happen in the NFL. Jones is going to the highest bidder, probably Miami.

 

[thequick12]

2. I highly doubt either the Jets or Dolphins will be interested in giving up any of those draft picks to pay a running back $10+ million a season when they could use one of their selections on the position.

If they're willing to pay him alvin kamara money, which is more like 15 million per year as reported, they are probably willing to give up a nice pick to do so. Signing a guy to contract like that clearly indicates you think he's a blue player...

 

[GreenNGold_81]

If they're willing to pay him alvin kamara money, which is more like 15 million per year as reported, they are probably willing to give up a nice pick to do so. Signing a guy to contract like that clearly indicates you think he's a blue player...

This is one of those rare circumstances where I'll agree with Cap.

There are several good RB prospects in this draft. They will be cheap relative to their effective production in an offense.

Nobody will send a draft pick for an RB that they can get in free agency if they really want them. And if they miss, they'll have the chance at a great prospect in the draft thus saving money.

Sign and trades do.not.happen.

 

[gopkrs]

I would think if they get a better contract from him because the tag is for less money; then they might do it. Give up a pick I mean.

 

[McKnowledge]

As of today, 2/28/21, I think you let Jones go out and test the market. He could get overpaid on a crap team (Texans), nice contract on an ascending team (Miami or Buffalo), or sign a short team deal/accept the franchise tag with GB.

I think Jones sticking around, along with Dillon, would be a deadly combo. However, there are cheaper options (Duke Johnson) available that can approximate the skill-set of Jones.

No matter, Jones has been a great player and representative for GB and he deserves his money...unfortunately it might not be with the Packers.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If they're willing to pay him alvin kamara money, which is more like 15 million per year as reported, they are probably willing to give up a nice pick to do so.

We will have to agree to disagree on the topic.

I would think if they get a better contract from him because the tag is for less money; then they might do it. Give up a pick I mean.

A team trading for Jones would have to work out a long-term deal with him, resulting in them not saving any money compared to signing him in free agency.